Good morning, friends. In an unusually quiet morning in the international business press, it’s not much different over in Egypt or in the region more widely. In this unusually brisk issue today, we’ve picked up news of Qalaa’s buyback program wrapping up its first subscription phase, the government rejecting a proposal to hike the price of subsidized sugar, and more analyst forecasts coming our way suggesting that we should be pretty optimistic about inflation data for May set to be released today.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Some analysts think we could see inflation dip below 30%: Analysts appear to be united that when state statistics agency Capmas and the central bank publish inflation data for May later today, we will see inflation dip for a third consecutive month. But analysts seem to be divided on how much, with Naeem Brokerage forecasting that annual urban inflation will slow 4.1 percentage points from 32.5% the month before to 28.4% and monthly inflation will be negative for the first time in 23 months in a note seen by Enterprise. Standard Chartered also penciled in inflation dipping below 30%, forecasting a 2.7 percentage point decrease to 29.8%, the lender’s MENA economist Carla Slim said.

Even the more conservative forecasts are predicting a big easing of inflationary pressures: Headline inflation is forecasted to drop to 2.1 percentage points to 30.4% in a median forecast of 19 analysts polled by Reuters.

But the polls aren’t always correct: Policy makers and analysts alike were convinced that inflation would fall for a fifth consecutive month in February, but an unexpected jump in food prices pushed headline inflation up 5.9 percentage points, leaving a median forecast of 14 analysts polled by Reuters off the mark by a whole 10.6 percentage points.

#2- Shoukry in Russia for Brics FMs meeting: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is in Russia for the meeting of Brics foreign ministers, where he will take part in two sessions, one on cooperation between Brics countries on international and regional issues and another on cooperation mechanisms, according to a Foreign Ministry statement.

On the sidelines: Shoukry will meet with a number of his counterparts on the sidelines of the meeting and discussions will center around regional and international issues and the war on Gaza, the statement added.

Remember: Egypt became an official Brics member in January 2024.

#3- Get ready for exam season: Thanaweya Amma exams kick off today and will run until 20 July. Best of luck to all those entering exam halls or cheering on from the school gates.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

The Egyptian Center for Economic Studies is putting our relationship with India under the spotlight, with a lecture by Observer Research Foundation President Samir Saran. The lecture will be held at the ECES’ premises in the Nile City Towers from 3-5pm. Register for the event here.

PSA-

WEATHER- The weather in Cairo today will be much like yesterday, with a high of 36°C and a low of 23°C, before heading to the low 40s later in the week, according to our favorite weather app.

While it’s a good 5°C cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C and a low of 22°C.

SPEAKING OF HOT WEATHER- Speeds on most train routes will be limited due to high temperatures, the National Railway Authority said, citing safety concerns due to the effect of high temperatures on rails and equipment. The relevant authorities are monitoring weather conditions and trains are running normally despite decreased speeds.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Food sector players in violation of competition and consumer protection regulations beware: The Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) will announce a “major case” in the food sector following the Eid Al Adha break, authority head Mahmoud Momtaz said, Asharq Business reports. The ECA is also looking into potential violations in the edible oil sector, Momtaz continued.

DATA POINT-

#1- Suez Canal revenues continue falling: Suez Canal revenues continued to decline in May, falling some 64.3% y-o-y to record USD 337.8 mn, according to Al Mal. A little over 1.1k ships crossed the canal during the month, compared to nearly 2.4k during the same period last year.

#2- Local banks have a whole lot of sovereign debt: Egyptian banks’ holdings of sovereign debt are about 554% of their capital, writes Al Arabiya Business, citing global rating agency Moody’s.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at efforts to tackle Egypt’s industrial land scarcity with vertical expansion. Check it out here.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Act Financial to IPO next month: Investment management firm Act Financial will begin trading the company’s shares on the EGX by the last week of July, following the closure of the subscription period on Tuesday 23 July, Managing Partner Mostafa Abdel Aziz, told Al Borsa.

In detail: Act Financial’s IPO has received the Financial Regulatory Authority’s approval to offer around 32% of the company by offering around 360 mn shares, split into 300 mn shares for institutional investors and 60 mn for retail investors. The company has set the IPO price at EGP 2.90 a piece, a 36% markdown from the fair value price set at EGP 4.54 per share. The company aims to raise around EGP 1.0 bn through the offering.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

With little to no business news in sight, the world’s business press is zeroing in on Macron’s call for a snap election to be held in the next 30 days, after the far-right National Rally swamped his centrist Renaissance party in the 2024 EU parliamentary elections and sent alarm bells running through the halls of the Élysée. “I have confidence in our democracy, in letting the sovereign people have their say. I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered,” Macron said in a presidential address announcing the surprise election (watch, runtime: 5:05).

Also grabbing the headlines is news that “centrist” Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz and his party has left Netanyahu’s emergency government, leaving Netanyahu ever more reliant on far-right and ultranationalist parties to keep his slim coalition majority in the Knesset.

WHILE IN TRADE WAR NEWS- Swedish auto giant Volvo is moving its EV manufacturing out of China to Belgium as the EU gears up to follow the US in imposing harsher tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.

AND IN TECH NEWS- Siri may soon finally be useful, with Apple rumored to announce a new and improved version of the virtual assistant this week at its five-day annual WWDC conference, writes The Verge.

The event starts tonight at 8pm (CLT). You can catch the live stream later here.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We dive into the EGP 2.4 bn sports-focused Swiss school that CIRA Education is setting up in partnership with Madinet Masr and Klub Kayan.