Analysts weigh in on what the CBE’s next move may be

Monday, 29 Jan 2024

Analysts weigh in on what the CBE’s next move may be

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Today at a glance

POLL

Analysts split on CBE’s next move.

Spotlight

Diving into the EGX’s 2024 strategy.

WAR WATCH

US tries to keep Egyptian-Israeli relations friendly.

Also on our Radar

EBRD extends USD 50 mn facility to Beko.

LEGISLATION WATCH

Better protection for our facilities and infrastructure.

What We're Tracking Today

Expat car import scheme extended.

PLANET FINANCE

US economy recovers from pandemic-era headwinds before others.

BLACKBOARD

Wycombe Abbey is coming to Egypt.

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt’s Afcon dream shatters following loss to Congo

Good morning, folks. We have a busy issue for you this morning, packed with a little bit of everything, so let’s jump into it.

ICYMI- EnterpriseAM KSA launched yesterday. Our newest addition to the Enterprise family is written for business leaders in Saudi Arabia as well as investors, and others doing business or deploying capital there. It’s published at 7am KSA, Sunday through Thursday.

Subscribe to receive your own copy or you can check out the website here.

Want news from the UAE as well?Subscribe here.

THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME-

The Pharaohs’ Afcon dream shattered: Egypt lost to DR Congo in a penalty shootout, ending its Afcon journey at the round 16 stage. The match ended in a 1-1 draw, before DR Congo emerged victorious 8-7 on penalties.

Attention, residency-less residents. Foreigner residents who are exempt from having a residence permit should head to the Interior Ministry’s Department of Passports, Immigration, and Nationality to get their registration card, the ministry said in a statement. The card will give the foreigners access to public services offered by the state. Foreigners have until June to get their cards.

PSA- The expat car-for-FX initiative is getting a three-month extension: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has signed off on a bill extending the expat car imports scheme for three months starting today. Interested expats now have until Monday, 29 April to sign up for the initiative.

Remember: The government kicked off the second iteration of the scheme — which was set to expire by the end of this month — in late October, with hopes of raising between USD 450 mn and USD 1 bn. The initiative allows expats to receive full rebates in EGP equivalent on customs fees, VAT, and other taxes within five years of purchasing a vehicle, provided they pay them upfront in FX.

INTERESTED? You can sign up for the initiative through the government’s app on Google Play and the App Store.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The House is in session: MPs are meeting today to vote on a EUR 56 mn grant from the French Development Agency to increase the country’s wheat storage capacity. They will also discuss Egypt’s subscription to the African Development Fund and making the change to the secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) when inking agreements with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, instead of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

In the committees:

The Health Committee will discuss the universal health ins. system;
The Budget Committee will discuss an agreement that would eliminate double taxation between Egypt and Croatia;
The Agriculture Committee will investigate the fertilizer shortage;
The Energy Committee will assess progress on the construction of the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant.

Intl’ Cooperation Minister in Italy: International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat is in Rome to participate in the Italy-Africa summit on behalf of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, according to a cabinet readout. Al Mashat is scheduled to give a speech later today, which will cover the need to help African countries curb illegal immigration to Europe and help them with their green transition. The summit kicked off yesterday and is wrapping up today.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold its first meeting of the year on Thursday to review rates. The meeting could swing either way — with the bank leaving rates unchanged or raising them — according to the analysts we spoke to for our customary poll.

^^ Check out the poll in the news well, below.

It’s also Fed week: The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting tomorrow Economists polled by Reuters see the Fed leaving rates at their current 22-year high at 5.25-5.5% when it meets later this week to ensure that “recent progress in inflation is sustainable.”

And World Economic Outlook week: The IMF will be out with its January 2024 World Economic Outlook update tomorrow.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

One story dominates on an otherwise slow morning in the global press: The White House says Iran-backed fighters killed three members of the US military and wounded 25 in a drone attack on an American outpost in Jordan.

Why it matters: They’re the first US casualties since tensions started ramping up following Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Pundits on both sides of the ocean are calling the attack a “significant escalation that is likely to draw the US further into conflict even as Washington seeks to avoid a broader regional conflagration.”

“We shall respond,” said US President Joe Biden.

Oil prices climbed overnight following news of the attack and an earlier incident in which Houthi rebels struck a Trafigura-chartered tanker in the Red Sea.

It’s leading front pages from the business press onward: Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | Politico | The Guardian.

From the business pages:

Banker bonuses are down: Wall Street’s Masters of the Universe thought their bonuses would be super-sized this year. They’re not. (Wall Street Journal)
Sales of climate-focused mutual funds crashed 75% in the past two years. Blame poor performance, competition from rising interest rates, and the backlash against all things “woke.” (Financial Times)
China is moving to curb short selling as the market downturn deepens. Beijing failed to deliver last week on an anticipated USD 100 bn stock bailout. (Bloomberg)

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at how dairy producers in Egypt are struggling to keep up with rising costs while protecting quality. You can check out the story in our PM edition here.

CORRECTION: In yesterday’s issue, we mistakenly reported that the Finance Ministry wanted to issue EGP-denominated bonds on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX), instead of denominated in the local currency of Hong Kong. The story has been updated on our website.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We sat down with the international director of Wycombe Abbey to discuss why the British private school has decided to set up a branch in the new capital.

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sports What We're Tracking Today

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POLL

Analysts split on the Central Bank of Egypt’s next move -poll

To hike, or not to hike: Analysts are split on what the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will do when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday. Four of the nine analysts we spoke to see the central bank leaving rates unchanged on the back of declining inflation and expectations that this trend will continue throughout the year. Two others see the bank moving forward with rate hikes ranging between 150-200 pbs, while the rest didn’t give us a straightforward answer.

The last three CBE meetings have been fairly uneventful: The central bank has held interest rates steady during its past three meetings in December, November, and September. The overnight deposit rate stands at 19.25%, while the overnight lending rate is 20.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates are at 19.75%. Rates have risen 1.1k bps since March 2022, with the bank last hiking rates in its August meeting.

Hiking rates now could cause more harm than good: An interest hike now for any of the world’s central banks could slow economic growth as economies navigate their way around a global rise in energy and food prices, and in Egypt’s case exacerbate ongoing pressures to do with unemployment and economic performance, banking expert Hany Aboul Fotouh (LinkedIn) told Enterprise.

And on top of that, interest hikes as a monetary policy tool may currently not be that effective — for now, at least: “Our circumstances and problems in Egypt are different from the circumstances and problems of other countries that fight inflation by raising interest and focusing on policy,” banking expert and EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal told us. Before being able to use raising interest rates as a fiscal tool to rein in inflation, we must “first strive to achieve exchange rate stability,” Abdel Aal said. However, he added that, unlike his previous assessment back in October, inflation “has begun to interact — albeit marginally — with interest rate changes.”

Inflation has been on a downward trajectory, but some don’t think this will last: Annual urban inflation eased for the third consecutive month in December to 33.7% — its lowest level in seven months. HC Securities’ Heba Mounir told Enterprise that they expect annual headline inflation to jump back up to 36.3% in January on the back of pricier telecoms services, Metro tickets, and household electricity bills combined with an increase of money supply from recently maturing high-yield certificates of deposits.

In defense of a rate hike: "The latest IMF's comments on the loan program review and ongoing discussions signal a shift in priorities toward inflation targeting, suggesting a probable monetary tightening in the coming months. That said, we expect a 150-200 bps hike in the upcoming meeting", Ahmed Hafez, Head of Research at Beltone Holding, told Enterprise. Economist Mona Bedeir also sees the bank moving forward with a 200 bps rate hike when it meets “because monetary tightening has become an urgent necessity at the current stage.”

A devaluation could change things:Mounir told us that they “don’t rule out a policy rate hike” in the event of a devaluation, which they see happening following the conclusion of the IMF’s first and second reviews of our USD 3 bn loan agreement, alongside the “doubling, if not more” the value of the support package. Mirroring this viewpoint, Aboul Fotouh added that a devaluation could force the central bank to raise rates “to attract more foreign investment and prevent dollarization.”

A rate hike should be paired with a devaluation regardless the timing, a number of analysts suggest. "The central bank could raise rates by as much as 500 bps accompanied by a devaluation," Zilla Capital’s Head of Research Aya Zoheir said without specifying when this might happen. Meanwhile, economist Ali Metwally penciled in a 300 bps rate hike, paired with a devaluation that will see the EGP trading at 40 against greenback or 55 “if we’re being pessimistic.” Metwally also stopped short of specifying when this might happen.

And one is left undecided: EFG Hermes lead MENA economist Mohamed Abu Basha sees the CBE swinging either way — leaving rates unchanged or moving forward with a 200-300 bps rate hike.

All eyes on the IMF: A large number of the analysts surveyed said that the pending updates on the future of our IMF package will play a big role in the CBE’s next move. “The bank’s decision will depend on the stage of negotiations with the IMF,” Abu Basha said. Representatives from the IMF were in town last week to discuss the two long-awaited stalled reviews of the loan program and an IMF spokesperson said promised updates when the visit wraps up, which should be any day now.

Tags:

Central Bank of Egypt economy interest rates

WAR WATCH

Egypt stands in opposition of Israel’s proposal to send troops to Rafah

Israel notifies Egypt of plans to send troops to Gaza’s Rafah: Israel has reportedly informed Egypt that it intends to send troops to Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor, saying that they will only operate in the area temporarily, Sky News Arabia reported on Saturday. Egypt stood in firm opposition to the decision. The two sides are currently talking over the matter, with the Israeli side stressing that it will not displace Palestinians intoEgypt.

Egypt isn’t happy and Washington intervenes: The US has reportedly urged Egypt to refrain from calling back its ambassador from Israel — a move triggered by repeated Israeli calls to displace Palestinian refugees in Sinai, Israeli platform i24 News reports, citing unnamed senior diplomatic sources.

Speaking of Egypt and Washington- Our head of intel was with the CIA head yesterday. Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel joined Qatari Prime Minister Mohamed Bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, CIA head William Burns, Israel’s Mossad head David Barnea, and the head of Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet Ronen Bar in Paris yesterday, according to a statement from the Israeli Prime Minister Office. Although the statement provides little to no details on what the discussions covered, it mentions that the “meeting was defined as constructive,” but “there are still significant gaps which the sides will continue to discuss at additional mutual meetings to be held this week.”

We have an idea about what they may have talked about: Earlier this week, the New York Times reported that Hamas and Israel are on the verge of reaching an agreement which would see Israel halt all fighting in Gaza for about two months in exchange for Hamas releasing over 100 Israeli hostages.

What’s next? If all goes according to plan, the Biden administration will send Middle East Advisor Brett McGurk to the region to help finalize the agreement.

Shoukry + Saudi FM renew calls for ceasefire: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan reiterated calls for a ceasefire during a joint presser (pdf) yesterday.

AND- UN wants the world to continue supporting UNRWA: UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on governments to continue supporting the UN refugee agency for Palestinians (UNRWA). His plea came after the US and other countries suspended their funding to the agency following Israeli allegations that some of the agency’s staff members took part in the 7 October attacks on Israel.

RED SEA WATCH-

Shipping firms want incentives from the SCA: Suez Canal Authority (SCA) head Osama Rabie met with representatives from several shipping firms yesterday to discuss the repercussions of the repeated attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea, according to a statement.

The bottomline: Firms love the Suez Canal but fee reductions and incentives will help offset the high ins. premiums and shipping costs triggered by the attacks in the waterway.

The canal has been hit hard by the Red Sea disruptions that pushed many vessels away from the waterway and had them instead reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Suez Canal receipts have fallen 44% y-o-y to USD 802 mn this month.

AND- Aramex leverages trucking to avoid Red Sea hold ups:Aramex Freight Services will be loading shipments from Europe onto its fleet of trucks at Port Said instead of rerouting vessels away from the Red Sea via the longer and pricier Cape of Good Hope in light of current Red Sea disruptions, it said in a statement. The firm will be loading shipments from Asia into its trucks in Dubai and KSA’s Dammam.

Tags:

DIPLOMACY Israel Israel-Palestine conflict Middle East politics Palestine Red Sea RED SEA WATCH Suez Canal war watch

LEGISLATION WATCH

Egyptian MPs approve a bill boosting military role in protecting critical facilities and infrastructure

House passes bill protecting critical facilities, infrastructure: The House of Representatives gave final approval on Sunday to a draft law that cements the role of the armed forces in protecting critical facilities and infrastructure — power grids, gas pipelines, oil fields, railways, roads and bridges.

Safeguarding our facilities: The draft law — which replaces the 2013 and 2014 laws on the protection of public facilities — gives army officials the greenlight to take the necessary measures to protect those facilities and confront those who threaten to disrupt the facilities’ activities and disrupt the flow of basic commodities.

Military officials authorized by the defense minister will have the ability to exercise the law. Offenders will be referred to military courts.

ALSO APPROVED BY THE HOUSE- Amendment regulating military courts also got the final nod from MPs. The amendments grant individuals convicted by military courts the right to an additional appellate trial.

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Armed Forces House of Representatives Legislation Watch

A MESSAGE FROM HSBC

Principles for global trade to support a sustainable future

In an era where environmental and socio-economic sustainability are increasingly crucial, a ground-breaking initiative is shaping the future of international trade. Spearheaded by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the ICC Principles for Sustainable Trade: Wave Two is a pivotal step towards aligning global commerce with the pressing needs of our planet. This ambitious project is a testament to the evolving landscape of trade and finance.

Dual focus: The ICC's methodology is revolutionary in its dual focus. It evaluates not only the environmental sustainability of transactions, but also their contribution to socio-economically sustainable development. This dual approach is pivotal in achieving the Paris Agreement's ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and in realizing the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

HSBC, in collaboration with five other banks, the Boston Consulting Group and the ICC, has played an instrumental role in developing these principles. Their collective efforts culminated in the first iteration of Wave One, which was introduced at COP27 in Egypt. This initial phase laid the groundwork for establishing the sustainability credentials of all parties involved in trade transactions, focusing on the textile and apparel sectors.

Wave Two of the ICC's initiative expands its reach significantly. It extends beyond textiles to encompass vital sectors like energy, automotive, and agriculture. Moreover, it introduces an innovative dimension by evaluating the sustainability of transportation methods in trade, thereby enhancing the robustness and comprehensiveness of the analysis. A unique grading system now assigns a score to transactions, providing a quantifiable measure of their sustainability.

Sector-specific standards: The insights from Wave One were illuminating, particularly in underscoring the need for sector-specific standards. The textile industry, for example, highlighted the necessity of verifiable sustainable sourcing. This principle is likely applicable across various sectors, each requiring its unique set of sustainability data.

Acknowledging the diversity of industries, ICC's Wave Two aims to establish a sector-specific sustainability standards database. This effort ensures that sustainability measures are not only universal in their intent, but also tailored to the unique characteristics of each industry.

A crucial aspect of these new standards is the integration of the external validation of sustainability claims and the automation of this data within company operations. Identifying appropriate external accreditation and embedding this information into technological systems is vital for navigating the increasingly digital landscape of trade finance.

Sustainability and social standards are not novel in finance, they exist in various forms, such as the Equator Principles for project finance and the Green Bond Principles for capital markets. However, their application in the complex and voluminous world of global trade finance is a bold and ambitious move. The impact could be substantial, given trade's pivotal role in the global economy and its significant contribution to global emissions.

Trade finance transcends mere financial provision. It encompasses contingent solutions like guarantees and letters of credit, now recognized under the Green Loan Principles managed by various global financial associations. This inclusion broadens the potential impact of sustainable trade standards.

This initiative marks a first in the industry — developing principles specifically for sustainable trade. HSBC's active involvement in shaping these standards is a clear indication of the financial sector's commitment to a sustainable future. As these principles take root, they promise to reshape the landscape of international trade, steering it towards a more sustainable and equitable horizon.

Deyana Cherneva is Head of Global Trade and Receivables Banking for HSBC in the Middle East North Africa and Türkiye region.

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A MESSAGE FROM HSBC HSBC logistics trade

Spotlight

The Egyptian Stock Exchange eyes more IPOs, more liquidity, and more markets in its 2024 strategy

The bourse has big plans for 2024:The Egyptian Stock Exchange is out with its development strategy (pdf) for the current year, laying out a laundry list of changes and reforms to overhaul trading, add more companies, and increase liquidity. The EGX had an uneventful IPO market last year, with only TAQA Arabia going public, as more companies put their listing off on the back of economic headwinds. The blue-chip EGX30 index gained around 66% last year, most of the gains can be attributed to investors piling into the stock market to hedge against the devaluation of the EGP.

IPO INCENTIVES-

Fresh IPO incentives: The exchange plans to hold discussions with the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) and the Finance Ministry to grant tax incentives for a limited period to companies that offer at least 20% of their shares on the EGX in an IPO — with a specific focus on companies that export their products or locally manufacture products that are otherwise imported. The bourse also wants to encourage shareholders of listed companies to offer up additional shares on the market.

A better organized privatization program: The bourse plans on categorizing state-owned companies slated for an IPO into clear segments based on either their activities or target investors. The move aims to give a promotional edge to these companies when they are offered up to potential investors.

CAPITAL + INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT-

SMEs will have a limited stay at Tamayuz: The exchange wants to place a cap on SMEs' stay on the Tamayuz index and oblige them to submit a plan mapping out how they are going to raise their capital within 3-5 years to the EGP 100 mn required to be eligible to switch to the main market. In addition, SMEs will have to meet a minimum capital requirement of EGP 25 mn to be listed on Tamayuz in the first place.

Facilitating capital increases for listed companies: The bourse wants to streamline the process of increasing capital for listed companies and trim the capital subscription period to ten days.

More investment from state institutions? The bourse wants to increase the minimum investment that special funds and institutions like Egypt Post, the Endowments Ministry, the Investor Protection Fund, and Social Security and Pensions Authority are required to invest in securities. The exchange wants to tip the balance in favor of stocks, and not just fixed-income securities.

MOC ORDERS-

MOC orders coming our way? The exchange plans to introduce market-on-close (MOC) orders in a bid to catch up with global trading practices. MOC orders allow traders to have their orders executed at the closing price.

NEW MARKETS-

EGX wants to attract new investor segments: A sharia-compliant index and exchange-traded funds, a voluntary carbon market, a real estate exchange, and a derivatives market are all in the works. The strategy doesn’t give us the launch dates for any of the indices.

MORE DIGITALIZATION-

The EGX plans to double down on digital transformation as it eyes to launch e-KYC (know your customer) protocols and digital onboarding. It also wants to finalize an agreement with an international tech solutions provider that will launch the EGX’s new e-disclosure system that uses the eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL).

Tags:

EGX Fintech Islamic finance SPOTLIGHT

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

More experts weigh in on what the Central Bank of Egypt will do next

The economy continued to drive the conversation on the airwaves last night. Between the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting taking place on Thursday and soaring commodity prices, it was a busy night for the nation’s talking heads.

Another vote in favor of the CBE keeping rates unchanged: The central bank will likely hold rates when it meets on Thursday, economist Mohamed Fouad told El Hekaya’s Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 12:37). Despite his forecast, Fouad believes the bank should hike rates between 300-500 bps when it meets to tame inflation. He also touched on the exchange rate instability, arguing that it is unlikely for the state to opt for another currency devaluation in the near future, seeing as it has taken other measures to limit USD spending and shore up its FX reserves.

^^ Analysts we spoke to for our customary poll are split on what the central bank will do on Thursday. Read the full story in the news well, above.

Pricey meat: Meat prices have risen 20% since the beginning of the year, reaching EGP 400 per kg, with further hikes expected. “This price remains unsatisfactory to butchers,” head of the butchers division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce Haitham Abdelbasit told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 6:44). He pointed to a drop in the livestock count in the local market and exchange rate instability for the current surge in prices, seeing as farmers have to import their feed from abroad.

The solution: Abdelbasit believes that the government should set an income margin for farmers and livestock importers to control the final prices.

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Central Bank of Egypt foreign exchange LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

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EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Foreign press dives into Egypt’s economic woes

A quiet morning for Egypt in the foreign press:The one story noting this morning came from The National diving into Egypt’s economic woes, from FX shortages to inflationary pressures and commodity hoarding and price gouging.

Tags:

economy

Also on our Radar

Beko’s Egypt appliance factory is getting EBRD funding

DEBT WATCH-

Beko’s 10th of Ramadan plant is getting EBRD funding: Turkish home appliances retailer Beko is in line for a senior loan of up to USD 50 mn from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to finance its USD 100 mn home appliance factory in the 10th of Ramadan industrial zone, the lender said on its website. While it remains unclear who will fund the remaining USD 50 mn, the EBRD says Beko is in line for financing facilities from local and international lenders.

About the plan: Beko’s home appliances factory is expected to produce 1.1 mn appliances a year — 600k refrigerators and 500k ovens — 60% of which will be exported to MEA and European markets. Beko broke ground on the plant in December 2022 and the EBRD expects it to go online during the first half of the year. The EBRD facility will be used to finance the facility’s constructions and the establishment of a R&D center.

REGULATION-

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) is giving ins. firms 90 days to abide by recent regulatory amendments prohibiting ins. brokerage firms’ agents from collecting premiums or any other fees from policyholders in cash or through transfers to their personal bank accounts, the authority said in a statement (pdf). Ins. agents are required to collect payments through their corresponding firms’s POS or in cash, but only in a number of specified cases.

MINING-

Centamin has big plans for Egypt this year: LSE- and TSX-listed gold miner Centamin wants to increase its gold production from its Egyptian mines to 470-500k ounces, up from 450k ounces last year, Country Manager Amr Hassouna told Al Arabiya. Centamin Egypt’s revenues rose 10% y-o-y during 2023 to USD 892 mn. While its earnings report isn’t out yet, Hassouna believes that the Madbouly government will be getting over USD 130 mn for its 50% share in the Sukari mine.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR Beko Centamin EBRD Financial Regulatory Authority

PLANET FINANCE

US economy beats Europe, Asia to recovery from Covid-era headwinds

Soft landing? The US economy has outpaced its European and Asian counterparts to represent the world’s best economic recovery from pandemic-era headwinds as the country averts recession and moves into a soft landing, the Washington Post reports. Fresh inflation data showed that the US hit its 2% target over the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, the country saw 3.1% growth over the past year.

What the US did right: The US government made hefty payouts in the wake of the pandemic, increasing spending in the form of loans to small businesses and unemployment benefits more than its European and Asian counterparts. The government allocated 25.5% of its GDP to soften the blow of the pandemic, compared to 15.3% in Germany and 9.6% in France.

Fiscal policy is key: The government’s fiscal policy could play a bigger role in shaping the outcome of future economic downturns, more so than the Fed’s monetary policy, said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserves economist.

EGX30	28,626	+3.5% (YTD: +15.0%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.83	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	19.25% deposit	20.25% lending
Tadawul	12,264	+0.8% (YTD: +2.5%)
ADX	9,568	-0.6% (YTD: -0.1%)
DFM	4,163	-0.2% (YTD: +2.6%)
S&P 500	4,891	-0.1% (YTD: +2.5%)
FTSE 100	7,635	+1.4% (YTD: -1.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,635	+1.2% (YTD: +2.5%)
Brent crude	USD 83.55	+1.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.71	+5.5%
Gold	USD 2,036	0.0%
BTC	USD 41,889	-0.6% (YTD: -1.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 3.5% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 6.2 bn (92% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net buyers. The index is up 15% YTD.

In the green: Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+17%), Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals Company (+16.9%), and Oriental Weavers (+15.7%).

In the red: GB Corp (-3.5%), ADIB Egypt (-2.4%), and Edita (-1.4%).

Major Asian benchmarks are largely in the green in early trading this morning. Futures suggest that stocks on Wall Street will dip at the opening bell later today, while major European benchmarks could open the day in the green.

Tags:

Planet Finance US US Federal Reserve

Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard

BLACKBOARD

British private school Wycombe Abbey is setting up shop in Egypt’s new administrative capital

Wycombe Abbey is coming to Egypt: British private school Wycombe Abbey is establishing a branch in the diplomatic district of Egypt’s new administrative capital as part of wider plans to expand into the MENA region, marking the school’s fifth foray overseas and first overseas expansion outside East Asia.

We caught up with the international director of Wycombe Abbey, Jason Gregory(LinkedIn), to discuss why they decided to set up shop in the new capital, the process of setting up an international school in Egypt, and what other plans they have for the country and wider region. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

We want to expand our global family of schools in the Middle East region, and so we’re really excited to start that journey by establishing a school in Egypt. Egyptian society truly values education and we can see that there is a demand for high-quality education.

We were impressed by the scale and ambition of the development of the new capital. We saw that there is a need for a high-quality international school to serve the growing residential community, as well as business and administrative communities.

We will be looking for other locations in Egypt once we have gotten the first school up and running. Potential locations could be in and around Cairo, but also other cities like Alexandria.

Wycombe Abbey has developed an excellent reputation for world-class education since the school was established over a century ago in 1896. It is regarded as a leading independent school in the UK and we were twice named independent school of the year by a number of organizations. We want to ensure that we apply those quality standards to our first school in the Middle East.

The quality of the teachers is the most important aspect to help us deliver quality education. From a recent recruitment campaign, we have received great demand and interest from teachers, both within Egypt and globally. I think this is down to the reputation of Wycombe Abbey, the chance to be part of a global family of schools where staff members benefit from that best practice and that professional development, and the excitement around being part of the development of this new capital.

It has been a great benefit to work with our local partner WMC Education Foundation and the Administrative Capital for Urban Development to design the school from scratch according to the needs of the pupils.

We have also been working closely with the Egyptian Education Ministry to ensure that we can secure the school’s license and that we meet the regulatory requirements for the school.

Wycombe Abbey schools are accredited by the Council of British International Schools, and the new capital branch will be no different. We will be applying for that same accreditation for the new capital branch soon.

As for tuition fees? We’re still finalizing whether tuition fees may differ based on the exchange rate.

We see ourselves as a values-based institution. Trust, encouragement, mutual respect, excellence, innovation, dynamism, service, and balance — we ensure that these values are integrated in everything we do. This includes the curriculum, the way we deliver our teaching and learning, and how we engage with our pupils, the staff, and the parents in the community.

Whilst Wycombe is based on academic excellence, it's not just about the exam results.It's also about broader curricular activities and excellent pastoral care to ensure that we can develop our pupils into rounded individuals and prepare them to become future leaders. It’s this holistic approach to education that sets us apart.

Your top education story for the week- Higher education revamp: Efforts to improve higher education in Egypt were reviewed during a meeting between President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, and Higher Education Minister Ayman Ashour. (Ittihadiya statement)

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Blackboard Education new administrative capital

CALENDAR

2024

JANUARY

30 January (Tuesday): The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report due to be published.

FEBRUARY

1 February (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

1 February (Thursday): OPEC+ oil market monitoring online meeting.

4 February (Sunday): The Senate meeting.

8 February (Thursday): Deadline to apply to Shalateen Mining Company’s international gold exploration tender.

11 February (Sunday): Deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Programin El Gouna.

15-16 February (Thursday-Friday): Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lulada Silva meets with President El Sisi in Cairo.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline to bid for 23 blocks in an international oil and gas tender.

MARCH

20 March (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

28 March (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 March (Friday): Egypt removed from JPMorgan Chase’s Emerging Local Markets Index Plus.

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC) (national holiday).

15-21 April (Monday-Sunday): The IMF / World Bank Spring Meetings.

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC) (national holiday).

28 April (Sunday): Grace period to ins. brokerage firms to comply with Law 215 for 2023 expires.

28-29 April (Sunday-Monday): Saudi Arabia hosts a World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting on ‘global collaboration, growth, and energy.’

29 April (Monday): The government’s car export scheme expires.

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC) (national holiday).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (national holiday).

23 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 May (Wednesday): Virtual launch of Chicago Booth Executive Program.

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday - Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

NOVEMBER

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

January 2024: The Red Sea Ports Authority is set to finalize an agreement with the Abu Dhabi Ports Group for the operation and maintenance of the tourist passenger terminal in the Sharm El Sheikh Sea Port.

February 2024: Egypt will sign a USD 1.5 bn financing agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC).

February 2024: Funds from the Islamic Development Bank for the high speed electric railway will get the sign off.

1Q 2024: Egyptian-Qatari Joint Supreme Committee.

1Q 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

1H 2024: The European Union is set to hold an investment conference in Egypt during spring.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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