**#1 Egypt could tap global debt market with USD 5 bn bond issue in 2019: Is Egypt’s economy resilient enough in the face of the EM apocalypse to go back to the debt market? Yes, said Finance Minister Mohamed Maait at a luncheon yesterday hosted by AmCham. Egypt’s economy is proving “resilient” in the face of EM turbulence and there are additional sources of funding to draw on if needed, he said, according to Reuters. “We are going to sell bonds in the coming months in the market. It could be USD 5 bn, plus or minus,” Maait added.

When: The government will return to the international debt market “at the appropriate time,” he said, possibly in January-March 2019. He added that the country could currently depend on planned budget support from international lenders and “if we can’t, we will take (treasury sales) with a higher cost.” His statement comes after Egypt cancelled a third treasury bond auction earlier this week as rattled EM investors demanded higher yields.

Maait didn’t mince words on the impact of the EM selloff: Maait acknowledged that Egypt faced “steep debt repayments” and that higher oil prices and that a slip of EGP could “disturb” Egypt’s goal of reducing its budget deficit to 8.4% in FY2018-19, from 9.8% last year. But he remained optimistic: “Until now our economy is able to deal with the consequences of this negative effect,” Maait said. “I believe that our economy is resilient, I believe that our economy is well diversified … We hope that in the coming few months we see a different environment.”

Cue the state privatization program: The government would evaluate how to proceed with the second phase of the state privatization program in January, said Maait, according to Reuters. He reassured attendees that the state is pushing ahead with five stake sales on the EGX this year, two in October (AMOC and Eastern Tobacco), two in November and one in December. “The five companies we decided to work on, we decided to see how it would go,” he said, adding that Egypt would then see whether it could work with strategic investors for further sales.

No more gas imports after October? Egypt may not have to import gas after October as a number of Egypt’s concessions come online, Maait said, according to Al Shorouk. While he wasn’t specific, this could imply that a gas tender in October could be the last one.

NI Capital looking for bankers to lead ACCH stake sale: State-owned investment bank NI Capital issued a tender yesterday that will see it hire a manager for the sale of additional stake from the Alexandria Containers & Cargo Handling (ACCH) on the EGX this year, the bank’s CEO Ashraf Ghazaly said, Youm7 reports. He did not reveal the names of the banks who were invited to join the tender. The government had hired HSBC to manage the sale of shares from the Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (AMOC) and EFG Hermes to take on the Eastern Company transaction.

On a related note, Eastern Company announced yesterday that it will be executing a 5:1 stock split on 27 September, bringing its par value down to EGP 1 from EGP 5, according to an EGX filing (pdf). Eastern’s issued capital will remain the same at EGP 2.25 bn. The EGX’s board of directors had approved a decision in July that allows listed companies to split their stocks as many times a year as they want, as opposed to once previously. The decision — which means to facilitate the restructuring of government companies ahead of the start of the state’s privatization program — also exempts those with a lower turnover rate than the market average from seeking regulatory approval ahead of a share split transaction.

So, what’s the schedule for fall stake sales by state-owned companies? As it looks now:

• October: Eastern and AMOC
• November: ACCH
• December: Heliopolis Housing and Abu Qir

A second wave of companies is due to marketin 2019.

**#3 Food for thought: Could the central bank let the EGP slip a bit against the USD? Against the backdrop of the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse, a research report this week from Shuaa Securities’ Egypt office sees two possible scenarios when the central bank’s monetary policy committee meets a week from today:

1. Hike interest rates at least 100 bps in the short-term to keep Egyptian debt attractive to the carry trade amid rising competition from other EM and the generally chill running through a certain type of EM investor at the moment.
2. Leave rates on hold and signal to the banks that they should allow the EGP weaken a bit. Shuaa notes that over the past six months or so, we’ve seen the USD gain 5.5% and EM currencies slide c. 7.8% — but the EGP has lost only 1.7% in the same period. Allowing the EGP to slide a bit, it writes, “could limit foreign outflows from Treasuries (as they would be losing on the FX side).”

Pros and cons: Shuaa figures the rate hike is the less likely of its scenarios, saying it would drive up state borrowing costs too much (at the same time, we note, that the Finance Ministry is putting on a full-court press to manage Egypt’s debt position) and would also be negative for equities. The firm likes its second scenario, but notes the knock-on effects on inflation could be ugly.

Why this matters to the fall IPO season: Shuaa suggests that with foreign appetite key to upcoming equity offerings, prospective issuers need to hope for continued EGP stability — and will need to think twice about pricing: “Valuation multiples these stock offerings will be sold at should imply an attractive discount to fair value.”

When do we find out? The Central Bank of Egypt’s MPC next meets a week from today (27 September) and then again on 15 November and 27 December. We still see it leaving rates unchanged, but…

**#4 M&A WATCH- B Investments acquires majority stake in Gourmet in EGP 125 mn transaction: Private equity firm B Investments announced yesterday that it has acquired a majority stake in Gourmet in an EGP 125 mn transaction that saw it acquire a 40% stake from Wadi Degla at a cost of EGP 65 mn and also fund an EGP 60 mn capital increase. The transaction, the company’s third since its IPO, brings B Investments’ total holding in Gourmet to c. 53%, the company said in a press release (pdf). Proceeds from the capital increase will be allocated to expanding Gourmet’s frozen meats and poultry plant in 6 October City as well as growing its prepped meal business line. “We are extremely excited to partner with Gourmet Group’s experienced management team and to continue its growth story to become Egypt’s leading fresh, high quality food prfrozen ovider,” said B Investments Chairman Hazem Barakat.

**#5 Compass has completed an EGP 380 mn capital increase for its portfolio company Bonyan for Development and Trade, bringing the real estate play’s capital to EGP 654 mn, according to a company press release (pdf). Compass subsidiary Sky Realty Holding, which had acquired Bonyan from Qalaa Holdings in July, subscribed to the full capital hike. The increase aims to “equip Bonyan with the necessary tools to transform the asset into an operational lifestyle destination within a year, including bringing on a capable management team, defining clear growth strategies, and building an efficient capital structure,” said Compass Founder and Chairman Shamel Aboul Fadl.

Compass was one of eight companies that applied yesterday for regulatory approval on capital increases worth a combined EGP 1.4 bn, the Investment Ministry said in a statement. The others include Medical Union Pharma, which is looking to raise capital to EGP 450 mn from EGP 50 mn, fertilizers producer Evergrow (EGP 200 mn from EGP 130 mn), Wadi Group (EGP 122 mn from EGP 53 mn), and Al Rahma for Hotels (EGP 75 mn from EGP 15 mn).

**#6 Vezeeta raises USD 12 mn in Series C funding: Online medical bookings platform Vezeeta announced yesterday that it closed a UAS 12 mn series ‘C’ fundraising round led by Saudi Telecom’s venture capital arm, STV, according to a company press release (pdf). Existing investors including the UAE’s BECO Capital, Vostok New Ventures, and Silicon Badia were joined by Crescent Enterprises’ CE Ventures in the round, the proceeds from which “will be used to fund Vezeeta’s continued regional expansion, primarily in Saudi Arabia, and for further investments in key new products.” The company raised USD 5 mn in a series ‘B’ round in 2016 and had announced last year its intention to grow its regional operations after it launched its platform in Lebanon.

Algebra Ventures is looking to raise USD 10 mn before the end of this year, founding partner Ziad Mokhtar said, according to Al Mal, suggesting that the International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development may be interested. The firm would look to deploy the funding through 2020, investing in 20-25 companies in the tech and financial services sectors.

Court pushes reset button on Ibsina antitrust case: An Egyptian court decided yesterday to restart legal proceedings on Ibnsina’s appeal of antitrust sanctions in a case brought by the Egyptian Competition Authority. The case was booked for a hearing on 19 November, Ibnsina said in a disclosure yesterday (pdf). In March, the court had ruled against Ibnsina, United Pharma, Ramco Pharma, and Multipharma, for allegedly colluding to cut credit periods and slash discounts to small and medium pharmacies.

New capital talks stumble on stake split? The New Administrative Capital Company (NACC) and China Fortune Land Development Company (CFLD) are deadlocked on how to go forward with a 14k-feddan city planned for Egypt’s new administrative capital. At the heart of the issue: The Chinese developer wants to a larger-than-initially-agreed stake, NACC Chairman Ahmed Zaki Abdeen said, according to Youm 7. CFLD wants more than 40% of the complex, which is expected to include commercial, industrial, residential and cultural districts, sources close to the matter said, according to the report. The Chinese company is now reviewing options offered to it by the NACC, which is why negotiations have stopped, said Abdeen. Yasser Hashem, managing partner at law firm Zaki Hashem & Partners, which represents CFLD, said in Julythe Chinese company was ironing out the final details of its contract for the project whose MoU was first signed in 2016.

**#7 Egypt, Cyprus sign agreement on USD 1 bn gas pipeline: Oil Minister Tarek El Molla signed an agreement yesterday with Cypriot Energy Minister Yiorgos Lakkotrypis that will see the two countries collaborate to establish a direct underwater pipeline connecting Cyprus’ Aphrodite natural gas field to liquefaction plants in Egypt, according to an Oil Ministry statement. The agreement sets the regulatory framework for the exchange of natural gas between the two countries, ensuring the “safe development, construction, and operation” of the pipeline, Lakkotrypis said yesterday, according to Cyprus Mail. The pipeline is expected to cost at least USD 1 bn to build. The story is getting positive mention from Bloomberg this morning.

The construction schedule is unclear, especially with Cypriot officials still in talks with the consortium holding the license for the Aphrodite field, after they requested amendments to their revenue-sharing agreement with the government. Cypriot officials had previously said that a stalemate or rejection of the request could risk delaying the project by up to a decade. Details on the cost and financing for the pipeline were also not disclosed.

Background: The new pipeline is a crucial milestone in Egypt’s goal of becoming the premier energy hub in the East Mediterranean. Egypt will re-export the LNG back to Europe after it satisfies local demand, calling on two liquefaction plants on the North Coast. Egypt will also be importing natural gas from Israel under a USD 15 bn pact.

Is the EU going to offer Egypt incentives for illegal migrant plan? It is now increasingly clear that a faction of the EU led by European Council President Donald Tusk and Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz are pushing for some form of agreement with Egypt and other countries in North Africa to ensure there are incentives to continue stemming the flow of migrants into Europe. They once again revived this push at Wednesday’s informal meeting of 28 EU heads of state where the migration debate has taken front stage. The courtship is real, as Tusk and Kurz met with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on Sunday to discuss the issue, according to the Financial Times. The salmon-colored paper noted also that a number of EU diplomats have singing Egypt’s praises at the meeting.

At the heart of it are two factors: Europe’s failing disembarkation plan and Egypt’s success is keeping numbers of illegal migrants from its shores to Europe down. Tusk noted that the number of irregular departures from Egypt to Europe had fallen to none this year from almost 13,000 in 2016.

Adopting the Egypt model: Tusk also announced that the EU aims to hold a summit with Arab League states in February 2019 in Egypt, Reuters reports. While details of the summit were unavailable, the move will like see the EU negotiate with North African states for a Turkey-style aid for migrants agreement. The FT notes that EU officials have been visiting Morocco and Tunisia.

**#8 Egypt is the second-wealthiest country in Africa by total wealth, but a distant sixth in wealth per capita as measured in 2017, according to AfrAsia Bank’s Africa Wealth Report 2018 (pdf). South Africa led the list of the continent’s wealthiest countries. The report by the Mauritius-based bank drills into “wealth, luxury, prime property and wealth management trends in Africa.” The report estimates Africa’s luxury sector was worth USD 6 bn in 2017, including high-end cars, private jets, yachts, hotels, luxury clothing and accessories. Egypt’s luxury market is worth a paltry USD 0.3 bn compared with USD 2.2 bn for South Africa, it suggests. The Egyptian capital ranked the third richest African city with total wealth of USD 140 bn. Johannesburg and Cape Town top the list at USD 276 bn and USD 155 bn, respectively.

HNWI wealth management market: “Approximately USD 140 bn of African HNWI wealth is tied up with wealth managers and private banks,” the report estimates, saying, “we estimate the African wealth management market will grow by around 7% per annum over the next 10 years.”

Take it all with a heaping tablespoon of salt: The report, which also drills down into top luxury brands allegedly owned by the continent’s 1% (with absolutely no figures or market share) makes for fun reading. It is also entirely opaque about its data sources and methodology, citing almost invariably data provided by New World Wealth, which bills itself as a “global market research group” based in South Africa.

CORRECTION- Baker and Mckenzie acted as legal counsel to the African Export-Import Bank (AfreximBank) in its USD 200 mn loan agreement with the EGPC to finance the expansion of state-owned MIDOR’s refinery, the law firm told us yesterday. Amwal Al Ghad had incorrectly reported that Shalakany Law Office had advised Afrexim. The story has been deleted from our website.