The long-awaited details of the USD 12 bn IMF agreement are here: The Fund released yesterday its staff report (pdf) on Egypt’s Extended Facility Fund (EFF), complete with details on the government’s reform commitments and the Fund’s appraisal of Egypt’s current situation and the path forward. Bloomberg’s Ahmed Feteha gives a neat breakdown of the key elements of the report.
The report sees Egypt as struggling with three main interlocked problems: Rising public debt, an “urgent” balance of payments problem, and persistently low growth and high unemployment rates. Egypt’s EFF carries “significant risks” because of difficulties that are inherent in implementing reform, such as revenue shortfalls and higher-than-expected wage increases, among others, as well as external shocks.
In the medium term, the program’s monetary policy will be focusing on reducing inflation caused by the policy reforms to mid-single digits, as well as scaling down “uncomfortably high” public debt. The Fund has projected that the government’s debt will drop from 95% of the GDP in FY2015-16 to 78% in FY2020-21. By the end of the program, the IMF staff sees overall fiscal deficit reduced to less than half of its FY2015-16 level. Real GDP growth for the current FY is expected to hover around 4%.
The CBE will maintain a flexible exchange rate regime and focus on shoring up reserves by operating mainly on the buy-side once, with gross reserves expected to reach USD 33 bn by FY2018-19, and climb further to reach north of USD 37 bn in FY2020-21. In the meantime, Egypt is expected to continue cracking down on the parallel market. The Fund believes that the banking sector will be able to keep up with the transition to the new exchange regimes. The government has also vowed to remove by June the USD 50K cap on cash deposits for the import of non-priority goods, as well as the USD 100K cap on transfers abroad.
Energy subsidies, we bid you adieu: Fuel subsidies will see “significant reductions,” with the government committed to eliminating electricity subsidies altogether over the next five years. The government will couple the subsidy cuts with a general overhaul of the energy sector to modernize it, and is expected to submit a medium-term strategy by March. Meanwhile, the restoration of EGPC’s financial sustainability will also be on the government’s to-do list.
That’s not to say that the government will leave its citizens out in the cold, as an additional 1% of GDP will be spent on food subsidies and cash transfers to the poor.
The government will also implement structural reforms to boost growth and reduce unemployment through legislation such as the Industry Permits Act, which will be ready by March and the Bankruptcy Act by June, facilitating access to finance for SMEs, developing an action plan to rationalize the export-promotion regime.
When and how will Egypt be repaying the IMF? The IMF notes that Egypt’s capacity to repay the EFF is “adequate, but there are significant risks.” The proposed schedule will see the Fund reviewing Egypt’s performance since the end of December 2016 and disbursing USD 1.25 bn on March 15, after which it will disburse USD 2 bn every six months until March 15, 2019.
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Planning Minister Ashraf El Araby announced indicators and performance of key economic sectors during 1Q for the FY 2016-17 fiscal year, in a press conference following the cabinet meeting on Wednesday. Overall, economic growth for the quarter reached 3.4%, in line with the government’s target of 4% by FY 2016-17. Foreign direct investment grew to USD 1.9 bn, up from USD 1.3 bn in 1Q15-16. Imports fell to USD 13.9 bn for the quarter from USD 14.7 bn during the same period last year. The highest performing sectors include the ICT and construction sectors which grew 11.2% and 8.2% respectively, said El Araby. Tourism revenues fell 37.5%, Al Shorouk reports. Unemployment fell marginally to 12.6% from 12.8% during the same period in FY2015-16.
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M&A Watch- Nestlé’s acquisition of Caravan Marketing Company, which we covered yesterday, will be completed within six weeks, a source told Al Mal. The source says Nestlé is buying 100% of Caravan’s shares for EGP 400-500 mn. Caravan’s Chairman Amr Barakat said company sales recorded nearly EGP 500 mn in 2016. He added that CI Capital advised Caravan on the sale with Baker & McKenzie providing legal advisory. PwC reportedly advised Nestlé.
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Not a unicorn after all? Amazon and India’s Flipkart Online Services Pvt have walked away from talks to acquire Souq.com after disagreeing over price, sources told Bloomberg. Souq.com is now seeking other potential investors and is reportedly negotiating with Majid Al Futtaim. Souq.com had appointed Goldman Sachs to find buyers for a stake last year and last November, it was reported that Amazon was in talks to buy the company reportedly for a valuation of USD 1 bn.
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The court ruling against Juhayna Food Industries Chairman Safwan Thabet concerns him personally, and does not impact companies where he is a shareholder, the company said in a statement yesterday. The EGX had temporarily halted trading on Juhayna’s stock and required clarification on the impact of the decision by the Cairo Criminal Court to place Thabet on a terror watchlist and freeze his personal assets. The court ruling was handed down in absentia and Thabet was not officially notified, the statement from Juhayna explained, and he will appeal the ruling before the Court of Cassation.
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Interesting things happening elsewhere in the world: MasterCard announced it is collaborating with Pakistan’s NADRA Technologies to optimize national ID cards with electronic payments functionality. “The move will allow Pakistani citizens to carry out financial transactions and receive government disbursements by utilizing the unique 13-digit identification number of their identity card. Citizens will also be able to use their national ID to send and receive domestic and international remittances, eliminating the requirement to physically visit a bank branch or currency exchange house to meet their money transfer needs.” MasterCard will manage payment processing for transactions completed using the ID cards.
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The CBE is looking to build up the auto-feeders industry: The CBE committee looking into developing a strategy for the auto industry is focusing on diversifying and advancing components manufacturing. It’s plan: starting first with less complex components such as tires, car batteries, and windshields, and gradually working towards more advanced products such as engine parts, sources from the auto-industry development committee tell Al Mal. The committee is in talks with auto industry players and banks to discuss alternative measures.
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Cabinet strengthens the role of the Supreme Investment Council: The Ismail cabinet approved amendments to the current draft of the Investment Act in its Wednesday meeting. The amendments will require the government to run any major economic policy decisions which would affect investments past the Supreme Investment Council, according to Al Ahram. Other decisions Ismail’s cabinet made during its weekly meeting include:
- Ratifying a KWD 35 mn (USD 114.6 mn) funding agreement with the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development to establish a desalination plant in Port Said;
- Approving the amendments to the executive regulations of the University Organization Act.
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Oh happy day, oh happy day: Prosecutor General Nabil Sadek has ordered an investigation into TV host Ahmed Moussa for broadcasting leaked recordings of former Army Chief of Staff Sami Anan, saying Moussa’s action put Egypt’s national security at risk and constituted a breach of Anan’s privacy, Al Mal reports. Moussa had broadcast on his show, ‘Ala Mas’ouleety, the leaked recordings of a phone call between Anan and former vice president Mohamed El Baradei from March 2011 as “evidence” of the latter’s disdain of political and revolutionary figures during that time. We truly pray this is the beginning of the end for the creature.
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UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced the Brexit strategy on Tuesday and it looks like the negotiations might be a slog. Brits are looking to both break with the EU and discuss a new free trade agreement in just two years’ time, CNN says. The country will begin the countdown and discussions in March. But experts say the window is too tight to work out a new agreement, especially since EU officials might “want to take a hardline in negotiations” to make an example out of the UK. Prime Minister Theresa May said she is confident that both sides could come to a understanding to satisfy both sides, but added that "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain." The UK will also have to look forward to negotiating trade agreements with around 50 other countries.
Other leading international stories include Senegal impending invasion of Gambia to pressure longtime Gambian ruler President Yahya Jammeh to step down from power, the BBC reports.
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