Get EnterpriseAM daily

Available in your choice of English or Arabic

Analysts are divided over whether the MPC will cut rates this week

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The IMF remains committed to Egypt’s loan program -Georgieva

Good morning, all. We have a busy issue for you this morning — we spoke to analysts and economists to get a better feel of which way the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee may lean when it meets later this week and we have the details of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s meeting with Jordan’s Crown Prince.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The IMF remains committed to Egypt’s loan program: “We look at the macro position of a country and we concentrate on the economy. There are matters of politics that are not in our domain,” IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva told Asharq Business, confirming that the Fund will continue to support the Egyptian economy as it carries out reforms, adding that this support “is and will remain a priority.” Her comments came in response to a question if the Fund will remain committed to its plans regardless of any American pressures.

ICYMI- US President Donald Trump recently threatened to cut aid to Egypt and Jordan if they refuse to take in refugees from Gaza. He has since taken back that threat saying that “we’re above that.”

We’re waiting on our fourth tranche from the IMF: The IMF is set to sign off on Egypt’s fourth review and discuss new funds under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility in the coming weeks. “It is all a matter of schedule,” Georgieva said.


#2- Local manufacturing leader Elsewedy Electric is eyeing an entrance into Brazil and India as part of its expansion plan, Chairman Ahmed Elsewedy told Al Arabiya. The company wants to establish specialized factories for wires, cables, electrical products, and smart infrastructure in both countries this year.


#3- The Arab Organization for Industrialization is in talks with Emirati investors to set up three new factories in Egypt, AOI head Mokhtar Abdel Latif told Wam. The planned facilities will specialize in car tires, MDF wood from palm tree fronds, and advanced defense manufacturing.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Egypt Energy Show kicks off today, with the Egypt International Exhibition Center set to host private and public energy players from across the globe. The three-day event, which comes under the theme of Building a Secure and Sustainable Energy Future, will welcome 47k visitors, feature over 300 speakers, and host more than 500 participating companies.

It’s already shaping up to be an eventful few days with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides is set to sign “the first agreements for the commercialization of natural gas from deposits in the Republic of Cyprus” at some point today. The agreement will see gas from the country’s Cronos and Aphrodite fields coming our way to be liquified and re-exported as LNG.


#2- It’s the last day of the Businesswomen of Egypt 21 Association annual conference, where delegations from across the world have come together in the past four days across venues in the cities of Cairo, Luxor, and Aswan to discuss issues related to enhancing women’s role in the global economy. This year’s event is being held under the theme of Megatrends Shaping Women’s Economic Potential.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

The Hydrogen and Ammonia Mediterranean Summit is about to kick off, with the two-day event launching tomorrow. Regional and global figures in the increasingly important subset of renewable energy will take part in discussions and showcase recent technological developments in the emerging field.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another cold day in Cairo, with a high of 23°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s as cold in Alexandria, with a high of 22°C and a low of 11°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? Once a month, Inside Industry looks at a manufacturer — whether locally bred or an international player with a manufacturing base here in Egypt. This month, we spoke with Sherif Khalil, general manager at Henkel Egypt.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday to review interest rates. The CBE left rates unchanged when it last met in December — marking the sixth consecutive meeting to keep rates steady — but most analysts see the central bank starting to cut rates sometime this quarter.

What to expect? Analysts are divided on which way the MPC could lean when it meets, according to our customary interest rate poll, which you can check out in the news well, below.

#2- Exploring business potential between Egypt and Switzerland: The Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle and Kickstart Innovation are hosting a series of online events on 20 February under the theme Innovate Together: Business Opportunities Between Egypt and Switzerland. The events aim to strengthen business ties between the two nations, bringing together startups, investors, and public and private players.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s an unusually calm morning on the international scene, while regional and international leaders anticipate the ramifications of the new US administration’s approach to Gaza, Ukraine and the international economy.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio started his Middle East tour in Israel, where he stood next to Prime Minister Netanyahu to affirm their shared goals of “eradicating” Hamas and preventing the emergence of a nuclear Iran. Netanyahu called US President Trump’s forcible displacement plan “the only viable plan to enable a different future.” Rubio will head next to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. (AP | CNN)

MEANWHILE- Top EU leaders are gathering in Paris today to discuss a unified response to the US’ unilateral rapprochement with Russia, and the future of European defense. It remains unclear whether EU or Ukrainian representatives will be a viable part of the anticipated US-Russia negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. (FT | AP | BBC)

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at the future of digital education in Egypt — including several exciting new government initiatives.

Somabay Welcomes World Aquatics Open Water World Cup for the Third Year

Somabay proudly hosts the World Aquatics Open Water World Cup for the third consecutive year, reinforcing its status as a top watersports destination. The training camp will run from 18-22 February at Somabay’s state-of-the-art OneFlow Aquatics Centre, preparing athletes from 21 countries for the competition. From 21-22 February, they will compete in three races, further cementing Somabay’s appeal for international swimming events.

2

POLL

To cut or not to cut: Analysts weigh in on the MPC’s next move

Analysts are divided over whether the MPC will cut rates this week. Some are predicting that the Central Bank of Egypt will cut interest rates by 100-200 basis points (bps) when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, with analysts pointing to a strong positive base effect and slowing inflation as factors that could influence the decision. Others believe that the recent inflation data will prompt the bank to wait until the next time the MPC meets in April. Four of the analysts and economists we surveyed see the MPC cutting rates this month, two others said they were 50/50 on the decision, while three more suggested that the committee would hold rates.

Where rates currently stand: The overnight deposit rate stands at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 27.75%. Rates have remained unchanged since the committee delivered a 600 bps rate hike following a surprise monetary policy meeting last March, which was soon followed by the float of the EGP and the approval of a larger loan package from the IMF.

The central bank hasn’t made any changes to interest rates since its March rate hike — leaving them untouched when it met in May, July, September, October, November, and most recently in December.

Inflation continued its downward trajectory in January, albeit at a slower pace: Annual headline urban inflation dipped for a third consecutive month in January, recording 24.0%, down from 24.1% in December, holding steady as the nation’s lowest inflation reading since December 2022. Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed attributed the stagnancy in the first reading in 2025 partly to higher medical care costs, as well as an uptick in some food items, mainly meat and poultry, which she said “might be linked to seasonal factors.” She added that “some of the pass-through effect of the relatively higher USD since early November might have been finding its way to various prices.”

There’s a lack of agreement on how the inflation figures will factor into the MPC’s decision: Analysts were split over whether the recent figures would be enough to prompt a rate cut from the MPC, as other factors that include continued geopolitical tension and a tightened external position could cause the committee to hold off on cutting rates. “The bank may determine that current inflation rates still necessitate maintaining high interest rates.

It is worth noting that the rapid growth in Egypt’s money supply has contributed to rising inflation, reaching a record high growth rate of 31% in December 2024,” economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us.

The base effect could create the necessary space for the CBE to begin its easing cycle: While heightened seasonal spending due to the month of Ramadan and education expenses are expected to maintain inflationary pressures in February, “there is a strong positive base effect expected to step in, providing a relatively ample range of positive real interest rate allowing the CBE to start easing,” Ahmed told us. “The CBE might go for cutting rates by 100 – 150 bps in the upcoming meeting,” she added. Meanwhile, economist Mona Bedair sees room for a rate cut by around 100-200 bps, but says it’s more likely for the bank to cut rates 100 bps due to “the slower-than-expected drop in the inflation reading.”

Expectations for this month’s inflation reading could influence the CBE’s decision: February’s inflation reading — which some expect will see a sharp drop on the back of a strong base effect — could prompt the CBE to cut rates this month, National Bank of Kuwait Economic Research’s Noaman Khalid told us, penciling in a prediction of a 200-300 bps rate cut on Thursday.

But there are other factors at play than just inflationary pressures: “Given the tightened external position and the turbulent geopolitical tension and its effect of a potentially delayed recovery of the Suez Canal revenues and the US declaration of potentially displacing Gaza’s residents in several countries, including Egypt, we expect the MPC to leave interest rates unchanged,” HC Securities’ Heba Mounir said. These factors could threaten Egypt’s FX inflows, she said, “considering its external debt dues and energy import bills, creating a need to maintain the attractiveness of the carry trade.”

The stabilization of the EGP’s exchange rate and improvements in balance of payments indicators could be seen as an opportunity for the CBE to lower interest rates without negatively affecting currency stability, Abou El Fotouh said.

Some don’t see the MPC cutting rates until 2Q: Capital Economics is penciling in April for the first rate cut of the year as the most likely scenario, but “isn’t ruling out” a rate cut taking place on Thursday, Capital Economics’ James Swanston previously said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.

Upcoming wage hikes, subsidy cuts could have a minimal impact on inflationary pressures: “Fuel and electricity price hikes had weighed heavily on households and industries when they coincided with sharp currency devaluations, but before the FX crisis and the EGP devaluations in 2022 and 2023, they had limited impact on inflation,” Khalid explained. However, EGBank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal suggested that the impact of the upcoming social support package, anticipated wage increases, and the rise in the prices of certain goods could still contribute to inflation. On that note, Abdel Aal said he could see the MPC going either way on Thursday, but added that he hopes to see an interest rate cut of 200-300 bps either in the upcoming meeting or in the next one in April.

A rise in real interest rates will curb investments as borrowing costs remain high: The real interest rate will rise from 4% in December 2024 to over 16% in February 2025 if nominal rates remain unchanged — meaning that the rise in real interest rate from February onwards will “act as a brake on the recovery in investment,” BNP Paribas said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Despite this, uncertainties over Egypt’s inflation outlook will likely prompt the CBE to remain cautious, causing a more gradual decline in rates across 2025, the bank said.

In the long-term: Beyond their predictions for the CBE’s first rate cut of the year, analysts are divided over just how far the impending easing cycle will go, with uncertainty over the factors affecting Egypt’s economy creating a mixed outlook over how the MPC decides to act. Bedair told us she sees an “8-10% reduction in rates throughout the year, assuming that there are no unexpected circumstances affecting the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation,” while Zilla Capital’s Aya Zoheir sees the CBE cutting rates by 6-8% throughout the year. Meanwhile, Capital Economics sees “a total of 1.6k bps of reductions this year, taking the overnight deposit rate to 11.25%, which is much lower than the consensus forecast of 15.0%,” Swanston said.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

3

TAX

Freshly approved tax facilities set to come into effect in March

Fresh tax facilities will come into effect next month: A number of tax facilities that have to do with SMEs, simplifying tax procedures, and settling disputes will take effect in March, the Finance Ministry said yesterday.

They were signed into law last week: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi last Thursday ratified three new laws that will expand the scope of tax exemptions for small and medium enterprises, simplify tax procedures, and help settle disputes, according to decisions published in the Official Gazette.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

It didn’t take long to get here: We first heard about the three new laws in October when Kouchouk announced a long list of tax facilities as the first phase of a package of tax facilities aimed at simplifying the tax system and easing the burden on taxpayers. The House then passed the three tax-focused draft laws in late January.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FACILITIES IN THE NEW LAWS-

#1- Outstanding tax disputes related to real estate and unlisted securities could soon be resolved with full penalty waivers if they pay their dues within a set timeframe. The tax burden may be completely waived if five years have passed since the transaction.

#2- A cap on late payment fees: One of the laws puts a cap on late payment penalties so that the penalty does not exceed the original amount of tax due. The government will also scrap any late fees due to audit delays or drawn-out disputes. The law amendments also introduce a 12.5% compensation rate for uncollected or withheld amounts.

#3- Efforts to integrate the informal economy: One law aims to integrate the informal economy into the formal economy by granting them a fresh start, with tax obligations only counting from the registration date. Under the law, businesses will have three months to get registered.

#4- A grace period: Taxpayers who failed to submit their tax reports between the 2020 and 2024 tax seasons will be allowed to file them within a specific time frame without facing any penalties. The law also entails leniency for erroneous returns filed during that same period, which can be corrected and refiled without penalty.

#5- Big relief for SMEs: Among the laws ratified by El Sisi is one that reduces income tax rates to 0.4-1.5% of annual revenues for businesses with an annual turnover not exceeding EGP 20 mn. SMEs will also be exempted from development fees, stamp tax, and company registration fees, among others.

We’re just scratching the surface: For the full breakdown of what the new SME tax system entails, check out our coverage of the news back in January here.

A move in the right direction, but still more to do: Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said that the move represents “a fresh start for all taxpayers, in line with our dedication to strengthening the principles of partnership, trust, and certainty with the business community.” Three government officials told EnterpriseAM that the Finance Ministry is finalizing the amendments to the executive regulations and additional tax authority directives to ensure the smooth implementation of the new rules. The officials also noted that while the government aims to avoid major legislative amendments, some issues will be addressed through executive orders from the finance minister and ETA head.

More reforms are on the way: A centralized e-clearance system is set to launch by 2Q 2025, with pilot operations already underway at 50 major companies, sources explained to EnterpriseAM.

ALSO IN THE PIPELINE: The Finance Ministry will double the tax registration threshold for foreign firms linked to local entities to EGP 30 mn, aiming to ease compliance burdens on multinationals and their local branches. Under this proposed amendment to the Income Tax Law, foreign companies will be required to submit global branch reports, outlining financial activities in each country where they operate.

Some of the changes are already in motion: Last week, the Finance Ministry issued a directive allowing some big taxpayers to transition to sample-based audits instead of comprehensive audits. This move is expected to ease the burden on businesses by reducing the number of companies subject to full audits. Only 20% of taxpayers will be selected for annual reviews, based on risk assessment indicators such as tax evasion history, reported losses, and discrepancies in tax filings, informed sources told EnterpriseAM.

Sector-specific taxation guidelines are returning: The ETA plans to reinstate sector-based tax guidelines to standardize tax assessments across industries and eliminate inconsistent tax estimates across different regions. The new framework will apply to 710 commercial and industrial activities, covering transportation, tourism, petroleum, construction, and animal and fish production. The guidelines will be introduced gradually.

Even with the exceptions, the gov’t is hoping that it can increase tax revenues: The Finance Ministry is hoping to raise tax revenues to 15-16% of GDP within the next five years, up from 11.8% currently, Deputy Finance Minister for Tax Policies Sherif El Kilani said at a PwC Middle East conference on Thursday attended by EnterpriseAM.

4

Energy

Gov’t set to pay USD 1 bn in arrears to foreign energy firms next month

The government will pay out USD 1 bn of arrears owed to foreign energy companies early next month, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM. This will be followed up by the government settling all dues owed to foreign energy companies operating out of Egypt by the end of the year, we were told. As a show of the government’s commitment to settling its dues to energy companies operating in Egypt, this payment is expected to encourage energy players to ramp up investments in exploration and production, particularly in the West Mediterranean and the West Delta, the source added.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

This follows the Madbouly government’s USD 1 bn disbursement in early January, building on a similar payout made last November, according to previous reports. The government has since agreed on a repayment schedule with international oil companies, with payments rolling out through June 2025.

Energy security remains a top priority, with the government moving to plug its natural gas supply gap of around 2 bn cubic feet per day by locking in long-term LNG contracts, ramping up exploration, and pushing renewables, a government source previously told us, adding that there are new reserves potentially coming online as soon as March.

It’s probably not a coincidence that the Egypt Energy Show is kicking off today, with the government eagerly hoping to ink agreements to further investment in the sector and up production to help close the gap between domestic supply and demand.

REMEMBER- Following a costly few months of energy imports to bridge the gap between local production and demand, the Oil Ministry has been on a mission to start increasing local energy production in 2025. In addition to partially clearing arrears to international oil companies since the EGP float in March, the Oil Ministry is offering new incentives to energy players that include increasing production sharing ratios with foreign companies in exchange for new investments, enhancing exploration efforts, and increasing extraction rates with the aim of boosting local production.

THE INCENTIVES SEEM TO BE WORKING-

#1- Dana Gas has decided to restart energy exploration after receiving some of its outstanding dues from the government, two unnamed sources told Asharq Business. The Emirati energy giant will begin exploration in March under a previously announced USD 100 mn program inked with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation. The program includes the drilling of 11 new wells and is expected to add 80 bn cubic feet of gas reserves.

Outstanding arrears have long been a sticking point for Dana Gas, with the company announcing in November that it is putting on hold its USD 100 mn project to develop production until it receives USD 24 mn out of a total USD 59 mn of outstanding dues owed by the Madbouly government. The government settled an additional USD 20 mn of its dues owed to Dana Gas in December, according to Asharq Business’ sources.

#2- Global energy giant BP kicked off production from the second development phase of its Raven natural gas field in its North Alexandria offshore concession, the energy firm said in a statement. The new wells will produce some 220 bn cbf of gas and 7 mn barrels of condensate. The firm completed the drilling of two gas wells in the Raven field last month — it invested USD 400 mn in the drilling operations.

What they said: “The focus of the Raven Infills project has been to fight natural decline and increase production while maximizing our existing infrastructure to meet Egypt’s domestic market demand at pace,” BP Regional President for the Middle East and North Africa Nader Zaki said.

ALSO IN ENERGY NEWS-

United Energy Group’s (UEG) acquisition of Apex International Energy’s Egypt operation came in at USD 150 mn, according to a disclosure (pdf) from the company to the HKEX. The agreement — which came to light last week — will see UEG add Apex’s eight onshore concession areas to its currently five concession-strong portfolio.

5

Diplomacy

El Sisi, Jordan’s Crown Prince discuss Gaza’s reconstruction plan

Egypt, Jordan talk Gaza reconstruction, regional stability: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with Jordan’s Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah to discuss the need to immediately start rebuilding Gaza without displacing its residents, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The Crown Prince reaffirmed Jordan’s support for Egypt’s reconstruction plans and the upcoming emergency Arab summit Egypt is hosting next week.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Also discussed: The two sides touched on the situation in Syria and boosting relations between Egypt and Jordan.

Remember: Last week Egypt said it will propose “a comprehensive vision for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip in a manner that ensures the Palestinian people remain in their homeland and aligns with their legitimate and legal rights.”

AND- El Sisi meets with head of World Jewish Congress:El Sisi and head of the General Intelligence Service Hassan Rashad met with Ronald Lauder, president of the World Jewish Congress, to discuss stability in the Middle East amid Egypt’s efforts to support the Gaza ceasefire, according to an Ittihadiya statement. Lauder said that he is looking forward to the Egyptian-Arab proposal on Gaza.

ALSO- FM Abdelatty meets with US congressional delegation: Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with a delegation from the US congress to discuss enhancing Egypt-US relations and regional developments, according to a ministry statement. Abdelatty emphasized the need for American support in the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. The talks also covered Egypt’s role in ceasefire negotiations, humanitarian aid to Gaza, and plans for early recovery and reconstruction. The minister reiterated Egypt’s support for a two-state solution and stressed the importance of Israel’s full withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

6

M&A WATCH

CIRA Education to submit an MTO to up its stake in CAED to up to 90%

CIRA Education will submit a mandatory tender offer (MTO) to up its stake in EGX-listed subsidiary Cairo for Educational Services (CAED) to up to 90% from the current 69.4%, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). CIRA is looking to snap an additional 20.6% of its subsidiary — represented in 2.5 mn shares — at an initial price tag of EGP 30 per share, putting the total transaction value at some EGP 74.2 mn by our math.

We knew this was coming: CIRA Education is required to submit an MTO for a bigger stake in CAED after Social Impact Capital increased its stake to from 51.2% to 88.7% in the nation’s leading private-sector education company.

A delisting isn’t part of the plan: CIRA plans to keep CAED listed on the exchange if the MTO goes through.

Market reax: CAED closed at EGP 28.95 during Thursday’s trading — its shares rose 10.6% during yesterday’s trading to EGP 32.02 following the news.

7

Moves

PepsiCo Egypt names Karim Khedr as new senior VP and general manager

PepsiCo Egypt tapped Karim Khedr (LinkedIn) as its new senior vice president and general manager, according to a post on LinkedIn. The PepsiCo veteran has been with the company for 16 years, having most recently served as the multinational’s GM and VP of its Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Jordan cluster.

8

Kudos

Eighteen Egyptians make it onto Forbes Middle East’s 100 Most Powerful Businesswomen list for 2025

The number of Egyptians making it onto Forbes Middle East’s 100 Most PowerfulBusinesswomen is continuing to climb, with 18 leading figures from Egypt making the 2025 list, up from 17 last year. The UAE dominated the list with 46 entries, with First Abu Dhabi Bank Group CEO Hana Al Rostamani topping the list. Egypt came in second, followed by Saudi Arabia with nine entries.

Egyptians on the list included:

  • Dalia Khorshid, group CEO and managing director of Beltone Holding (#12)
  • Soha El Turky, deputy CEO of the National Bank of Egypt (#15)
  • Hend El Sherbini, CEO of Integrated Diagnostics Holding (#42)
  • Mona Zulficar, founding partner of Zulficar & Partners and chair of EFG Holding (#48)
  • Dalia Wahba, CEO of Hassan Allam Utilities (#49)
  • Merette Elsayed, CCO of Hassan Allam Holding and CEO of Legacy (#49)
  • Elham Mahfouz, CEO of the Commercial Bank of Kuwait (#54)
  • Hoda Mansour, IFS’ COO of Asia Pacific, Japan, Middle East & Africa. (#62)
  • Mirna Arif, general manager of Microsoft Egypt (#66)
  • Dalia Ibrahim, CEO of Nahdet Misr Publishing House and founder of EdVentures (#73)
  • Rasha El Azhary, CFO of Vodafone Egypt (#79)
  • Abir Leheta, CEO of Egytrans (#82)
  • Pakinam Kafafi, CEO of TAQA Arabia (#85)
  • Ghada Kandil, Egypt chief director at Bank of New York Mellon (#86)
  • Heba Korra, vice chairman of Korra Energi (#96)
  • Omnia Kelig, deputy CEO of Naeem Holding (#97)
  • Abeer Saleh, managing director of Misr Life Ins. (#98)
  • Ahella El Saban, cofounder of Exits MENA (#100)

9

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan is in motion

Emergency Arab League summit delay? The emergency Arab League summit Egypt is hosting on 27 February could be pushed back a few days, Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki told Lamees El Hadidi on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 30:40). He added that the purpose of the summit is to unify the Arab stance against the displacement of Gazans before engaging with the US on the issue.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan is in motion: El Hekaya’s Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 9:13) spoke with Khaled Abbas, chairman of the Administrative Capital for Urban Development and member of Egypt’s Urban Development and Real Estate Export Committee, about Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly’s meeting on Egypt’s plan for Gaza’s reconstruction. Abbas said the meeting did not go into details but confirmed that “a number of officials and experts are currently working on finalizing this comprehensive vision.”

10

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Al Ismaelia looks to Gulf investors to double its capital

REAL ESTATE-

Al Ismaelia for Real Estate Investment is planning to more than double its capital in an upcoming Gulf financing tour, Chairman Karim Shafei told Asharq Business. The tour, penciled in for 2Q 2025, will look for investors to add to its current capital of EGP 385 mn. The real estate firm aims to expand its portfolio to 50 buildings by the end of 2026, up from the 26 buildings it currently owns in Downtown Cairo.

11

PLANET FINANCE

Trump’s reciprocal tariff drive is throwing international firms for a loop

US President Donald Trump’s push for reciprocal tariffs has sent businesses scrambling to assess the fallout on supply chains and costs, The New York Times writes. While Trump argues the policy is about fairness — matching tariffs imposed on US exports with equivalent duties on imports — it is also a harbinger of significant uncertainty for businesses and policymakers alike.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Where Trump’s tariffs stand so far: Trump has already imposed a 10% tariff on USD 450bn worth of Chinese goods and 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and vowed to impose reciprocal tariffs matching those imposed by other US trade partners. He has also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on US imports from Mexico and Canada, with the measures on hold until 1 March as the neighboring countries continue to negotiate over border security.

Sidelining the WTO: Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy is not just a shift in trade policy — it’s a fundamental challenge to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) role in global trade governance. For decades, the WTO has facilitated trade through multilateral agreements, ensuring that all member nations receive equal tariff treatment. Trump’s approach upends this system, pushing for country-to-country negotiations instead. The shift could have far-reaching consequences, as it erodes the global rules-based trading order and replaces it with a fragmented system of one-on-one trade deals based on direct negotiations.

It also introduces more uncertainty for multinational companies, which must now navigate a patchwork of differing tariff agreements instead of a standardized global framework. “For every widget, every tariff classification, you can have 150 different duty rates,” said law firm Sidley Austin’s Ted Murphy. It is bound to expose businesses to increased compliance costs and introduce uncertainty into global supply chains.

Businesses brace for the fallout: Trump’s latest tariff frenzy has forced international companies to rethink supply chains and investment strategies. Retailers like Walmart have already shifted sourcing from China to India and Mexico, while Columbia Sportswear and MedSource Labs have been exploring factory sites in Central America. However, Trump has now put those regions on notice as well.

The automotive sector is particularly vulnerable, as more than a quarter of US imports are components and raw materials essential for manufacturing. This means that higher tariffs could make American production more expensive, undermining domestic job creation rather than supporting it in direct contradiction to Trump’s stated rationale for the tariffs. “A 25% tariff across the Mexico and Canadian border will blow a hole in the US industry that we have never seen,” Ford CEO Jim Farley warned last week.

A strategy or a high-stakes gamble? While many see Trump’s tariff threats as a blunt protectionist measure, some analysts believe they could serve as a negotiation tactic. “There are a lot of ways this can go very badly for us… But if he can get other countries to open up their markets, there is a narrow path where this could end up promoting trade,” said former US Treasury official Christine McDaniel.

The unpredictability of Trump’s trade moves is leaving businesses and investors in limbo. “We take Trump seriously, but not necessarily literally,” said trade lawyer Ted Murphy. “He talks in broad strokes, but we have to watch what actually emerges.”

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei looking at gains of 0.1%, the Hang Seng up 0.2%, and the Kospi up 0.8%.

EGX30

30,444

+1.5% (YTD: +2.4%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 50.56

Sell 50.70

USD (CIB)

Buy 50.57

Sell 50.67

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,372

-0.1% (YTD: +2.8%)

ADX

9,626

-0.3% (YTD: +2.2%)

DFM

5,362

+0.8% (YTD: +3.9%)

S&P 500

6,115

0.0% (YTD: +4.0%)

FTSE 100

8,732

-0.4% (YTD: +6.8%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,493

-0.1% (YTD: +12.2%)

Brent crude

USD 74.74

-0.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.73

+2.7%

Gold

USD 2,901

-1.5%

BTC

USD 96,307

-1.3% (YTD: +2.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.5% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.4 bn (6.9% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 2.4% YTD.

In the green: Emaar Misr (+6.9%), E-finance (+5.6%), and Rameda Pharma (+4.5%).

In the red: Juhayna (-4.0%) and Telecom Egypt (-0.1%).

12

BLACKBOARD

What is the government doing to keep pace with global e-learning trends?

E-learning isn’t just here to stay — it’s thriving: The global e-learning industry has exploded over the past two decades, growing a staggering 900% since 2000 and showing no signs of slowing down, according to Oxford Learning College. The Covid pandemic further accelerated this trend, fueling an estimated 200% increase in just five years, with the sector now projected to be worth more than USD 370 bn by 2026.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

E-learning is no longer just a fallback option — it’s become the preferred mode of education for many students and employees alike. Around 70% of students say online learning is better than traditional classroom education due to its flexibility, while 80% of businesses now offer online training solutions. Universities have embraced the shift as well, with 98% of institutions introducing online courses, making virtual learning a mainstay in higher education.

THE E-LEARNING STATUS QUO IN EGYPT-

Egypt has made significant strides in e-learning and digital education, a trend that gained momentum in the wake of Covid. While the pandemic accelerated Egypt’s transition to e-learning, the shift actually began years earlier, an Education Ministry source told EnterpriseAM. The launch of the Egyptian Knowledge Bank played a pivotal role in helping schools gradually integrate e-learning tools into the classroom.

Egypt currently has five digital learning platforms that provide virtual learning assistance. Some offer interactive lessons, while others provide students with self-paced study materials, the source told us. Blended learning models — which combine in-person and online education — are becoming the global standard. This offers students greater opportunities to gain career-ready skills and international certifications at lower costs, making early adoption a major advantage.

Egypt is launching the region’s largest e-learning platform: The Education Ministry is working on its most ambitious digital learning project yet — a comprehensive online platform developed in partnership with UNESCO, the official revealed to EnterpriseAM. The fully integrated digital classroom will launch next academic year, providing students with everything they need — from curricula and assessments to subject revision materials — in a single platform. The project aims to tackle classroom overcrowding while also equipping students with critical digital communication skills that are increasingly sought after in the job market.

It could serve as a replacement to private tutoring centers: The platform will be available to students in public, experimental, and private Arabic and language schools via secure access codes, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The initiative is expected to curb reliance on private tutoring centers, offering a tech-driven alternative to traditional after-school lessons. The AI-powered system will function similarly to language-learning apps, providing detailed, interactive explanations tailored to students’ learning preferences. The platform will also feature automated progress tracking, real-time homework feedback, and comprehensive revision tools, enhancing the interactive learning experience.

Bridging the gap to blended learning: The Education Ministry is also working to catch up with global education trends, aiming to produce graduates with digital literacy skills that match those in developed markets. The goal is to ensure students are well-versed in AI-powered learning tools, preparing them for tech-driven work environments, according to the source.

How will the platform work? The platform is currently in its pilot phase and will gradually expand to different grade levels and governorates before rolling out nationwide, the government source told us. The official launch will depend on infrastructure readiness in schools and residential areas. Students will register through their schools, with free access for public school students, while private school students will pay a nominal fee. International schools will not be included in the initiative, the source said.

Will digital learning ease the teacher shortage? Egypt faces a severe teacher shortage, with 469.9k vacancies, which jumped to 665k after the government added 98k new classrooms, according to Education Minister Mohamed Abdel Latif.

However, e-learning is not a substitute for traditional schools — especially in the early grades, Ahmed Samir, CEO of the British International College of Cairo told EnterpriseAM. He added that physical schools remain essential, particularly for younger students, as they provide a crucial social environment that shapes character development and interpersonal skills. That being said, digital tools have proven highly effective in enhancing students’ learning experiences, according to Samir.

Expanding digital education solutions to tackle classroom shortages: Expanding technological solutions for digital learning — including fully online schools and digital certification platforms — could help address Egypt’s classroom shortages, vice head of the Association of Private School Owners in Egypt head Badawi Allam told EnterpriseAM. The Education Ministry’s Madrasetna platform is one of the biggest successes in Egypt’s digital education shift, Allam said. The platform, which started as a state-run educational TV channel, has since evolved into a mobile app, expanding student access to digital learning tools. Meanwhile, private e-learning apps that provide student tracking and virtual tutoring are also becoming a growing investment trend in Egypt’s education sector, he added.

Infrastructure remains a major hurdle: Despite its potential, e-learning still faces major obstacles in Egypt, an Education Ministry official told EnterpriseAM. Many rural and underserved areas lack the necessary digital infrastructure to support online education, making nationwide adoption difficult.

Higher education is ahead of the curve: Unlike K-12 education, Egypt’s higher education sector has been integrating e-learning and distance education for years. The government established the Egyptian E-learning University in 2007, allowing students to attend lectures remotely and earn accredited degrees without needing to be on campus.

Distance learning provides access to quality education at lower costs, President of the Egyptian E-Learning University Hisham Abdelsalam told EnterpriseAM. The university currently offers three accredited programs in business administration, computer science, and educational studies, with plans to launch five new faculties in engineering, media, law, and languages.

Egyptian universities are expanding their e-learning programs: Several major universities in Egypt are ramping up their digital education offerings across multiple disciplines:

  • Cairo University offers distance learning programs in business, humanities, and social sciences. Students can track their attendance and participation online, ensuring they meet academic requirements.
  • Ain Shams University is one of the leading institutions in digital education, providing remote learning programs in science, engineering, and liberal arts. Students can attend live online lectures and take final exams on campus or via e-learning platforms.
  • Mansoura University has developed online courses in technology, engineering, and professional skills development, including short-term training programs for career advancement.

FEBRUARY

13-17 February (Thursday-Monday): The 10th Annual Conference of the Businesswomen of Egypt 21 Association, the Arab League HQ, Cairo.

17 February: (Monday): Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides will visit Egypt to sign agreements to transport Cypriot gas to Egypt to be liquefied and exported.

17-19 February (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

18 February (Tuesday): Government to publish trade balance figures.

18-19 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): German-Egyptian Joint Economic Committee meetings, Cairo, Egypt

20 February (Thursday): The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to decide interest rates.

20 February (Thursday): The Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle and Kickstart Innovation are hosting Innovate Together: Business Opportunities Between Egypt and Switzerland

21-23 February ( Friday-Sunday): The First Arab Fraud Combating Summit.

BP to bring the second well of its Raven natural gas project online, with additional production capacity expected.

Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to bring total investments in the Pyramids Plateau to EGP 1.5 bn.

Subscription period for Your Home in Egypt initiative opens.

MARCH

3 March (Monday): Central bank to publish foreign reserve data for February.

4 March (Tuesday): S&P Global to release Egypt’s PMI figures for March.

10 March (Monday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for February.

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer.

Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm.

Alwaad Investment to inaugurate a new cold beverage plant with an annual production capacity of 14.5 mn units.

Al Ahly Sabbour to finalize preparations for its EGX listing, offering 20-25% of its shares, with an advisor to be tapped in early 2025.

March-April 2025: The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains from EGX transactions.

APRIL

10 April (Thursday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for March.

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit launches 9th edition, Red Sea

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

MAY

10 May (Saturday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for April.

18-20 May (Sunday-Tuesday): First Arab International Exhibition for Sustainable Development.

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will submit technical and financial bids for Cairo Metro Line 6

JUNE

10 June (Tuesday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for May.

June 2025: MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

June 2025: Nissan and Honda finalise talks about possible merger to create the world’s third largest automobile company by sales.

June 2025: Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

July 2025: Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

July 2025: Israel to begin increasing gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

August 2025: Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

September 2025: Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

September 2025: Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

25 December 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

December 2025: Taqa Arabia and Voltalia to complete studies for repowering the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2025: ADQ to break ground on the development of Ras El Hekma

Early 2025: Al Ismaelia to begin working on two new hotels and hotel apartments in Downtown Cairo.

Early 2025: The Communications Ministry will unveil the second edition of its national AI strategy in early 2025

Early 2025: The Suez Canal Authority to launch an IPO for the Canal Company for Mooring and Lights (CCML) on the EGX.

Early 2025: Orange Egypt to launch 5G services, with EGP 10 bn planned for network upgrades.

Early 2025: BP to begin drilling at the King Mariout Offshore concession.

Early 2025: Jinbei Royal Egypt to begin local assembly of 3k Jinbei vehicles, including the country’s first electric cargo van and microbus

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

1Q 2025: Egypt to sign trade agreements with Bahrain and UAE to slash customs clearance times

1Q 2025: Government to launch EUR 271 mn green industry program to cut emissions

1Q 2025: Egypt-Azerbaijan joint committee to meet to bolster trade and investment ties

1Q 2025: Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association and Turkish Contractors Association to visit Egypt following an invitation from the Investment Minister

1Q 2025: One of four companies, including Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, and a Saudi-affiliated firm, to be selected for the USD 450 mn redevelopment of Delta Fertilizers

1Q 2025: GV Auto to begin local production of FAW Group’s cheapest EV model.

1Q 2025: Alkan Auto to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market.

1Q 2025: Dynamic Distribution to launch a new competitively-priced Fiat model in Egypt.

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta.

1Q 2025: Port Said for Engineering Works to begin construction on a USD 80 mn aluminum foil factory in the SCZone, targeting initial production of 60k tons annually.

1Q 2025: Pearl Polyurethane Systems to start production at its EGP 100 mn polyurethane factory in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

1Q 2025: Sumitomo Electric to officially open its EUR 22 mn cable factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with production set to begin next month.

1Q 2025: Construction of the USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession to wrap up, followed by a pilot run.

1Q 2025: El Araby Group and Sharp to break ground on a USD 50 mn fridge and freezer manufacturing plant in the Quweisna zone.

1Q 2025: Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods to begin production at its USD 50 mn factory in the West Qantara Industrial Zone

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports’ Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports’ Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: EgyptSat Auto to start production at its EV factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Natco to launch Chinese firm Neta Auto’s EV models.

1H 2025: OCI Global to complete the sale of its entire methanol business to Methanex for USD 2.05 bn.

1H 2025: Egypt and the UAE to begin construction of a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone at Al Hamra Port

1H 2025: HoldiPharma to list 25-30% stakes in Misr Pharma and Chemical Industries Development (CID) on the EGX

1H 2025: Korra Energi to list up to 20% stake on the EGX

1H 2025: Smart Villages Development and Management Company plans to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

1H 2025: Halliburton to bring three gas wells online as part of the Burullus project.

1H 2025: Chevron to begin gas production from the offshore Nargis gas field, initially producing 600 mn cf.

1H 2025: Nile Recycling to launch USD 20 mn PET recycling facility in Ain Sokhna, targeting an annual capacity of 22k tons and reducing carbon emissions by 40k tons

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: AMEA Power to bring 500 MW Amunet wind farm online in Ras Ghareb

4Q 2025: Abou Ghaly Motors to introduce the Subaru Solterra to the market

4Q 2025: Two new projects in food manufacturing and home textiles to begin operations in the Qantara West Industrial Zone

2H 2025: National Printing Company to make its EGX debut after delayed IPO plans

2H 2025: Tabarak Holding to list 30% of its shares on the EGX

2H 2025: Turkish apparel company Denim Rise to open a garment manufacturing facility

2H 2024: Hi-Tech Apparel to break ground on a USD 20 mn sportswear factory in the SCZone

2H 2025: Eni to drill two new wells in the Zohr field with USD 160 mn in investments

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

Mid-2025: SN Automotive to launch three locally assembled models — one electric and two gasoline-powered — in Egypt

Mid-2025: Suez’s USD 1.8 bn coal and diesel production complex, developed by Enppi and Petrojet, to be completed

Mid-2025: Wataneya and Safi to debut on the EGX

End of 2025: The Egypt Digital Industrial Platform will expand to include additional services for manufacturers, including the issuance of licenses, building permits, and industrial records

End of 2025: An unnamed Chinese company and the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to begin production at a USD 360 mn tire factory in the SCZone.

End of 2025: A consortium including Redcon Properties and Al Baraka Bank to launch a local real estate investment fund with over EGP 1 bn in initial investments

Late 2025: Baron Hotels to open a new hotel in Sharm El Sheikh and debut its first international property in Zanzibar with 150 luxury suites

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2025: Nafeza to integrate air cargo into its digital customs platform, further streamlining trade logistics

2025: Africa50 completes 42.9% stake acquisition in Raya Data Centers for USD 15 mn to fund construction of a USD 35 mn Tier III data center.

2025: MM Group for Industry and International Trade is set to launch 16 new Tata vehicle models locally.

2025: China to issue USD 411 bn in special treasury bonds

2025: El Attal Holding to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) to launch its EGX debut, offering 5-10% of its shares.**

2025: Basata Holding for Financial Investments to offer 25% stake on the EGX as part of a plan to double its capital to EGP 1.4 bn.**

2025: Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi to open early in the year, alongside debuts of Tapestry Collection and Curio Collection by Hilton.

2025: Palm Hills and Marriott to launch The Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Cairo, featuring 150 branded units across 45 acres

2025: Jaz Hotel Group to set up two new hotels in North Coast, two in Hurghada, and two in Marsa Alam

2025: Sunrise Resorts & Cruises to add 4k hotel rooms to its hotels capacity.

2025: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) to complete studies and kick off production of Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

2025: Polaris Parks to begin development of the industrial park in New October City

2025: EgyptAlum to launch a USD 100 mn foil production line with a 50k-ton annual capacity

2025: Honor to begin operations at its proposed smartphone manufacturing facility in Egypt, with an initial investment of USD 10 mn

2025: Indorama and Phosphate Misr to begin implementation of the USD 400-500 mn phosphate fertilizers plant in Ain Sokhna

FY 2025-26: Egypt to issue its first EGP-denominated sovereign sukuk to finance public investments outside the general budget

FY 2025-26: The government to begin introducing cash-based subsidies on a trial basis in select areas of the country

2025-2027: EUR 4 bn in concessional loans to follow as part of a EUR 7.4 bn package

2026

Baron Hotels to launch two hotels in Egypt with 950 rooms, followed by another with 750 rooms.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00