Good morning, friends. It’s shaping up to be a busy news week as we prepare for the final days of 2023, with no less than three big stories competing for your attention this morning:
- Polls open today in the presidential election. We can expect first-round results next week.
- The IMF could quadruple its assistance package, potentially giving the Madbouly government and CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla the firepower they need to properly float the EGP.
- Will COP28 see an agreement of any form? There are just days left on the official schedule (overtime is always a possibility) as Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil and gas producers look set to reject a final agreement that would phase out hydrocarbons.
Let’s unpack all of that:
#1- It’s day one of the presidential election. Voters nationwide will cast their ballots for one of four presidential hopefuls: incumbent President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People Party’s Hazem Omar.
How to get blue ink on your finger: Find your nearest polling station by entering your national ID on the official website. You can also text your national ID number to 5151 or call the same number to find your nearest location and receive your voting number. Voting ends on Tuesday.
The vote abroad wrapped last week: Egyptian expatsin 121 countries around the world cast their ballots between 1-3 December. Votes are now being counted.
When’s the big announcement? We can expect to hear the results of the vote on 18 December. A runoff, if necessary, will take place in early January 2024.
BTW- Lights are staying on for the election period: The nation is getting a four-day holiday from the nationwide blackouts that have been a common feature of daily life since July. An Electricity Ministry source told Akhbar Al Yom that load reductions will be paused from Saturday through to Tuesday to ensure the lights remain on at polling stations.
#2- More inflation relief? New figures are expected to show that inflation continued to slow in November on the back of easing food costs and a favorable base effect, according to a poll of six analysts conducted by Reuters.
- Where we stand: Annual urban inflation eased to 35.8%y-o-y in October from September’s record high of 38.0% thanks to slowing food price increases. Core inflation also eased to 38.1% from 39.7%.
- Where we could be heading: The poll’s median projection has core inflation slowing to 37.2% in November from 38.1% in October.
- Caveat: Lower figures or not, businesses aren’t feeling optimistic about how sharply higher prices are going to impact the economy over the next year, according to PMI survey data out last week.
#3- COP ‘til you drop: We’re in the final three days of COP28 in Dubai. If you want to go deeper on everything happening over at COP28, Enterprise Climate has the low-down on this year’s conference.
One of the key sticking points: How to (or even whether to) phase out fossil fuels. Oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia are pushing back against an agreement that would commit countries to phase out the use of fossil fuels, writes Reuters. At least 80 countries are trying to seal a pact that would put an end date on the use of hydrocarbons but the Opec oil cartel is reportedly pressing its members to reject any mention of fossil fuels in the summit’s final agreement.
Sound smart: Under UN rules, the final agreement has to be unanimous..
#4- Trade run to KSA: The Engineering Export Council of Egypt yesterday kicked off a weeklong trade mission to Saudi Arabia, the largest importer for our engineering sector. The delegation is hoping to drum up orders and investments from the kingdom for pumps, car parts, boilers, and everything in between.
DATA POINT- Who’s using which exchange rate in their 2024 budget?EGX-listed Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals’ (Sidpec) board of directors penciled in the exchange rate at EGP 37 to the greenback in the company’s budget for next year, according to an EGXdisclosure (pdf) from the petrochemicals giant.
PSA- Gov’t launches new initiative to rescue Egyptians from Gaza: The Foreign Ministry has set up an online platform for Egyptians in Gaza (or their families outside the embattled strip) to register their information, which will then be delivered to the Rafah border authorities to facilitate their exit from the strip, it said in a statement last night.
HAPPENING THIS WEEK-
It’s a big week for global monetary policy: The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will hold their final policy meetings of the year this week — meetings that Bloomberg notes will take place against growing market pressure on central banks to pivot to rate cuts. None of the central banks are expected to move rates higher this week with inflation rapidly falling back towards target, and attention is instead turning to slowing economic growth ,
- The Fed (12-13 December): The market is currently pricing in the first rate cut for May, though economists surveyed last week see the central bank waiting until 3Q 2024. (Reuters | FT poll)
- The ECB (14 December): The central bank will begin lowering rates earlier than expected in 2Q 2024 in response to an expected shallow recession during the winter. (Reuters poll)
- The BOE (14 December): The Bank of England will likely leave rates at current highs until 3Q next year. (Reuters poll)
Remember: The Central Bank of Egypt will hold its final policy meeting of the year next Thursday, 21 December.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
No single story has gripped the imagination of the international press on this fine fall morning.
The big business story of the morning: TheEU puts up guardrails for AI: The European Union has agreed to regulate artificial intelligence by banning the use of biometric scanning that assesses people by political or religious beliefs, sexual orientation, or race, but live facial scanning in public spaces will be permitted with safeguards and exemptions, Bloomberg reports.
WAR WATCH- The big story in our corner of the world: Israel is warning it can “no longer accept” Hezbollah on its border, the Financial Times quotes Israel’s national security advisor as saying. The comment comes at the same time as the Houthis have said on X that they will target any ship heading to Israel.
AND- Vladimir Putin is running for a fifth term in office, having confirmed he will contest the March 2024 presidential election. (Reuters | Financial Times | Associated Press)
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
The Cairo Art Fair is now open at TAM Gallery at District 5: The exhibition will showcase more than 130 artists in the largest collection of contemporary Egyptian art to date with 1.5k artworks. The artworks will stay on display until Wednesday 24 January. Find out more by clicking here.
One for the 2027 calendars: Egypt will host the 2027 African Games after the Republic of the Congo withdrew and agreed to support Egypt’s bid, the Sports Ministry said yesterday. The country has received the final approval from the African Union to host the multi-sport event, which takes place every four years.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.
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