BMI, Oxford Economics trim Egypt growth forecasts as war pressures mount

Monday, 30 Mar 2026

BMI, Oxford Economics trim Egypt growth forecasts as war pressures mount

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Today at a glance

Big Story Today

The recent flurry of growth forecast upgrades is coming to an abrupt, wartime end.

Energy

Israeli state of emergency extension pushes back restart of Leviathan exports to Egypt.

IPO WATCH

Iran war throws a wrench in Egypt’s IPO momentum.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The EGP hit 53.53 yesterday, but it’s only a record on paper.

PLANET FINANCE

Gold market is another safe haven rattled by war.

BLACKBOARD

Egypt hits primary school enrollment targets, but reading literacy rates lag.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The EGP hit 53.53 yesterday, but it’s only a record on paper

Good morning, friends. Today’s issue dives into the impact of the regional war on Egypt’s economy, marked by a dual downgrade in growth forecasts and a weakening EGP that has now crossed the 53 mark against the greenback.

And that’s not all: IPO momentum is nearly frozen due to risk-off market sentiment, and our energy woes have taken another hit after Israel extended its state of emergency, likely depriving us of imports from its Leviathan gas field for a bit longer.

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WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.
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EGP watch

The EGP slid yesterday to breach the EGP 53.50 mark against the greenback, marking its weakest ever position in the official market. By the time bank tellers shut their booths for the day, the USD was being bought for EGP 53.53 and sold for EGP 53.63 at the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, and the private sector lender CIB, representing a 1.5% jump in the value of the greenback.

Our take: Calm your horses, this is only a record low for the EGP on paper. Just two years ago, before the float of the EGP in March 2024, we had seen the USD trade as high as EGP 72 on the black market. Officially a record low? Yes. But in terms of the actual value of the EGP, we’ve been in — and got through — much tougher times before.

The primary culprit behind the EGP’s slide yesterday was the exit of portfolio investments from the domestic debt market, former Industrial Development Bank Chairman Maged Fahmy tells EnterpriseAM. These flows had previously entered by converting foreign currency into EGP to invest in treasuries and other local debt instruments, but “they are now reversing, increasing demand for USD and putting downward pressure on the EGP,” Fahmy explained.

Outflows are also being fueled by a combination of external shocks, including higher global energy prices, risks to Suez Canal revenues, and disruptions to natural gas imports, which are straining Egypt’s foreign currency liquidity and reserves, Faisal Securities Head of Research Iman Marei tells us. FX shortages are also being exacerbated by reductions in hard currency revenues, including remittances, as Egyptians abroad delay sending money home in anticipation of the EGP depreciating further, according to Fahmy.

Watch this space

The country’s startups will soon be listed on a scaled, comprehensive digital database to give international investors an inside look into Egypt’s tech ecosystem, Information Technology Industry Development Agency (ITIDA) CEO Ahmed El Zaher said at the closing event for the Aswan Bootcamp Series attended by EnterpriseAM. The move follows the rollout of the upgraded EgyptInnovate platform, which serves as a centralized hub to connect startups, venture capitalists, and support entities to streamline access to capital, market intelligence, and collaboration.

The state is also looking to support startups outside of the capital, which historically receives the lion’s share of startup-bound investment. To do this, state-led support for startups will increasingly focus on areas outside Cairo, starting with Upper Egypt, according to El Zaher.

The shift is already starting to happen, with El Zaher noting the recent registration of Upper Egyptian startups and the 61 startups graduating from the Aswan Bootcamp Series state-backed accelerator program having collectively secured EGP 200 mn in funding.

TRADE — Will Aswan soon cement itself as Egypt’s export gateway to Africa? The Upper Egyptian city is looking to cluster industrial and commercial projects within dedicated logistics zones as part of a plan to position itself as a strategic gateway to the wider continent, Aswan Governor said yesterday at an event attended by EnterpriseAM. To get private players on board, the state is developing a set of incentives to encourage exports to the African Continental Freetrade Area.

On the diplomatic front

Egypt takes part in Iran talks in Islamabad: Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met yesterday with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan in Islamabad, in an effort to de-escalate the US-Israeli war on Iran. Five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that the nations meeting in Pakistan have proposed maritime reforms to Washington to stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pitching a new way to manage Hormuz: A Pakistani source told Reuters that proposals sent to Washington ahead of the meeting — including an Egyptian plan — suggested “Suez Canal-style fee structures” to help stabilize flows through the waterway. Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are also reportedly mulling establishing a consortium to oversee oil flows through Hormuz, Pakistani sources told the newswire.

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Happening today

There’s never been a better — or worse — time for the annual Egypt EnergyShow to kick off, with the three-day event opening today amid arguably what could become the world’s most severe energy crisis.

We will be on the ground for all three days in search of announcements and to get the inside look from industry experts we speak to. If you’re attending and want a chat or for us to interview a member of your team, drop us a line at editorial@enterprisemea.com.

Open call

The Startup Factory and ADCB’s Scale Up program is accepting applications for its next cohort until 10 April. The program is looking for early-stage and growth-stage startups “with a product, early traction, or revenues, looking to grow their business and build a strong banking foundation.” Selected startups will receive zero-minimum-balance business accounts, startup-friendly banking products and digital services, access to a founder network, and more.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s a dry and mostly sunny day in Cairo today, with a high of 24°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler, but still sunny in Alexandria, with a high of 20°C and a low of 10°C.

The big story abroad

Tehran has signaled that it is ready to confront a land invasion by Washington, as 3.5k US troops arrive in the region. The Pentagon is reportedly prepping for weeks of ground operations in the Islamic Republic, which would likely be limited to targeted raids by special forces and infantry, rather than a full-scale invasion, US officials told The Washington Post.

US President Donald Trump wants to “take the oil in Iran,” and indicated a willingness to seize Iran’s key export hub of Kharg Island, he told the Financial Times. Trump said that his “preference would be to take the oil,” in a similar move to what his administration did in Venezuela.

Pakistan is positioning itself as a broker for talks, signaling its readiness to facilitate peace talks between Washington and Tehran. “Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate their talks,” the country’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said yesterday following discussions with his counterparts from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. We have more on the talks in the news well, above.

Houthi strikes send ripples in the oil market: The entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the fray pushed Brent up more than 3% to USD 116.43 per barrel, putting it on track to hit a record monthly gain. The global benchmark is up around 60% since the beginning of the month.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how, despite primary education completion rates hitting 96%, only 34% of students achieve a minimum reading proficiency level by the end of the primary period.

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The Big Story Today

The recent flurry of growth forecast upgrades is coming to an abrupt, wartime end

After a welcome flurry of growth forecast upgrades at the start of the year, the country is facing a wartime reality check. Fitch Solutions’ research arm BMI now sees GDP growth ending the current fiscal year at 4.9% y-o-y, down 0.3 percentage points from its previous forecast, it said in a recent report laying out its baseline assumption that the war will last only four weeks. Oxford Economics likewise downgraded its 2026 forecast 0.4 percentage points to 4.5% y-o-y in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. The downgrades come as the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development has recently warned its growth forecast for Egypt and other affected countries is “likely to be revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points” in its June update if energy prices were to remain elevated.”

BMI also revised down its growth projections for the coming fiscal year by 0.2 percentage points to 5.2%, reflecting a weaker starting point and a lack of expectations of an immediate, speedy recovery.

“Egypt is particularly exposed to the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East,” Oxford Economics said in its explanation for the downgrade. Both BMI and Oxford Economics point to Egypt’s reliance on energy imports, reduced Suez Canal transit volumes, and geographic vulnerability to trade disruptions behind their assessments.

Consumers — and not just the state — will have to tighten their belts, according to BMI, which sees household consumption as inflation averages at 13.0% for 2026, up from a previous forecast average of 11.7%. In addition to price hikes from the government for fuel, transport, and other utilities and commodities, BMI sees a depreciating EGP and higher freight rates also adding to consumer prices.

While imports will become more expensive, exports are expected to fall, with a projected 0.1 percentage point fall in net exports on the back of strained Suez Canal traffic and decreasing tourism revenues, according to BMI.

Real investment growth is likewise expected to fall on the back of “higher input costs facing businesses, alongside some reallocation of public spending away from capital expenditure towards social support and essential imports,” according to Fitch’s research unit. Because of this and an expected fall in FDI inflows — especially from Gulf-led projects — BMI now sees real investment growth for the year coming in at 5.8% y-o-y, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous outlook.

But the long-term view isn’t as gloomy as on first impressions, with both of BMI’s figures remaining above Egypt’s recent historical averages and still marking the strongest expansions since the fiscal year 2021-22.

The elephant in the room remains that the war will very likely be more prolonged than hoped, with BMI signalling a further 0.4 percentage point cut to its outlook to 4.5% y-o-y if the war lasts an additional four weeks.

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Energy

Egypt’s energy strain deepens as Leviathan restart slips again

Production at the Leviathan gas field and its exports to Egypt look set to remain on hold with Israel extending its state of emergency until 14 April. The prolonging of the decision that came into effect on 28 February, following US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, means that the Israeli state maintains authority over if and when to restart production and exports.

Leviathan partner NewMed Energy had been confident of a quick return to production, with its CEO Yossi Abu saying mid-month that it and Chevron could be given the thumbs up to restart operations in “hours to days, not weeks.”

Why this matters: Prior to the shut-off, Leviathan was utilizing its newly expanded 1.2 bcf/d capacity to supply Egypt with 830 mmcf/d of gas in January. The resumption of flows would significantly ease the energy strain facing Egypt and open up a much more affordable option to spiraling LNG import costs.

In the much longer term, the timetable for receiving flows from Cyprus’ 3.1 tcf Cronos gasfield has also been pushed back, with industry publication Mees reporting that contractual disputes between Eni and Cyprus have stalled plans to reach a final investment decision (FID). Until recently, the project’s partners Eni and TotalEnergies had been expected to announce the FID at the Egypt Energy Show that kicks off today.

The delay looks likely to make Egypt’s hopes for first gas in 2027 very unlikely, with Mees reporting that “a lengthy delay would push potential first gas past 2028.” Egypt is keen to make progress on receiving flows so it can liquify the natural gas at its facilities in Damietta for re-export as LNG, in addition to leaning on the option to divert 20% of flows to the domestic market when needed.

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Chevron energy Eni Leviathan NewMed Energy oil and gas TotalEnergies

IPO WATCH

Why the IPO pipeline is delayed but not dead

With regional tensions threatening to freeze IPO momentum, analysts tell EnterpriseAM the IPO pipeline remains in play. “Long-term institutional money will be availed to invest in quality assets,” Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena tells us.

The key issue now is timing. Issuers are likely to wait until markets allow them to “fetch the highest valuation” — a view he shares with Thndr Head of Research Amr El Alfy, who told us he expects the IPO machine to start turning again in 2H, assuming the conflict is short-lived. “I don’t expect an IPO rush [in the second half of the year], but could see at most one IPO per month,” even if near-term volatility slows the schedule, he said.

TCV is among those still preparing for a window: Tanmiya Capital Ventures’ (TCV) Managing Partner Mohamed Mahgoub confirmed that plans to list its portfolio company Copad Pharma remain on track, with a potential 4Q IPO. The company tapped EFG Hermes to quarterback the transaction, Mahgoub tells EnterpriseAM, which ultimately depends on two scenarios: markets showing a clear recovery or investors simply “getting used to the war.”

CIB as the IPO proxy

Valuations just aren’t attractive enough right now. The Commercial International Bank (CIB) — widely seen as the bellwether for Egypt’s banking sector and one of the largest recipients of foreign investment on the EGX — is currently trading at a steep reduction to its historical levels, Genena noted. The stock used to command around 8-10x earnings but is now sitting at roughly half those multiples, which he said was a key sticking point for the state’s privatization drive.

Issuers are hesitant to bring assets to market when even the benchmark name is still priced in a risk-off environment. “Hopefully, we can start to see this rerating process after Eid if military operations come to an end,” Genena said.

The reduction becomes even clearer when you look at CIB versus its GCC peers. Foreign investors tend to benchmark the stock against GCC banks because it sits in the same global indices – including the Pan Arab Index and MSCI Emerging Markets — putting it in direct competition for the same USD, Genena explained. As a result, it’s priced using the same regional yardsticks, with investors typically targeting dividend yields of 2-4%.

Who’s better placed?

Defensive sectors whose revenues are less tied to global economic cycles may be more willing to test the market. “These names include Bosta, Breadfast, and El Ezaby Pharmacy,” El Alfy said. Meanwhile, cyclical sectors such as real estate developers and non-bank financial services firms may choose to delay offerings until volatility subsides.

IPO candidates typically list at a reduction to their estimated fair value to attract investors, El Alfy said, but those reductions could widen for cyclical companies while defensive names may face smaller valuation haircuts. Ultimately, two factors will determine whether IPOs move forward: investor appetite and market liquidity.

The outlook? “A declining market does not usually take long to reverse as long as we are in a long-term uptrend,” El Alfy said, adding that he believes the IPO market will regain momentum when geopolitical volatility fades and global sentiment toward emerging markets stabilizes.

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capital markets EGX IPO watch

Also on our Radar

Telda bundles payments, card issuance, and investing into a single platform

Telda launched a securities trading service, allowing users to invest in EGX-listed stocks and investment funds without brokers or fees and to open accounts digitally using a national ID, the fintech said in a statement (pdf). Users can track prices, execute trades, and link investments to their Telda card for instant deposits and withdrawals.

Why this matters: This makes the company the first in Egypt to bundle payments, card issuance, and investing into a single platform. Telda claims users can sell a position and immediately spend that liquidity via their card or withdraw it at an ATM.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR capital markets EGX Fintech

PLANET FINANCE

Gold nears bear market territory

Gold is teetering dangerously close to bear market territory, with prices falling 19% from their January peak as the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint sparks an international energy crisis and triggers more stagflation fears, Bloomberg reports. It’s not just gold — bonds, another typical hedge, have been caught in a rout since the start of the war, while BTC is at roughly half its pre-war peak.

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also slated for the largest outflow in nearly four years following an almost 14-month-long rally, with all inflows of this year already erased, Bloomberg reported elsewhere.

Still, some are buying the dip: Gold prices ticked up 3% higher by market close on Friday after banks and money managers stepped in. Persistently high inflation and fiscal tightening are among key factors that continue to make gold attractive, Fidelity International’s George Efstathopoulos told the business news service.

But other headwinds could keep pressuring prices: Central banks could also start offloading gold holdings to prop up currencies, with Turkey already starting to sell and swap over USD 8 bn worth of gold reserves to the same end. Energy import-dependent countries are among those that have accumulated gold holdings recently, and they might look to sell them off in an environment of sustained high oil prices to shore up funds.

However, for now, a slowdown in accumulating reserves rather than a full-blown selloff is more likely, TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali said. Citigroup’s Max Layton expects gold to be higher within a year following a temporary shakedown.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are down sharply in early trading this morning as the regional war shows no signs of slowing down. Japan’s Nikkei is down over 4.6%, and South Korea’s Kospi is down 3.8%. Over on Wall Street, equity futures are in the red as investors await the March job report out at the end of the week.

EGX30	46,404	-1.3% (YTD: +10.9%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 53.52	Sell 53.66
USD (CIB)	Buy 53.53	Sell 53.63
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	11,076	-0.1% (YTD: +5.6%)
ADX	9,597	-0.1% (YTD: -4.0%)
DFM	5,511	-0.1% (YTD: -8.9%)
S&P 500	6,369	-1.7% (YTD: -7.0%)
FTSE 100	9,967	-0.1% (YTD: +0.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,506	-1.1% (YTD: -4.9%)
Brent crude	USD 116.55	+3.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.03	+3.3%
Gold	USD 4,524	+2.6%
BTC	USD 65,841	-0.8% (YTD: -24.9%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,040	+0.1% (YTD: +4.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	148.74	-0.4% (YTD: -2.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	31.05	+13.2% (YTD: +107.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.3% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 6.2 bn (5.7% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 10.9% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+6.6%), Egypt Aluminum (+6.2%), and Orascom Investment Holding (+3.9%).

In the red: Abu Qir Fertilizers (-4.5%), Edita (-4.2%), and Rameda (-4.0%).

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Financial Markets gold Planet Finance

Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

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BLACKBOARD

The reading literacy gap in Egypt’s primary schools

On paper, Egypt has nearly achieved universal primary education, with completion rates hitting 96% in 2024, according to the Unesco’s recently released Global Education Monitoring report (pdf). This puts Egypt ahead of many of its regional peers on these two points, outpacing Morocco’s 84% and Iraq’s 83% completion rate.

The country also seems to have a comparatively decent out-of-school rate for the age cohort of just 4%, which again leads many of the other Arab nations — at points by a substantial margin. By comparison, out-of-school rates for primary education are 39% in Libya, 27% in Lebanon, and 8% in the much wealthier Gulf nation of Bahrain.

But the headline figures hide a concerning fact — only 34% of Egyptian primary students achieve a minimum reading proficiency level by the end of the primary period. In mathematics, that figure drops to 29%.

On this metric, Egypt falls behind some of the nations that it surpasses in enrollment numbers. Some 41% of Moroccan primary students reach a minimum level of reading proficiency. Likewise, 71% of children finishing primary education in Bahrain hit the mark.

Why this matters: Ask any teacher, and they will tell you that reaching reading proficiency before the end of primary schooling is one of the most important milestones for a child’s education trajectory. While primary education focuses on learning to read, education after this moves to reading to learn. Starting post-primary education without a solid reading skill foundation to build on has a snowballing effect that carries on all the way to the students becoming adults and joining the labor market, as students find it more difficult to catch up.

Quantity over quality

The out-of-school rate in primary education fell 9 percentage points between 2015 and 2024, alongside a 4 percentage point improvement in completion rates over the same period. This is no small feat given that the primary age population over these years grew 4.1 mn — or 34.8% — over this period to 15.9 mn, according to our calculations using Capmas data.

But getting a child to enroll in primary school is only the first step. While the construction of 150k classrooms for all school ages over the past decade has helped accommodate greater student numbers, attendance and not dropping out doesn’t necessarily mean that children will learn the necessary skills they need to. Adequate teacher numbers, supportive class densities, and a supporting academic framework are essential for proper learning.

The government acknowledges that class sizes are a problem and has committed to reducing class density for all age groups to 30 students per class by 2030, down from 40 students last fiscal year, in its second edition of the National Narrative for Comprehensive Development (pdf). This will be supported by bringing down the student-to-teacher ratio to 20:1 by the end of the decade, down from 29:1 last fiscal year, and by focusing on high-density governorates such as Giza, Assiut, Minya, Sohag, Fayoum, Qena, Cairo, Beni Suef, and Qalyubia.

Smaller classrooms mean more teachers, but recruiting them remains a challenge. Egypt lost 127k teachers between 2018 and 2023, which the Education Ministry plans to address by hiring 167k contract teachers and raising the per-lesson rate from 20 EGP to 50 EGP.

Overcrowded classrooms risk what those in education call learning poverty — where children are in school, but not learning. This not only fails to give the children the education that they deserve as a right in and of itself, but also harms the quality of entry-level labor that the country and the companies operating here need.

One key fix could be pre-primary education

Only 31.2% of pre-primary age children are enrolled in some sort of educational establishment, meaning that of the 4.7 mn children in this two-year age group, only 1.5 mn are receiving pre-primary schooling. This period is important for what educators call emergent literacy, where children build print and phonological awareness along with a knowledge of the alphabet, in addition to the groundwork for other important cognitive functions.

The state’s count of pre-primary enrolled children is even lower, with its 2030 roadmap saying that only 22.8% were in pre-primary education.

The state’s education roadmap for 2030 points to a 32% deficit in early childhood centers recorded in the fiscal year 2022-23. To bridge this gap, the plan proposes facilitating licensing for private nurseries and allowing private schools to host early-childhood classrooms, in addition to introducing new kindergarten curricula alongside staff training initiatives. By 2030, the government wants to increase the gross enrollment rate for children in pre-primary education to 35%.

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Blackboard Education

CALENDAR

2026

MARCH

30 March-1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition (EGYPES).

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE

15 June (Monday): Seventh review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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