CBE holds rates steady again

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What We're Tracking Today

Are developers lining up to snatch up plots near Dreamland?

Good morning, all. We’re officially in the final countdown to Ramadan, with the holy month a handful of days away.

PSA-

PSA #1- Ramadan hours come into effect starting Saturday: Shops, restaurants, and cafés will be allowed to stay open until 2am during Ramadan and Eid Al Fitr, according to a statement.

PSA #2- The Your Home in Egypt initiative goes digital: Egyptian expats can now start securing housing units through the Your Home in Egypt initiative, which rolled out its first phase with 5k residential units across 12 developments in the new capital, New Alamein, New Mansoura, 6th of October, Sheikh Zayed, New Cairo, and other areas, according to a statement. A newly launched online platform allows buyers to explore units via virtual tours, complete transactions remotely, and make payments through secure FX transfer options. Some units are available for immediate delivery, while others will be handed over by the end of the year.

WEATHER- It’s another cold day in Cairo, with a high of 16°C and a low of 10°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- A US federal judge opened the door for the Trump administration to put over 2k USAID workers on paid leave, Reuters reports. The move allows the administration to move forward with its planned dismantling of the agency as State Secretary Marco Rubio vets all US foreign aid against the new administration’s foreign policy before turning the foreign aid tap back on.

What does this mean for Egypt? The Egyptian arm of USAID used to employ some 1.2k Egyptians and foreigners. Employees who wish to return to the US need to do so within the coming 30 days or else their travel won’t be covered, Axios writes. We have more on the role of USAID in Egypt and what its pullback may mean in a story published earlier this month — check it out here.

REMEMBER- Earlier this month, shortly after the news of shuttering the agency came to light, US President Donald Trump described USAID as “run by radical lunatics” and the head of the Department of Government Efficiency Elon Musk referred to it as a “criminal organization" and a “radical-left political psy op.”

#2- The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) will issue a decision regarding the registration and licensing fees for companies subject to the new Unified Ins. Law within two weeks, FRA deputy head Islam Azzam was quoted as saying by Al Mal.

REMEMBER- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi ratified the Unified Ins. Law in July, with the legislation offering new, comprehensive rules for regulating the ins. industry, widening compulsory coverage, and boosting the financial solvency of ins. firms.

Also in the works: The FRA is looking to set a clear distinction between medical ins. providers and third-party administrators (TPAs) so that a company can specialize in either one but not both.

#3- Are developers lining up to snatch up plots near Dreamland? State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr have received offers from 16 local and Gulf developers to acquire an 800-feddan plot near 6th of October’s Dreamland, sources told Al Shorouk. The plot — valued at EGP 50 bn — is earmarked for a major urban development that will likely see some EGP 200 bn in investment.

What’s next? NBE and Banque Misr are currently weighing the offers — which could possibly see them divide the plot into three — and could settle on one by 3Q 2025. The asset landed in their hands after a 10-year legal battle with Bahgat Group.

SMART POLICY-

Hassan Allam Utilities and Infinity will expand Egypt’s EV charging network under a shareholders agreement with Misr Petroleum and Gastec, according to a statement (pdf). Under the agreement, the players will “leverage the extensive filling station networks of Misr Petroleum and Gastec for installing and operating EV chargers at strategic high-traffic locations across the nation.”

ICYMI- Infinity said earlier this month that it plans to operate 1k charging points by the last quarter of the year. The renewables player currently operates 200 EV charging stations with more than 700 charging points.

What they said: “This partnership marks a transformative step in accelerating the adoption of EVs in Egypt. By joining forces with industry leaders, we are not only expanding charging infrastructure but also laying the groundwork for a more sustainable mobility ecosystem,” Infinity’s co-founder and CEO Nayar Fouad said.

IN THE HOUSE-

The House is back in session after a two-week break: MPs will continue reviewing the 541-article Criminal Procedures Law, debating and voting on the remaining 76 articles before putting the full bill up for a final vote. The House will also discuss four foreign grant agreements — two from Spain to support industrial wastewater recycling and job creation, and two from Japan aimed at socioeconomic development and upgrading cultural facilities.

Later this week: MPs will kick off preliminary discussions on the redrafted Labor Law that recently got the thumbs up from the Manpower Committee.

REMEMBER- The government pulled the bill from the House of Representatives back in 2023 to be re-drafted after backlash from the business community, which said the original version was lopsided in favor of workers. Prior to the redraft, the bill would have introduced new labor rights, including legislating mandatory annual raises, caps on working hours, and longer maternity leave and notice periods, among other things. Labor unions have also had sharp criticism of the previous version of the bill.

DATA POINT-

Some 113k investors poured EGP 1.3 bn into Egypt’s three gold investment funds over the past year and a half, Financial Regulatory Authority head Mohamed Farid told Asharq Business.

REMEMBER- Asset managers Evolve Investment Holding and Azimut set up the country’s first gold fund in May 2023, after which we saw Beltone Securities Holding and Evolve Holding launch Beltone Evolve Gold and Al Ahly Financial Investments Management set up Al Ahly Dahab.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly is in Kuwait for an official visit, where he will meet senior Kuwaiti officials to discuss cooperation across various sectors, according to a cabinet statement. Madbouly is also set to co-chair a discussion covering issues of common interest with his Kuwaiti counterpart Sheikh Ahmad Al Abdullah Al Sabah.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

International energy companies have until Tuesday to put in their bids for some 23 blocks offered by the Oil Ministry, according to an Oil Ministry statement. The tender includes concessions in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta,

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Pope Francis’ health dominates headlines as Vatican provides updates: Concerns over Pope Francis’ health are making waves this morning after the Vatican confirmed that his condition has worsened, prompting global speculation about the future of his leadership. The 88-year-old pope has been battling a severe respiratory infection, requiring high-flow oxygen and blood transfusions. (Reuters | WSJ | AP | Bloomberg)

AND IN BUSINESS NEWS- Warren Buffett has pushed Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile to a record USD 334 bn at the end of last year, according to its latest earnings (pdf). The figure is a reflection of selling more stocks than bought for the ninth straight quarter, that includes shares in Apple, Citigroup, and Bank of America. That being said, in his annual letter Buffett told shareholders that they “can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities — mostly American equities although many of these will have international operations of significance.” (Reuters | Financial Times | CNBC)

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CBE holds interest rates steady for the seventh consecutive meeting

CBE keeps interest rates unchanged during its first meeting of the year: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged when it held its first meeting of the year on Thursday. The move marks the seventh consecutive meeting where the committee decided to keep rates as they are.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The why: The MPC deemed that “the current policy rates are appropriate to maintain a sufficiently tight monetary stance. This will ensure the realization of the projected disinflation path, and firmly anchor inflation expectations. Accordingly, the Committee’s decisions regarding the appropriate time for beginning the accommodative cycle will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis,” it said in a statement (pdf).

Where interest rates currently stand: The overnight deposit rate stands at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 27.75%. Rates have remained unchanged since the committee delivered a 600 bps rate hike following a surprise monetary policy meeting last March, which was accompanied by the float of the EGP and the approval of a larger loan package from the IMF.

Inflation in focus amid Trump’s trade war, geopolitical tensions: The committee said that annual inflation “experienced a slower pace of deceleration throughout the second half of 2024 compared to the first half.” Food inflation continues to decelerate into 2025 but non-food inflation “remains sticky.” Risks to the current inflation outlook are bigger this time around — courtesy of US President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies and geopolitical tensions in the region.

REMEMBER- Annual headline urban inflation dipped to 24.0% in January, marking a marginal 0.1 percentage point drop from December. The figure marks the nation’s lowest inflation reading since December 2022 when inflation recorded 21.3%, which marked the beginning of an upward trend that has been slowing down for three consecutive months. The central bank decided to extend its inflation targets last December to an average of 7% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2026 and 5% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2028.

Analysts were divided over which way the MPC will lean: Out of the nine analysts we surveyed for our customary interest rate poll, only three saw the MPC keeping rates steady. Four analysts had penciled in a rate cut, while the remaining two saw the committee leaning either way.

Why were analysts expecting a cut? While the MPC’s decision indicates “deliberate caution in the face of global and regional uncertainties” and “aligns with efforts to anchor inflation expectation,” it raised concerns that the central bank can’t pick “the optimal moment” to start cutting rates, said economist Mona Bedair. Analysts projected a rate cut because “headline inflation is projected to drop significantly in 1Q 2025” and "major central banks, including the Fed, have begun cutting rates,” according to Bedair, who explained that “delaying action could narrow Egypt’s window to attract capital inflows.”

Why the cautious stance? Although inflation is decelerating, “non-food inflation remains elevated (25.5%), making the CBE wary of premature cuts,” said Bedair. Furthermore, the uncertainty brought by Trump’s trade policies and the ongoing geopolitical tensions “adds layers of risk, reinforcing a cautious stance.”

The bottom line: “While monetary easing is inevitable, delaying too long may force a sharper rate adjustment later, increasing economic strain,” Bedair warned, adding that “a gradual 100-200 bps cut would have balanced inflation control with economic support.” Bedair also cautioned that “keeping rates high for too long could slow recovery, suppress investment, and unnecessarily increase borrowing costs.”

A rate cut is becoming a necessity for the economy: “An interest rate cut is necessary to counter the stagflation [Egypt is] almost experiencing, encourage investment, localize industry, increase employment, boost tax revenues to reduce the budget deficit, promote exports, and repay debts,” economist Hany Tawfik said on Thursday before the MPC announced its decision.

It seems the easing cycle is looming in the horizon: “The CBE’s statement echoed our long held view that the headline inflation rate will slow significantly over the coming months as earlier falls in the EGP fall out of the annual price comparison. Indeed, we expect inflation to fall back to single digits in March,” Capital Economics’ Senior MENA Economist James Swanston said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Swanston sees policymakers cutting interest rates when they meet in April. “We are forecasting a total of 1600 bps of rate cuts this year, taking the overnight deposit rate to 11.25%, which is much lower than the consensus forecast of 15.00%.”

Trump takes back Gaza plan as Arab leaders weigh Gaza’s future in Riyadh

Trump walks back his plans for Gaza amid regional pushback: US President Donald Trump appeared to take back his plan to displace Gaza’s 2 mn citizens. “I'll tell you, the way to do it is my plan. I think that's the plan that really works. But I'm not forcing it. I'm just going to sit back and recommend it,” Trump told Fox News on Friday.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MEANWHILE- Arab leaders hold meeting on the Palestinian cause: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi joined a handful of Arab leaders in Riyadh on Friday for an informal meeting on Palestine, according to an Ittihadeya statement. The meeting was attended by the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait, and the Crown Prince of Bahrain.

On the agenda: “The meeting included consultations on various regional and international issues, with a focus on joint efforts to support the Palestinian cause and address developments in the Gaza Strip,” according to Saudi state news agency SPA. “The leaders welcomed the emergency Arab summit scheduled for Cairo on March 4, 2025.”

The leaders discussed Egypt’s proposal to rebuild Gaza, unnamed sources close to the discussions told Reuters. The plan could require USD 20 bn in funding over a three-year period, likely to come from wealthy Gulf and Arab nations.

Remember: This month Egypt said it will propose “a comprehensive vision for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip in a manner that ensures the Palestinian people remain in their homeland and aligns with their legitimate and legal rights.” Egypt has already begun clearing rubble and rebuilding infrastructure in Gaza, with heavy equipment working to open roads for aid entry.

Two key elements of the plan include: ensuring reconstruction happens without displacing the residents of Gaza and excluding Hamas from governing Gaza, Reuters reported last week, citing three unnamed Egyptian sources.

Egypt’s gas production hits eight-year low at 4.87 bcf/d

Local gas production dipped to an eight-year low of 4.87 bn cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2024, shedding 16%, or nearly 1 bcf/d, y-o-y, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) said in a report citing Oil Ministry data. This marks the third consecutive year of declines. Meanwhile, separate figures from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) indicate an even lower figure of 4.77 bcf/d.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

ALSO- The country’s crude oil production hit its lowest level since the late 1970s, dropping 3% y-o-y to 476k barrels per day (bbl/d). Condensate production dropped 18% y-o-y to 71.5k b/d, another multi-decade low.

Mediterranean gas output leads the decline: The offshore Mediterranean remains Egypt’s primary gas-producing region, but its output has been declining at a faster pace than the national average. Production in the region fell 18%, or 773 mcf/d, y-o-y to a six-year low of around 3.54 bcf/d. Notably, the region's share of total national gas output dropped to 72.8%, down from over 74% in 2023.

It doesn’t look like it will get better in the short term: Egypt is in for “two tough years,” an unnamed Oil Ministry official told MEES on the sidelines of the Egypt Energy Show last week. Egypt is expected to struggle to offset its gas production declines over the next two years, with domestic output expected to remain well below past highs despite ongoing development efforts. While offshore drilling and tie-ins at key fields are aimed at slowing the decline, output is unlikely to rise before 2027. MEES sees Egypt continuing to import gas from Israel — which hit a record 1.07 bcf/d in January — and costly LNG to bridge the growing gap.

It’s not just MEES with this outlook: Local analysts expect Egypt's energy deficit to persist through FY 2024-2025 and FY 2025-2026 as lower gas production struggles to meet rising local demand, Morgan Stanley said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM earlier this month. However, a series of policy measures could help reverse the trend, including clearing arrears owed to foreign energy companies, providing incentives for investment in explorations and new fields, and increasing the share of renewables in power generation. These efforts have fueled optimism that Egypt could return to being a net LNG exporter by 2027.

New developments in the pipeline won’t be enough: The report says that while Egypt is hoping that a handful of new gas developments could prevent further declines, the numbers suggest they won’t be enough to reverse the downward trend in production.

2027 outlook hinges on major discoveries: Egypt’s best hope for reversing the production decline lies in the Nargis and Nour fields, which are expected to come online in 2027 with a combined 500 mcf/d. Additionally, BP’s El King project, which is expected to yield 200 mcf/d, is set to launch in early 2027, and Egyptian officials are pegging long-term hopes on ExxonMobil’s Nefertari discovery, which holds 3-4 tcf of reserves.

Standing in the way: Chevron, which operates the Nargis gas field — one of the country’s biggest recent discoveries — is pushing for better fiscal terms before submitting a development plan, according to the report. The company is reportedly seeking a gas price higher than the USD 6.20 per mn BTU that Egypt currently pays Eni for Zohr output, stalling plans to accelerate the project. “Cairo has been left frustrated by their approach and was hoping to fast-track Nargis development due to its growing gas needs. Evidently Chevron and Eni are leveraging this to try and squeeze Cairo for those improved terms,” an industry insider told MEES.

“MEES understands that the most likely scenario would see combined development of Nargis and Nour,” the report writes. Citing a local oil official as saying “considering their proximity to under-utilized Eni facilities [the now depleted Thekah field is just 40km away], and Eni’s participation in both, this presents obvious synergies.” However, before any development plans are finalized, Chevron is set to drill an appraisal well at Nargis in 2H 2025.

Remember: After becoming a net exporter of LNG in 2018 and signaling its intention to become an important energy exporter to the region and Europe, production falls and rising domestic demand led to Egypt having to ramp up imports to bridge the supply gap.

IN OTHER ENERGY NEWS-

Dragon Oil eyes further investments in Egypt as overdue payments shrink: Dragon Oil, a subsidiary of Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc), is exploring new prospects in our oil sector as the Madbouly government continues to make good on its overdue payments, CEO Ali Al Jarwan told Asharq Business (watch, runtime 5:00) on the sidelines of the Egypt Energy Show.

Dragon Oil remains committed to investing USD 500 mn in Egypt in 2025 for operational and capital expenditures while actively seeking further expansion prospects, Al Jarwan said. He added that Egypt's investment environment has become more attractive as the government continues to clear outstanding arrears.

AND- China’s North Petroleum lines up USD 100 mn for new investments in Egypt: North Petroleum International Company, the Egyptian arm of Chinese state-run ZhenHua Oil, has allocated USD 100 mn to secure new oil and gas concessions in Egypt and form partnerships for exploration in the Western Desert and the country’s offshore areas, the company’s Country General Manager Sun Bao told Asharq Business.

UAE’s 2PointZero acquires Egyptian fintech player Maseera Holding

2PointZero, the investment arm of Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company, acquired Cairo-born fintech Maseera Holding for an undisclosed sum, according to a statement. The Abu Dhabi-based investment platform plans to funnel USD 1 bn into Maseera to support its expansion and rebranding, as well as the launch of a new Abu Dhabi-based arm for Maseera.

Plans to go global: Following the acquisition, Maseera plans to expand beyond Egypt, with an initial focus on improving access to financial services for businesses and individuals in emerging markets. The company will use 2PointZero’s investment to develop its AI and digital technology toolkit, helping it scale its offerings across key markets in Asia and Africa.

The pitch: “By combining Maseera’s client-centric approach with our technological expertise and global reach, we are enhancing our dynamic value network and delivering innovative financial solutions to markets where we operate,” 2PointZero Group CEO Mariam Almheiri said.

About Maseera Holding: The data-driven fintech player offers financial services tailored to low- and middle-income individuals, as well as micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. Maseera operates as a digital marketplace for financial products designed to be accessible and affordable.

Abu Dhabi’s Aghthia Group now owns 80% of Abu Auf

UAE’s Aghthia takes bigger bite of Abu Auf: ADX-listed food giant Aghthia Group nabbed an additional 10% stake in homegrown snack-maker Abu Auf, bringing its total holding in the specialty nut and date processor to 80%, it said in a filing (pdf) to the ADX. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Not the first we’re hearing of it: Aghthia — majority-owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ — has been gradually upping its stake in the company. The Emirati food giant first acquired a 60% interest in Abu Auf back in 2022 before it secured another 10% in February 2024.

The move strengthens Agthia’s foothold in Egypt’s fast-growing food market and bolsters its local operations, which contributed 20% of total revenues in 2024, up from 15-16% the previous year, despite economic headwinds.

Abu Auf, by the numbers: Abu Auf has expanded aggressively since the acquisition, opening 100 new stores over the past two years. The company reported a 33% y-o-y jump in revenues in 2024 in AED, despite the float of the EGP, with EBITDA soaring by over 70% y-o-y in AED terms.

What they said: “With Agthia’s scale and expertise, Abu Auf has accelerated on the growth journey and remains firmly committed to continued innovation and expansion,” Abu Auf CEO Ahmed Auf said.

Arabian Cement lines up EUR 25 mn package from EBRD to boost decarbonization efforts

EBRD to provide EUR 25 mn to local cement player: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will roll out a EUR 25 mn financing package to the Arabian Cement Company (ACC) to support its green transition, according to a statement from the multilateral lender. The package will be backed by a first-loss risk cover from the EU’s European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Where the money is going: The funds are expected to help ACC reduce emissions by 130k tons a year through reading its carbon-intensive production processes and supporting its decarbonization efforts. Additionally, The funding will finance the expansion of ACC’s alternative fuel injection capacity, automation improvements, and industrial facility upgrades.

That’s not all: The funds will also cover the acquisition and installation of a hydrogen injection system — “a first for Egypt’s cement sector” — to boost combustion efficiency and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

What they said: “With the support of our EU partners, this investment will not only assist ACC in adopting innovative technology, but also promote environmentally responsible industrial practices and complement the country’s decarbonisation efforts, contributing to a greener economy,” EBRD’s Managing Director for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Mark Davis said.

Gov’t to hand slaughterhouses to private players

PRIVATIZATION-

Gov’t plans handover of new slaughterhouses to private sector: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly ordered authorities to develop a plan for handing over the management and operation of newly completed slaughterhouses to private players, according to a cabinet statement. The government is currently developing some 150 slaughterhouses over three phases, the first phase includes 41 slaughterhouses across 22 governorates.

INVESTMENT WATCH-

#1- More details on the USD 7 bn petrochemicals complex: The USD 7 bn petrochemical production complex being set up in New Alamein courtesy of UK-based Shard Capital and Saudi Arabia-based Alqahtani Holding will have an annual production capacity of 3.1 mn tons of eight petrochemical products, Shard Capital said in a press release (pdf). The complex will house a refinery and a mixed steam cracker unit using crude oil as feedstock. It will create 20k jobs during the construction process and 3k jobs once up and running. While framed as a game-changer for Egypt’s industrial exports, key details like the project timeline and ownership structure remain unclear.

ICYMI- The players inked the framework agree ment for the project last week during the Egypt Energy Show.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

#2- Smartphone distributor JIT plans USD 15 mn expansion: Egyptian-Emirati firm JIT for Trading and Distribution, the authorized distributor for Huawei, Nokia, and Realme, is planning to invest USD 15 mn to expand its operations in Egypt in 2025, Chairman Ahmed Fathy said. The company plans to increase its distribution points to 15 nationwide, up the current 10 to boost its customer base, Fathy said. He added that his company aims to increase sales by 30-40% this year, after they surpassed EGP 2 bn in 2024.

AGRICULTURE-

Agricultural development and food industries company Wedyan will set up a USD 50 mn medicinal and aromatic plants project, Al Borsa reports. Exports from the project are estimated to reach USD 100 mn next year. The project will house five factories — a drying and packaging facility near a farming area in Minya and four distillation plants in Cairo — with a total annual production capacity of 100k tons.

EXPANSION-

#1- State-owned company El Nasr Housing and Development plans to launch its first integrated urban project in Oman with a USD 60 mn investment in partnership with Omani government entities, CEO Mohamed Abdel Maqsoud told Al Borsa.

What’s next? Final procedures for the project are set to be completed by the end of this year, with the company also exploring three additional projects in Oman as part of its broader expansion strategy.

#2- Electronics retail firm 2B plans to expand its after-sales service 2B Fix into the Saudi market by late 2025 or early 2026 through a strategic partnership, Al Borsa reports citing CEO Mohamed Grida. The company is also launching a digital solutions and software development business unit — focused on e-commerce and resource management — which is set to be export-oriented.

EVS-

Ride-hailing company DiDi is mulling taking part in the establishment of an electric vehicle manufacturing plant in Egypt in partnership with other companies and government entities, DiDi General Manager for Egypt, New Zealand, and Australia Lida Xu told Al Arabiya. The move would facilitate the addition of EVs to the company’s local fleet.

Plus a new data center to boot? The company is also mulling launching a data center for its operations in Egypt if sufficient demand for its services required the move, Lida said. The company’s local operations currently rely on its main data center in Beijing.

CABINET WATCH-

EU to fund Egypt’s National Population Strategy: The cabinet signed off on a financing agreement for the second phase of the EU’s support to Egypt’s National Population Strategy program. The agreement — backed by a EUR 12 mn grant from the EU — aims to support Egypt’s efforts in managing population growth and implementing key demographic policies.

European stocks deliver their best performance against the US in a decade following Trump’s inauguration

European stocks have outperformed their US counterparts since Trump’s inauguration amid expectations that a worst-case scenario trade war will be avoided, the Financial Times reports. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose by 5.2% since 17 January, while the S&P 500 advanced by 2.5% and Nasdaq rose 1.7%. This marks the strongest start to a year for European stocks since the late 1980s and their best performance against the US in about a decade, FT reports, citing Bank of America analysts.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Behind the trend: Analysts attribute this development to Trump’s decision to hold off on imposing tariffs on the EU, along with the potential for peace talks in Ukraine. The European stock rally has also been supported by increased bank lending and lower interest rates from the European Central Bank, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments Andrew Pease said. Other reasons include fund managers increasing their allocations to European stocks since the beginning of 2025.

The biggest gainers: Sectors such as finance, defense, and luxury goods have posted notable gains. Defense company Rheinmetall surged 28%, while luxury brand Richemont climbed 10% over the past month.

Some are now overweight on European stocks, including analysts at UBS, who upgraded their outlook on European stocks to overweight, citing potential lower energy prices if the Ukraine conflict ends, expansionary fiscal policy, and stronger corporate earnings.

But is it sustainable? Some analysts question whether the rally will last, as US tariffs may be delayed rather than permanently scrapped. Trump has signaled that European imports including cars, pharma, and chips could face 25% tariffs, following similar charges on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. Meanwhile, UBS analysts warn that European outperformance has historically been short-lived, urging investors to remain cautious.

Also seeing big gains so far this year: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has been the best-performing major market since 20 January, rising 15%. The surge was driven by a rally in Chinese technology stocks following the introduction of the AI platform DeepSeek. Elsewhere, China’s CSI 300 gained 3%, Japan’s Topix rose 2%, and India’s Nifty 50 declined 1% during the same period.

EGX30	30,915	+0.1% (YTD: +4.0%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 50.50	Sell 50.64
USD (CIB)	Buy 50.51	Sell 50.61
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	12,388	+0.6% (YTD +2.9%)
ADX	9,618	0.0% (YTD: +2.1%)
DFM	5,359	-0.4% (YTD: +3.9%)
S&P 500	6,013	-1.7% (YTD: +2.2%)
FTSE 100	8,659	0.0% (YTD: +6.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,475	+0.3% (YTD: +11.8%)
Brent crude	USD 74.43	-2.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.23	+2.0%
Gold	USD 2,953	-0.1%
BTC	USD 96,646	+0.9% (YTD: +3.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.1% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.7 bn (29.3% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 4.0% YTD.

In the green: EgyptAlum (+5.5%), Orascom Development Egypt (+4.7%), and Palm Hills Development (+4.6%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-3.1%), Eipico (-1.7%), and CIB (-1.2%).

CORPORATE ACTION-

Ezz Steel starts share buyback ahead of voluntary delisting: Steel manufacturer Ezz Steel will begin buying the shares of shareholders objecting to its voluntary delisting from the EGX and those looking to exit their holdings at EGP 138.15 per share via the special operations market, the firm said in an EGX disclosure (pdf). Shareholders have until Thursday to submit their selling orders.

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

21-23 February ( Friday-Sunday): The First Arab Fraud Combating Summit.

BP to bring the second well of its Raven natural gas project online, with additional production capacity expected.

Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to bring total investments in the Pyramids Plateau to EGP 1.5 bn.

Subscription period for Your Home in Egypt initiative opens.

MARCH

3 March (Monday): Central bank to publish foreign reserve data for February.

4 March (Tuesday): Egypt will host emergency Arab League summit on Gaza.

4 March (Tuesday): S&P Global to release Egypt’s PMI figures for March.

10 March (Monday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for February.

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer.

Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm.

Alwaad Investment to inaugurate a new cold beverage plant with an annual production capacity of 14.5 mn units.

Al Ahly Sabbour to finalize preparations for its EGX listing, offering 20-25% of its shares, with an advisor to be tapped in early 2025.

March-April 2025: The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains from EGX transactions.

APRIL

10 April (Thursday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for March.

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit launches 9th edition, Red Sea

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

MAY

10 May (Saturday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for April.

18-20 May (Sunday-Tuesday): First Arab International Exhibition for Sustainable Development.

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will submit technical and financial bids for Cairo Metro Line 6

JUNE

10 June (Tuesday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for May.

June 2025: MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

June 2025: Nissan and Honda finalise talks about possible merger to create the world’s third largest automobile company by sales.

June 2025: Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

July 2025: Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

July 2025: Israel to begin increasing gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

August 2025: Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

September 2025: Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

September 2025: Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Centre.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

December: Taqa Arabia and Voltalia to complete studies for repowering the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2025: ADQ to break ground on the development of Ras El Hekma

Early 2025: Al Ismaelia to begin working on two new hotels and hotel apartments in Downtown Cairo.

Early 2025: The Communications Ministry will unveil the second edition of its national AI strategy in early 2025

Early 2025: The Suez Canal Authority to launch an IPO for the Canal Company for Mooring and Lights (CCML) on the EGX.

Early 2025: Orange Egypt to launch 5G services, with EGP 10 bn planned for network upgrades.

Early 2025: BP to begin drilling at the King Mariout Offshore concession.

Early 2025: Jinbei Royal Egypt to begin local assembly of 3k Jinbei vehicles, including the country’s first electric cargo van and microbus

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

1Q 2025: Egypt to sign trade agreements with Bahrain and UAE to slash customs clearance times

1Q 2025: Government to launch EUR 271 mn green industry program to cut emissions

1Q 2025: Egypt-Azerbaijan joint committee to meet to bolster trade and investment ties

1Q 2025: Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association and Turkish Contractors Association to visit Egypt following an invitation from the Investment Minister

1Q 2025: One of four companies, including Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, and a Saudi-affiliated firm, to be selected for the USD 450 mn redevelopment of Delta Fertilizers

1Q 2025: GV Auto to begin local production of FAW Group’s cheapest EV model.

1Q 2025: Alkan Auto to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market.

1Q 2025: Dynamic Distribution to launch a new competitively-priced Fiat model in Egypt.

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta.

1Q 2025: Port Said for Engineering Works to begin construction on a USD 80 mn aluminum foil factory in the SCZone, targeting initial production of 60k tons annually.

1Q 2025: Pearl Polyurethane Systems to start production at its EGP 100 mn polyurethane factory in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

1Q 2025: Sumitomo Electric to officially open its EUR 22 mn cable factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with production set to begin next month.

1Q 2025: Construction of the USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession to wrap up, followed by a pilot run.

1Q 2025: El Araby Group and Sharp to break ground on a USD 50 mn fridge and freezer manufacturing plant in the Quweisna zone.

1Q 2025: Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods to begin production at its USD 50 mn factory in the West Qantara Industrial Zone

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports' Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: EgyptSat Auto to start production at its EV factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Natco to launch Chinese firm Neta Auto’s EV models.

1H 2025: OCI Global to complete the sale of its entire methanol business to Methanex for USD 2.05 bn.

1H 2025: Egypt and the UAE to begin construction of a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone at Al Hamra Port

1H 2025: HoldiPharma to list 25-30% stakes in Misr Pharma and Chemical Industries Development (CID) on the EGX

1H 2025: Korra Energi to list up to 20% stake on the EGX

1H 2025: Smart Villages Development and Management Company plans to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

1H 2025: Halliburton to bring three gas wells online as part of the Burullus project.

1H 2025: Chevron to begin gas production from the offshore Nargis gas field, initially producing 600 mn cf.

1H 2025: Nile Recycling to launch USD 20 mn PET recycling facility in Ain Sokhna, targeting an annual capacity of 22k tons and reducing carbon emissions by 40k tons

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: AMEA Power to bring 500 MW Amunet wind farm online in Ras Ghareb

4Q 2025: Abou Ghaly Motors to introduce the Subaru Solterra to the market

4Q 2025: Two new projects in food manufacturing and home textiles to begin operations in the Qantara West Industrial Zone

2H 2025: National Printing Company to make its EGX debut after delayed IPO plans

2H 2025: Tabarak Holding to list 30% of its shares on the EGX

2H 2025: Turkish apparel company Denim Rise to open a garment manufacturing facility

2H 2024: Hi-Tech Apparel to break ground on a USD 20 mn sportswear factory in the SCZone

2H 2025: Eni to drill two new wells in the Zohr field with USD 160 mn in investments

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

Mid-2025: SN Automotive to launch three locally assembled models — one electric and two gasoline-powered — in Egypt

Mid-2025: Suez’s USD 1.8 bn coal and diesel production complex, developed by Enppi and Petrojet, to be completed

Mid-2025: Wataneya and Safi to debut on the EGX

End of 2025: The Egypt Digital Industrial Platform will expand to include additional services for manufacturers, including the issuance of licenses, building permits, and industrial records

End of 2025: An unnamed Chinese company and the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to begin production at a USD 360 mn tire factory in the SCZone.

End of 2025: A consortium including Redcon Properties and Al Baraka Bank to launch a local real estate investment fund with over EGP 1 bn in initial investments

Late 2025: Baron Hotels to open a new hotel in Sharm El Sheikh and debut its first international property in Zanzibar with 150 luxury suites

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2025: Nafeza to integrate air cargo into its digital customs platform, further streamlining trade logistics

2025: Africa50 completes 42.9% stake acquisition in Raya Data Centers for USD 15 mn to fund construction of a USD 35 mn Tier III data center.

2025: MM Group for Industry and International Trade is set to launch 16 new Tata vehicle models locally.

2025: China to issue USD 411 bn in special treasury bonds

2025: El Attal Holding to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) to launch its EGX debut, offering 5-10% of its shares.**

2025: Basata Holding for Financial Investments to offer 25% stake on the EGX as part of a plan to double its capital to EGP 1.4 bn.**

2025: Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi to open early in the year, alongside debuts of Tapestry Collection and Curio Collection by Hilton.

2025: Palm Hills and Marriott to launch The Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Cairo, featuring 150 branded units across 45 acres

2025: Jaz Hotel Group to set up two new hotels in North Coast, two in Hurghada, and two in Marsa Alam

2025: Sunrise Resorts & Cruises to add 4k hotel rooms to its hotels capacity.

2025: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) to complete studies and kick off production of Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

2025: Polaris Parks to begin development of the industrial park in New October City

2025: EgyptAlum to launch a USD 100 mn foil production line with a 50k-ton annual capacity

2025: Honor to begin operations at its proposed smartphone manufacturing facility in Egypt, with an initial investment of USD 10 mn

2025: Indorama and Phosphate Misr to begin implementation of the USD 400-500 mn phosphate fertilizers plant in Ain Sokhna

FY 2025-26: Egypt to issue its first EGP-denominated sovereign sukuk to finance public investments outside the general budget

FY 2025-26: The government to begin introducing cash-based subsidies on a trial basis in select areas of the country

2025-2027: EUR 4 bn in concessional loans to follow as part of a EUR 7.4 bn package

2026

Baron Hotels to launch two hotels in Egypt with 950 rooms, followed by another with 750 rooms.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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