At last, we have a USD 35 bn gas deal in place

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What We're Tracking Today

Egypt is rewriting the rule book for how it plans to develop its Mediterranean coast

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a busier-than-usual THURSDAY after news broke overnight that our neighbors to the east have signed-off on a long-delayed USD 35 bn natural gas export agreement.

We’d love not to do business with Zioland, but the facts are stark: Industry and households alike are hungry for natural gas, and this agreement locks-in a regular supply at a favourable price. It’s good for business, good for households, good for the wider economy — and could help boost export receipts, too. What do we use for a “hold your nose” emoji?

MEANWHILE- The Madbouly government’s policy maturity is on display this morning in a couple of stories, including an exclusive look at the type of incentives and regulatory fixes it hopes will help shift the tenor of our debt stock a bit more toward the “medium term” end of the spectrum. The Tourism Development Authority, meanwhile, deserves kudos for granting our friends at Karm Holding land for a 40 MW off-grid solar station that will help power tourism destinations. It’s the first time the TDA has allocated land for green power under the usufruct system.

AND- We have for you the demystification of that MTO for Alex Containers and color on the volume of FDI that officials here expect from Qatar over the next 12 months.

^^ We have all of this and more in this morning’s news well, below.

Happening today

It’s your last chance to head to the polls, with runoff voting in Egypt for the House of Representatives entering its second and final day today. The results will be announced on Thursday, 25 December.

BACKGROUND: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi called on the Elections Authority to review appeals filed by several candidates amid allegations of fraud in the first round of the parliamentary vote, setting up re-runs in 19 districts across Giza, Fayoum, Assiut, Sohag, Qena, Alexandria, and Beheira.

Watch this space

REAL ESTATE — The Madbouly government has started rewriting the rulebook for the North Coast. The New Urban Communities Authority is currently finalizing a master plan for a 400 km stretch of coastline extending from Marina all the way to the Libyan border, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM.

Until that plan is complete, private developers can expect coastal plot allocations to be largely on hold, we were told. The move away from outright land sales to a long-term leasing model and public-private partnerships mirroring the Ras El Hekma template will mean the state will secure funds up front and take a cut from future revenues.

Why it matters: If you’re a developer, the rules of the game just changed. Goodbye land banking — you can no longer buy a plot, sit on it for five years, and flip it or build a few chalets. A long-term lease model will presumably require active work on-site and favors the kind of year-round integrated destination the government has been pushing for. But with pricing an open question, it’s unclear whether this is good news for smaller, less cash-rich developers who are already priced-out of the North Coast market.

What’s next? Survey teams are already on the ground in areas including Agiba, Marsa Matrouh, and around the Libyan border. Officials will be drip-feeding announcements to the market over the coming year, we’re told.

TAX — The Finance Ministry has an EGP 600 bn carrot it thinks might be able to tempt companies to cough up their late tax payment fees. The ministry is mulling a one-off partial waiver of late tax payment fees that could see 30-100% of penalties written off from companies’ balance sheets, which it says stand at around EGP 600 bn, two senior government sources tell EnterpriseAM.

Those who apply to pay their late fees earliest will be in line for the highest waivers under the proposed plan.

PRIVATIZATION: Naguib Sawiris may be pivoting away (for now) from the country’s cooling real estate market, but the state’s airport privatization push could be his next target. The country’s second-richest person said he’s forming a consortium with Italian partners to bid for the management and operation of the Hurghada International Airport, which began accepting bids last week (watch, runtime; 32:11). Luxor and Sohag airports may be next in his sights, he suggested.

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The Big Story Abroad

Oil traders are watching carefully this morning after Venezuela said it would have its navy escort oil tankers from port in response to US President Donald Trump’s naval blockade of the country’s oil industry.

^^ The must read: Oil rises as Trump's Venezuela blockade takes edge off global crude surplus concerns (Reuters).

ALSO- Warner Bros Discovery’s board rebuked Paramount Skydance’s “inferior” GCC-backed offer and urged shareholders to accept Netflix’s bid. Netflix is offering less, but some pundits think the offer stands a better chance of passing regulatory muster as it would see WBD first spin off its cable TV assets, including CNN and Discovery.

AND- BP’s Murray Auchincloss is out as CEO after less than two years. He’s being replaced by Meg O’Neill, who’s coming in from Australia’s Woodside Energy. She’ll be BP’s third CEO in five years.

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is in for another windy day today, with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority forecasting stiff, intermittent winds sweeping the capital. Our favourite weather app says to expect a high today of 20°C in the capital city and an overnight low of 9°C.

Christmas is just the beginning. At Somabay, the celebrations unfold day by day, night by night, building all the way into the New Year. From rooftop takeovers and beach parties to late-night performances and full-band shows, the season is curated to let you choose your moment and celebrate it your way — right through the final countdown and beyond.

New Year’s and beyond at Somabay.

Celebrate when it feels right: Pick your night. Book your plans.

Discover the full December & NYE calendar here. Welcome the New Year at Somabay.

Israel advances USD 35 bn natural gas export agreement with Egypt

Egypt locked in a long-term energy backstop after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed off overnight on the stalled USD 35 bn natural gas export agreement. The deal will see Chevron and its partners in the Leviathan gas field, NewMed Energy and Ratio Energies, export 130 bcm of gas to Egypt between 2026 and 2040, Netanyahu said in a televised statement overnight (watch, runtime: 5:30). The agreement is the largest in Israel’s history, Netanyahu noted.

Why it matters

The supply agreement will play a critical role in stabilizing Egypt’s natural gas supply, which has struggled to balance rising domestic demand and with a fall in local production supply, thanks in large part to technical challenges with the massive offshore Zohr field. That’s had us importing more and more LNG to keep the lights on and prevent a return to the days of rolling blackouts.

It will also curb our natural gas import bills: The Madbouly government had earlier secured LNG supply through 2026 at a total estimated cost of USD 8 bn after signing agreements with six international energy companies, a government source in the energy sector previously told EnterpriseAM.

Why Israel, you may wonder? It’s cheap (so less pressure on our FX reserves) and the infrastructure is already in place (so no time delay to build or rent infrastructure — and no capex or leasing costs). The volume we’ll be importing from Israel could come in as much as USD 28 bn cheaper than had we bought the same volumes on the open market at current prices, Al Arabiya suggests.

And our LNG re-export ambitions will get a shot in the arm, allowing us to use existing liquefaction plants to re-export the gas as LNG to Europe. Liquefying and exporting as much as 60% of the gas we import from Israel could generate c. USD 22 bn in revenue here in Egypt, Al Arabiya reports.

BACKGROUND- Egypt and Israel first inked an agreement in early August that would see flows first increase from 4.5 bn cubic meters in 2025 to 6.5 bn cubic meters as early as 2026. Netanyahy then froze the agreement in September amid rising Israeli-Egyptian tensions over the war in Gaza and Cairo’s military deployments in Sinai. The deadline to obtain an export permit from Israel’s Energy Ministry for the project was later pushed to 31 December.

In other energy news…

Britain exempted our Zohr gas field from Russia sanctions, allowing continued payments linked to the project until October 2027, Reuters reports. Russian oil player Rosneft holds a 30% stake in Zohr alongside BP (10%) and majority-owner Eni. Rosneft was sanctioned by the UK and US in October, part of the fallout from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The British government gave no explanation to the carve-out.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Qatar’s Al Mana Group commits to sustainable aviation fuel plant in Egypt

The Madbouly government thinks it can net as much as USD 10 bn in inbound investment from Qatar’s private sector and government through the end of 2026, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM.

By the numbers: The figure includes some USD 2.0-2.5 bn from Qatari companies in sectors including manufacturing, ports and logistics, and hospitality, the source added.

But entities affiliated with Qatar’s government are on track to cut the biggest checks, including:

Alam El Rum: Officials in Cairo are working to set the Mediterranean coastal development on the right track. It’s expected to bring in USD 3.5 bn in immediate cashflow as part of a larger, USD 29.7 bn investment envelope;

A Red Sea development widely believed to be in the pipeline could net as much as USD 4 bn.

Next in the Qatar queue: Green Sky Capital, which will build a USD 200 mn plant with a nameplate capacity of 200k tons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable diesel (HVO), and industrial bio-products. Green Sky is a unit of Al Mana Group, a high-profile Qatari conglomerate. Shell Aviation has inked a long-term agreement to purchase the full production of the project, which will carry the brand name SAFFly Egypt. A Shell statement said production at the plant should start by 2027.

By the numbers: SAF has an environmental footprint up to 80% lower than traditional aviation fuel. SAFFly Egypt could create as many as 700 direct and indirect jobs, Hebatalla Hozayen, the company’s general manager, said.

SAFFly could plug into a new government-backed collection system for used cooking oil, the feedstock for SAF. The Madbouly government has been working to formalize the supply chain for used cooking oil, having recently launched a collection system that targets 500k tons by 2030 and 730k tons by 2035.

Competition for spent French-fry oil? The state’s own planned USD 530 mn SAF complex in Alexandria — which is being developed with technology licensing from Honeywell — also needs cooking oil as feedstock.

The wildcard…

Qatar’s investment mix here could still include the former National Democratic Party (NDP) headquarters in downtown Cairo. A Qatari-Egyptian consortium is a finalist for the rights to redevelop the prime Nile-side land, we have previously reported.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Looking at Egypt next year? Here’s what to watch

For anyone who’s been watching Egypt’s privatization plans, 2025 was a year on pause, with painfully little movement in the IPO pipeline. Monsef Morsy, CI Capital’s head of research, argues that next year could be different thanks to lower interest rates, clearer reform signals, and a more serious approach to privatization. The EGX, he thinks, could finally come off life support.

For the EGX to work, two things need to happen

#1- Falling policy rates — globally and locally: When rates are high, investors park their money in fixed income, Morsy says. Investors look at equities when falling rates send them looking for growth. “Global monetary easing will mean capital flows from developed markets to emerging markets,” he notes.

But won’t they be looking at Saudi Arabia and the UAE before Egypt? The two big Gulf markets still attract the lion’s share of investor attention — no question, he said. But that doesn’t automatically crowd Egypt out. Why? Morsy says that the funds that allocate to Egypt are often not the same as those focused exclusively on Saudi. The EGX is small, and even modest foreign inflows can have a big impact as some investors actively look beyond the Saudi-UAE trade. “I think Egypt will be among the top destinations in terms of deploying funds in 2026.”

CI Capital expects Egypt to cut interest rates by around 600 basis points in 2026. Yes, bond yields will fall, but we’ll look much safer from a credit-risk perspective, he says. “Even with a 6 percentage point drop next year, we'll still be operating at a positive real yield going forward. I think the CBE will be aiming to keep real yields at a 3% positive. So this will definitely remain attractive to foreign investors.” Foreign money, he says, will be interested not just in bonds, but in equities too.

Data points: The CBE left interest rates unchanged last month. The overnight deposit rate stands at 21.00%, the lending rate at 22.00%, and the main operation and discount rates at 21.50%. Annual urban inflation eased 0.2 percentage points in November to end the month at 12.3%.

#2- Follow through with promises made to investors: Investors don’t just care what the government says — they care that it follows through, said Morsy. He added that while lower rates will help, IPOs are really a byproduct of stability and confidence, both of which are starting to fall into place.

Big government land sales can bring in cash, but it’s transient, said Morsy, noting that what really moves the needle for investors is opening real businesses to the private sector. What’s a serious signal the government wants that? One thing could be allowing private operators to manage the airports, he said, adding that we could start with Hurghada Airport. “It’s a strategic asset and impacts strategic sectors such as tourism… This is something to watch out for and it shows we mean business.”

Then there’s FX stability + exports-driven industries

FX stability has helped bring remittances back strongly, and they “will keep coming in as long as we keep a stable FX rate. I think the current FX rate, I'd say, is at a good level, especially as long as the FX rate is moving with the inflation differential we have with our biggest trade partners — which is exactly what the CBE says it wants.” Egypt has been trading in roughly the same FX range for months, he said, adding that the balance of payments is holding up, reserves are growing gradually, and FCY inflows are financing the economy.

“Exports have been picking up over the past couple of quarters, and if you look at GDP growth per quarter, export-driven industries have been one of the main drivers,” said Morsy, highlighting that companies like TMG, Edita, and Cleopatra have successfully expanded their international reach. Still, there’s plenty policymakers can do to support the sector.

REMEMBER- Amr Helal, CI Capital’s CEO of the sell-side investment bank, told us earlier this month that foreign investors are closely watching export-oriented companies, seeing them as a hedge against FX volatility, thanks to their natural FX earnings and competitive cost structures.

What’s quietly improving on the EGX

Some of the notable achievements in 2025 mentioned by Morsy include a rise in market capitalization, improved trading liquidity, and a growing number of stocks now meeting the minimum size requirements for foreign investors. “This is something very important for foreign investors to start looking at because many of the foreign investors have thresholds. They have minimum levels in terms of deployment into stocks, with a minimum level of liquidity, and a minimum of market capitalization. So these improvements would start attracting foreign investors.”

With just two trading weeks left in the year, the benchmark EGX30 is up 42.3% YTD.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Why AD Ports is launching an MTO for Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling

ADQ is consolidating its holdings of Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling Company (ALCN on the EGX) in one platform — is it a prelude to something bigger? The stripped-down language in regulatory filings often doesn’t tell the full story:

The headline: AD Ports Group is launching a mandatory tender offer for EGX-listed ALCN, a move that would give the Abu Dhabi ports operator direct majority control of one of Egypt’s largest container terminal operators.

What it really means: AD Ports kinda-sorta already has control of the company — the MTO is just making it official. AD Ports bought a 19.3% stake in ALCN last month from the PIF’s Saudi Egyptian Investment Company. Alpha Oryx, a sister company of AD Ports under their shared parent ADQ, owns 32%. That effectively means Abu Dhabi’s premier sovereign wealth fund already controls ALCN through two vehicles. The tender will consolidate those holdings under one roof — AD Ports.

Why it’s going down this way: Under Egyptian securities law, any shareholder that wants to acquire 33% or more of a listed company has to launch an MTO for up to 100% of the company’s shares.

The details: AD Ports is offering EGP 22.99 per share, targeting “close to 32%” uptake to secure majority control. The Madbouly government, which holds 40%, isn’t selling — it’s in Alex Containers for the long term, waiting for the asset to appreciate before monetizing further, we’re told. The transaction is expected to close in 2Q 2026 if AD Ports gets the green light from the Financial Regulatory Authority, among other agencies.

Why it matters: ALCN operates Alexandria and El Dekheila ports (which account for c. 60% of the Alexandria region’s container capacity) and handles about 1.1 mn TEUs annually. And ALCN is a cash-machine, having turned in an EGP 8.37 bn top line last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 64%. AD Ports, meanwhile, already owns majority stakes in our friends at Transmar (the nation’s premier shipping line) and stevedoring operator TCI. ADP is building Noatum Ports at Safaga terminal (set to start operating by the end of 2026) as well as KEZAD East Port Said.

What to watch: Does ALCN become a standalone investment or the anchor of an integrated Egyptian (or African) ports platform?

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

CIRA Global Ventures invests to grow Falcon Academy into a prominent K-12 platform for schools in the US

The greatest narratives in education are forged not in boardrooms, but in response to profound opportunity. In 2024, CIRA Education, the established education flagship of Egypt, looked beyond its shores and saw a strategic imperative in the world’s most competitive market. This story belongs to CIRA Global Ventures (CGV), CIRA’s dedicated expansion engine, which has delivered a historic first: the institutional presence of an Egyptian education group in the US.

This landmark entrance was secured through the acquisition of a significant minority stake in Falcon Academy, Inc., near the strategic corridor of Washington, DC and Northern Virginia. Falcon Academy is not simply a school; it is a rapid success story, already ranking as one of North America’s fastest-growing institutions.

This foundational investment is the powerful catalyst driving our vision forward. It’s not just about stability; it’s designed for accelerated transformation: skyrocketing our capacity to introduce high school grade levels and pioneering a cutting-edge campus focused on integrated STEM education.

Crucially, Falcon Academy’s success lies in its unique positioning. It is a dynamic hybrid model designed for the modern global citizen. It expertly blends advanced, IB-trained academic programs with the rich grounding of Middle Eastern values and ethics. This specific, high-quality offering fills a massive void, directly serving the extensive and diverse Arab and Asian diaspora across the US.

For CIRA, this is only the prelude. The vision is for Falcon Academy to serve as the blueprint, a scalable model of excellence ready for replication across different US locations. This strategic, step-by-step movement is the living proof of CIRA's commitment to global expansion, reinforcing its leadership position in Egypt while firmly planting its flag on new shores to build a truly international education network.

Gov’t looking to introduce incentives to encourage longer-tenor holdings in hot money market

The Mabdouly government is preparing a new incentive package and regulatory tweaks in a bid to start curbing our reliance on the hottest of hot money flows. The package of measures includes changes to the primary dealers system and the secondary market for local-currency debt, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM.

The problem: Hot money in the local market hit USD 30.9 bn at the end of November, up from USD 25 bn in June. But some USD 9 bn is held by investors who move into and out of positions quickly, chasing high rates. Those are the kind of flows that can reverse fast when conditions change. Slightly lower, but stable, rates tend to attract higher-quality investors; elevated real yields bring riskier capital, the official said.

What’s in the package: Simplified primary dealer procedures, measures to get more banks into the primary market, new incentives that are still being finalized, and a tech upgrade to link trading, settlement, and clearing systems, we’re told. The Egyptian Exchange is separately working to boost liquidity and pricing efficiency — and bring in new investors — for government bonds and T-bills, EGX chief Islam Azzam said at a conference this week. Average daily trading in the secondary market has already hit EGP 60 bn, according to Azzam.

The goal here is to reward primary dealers who attract long- and medium-term institutional capital as officials try to turn the local debt market into a more-structural asset class rather than a high-yield playground.

New instruments on the way: The Ministry is also planning to launch a retail debt market for the first time next year, we’re told, adding to its recent rollout of sovereign sukuk, zero-coupon bonds, and floating-rate notes.

Background: The Finance Ministry launched Egypt’s first-ever local sovereign sukuk in October. The program’s second issuance in mid-November was 11x oversubscribed, prompting the Ministry to increase its December issuances — the third tranche raised EGP 5.5 billion. The sukuk program targets EGP 200 billion by June 2026.

Why it matters: The reforms are designed to support our bid to rejoin JPMorgan’s local-currency EM bond index, from which we were turfed in 2024 when the FX crisis blocked hot-money investors from getting out of the market. Officials at FinMin are also looking to stretch out the maturity profile of Egypt’s debt stock.

When’s it happening? Look for piecemeal implementation over at least a year, the official told us, alongside the rate cuts most market watchers expect in 2026.

Who’s working on it: The Finance Ministry is working with the Central Bank and the Financial Regulatory Authority on the new framework, which aims to boost liquidity in the debt market while attracting longer-term investors.

Karm Holding to set up 40 MW solar power plant in Marsa Allam

The Tourism Development Authority is allocating land for renewable energy projects for the first time, with Cairo-based Karm Holding (formerly Karm Solar) securing the inaugural deal: a 500k sqm site south of Marsa Allam Airport for a 40 MW off-grid solar plant. The usufruct agreement includes a 2% revenue share — a new model for TDA, which has previously only allocated land for hotels and resorts.

By the numbers: The site, regulated by TDA and the New and Renewable Energy Authority, is separate from Karm's existing land in the area and part of a broader 2 mn sqm allocation. Construction could begin as early as 1Q 2026 if final approvals come in time, with first power expected within 36 months, a Karm spokesperson tells us.

The plant will serve multiple tourism customers via a dedicated distribution network and substation. Battery storage is expected to be part of the design to handle overnight demand. Karm is also studying desalination projects in the area through subsidiary KarmWater.

Why it matters: The transaction signals that the Madbouly government sees private solar as critical infrastructure for tourism in remote areas like Marsa Allam, where operators have historically relied on diesel generators. The off-grid model allows decentralized power without waiting for grid extension — and offers a template for other underserved tourism zones while burnishing the industry’s sustainability credentials.

Canada inks agreements for grants to Egypt worth EGP 552 mn to help boost women and food security

Our Thursday Kudos column recognizes members of our community who have done well. Want to send us a submission? Drop it to us on egypt@enterpriseam.com and use the word “Kudos” somewhere in your subject line.

Canada has EGP 552 mn for women’s empowerment

Our friend Ulric Shannon, Canada’s ambassador to Egypt, and Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat inked agreements on three development projects worth a combined EGP 552 million focused on women's empowerment and food security. The projects will roll-out nationwide, including in Aswan, Cairo, Alexandria, Damietta, Upper Egypt, and the Delta.

The agreements add to Canada’s existing EGP 1.4 bn portfolio here, spanning health, education, women's support, and climate-smart agriculture.

Vodafone Egypt takes network reliability awards

Vodafone Egypt secured top honors for both mobile and fixed network performance in the 2025 benchmarking report by global network evaluator Umlaut. The recognition, which marks three consecutive years of mobile leadership and two for fixed networks for the operator, specifically distinguished Vodafone for Best in Network Reliability, the company said in a statement.

The achievement serves as proof of concept for Vodafone’s heavy infrastructure pivot. Over the past 25 years, the company has funneled over EGP 100 bn into the Egyptian market, including a recent EGP 30 bn multi-year agreement with Telecom Egypt to leverage its fiber-optic network.

Of app-ification, golden licenses, and Egyptian banks in Iraq

FRA keeps up the pace in opening up the retail-focused real estate investment market

Six companies have landed licenses from the FRA to operate in real estate funds, factoring, and asset management, according to a statement from the authority. It’s the latest in what we think of as toward the app-ification of Egyptian real estate market.

The breakdown: EFG Corp-Solutions is broadening its NBFI footprint after securing a license to add mortgage finance to its existing operations. Digital brokerage Thndr is now authorized to bundle its own real estate investment funds — moving from a pure distributor to a product creator — while Nawy Shares secured a license to manage funds, effectively institutionalizing the “fractional property” model. Rounding out the list were BFI Cash (factoring), Awayed (real estate funds), and Okaz (asset management).

Golden licenses for two new manufacturing plants

Two projects worth a combined EGP 15.1 bn will move towards completion faster after landing golden licenses from Cabinet.

#1- Mansour Auto’s EGP 6.3 bn MAC Mobility & Manufacturing plant in 6 October City will assemble passenger cars, light and medium transport vehicles, buses, and automotive components. The project is expected to come online in 2027 and could create as many as 1k jobs.

#2- China’s Deli Group is building an EGP 8.8 bn plant in Tenth of Ramadan, where the company will manufacture stationery (including office supplies and school products) as well as sports goods. The project is also expected to come online in early 2027.

Cairo banks eying Baghdad?

A number of Egyptian banks are exploring potential joint ventures in Iraq. Al Borsa writes that Iraqi Central Bank Governor Ali Al Alaq said Egyptian lenders are studying potential partnerships with Iraqi peers.

The why: More Egyptian companies are moving into Iraq. By covering their needs on the ground there, Egyptian lenders can provide the letters of credit, performance bonds, and payroll services that have long been the primary friction points for local contractors and exporters looking to capitalize on Iraq’s massive construction appetite. Non-construction companies are also looking at Iraq, including pathfinder Edita Food Industries, which earlier this year moved a bakery line there in a bid to accelerate its rollout there.

And it's a two-way street, with Al Alaq noting that Baghdad is awaiting CBE approval to reopen the Egyptian branch of Iraqi state-owned lender Rafidain Bank, which was shuttered years ago due to regulatory hurdles.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Wonder why markets are edgy about the “circular nature” of AI investing? We’ve got the rundown.

The global financial press wants the AI bubble to pop so hard you can practically feel it in the air this morning after jitters rattled Wall Street on Wednesday.

What happened? Oracle’s stock tumbled more than 5% yesterday after Blue Owl Capital — its primary data center financing partner — pulled out of a USD 10 bn project, triggering a broader tech selloff that sent the Nasdaq down 1.8% to a three-week low. The Dow and S&P followed suit.

What’s really spooking traders: It’s not one deal, but the structure of the entire AI buildout. Investors are growing uneasy about what’s become common to call the “circular nature” of AI spending. (A bit confused about what this “circular nature” thing is? More on that below.)

That’s brought the dotcom question back on the op-ed pages and on business TV. By nearly every valuation metric, US equities are at their most expensive since 2000. The WSJ’s James Mackintosh goes deep into the structural parallels: heavy infrastructure spending financed by debt (fiber optic cables then, data centers now), a single-minded market focus on one theme, and “picks and shovels” suppliers being the ones who really rake-in the profits (Cisco then, Nvidia now).

That backdrop has traders spooked about today’s US consumer price data. The figure for November is due out this morning (US East coast time). Economists expect headline inflation at 3.1% year-on-year — a cooler print could calm nerves, and a hotter one could accelerate the selloff.

Enterprise Explains

Confused about the “circular nature” of AI investment? We’ve got the rundown for you, because it’s going to be in the headlines more and more heading into 2026. It’s a lot, but it’s not rocket science — just follow the money:

It starts with the data centers Big Tech is building. Oracle, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are collectively committing hundreds of bns to AI infrastructure. Oracle alone has USD 248 bn in data center lease commitments — up nearly 150% in just three months.

Those data centers are serving AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic, who need massive “compute” to train and run their models. The Oracle project that Blue Owl pulled out of? It’s being built for OpenAI.

But Big Tech is also funding the AI companies… Microsoft has poured bns into OpenAI, and Amazon (as of yesterday) looks like it’s following suit. Google and Amazon are investors in Anthropic. Oracle and SoftBank are partners in OpenAI’s massive USD 500 bn (yes, half-a-tn) Stargate infrastructure project. (That’s *far* from an exhaustive list…)

And the AI companies are losing money hand-over-fist. Generative AI is, as the WSJ put it, “priced well below what it costs to produce.” OpenAI, Anthropic, and others are burning cash, subsidizing usage to build market share. Google and Microsoft are the only players using their own cash to grow.

That’s the circle: Tech giants invest in AI startups. The AI startups pay tech giants for cloud compute. Tech giants book revenue and justify more infrastructure spending. The spending is financed by debt — and the debt is repaid by lease income from … the very same AI startups that are burning investor cash.

The worry: What if someone breaks the circle? If investors stop writing tickets because, say, corporate buyers slow their AI rollouts on the back of slow-to-materialize returns on expensive AI pilot projects? Then it all grinds to a stop: The data centers are still there. AI companies, Big Tech, and others building for them are still saddled with the debt they took on to build-out data centers. And the tenants can’t pay.

JP Morgan is (gently) urging caution, Bloomberg has a data-packed rundown if you want more, and pieces by both The Atlantic and the New York Times highlighting a once-obscure company named CoreWeave are must-reads.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets tracked Wall Street losses amid the AI-fueled sell-off, with Japan’s Nikkei leading losses, and South Korea’s Kospi following closely behind. Over on Wall Street, futures are hovering near the flatline as investors await inflation data out later today.

EGX30	41,504	-1.2% (YTD: +39.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.53	Sell 47.66
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.54	Sell 47.64
Interest rates (CBE)	21.00% deposit	22.00% lending
Tadawul	10,414	-0.4% (YTD: -13.5%)
ADX	9,953	-0.3% (YTD: +5.7%)
DFM	6,109	-0.0% (YTD: +18.4%)
S&P 500	6,721	-1.2% (YTD: +14.3%)
FTSE 100	9,774	+0.9% (YTD: +19.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,681	-0.6% (YTD: +16.1%)
Brent crude	USD 60.61	+1.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.12	+2.3%
Gold	USD 4,366	-0.2%
BTC	USD 86,672	-0.9% (YTD: -7.6%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	980.33	+0.1% (YTD: +26.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.72	-0.0% (YTD: +8.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.62	+6.9% (YTD: +1.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.2% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.4 bn (0.8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 39.6% YTD.

In the green: Misr Cement (+6.2%), Raya Holding (+4.9%), and Beltone Holding (+3.5%).

In the red: Orascom Development (-3.4%), CIB (-2.8%), and Ibnsina Pharma (-2.1%).

My Morning Routine: Ahmed El Attal, chairman of El Attal Holding

Ahmed El Attal, chairman of El Attal Holding: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Ahmed El Attal (LinkedIn), chairman of El Attal Holding. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

My name is Ahmed El Attal, and I’m the chairman of El Attal Holding — a leading local player in contracting, real estate development, and industry. I represent the third generation of my family to run the group. I joined the company when I was around 15 years old and became the chairman at the age of 21. I am also married and the proud father of three children, the eldest of whom is 14 years old.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Unlike some others in the sector, I don’t let a suit and tie stop me from climbing onto rooftops to scrutinize every detail, which allows me to oversee the process in person and turn my ideas into reality. In the afternoon, I take on my role at the company headquarters, reviewing results, following up on operations, and meeting with CEOs as well as external partners. This is where I focus on strategy, while a team of young professionals undertakes execution.

El Attal Group was founded in 1948 as a family-owned contracting company, but now, after 80 years, the company has expanded to include several companies specializing in contracting, real estate development, design, and execution of infrastructure projects. But in its history, the group has faced rapid rises followed by sharp declines, confronting the first, second, and even third generations of the company’s management with challenges.

This is what pushed me to focus on transforming the company into an institutionalized operation and adopting governance in its management. This also includes a plan to list on the EGX, which is not only to secure financing, but to ensure better governance, smoother succession from one generation to the next, and the long-term continuity of the company for 100 or even 200 years.

I don't buy the idea that there’s a real estate bubble in Egypt. Annual demand is estimated at around 1 mn units, but supply covers only 50–60% of that demand. The real problem in the sector is funding. The real estate sector needs stronger support from the banking sector through adequate credit facilities and making mortgage financing more broadly available.

The real estate sector is undergoing a remarkable transformation at the moment. Demand is not only strong for residential units, but is also rising for hotel apartments, especially with the opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum. The market has become broader and more diverse — spanning residential, commercial, and administrative segments — but the most important real trend shaping the scene is the growing demand for vacation units.

I’m quite routine-driven. My day begins right after the fajr prayer. I dedicate an hour to reading and browsing physical newspapers, before heading to the gym where I spend about 90 minutes. After that, I visit the group’s construction sites to inspect progress and ensure operations are on track.

The only constants in my day are exercise and prayer. Working out gives me energy and vitality, while prayer brings me spiritual relief, which eases work pressures and clears my mind. To maintain my focus and stay organized, I rely on a small, dedicated team of three people.

Work-life balance is difficult these days. I barely spent time with my eldest daughter when she was young, and I didn’t properly see my kids grow up because I used to work nearly 18 hours a day. But technology helped, and daily video calls kept us connected, although it’s never the same as being physically present. My wife is my greatest supporter. She took on the full responsibility of raising our children, especially since I’d often come home after midnight, leaving her to handle their school routines every morning.

I think I inherited the habit of putting work before family from my father. I really only got to know him by going with him to work. Now I’ve adopted some of the family traditions myself, including Friday being a weekly sanctuary for the whole family. I go to Friday prayer with my kids, then we spend the rest of the day together. This time always restores my balance.

When work’s over, I don’t turn on the TV or scroll through social media. The first thing I do to relax is put my phone completely aside. The only time I really feel disconnected from the world is the 30–60 minutes I spend each night with my wife. She tells me about everything that happened to her and the kids that day. I like taking some time away from all the pressure of decisions and meetings.

What do I look forward to in the future? Spending more of my time with my family and taking a trip without having to worry about any meetings or executive teams. Professionally, I hope to gradually transition into more of an honorary chairman role, where the day-to-day operations run smoothly without my direct involvement. I’d only pop into the office occasionally to review reports and sign off on major decisions. In addition to the EGX listing, we’re pushing ahead with setting up real estate funds, with the group already close to launching its first one. The company will also expand into the Saudi and Omani markets in 2026, widening our global presence, which currently includes Malaysia.

The best advice I ever got came from my father, who told me: “Fear God in what you do.” I believe success comes down to three essential elements: piety, passion, and consistency.

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

May: NEBU Egypt’s Gold & Jewelry Exhibition.

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt will host the fourth edition of the Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax facilitation measures.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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