CBE gives the “all-clear” with 100 bps rate cut

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Israel sets Cairo’s teeth on edge as it becomes the first country to recognize Somaliland’s independence

Happy last week of 2025, friends. We made it through another 12 months together, and our reward is both (a) a much brighter outlook on the year ahead and (b) news of a bonkers move by Israel, which has just bid to upend the Red Sea apple cart as it became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent nation.

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

UP FIRST- Israel became the first UN member state to formallyrecognizeSomaliland’sindependence on Friday, a move that could alter the security architecture of the Red Sea and give Addis Ababa the legal cover it needs to proceed with its contested 50-year port lease at Berbera. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu framed the recognition as an expansion of the Abraham Accords, with Somaliland’s leader, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, saying his enclave would join the framework.

For Egypt, this is the crossing of a major red line: By granting Somaliland legitimacy, Israel has effectively validated Ethiopia’s controversial 50-year port-lease agreement, which previously lacked a legal sovereign partner. This could give Ethiopia the maritime gateway it has long sought and provide Israel with a formal intelligence and military foothold at the southern mouth of the Red Sea — providing yet another field on which Israel can clash with Iran and the Houthis.

Egypt’s Foreign Ministry condemned the move in the “strongest terms” yesterday. Some 21 nations including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Jordan joined us in condemning Israel’s move. A joint statement warns of a “dangerous precedent” that threatens the security of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

The group explicitly rejected any link between the recognition and broader regional schemes including the forced displacement of Palestinians — a signal that the Sisi administration views the move not just as a maritime threat, but as part of a larger geopolitical reshuffle. The Arab League and the African Union have also condemned Israel’s actions.

The diplomatic fallout moves to New York tomorrow. That’s when the UN Security Council will convene for an emergency session at Somalia’s request.

Will Donald Trump be the spoiler? While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the move as being in the “spirit of the Abraham Accords,” US President Donald Trump appeared to pour cold water on the idea. In an interview yesterday, Trump dismissed the prospect of immediate US recognition and downplayed Somaliland’s strategic offers, calling its bid to host a US military port “no big deal.”

BACKGROUND- Landlocked Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland in early 2024 seeking 20 km of coastline for a naval base and commercial port in exchange for future recognition.

The strategic context: Israel’s recognition places it at the center of a scramble for the Red Sea, with the UAE, Turkey, and Ethiopia all vying for control of strategic ports like Berbera.

Happening today

Cairo’s favorite parlor game is once again being played as wags in the capital city speculate about whether Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly will be asked to form a new government when the next House of Representatives is seated.

Why all this chatter about a new cabinet or PM? Cabinet’s term will effectively come to an end when the current House of Representatives is dissolved next month at the end of its five-year term.

Voters are heading to the polls today in the second day of runoffs for 19 seats where earlier results were tossed due to irregularities in voting. The final election results should be certified by Sunday, 4 January.

And then what? Cabinet typically offers its resignation when a new House is elected and the president then asks a prime minister to form a government and select ministers. The newly-formed cabinet has to present its program to the House of Representatives for approval within 30 days of the government being formed.

Briefly noted

#1- The Pharaohs downed South Africa 1-0 this weekend to become the first side to make the final 16 at the African Cup of Nations. The final 16 get underway on Saturday, 3 January; the final is scheduled for Sunday, 18 January.

#2- Activist Alaa Abdel Fattah arrived in Britain on Friday after authorities lifted his travel ban. “I’m delighted that Alaa Abd el-Fattah is back in the UK and has been reunited with his loved ones, who must be feeling profound relief,” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer wrote on X. Alaa was pardoned this past September, adding, “Alaa’s case has been a top priority for my government since we came to office. I’m grateful to President Sisi for his decision to grant the pardon.

Setting the record straight

Our friends at SODIC have issued a firm denial following local media reports that its top leadership was referred to trial in a dispute over property delivery. The company characterizes the claims as a rehash of a six-year-old case that was previously dismissed by the public prosecutor’s office, according to the statement (pdf) from the real estate company.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the MENA-IndiaCorridor?

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Data point

61% — the growth in the number of credit cards in Egypt over just four years, with the total count standing at 6.7 mn as of June, according to the CBE’s latest data (pdf). Over the same period, the number of ATMs rose 52% to 26k, while point-of-sale machines increased 49% to 258k.

Credit card issuances target the top 10% of income earners, with the real payment revolution taking place on mobile wallets as well as parallel rail systems including EGX-listed Fawry and state-owned Instapay.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s going to be a cool day in the capital city today, with a high of 19°C and an overnight low of 10°C — pretty much the pattern you can expect through next weekend, plus or minus a degree.

The big story abroad

Geopolitics dominated the weekend as businesses around the world downed tools for Christmas.

The big story in our part of the world has to be Israel’s surprise recognition of Somaliland (which we note above in What We’re Tracking Today). Meanwhile, the Financial Times is out with a piece noting that Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes against the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council in Yemen’s Hadhramaut province, bringing “the quiet but consequential Riyadh-Abu Dhabi rivalry” into the open in Yemen and Sudan.

MEANWHILE- Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet Donald Trump in Florida today to close gaps on a 20-point draft deal he says is “90% ready.” The sticking points remain Donetsk territory and security assurances for Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal writes. Russia pummeled the Ukrainian capital for nearly 10 hours ahead of the meeting, the New York Times reports.

AND- Traders in Western markets will start work tomorrow hoping the Santa rally extends through the second trading day of January.

Christmas is just the beginning. At Somabay, the celebrations unfold day by day, night by night, building all the way into the New Year. From rooftop takeovers and beach parties to late-night performances and full-band shows, the season is curated to let you choose your moment and celebrate it your way — right through the final countdown and beyond.

New Year’s and beyond at Somabay.

Celebrate when it feels right: Pick your night. Book your plans.

Discover the full December & NYE calendar here. Welcome the New Year at Somabay.

Central Bank of Egypt closes out 2025 with rate cut pivot to boost growth

The Central Bank of Egypt signaled on Thursday that it has fully pivoted to growth stimulation, closing out 2025 with a 100 bps interest rate cut at its final Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the year. The move brings total easing for 2025 to 725 bps, further ending the ultra-restrictive cycle that defined the Egyptian economy since the March 2024 currency float before rate easing began.

By the numbers: The committee set the overnight deposit rate at 20.00%, the overnight lending rate at 21.0%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 20.50%, according to a statement. Interest rates now stand at their lowest level since January 2024.

Why this matters

It’s another all-clear signal for the business community. Corporate borrowing for any purpose other than short-term opex spending has been effectively frozen for nearly two years with interest rates hovering near 30%. The central bank made clear it is pushing ahead with a careful easing cycle — giving most of us hope that interest rates could hit a level by late next year that spurs companies to once again start borrowing to fund capital expenditures.

The easing cycle is just getting underway

725 bps sounds like a lot, but we’re just at the “beginning or middle” of a longer journey, Al Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genana tells EnterpriseAM. Despite successive cuts, rates remain 1.25% above their pre-EGP float level in March of last year. “What was done in a single day in 2024 took an entire year to unwind,” Genena said.

Even after this cut, real interest rates in Egypt are still among the highest in the world, Genena said. Current real interest rates are between 8-9%, which is historically high for Egypt and “not the norm globally or in stable economies,” he added.

The year ahead should see the central bank putting its rate-cutting cycle up a gear, with Genena forecasting another 800 bps worth of cuts in 2026. This would bring real interest rates to 1-2%, “balancing growth and price stability,” Genena said.

Eating away at rates will also eat away at the country’s debt servicing burden

The move is a significant W for the Finance Ministry. The cut is a “gift” to the treasury, with interest payments recently consuming over 100% of total government revenues in the first four months of the fiscal year, EG Bank Board Member Mohamed Abdel Aal tells us. Every 100 bps drop in rates saves the Finance Ministry some EGP 70-80 mn in annual debt-servicing costs, which can then be shifted toward social spending or other priorities.

Looking ahead

The question for 2026 is no longer if the CBE will cut, but how fast. If the central bank is to hit its ambitious inflation target of 7% (±2%) by 4Q 2026, it will have to strike a delicate balance between tackling inflation and bringing rates down. The central bank has yet to release its MPC meeting calendar for 2026. Its first meeting of the year has happened in February in each of the past five years, although it historically also held meetings in the second half of January.

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Look for strong appetite tomorrow as Finance Ministry tests debt market for the first time after Thursday’s rate cut

The Finance Ministry is set to issue EGP 5 bn in three-year local sovereign sukuk tomorrow, with settlement scheduled for Tuesday, according to auction data from the central bank.

This is the ministry’s first test of the debt market following the CBE’s 100 bps rate cut on Thursday. While the issuance is a re-opening of a series carrying a fixed coupon of 21.224%, tomorrow’s auction will give us all more detail on the market’s new pricing reality. With the CBE’s overnight deposit rate now down to 20.00%, banks and sharia-compliant funds are expected to bid aggressively to lock in these 21%+ returns before the government adjusts future coupons downward.

This fifth tranche brings the total count of sovereign proceeds to EGP 20 bn — but we need appetite for another EGP 180 bn by the end of the fiscal year. The sovereign sukuk program that launched in November is looking to raise EGP 200 bn by the end of June by tapping idle liquidity, namely Islamic banks and sharia-compliant funds that are cut off from traditional T-bills or bonds.

Egypt, China State Shipbuilding Corporation in advanced talks for shipbuilding megaprojects

The Transport Ministry is in advanced talks with China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) for a series of shipbuilding and shipyard projects, a senior government source told EnterpriseAM. The talks, which also include a consortium of other Chinese maritime giants, are yet to land on a final price tag or financing structure. The official suggested they could wrap as early as the first half of the new year.

Talks include the modernization and expansion of the Damietta Shipyard — which currently produces some 60% of Egypt’s fishing vessels — alongside state-owned shipyards in Port Said and Port Tawfik. A Chinese delegation has already completed site visits and a preliminary agreement is reportedly close to being finalized, we were told.

We see this as a play for vertical integration and a natural play on the recent expansion of the domestic steel industry. By localizing the steel-heavy industry shipbuilding with a partner as massive as CSSC (the world’s largest shipbuilder), Egypt could move from exporting raw marine-grade steel to using it in high-value manufacturing.

The move also supports the Sisi administration’s bid to see the national merchant fleet grow to 150 vessels by 2030, up from its previous 36-vessel target. The goal is for at least 100 of these vessels to compete in international maritime transport, reducing Egypt’s reliance on foreign shipping lines for strategic commodities like wheat and fuel.

And it also ties in with a USD 2 bn project to shift the canal from serving as a toll road toa service station pit stop, which two government sources told EnterpriseAM about last month. To prepare for and accelerate the return of Suez Canal traffic, fixed and floating bunkering stations to refuel vessels of all sizes will be developed, along with new maintenance, logistics, and crew-support services, we were told.

Sound smart…

CSSC is a state-owned juggernaut and the world’s largest shipbuilding conglomerate, controlling as much as 23% of the global orderbook. It finalized a massive USD 16 billion merger with its sister company, CSIC, this year in a bid to consolidate its lead over regional rivals.

CSSC dominates the market in tonnage and volume, building everything from naval destroyers to ultra-large container ships. It’s now going after market share previously held by South Korean giants like HD Hyundai and Samsung Heavy Industries at the “high-value” end of the industry, where the two South Korean giants have traditionally led in technologically complex, high-margin vessels like LNG carriers.

Want to dive deeper? Go watch Bloomberg’s How China came to dominate global shipbuilding (runtime: 10:38).

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El Sewedy will lead the FEI again as it morphs from a lobby group into a policy coordination body

Mohamed El Sewedy was re-elected to lead the Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI) until 2029. A fourth term for the veteran business leader will provide continuity, but the big signal here is the composition of the board he will lead.

For the first time, the FEI board will include high-ranking government officials in a move that effectively merges the regulator and the lobby, according to a decree from the Industry Ministry seen by EnterpriseAM. Joining the board this term will be Industrial Development Authority head Nahed Youssef, Export Development Fund head Amani Al Wessal, and Deputy Transport Minister for Railway Affairs Wagdy Radwan. All three were appointed by Deputy PM for Industrial Development Kamel El Wazir.

The Wazir doctrine? By placing the leaders of key regulatory agencies on the board, the government is shifting from a consultative relationship with industry toward one of joint management. It’s going to be an interesting trade-off to watch: Having the regulator in the room means bureaucratic bottlenecks can be addressed in real time, but it could also complicate the FEI’s role as an independent advocate capable of pushing back against state policy.

Falling inflation + aggressive rate cuts in 2025 set the stage for a good year ahead

If 2024 was about averting a meltdown, 2025 was the year our macroeconomic plumbing began to function again. With a record USD 50.2 bn in foreign reserves and an S&P rating upgrade to ‘B’, the Madbouly government shifted its focus to duration and diversification. The headline numbers — 5.2% GDP growth in 3Q 2025 and a cumulative 725 bps cut of interest rates — are the result of a deliberate strategy to replace high-cost hot money with long-term, asset-backed liabilities.

Why this matters: For the business community, the narrative has shifted from “Will we devalue again?” to “It’s time to start growing again.” While the IMF is satisfied — it gave the green light to USD 2.7 bn in fresh funding just last week — the wheels of production are still grindinGoodbye, inflationg against high (albeit falling) real interest rates and a tax environment that is being aggressively overhauled to meet revenue targets.

Goodbye, inflation nation and devaluation doomsayers

The EGP had a much better 2025 than market watchers at the beginning of the year expected it to have. The post-float currency started the year at EGP 50.80 against the greenback following a period of moderate volatility and uncertainty in the market. But as we all got used to a freely traded currency, we learned to embrace healthy volatility and saw the currency appreciate against many of its peers, with it currently changing hands at around the EGP 47.60 mark against the greenback.

A stronger and more stable EGP also helped with efforts to reel in inflation. After kicking off the year with a headline rate of 24.0% in January, the rate of inflation has been slashed in half, coming in at 12.3% in November. Analysts are in broad agreement that the disinflation trajectory is here to stay — it’s not just a base effect, so say goodbye to the era of repricing every Tuesday.

Price predictability is not just good for everyday consumers being able to afford and plan ahead financially. Businesses wanting to invest long-term will also get a shot in the arm as price stability ended the era of parallel-market pricing for inputs and provided a predictable foundation for 2026 budgeting.

Inflation progress? Cue the rate cuts.

Once inflation was clearly on a downward trajectory, the Central Bank of Egypt moved aggressively to lower the hurdle rate for private investment. Total rate cuts for 2025 reached a cumulative 725 basis points following last Thursday’s decision, bringing the overnight deposit rate down to 20.00%.

This shift is the essential catalyst for a long-awaited surge in CAPEX, as the lowering of the nominal policy rate effectively lowers the bar for project viability across the real economy. For the past eight quarters, internal rate of return requirements for new factories and other projects were prohibitively high, but at a 20% corridor, a vast swathe of “stalled” industrial projects has suddenly become bankable.

Growth at last, growth at last, says the non-oil private sector

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was a barometer for the on-the-ground recovery, finally breaching the neutral 50.0 mark to hit 51.1 in November. Non-oil private sector activity expanded at its quickest pace in five years on the back of an uptick in new orders and output amid easing cost pressures.

Policymakers will be hoping that this signals an end-of-year turnaround for the private sector, with it finally beginning to respond to the improved liquidity and falling interest rate environment.

Bolstering optimism was the economy growing at its highest quarterly rate for three years in 3Q 2025, hitting a 5.3% clip, up a whole 1.8 percentage points from a year prior. Driving the headline figure were expansions in non-oil manufacturing, tech, tourism, and financial services. The higher GDP growth was largely expected as economic activity continues to normalize and regain momentum on the back of better USD availability, predictability, and confidence, Thndr’s Esraa Ahmed told EnterpriseAM at the time.

Progress is balancing the books

Egypt recorded an exceptional primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP for the fiscal year that ended in June, a clear signal of fiscal consolidation that satisfied the IMF’s rigorous review criteria. This surplus was achieved through a 35% increase in tax revenues — reaching EGP 2.2 tn in the elapsed fiscal year — and a rigid cap on non-essential public investment. The challenge moving into 2026 will be maintaining this discipline as the IMF targets an even more ambitious 5% primary surplus in the next fiscal year to accelerate debt reduction.

The search for better debt

Egypt moved beyond traditional borrowing in 2025 by collateralizing sovereign assets to lock-in lower financing costs. The allocation of 174 mn sqm of land at Ras Shuqair to the Finance Ministry served as the foundation for the country’s first local ijarah sukuk program. By backing debt with physical land assets like this, the government was able to secure yields approximately 8% lower than traditional, unsecured Treasury instruments. That could help create a new blueprint for managing the debt-to-GDP ratio, which ended the year at around 85%.

The Finance Ministry spent the year aggressively extending the maturity of its debt profile to avoid the short-term traps of previous years. By returning to the Eurobond market for the first time in four years with a USD 2 billion issuance, the state replaced maturing short-term T-bills with much longer-term instruments. This extension of duration is a critical shock absorber, ensuring that global market volatility does not trigger an immediate liquidity crisis at home.

Later in the year, the Finance Ministry launched its second-ever sovereign sukukissuance as a USD 1 bn private placement, which was then followed by another issuance. The country also embarked on the first of many local sukuk issuances, which will support a wider EGP 200 bn sukuk program for the fiscal year. The Finance Ministry has also laid the groundwork for a USD 500 mn return to the Samurai bond market, part of a broader USD 4 bn slate of international debt issuances the ministry wants to make before the end of its current fiscal year in June 2026. Also in the package are Panda bonds, green bonds, and Eurobonds.

The country’s efforts didn’t go unnoticed

The macroeconomic turnaround was validated by international rating agencies, with S&P Global raising Egypt’s long-term sovereign credit rating to B from B-. This upgrade, the first of its kind since 2018, was followed by a positive outlook from Moody’s. These improved ratings were instrumental in lowering the risk premium on Egyptian debt, allowing the state to diversify its borrowing into new markets.

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Egypt’s talk show hosts wonder who will sit at the cabinet table in 2026 — and raised the alarm over Israel’s recognition of Somaliland

Speculation about a potential cabinet shuffle dominated the airwaves last night as talk show hosts parsed whether a change in personnel — including in the PM’s seat — is warranted. The smarter half of the nation’s erstwhile TV power couple (that would be Lamees, if you had any doubt) made a clear case for policy stability, while her more bombastic former-other-half argued for change.

Also on the airwaves last night: What does Israel’s recognition of Somaliland mean for Egypt?

Is Cabinet staying put? Speaking on Al Soura with Lamees El Hadidi, Rep. Mostafa Bakry said Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly struck an optimistic tone late last week after revealing the government aims to “bring [Egypt’s external debt] down to levels the country hasn’t seen in 50 years.” Still, Bakry said that Madbouly staying on could reinforce the view that “there is no change — even if the entire cabinet is reshuffled.” He added that he expects the next prime minister to come from within the current cabinet (watch, runtime: 9:06).

Whoever forms the next government has their work cut out for them. Asked whether either of the two deputy prime ministers could be in line for the top job, Bakry said the decision rests with the president, but argued that the government will need “decisiveness … delivery, forward momentum, an economic revival, and implementing what the current prime minister promised on reducing debt.”

Bakry is clearly worried about the regional backdrop, flagging that Egypt will need a strong PM as the region braces for “dangerous political developments” involving the fragmentation of states and territories — developments that, in his view, will require popular cohesion and broader social buy-in. (More on that below.)

Over on El Hekaya, Amr Adib argued that the debate over Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s tenure is secondary to the need for a fundamental shift in “social and economic policies.” Adib characterized current government policy as “emergency measures” that have reached their limit; keeping them in place will only yield the same results, he argued. Whether the mandate is carried out by Madbouly or a successor “from within the cabinet — to be clear,” Adib insisted the focus must be on implementing a new policy framework (watch, runtime: 4:27).

What new framework? Adib stopped short of explaining what sort of policy shift he’s looking for — and simply skipped over the improvement in the economy and in business confidence over the past 12 months.

Why Somaliland set off alarms in Cairo

It’s part of a wider Israeli policy shift that threatens to destabilize the Red Sea. Commenting on Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, former Assistant Foreign Minister Mohamed Hegazy told Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa that the move fits into a broader regional and international scheme — led by Israel and Ethiopia — aimed at exerting control over Somalia and Sudan (watch, runtime: 4:17). Hegazy warned that threats to Red Sea navigation are not limited to Israel and Somaliland, but also involve “Ethiopia, unfortunately with another regional power, and a global power as well.” The battle, he said, is over “control of shipping lanes, the militarization of the Red Sea, and dominance over the region’s gateways — from the Gulf of Aden to the Bab El-Mandeb strait.” Those dynamics, tied to wider regional tensions including Iran, could have direct negative implications for the Suez Canal, he warned.

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Egypt’s NUCA wraps EGP 20 bn securitized bond issuance

The New Urban Communities Authority completed its eighth issuance, raising EGP 20 bn, according to a statement (pdf) from counsel Dreny and Partners. The issuance was backed by a receivables portfolio from the authority and structured into three tranches rated AA+, AA, and AA- by Meris.

ADVISORS- Al Ahly Pharos, CI Capital, CIB, and AAIB acted as financial advisors and lead arrangers. CIB, NBE, AAIB, Al Baraka Bank Egypt, and the Suez Canal Bank were underwriters. AIIB acted as bookrunner, CIB as custodian, and Baker Tilly as auditor.

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Emerging markets had a blast in 2025 — and the party doesn’t seem likely to end soon, pundits say

Emerging market equities had their best year since 2009 in 2025, and they’re poised to keep their momentum in 2026. Not only are EM stocks outperforming their US peers, but the gap between emerging markets’ bond yields and US treasuries is currently at its smallest in 11 years, Bloomberg reports. Plus: The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 28.2% for the year.

The name of the game for investors this year was diversifying from the US amid concerns around the unpredictability of US policy, a weakened USD, and an improvement in the debt profiles of EMs, diverting more capital than has been seen in decades towards EMs. Bank of America’s head of emerging fixed income David Hauner put it best: “EM bears have gone extinct.”

Forecasts for next year are rosy: JPMorgan expects USD 50 bn in inflows into EM debt funds next year, while Citigroup sees emerging bonds delivering a 5% return.

Investors remain underexposed to EMs, especially after the past few years saw massive outflows resulting from rising interest rates, post-covid headwinds, and geopolitical conflicts, which could be a big part of what’s driving the shift now.

Yes, but: A potentially stronger USD next year could lead to smaller EM gains, especially if the US Federal Reserve delivers fewer interest rate cuts than expected. Still, most analysts are recommending that investors diversify their portfolio and invest in local-currency-denominated EM debt.

Plus: Concerns of an AI bubble are leading to intense volatility in the US. This is causing a shift to investments in Chinese AI and tech stocks as one alternative to the US, as investors look to plow funds into AI-backed securities, but want to steer away from fears of the “circular” AI investment boom in the US.

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EGX30	41,253	-0.6% (YTD: +38.7%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.53	Sell 47.67
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.54	Sell 47.64
Interest rates (CBE)	20.00% deposit	21.00% lending
Tadawul	10,526	-0.1% (YTD: -12.7%)
ADX	10,033	0.0% (YTD: +6.5%)
DFM	6,134	-0.1% (YTD: +18.9%)
S&P 500	6,930	0.0% (YTD: +17.8%)
FTSE 100	9,871	-0.2% (YTD: +20.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,746	0.0% (YTD: +18.0%)
Brent crude	USD 60.64	-2.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.37	+2.9%
Gold	USD 4,533	+1.2%
BTC	USD 87,656	+0.3% (YTD: -6.4%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	987.9	+0.1% (YTD: +27.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.73	+0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	13.60	+1.0% (YTD: -21.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.6% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.2 bn (4.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 38.7% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+3.5%), Orascom Construction (+3.1%), and Valmore Holding (+2.6%).

In the red: Qalaa Holdings (-2.2%), CIB (-1.8%), and Raya Holding (-1.8%).

CALENDAR

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax beaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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