Get EnterpriseAM daily

Available in your choice of English or Arabic

Act Financial completes the first IPO the local market has seen in two years

1

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt’s growth forecast revised down

Good morning, friends. We are wrapping up this short work week with a brisk issue led by the latest from the Act Financial IPO.

And don’t forget, we’re in line for a long weekend. The public, private, and banking sectors will have the day off tomorrow in observance of the 23 July Revolution.

** EnterpriseAM Egypt will also be taking a break from your inboxes starting tomorrow, but we will be back in your inbox at our customary time on Sunday.

GDP WATCH-

Egypt could be looking at a 4.0% growth this fiscal year -Reuters poll: Economists see Egypt’s GDP growing at 4.0% clip this fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll of 17 economists. This is lower than the 4.35% forecasted in April and the 4.15% estimated in January. “The overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year,” said Capital Economics’ James Swanston, pointing to tighter fiscal and monetary policy and a weakened EGP.

“There are reasons to be more optimistic on GDP growth from FY 2025-26 onward,” he added. Economists see growth rebounding to 4.99% in fiscal year 2025-26.

Less optimistic than most: The forecast is slightly below the 4.1% the IMF has penciled in for the year — the fund revised our growth forecast down 0.3 percentage points last week — and the new government’s 4.2% growth target.

Other notable forecasts: Analysts see the EGP falling to 49.50 against the greenback by the end of the current fiscal year and 52.50 by June 2026. They also see headline inflation cooling to 20.5% by the end of FY 24-25 and 12.05 by the end of the following year and the central bank cutting rates so the overnight lending rate sits at 21.25% by June 2025 and 15.25% by June 2026.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- More Emirati investments ahead? The UAE is also looking to set up new investment projects in Egypt via various financing methods, UAE’s ambassador to Egypt Mariam Al Kaabi said during a meeting with Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk. She pointed out that Egypt has the potential to become a commercial and industrial hub covering the needs of African and European markets.

#2- Efforts to improve Egypt’s investment climate: Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Hassan El Khatib has proposed a number of measures to help improve Egypt’s investment climate, facilitate procedures, and boost priority sectors. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly instructed him to present the proposed measures during the next meeting of the cabinet’s Economic Ministerial Group, according to a cabinet statement.

DEBT WATCH-

CBE soaks up additional liquidity from the market: The Central Bank of Egypt yesterday accepted bids from 32 banks for EGP 947.1 bn in fixed-rate deposits at a rate of 27.75% during its weekly fixed-rate auction, according to data on its website.

PSA-

WEATHER- The heatwave continues in Cairo today, with a high of 38°C and a low of 28°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 35°C and a low of 25°C.

FACT CHECK- No unusual activity on our Mediterranean: The National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics released a statement saying that it hasn’t detected any unusual seismic activity after news spread that Egypt’s Mediterranean beaches could be hit with a tsunami following a forecasted earthquake in the eastern Mediterranean basin.

Still, be careful. Six governorates overlooking the Mediterranean — including Alexandria and Port Said — are on high alert following a “noticeable recession in seawater.”

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Egypt-US Strategic Dialogue penciled in for September: Egypt will be hosting the Egypt-US Strategic Dialogue next September as part of a broader effort by the two countries to “strengthen mutual cooperation,” according to a statement. The strategic dialogue in Cairo will be followed by a meeting of the US-Egypt Joint Economic Committee in Washington.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Our politics-heavy summer continues, with the presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris again dominating front pages after her debut rally saw her bash Trump — who she says is “focused on the past” and would lead a country “of chaos, fear, and hate” — and a Reuters / Ipsos poll sees her fractionally ahead of Agent Orange with voters.

Harris led Trump 44% to 42%, while Joe Biden polled two points behind his archrival just before dropping out of the race. (The caveat: The Reuters poll has a margin of error of ±3%…)

Harris now has a shortlist of frontrunners from which to pick her running mate, according to Democrat donors, who say Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona senator Mark Kelly (a former Navy combat pilot and astronaut), and North Carolina governor Roy Cooper are front-runners. Possible VP candidates are being vetted by Barack Obama’s former attorney-general, Eric Holder, the Financial Times reports.

AND- US Senator Bob Mendnez said he would resign on 20 August after he was convicted on corruption charges, which included bribery and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt’s government. (Reuters)

OVER IN FRANCE- French President Emmanuel Macron said he will not name a new government until after the Olympics are over to avoid “disorder,” rejecting the left’s pick for a prime minister, a civil servant named Lucie Castets. He said the New Popular Front does not have a majority within the National Assembly to ensure a “stable government capable of action” during a TV interview.

AND IN GAZA- Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington, where he signaled that a ceasefire could be near as he prepares for talks with Biden (and Trump on Friday) after making an address to Congress. Senior Hamas officials say he’s still stalling, Reuters reports. Israeli strikes have killed at least 80 people this week as tanks advanced deeper into Khan Younis.


IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- Earnings and AI news are getting the most ink:

#1- Tesla reported its lowest net income margin in five years and lower-than-expected earnings on the back of a drop in automotive sales. (CNBC | Reuters)

#2- Google parent Alphabet beat analyst expectations as a rise in digital ad sales and higher demand for cloud computing boosted revenues. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

#3- ON THE AI FRONT- Meta has released a new version of its AI model, Llama, that it claims rivals offerings from OpenAI and Google — with Mark Zuckerberg saying it can solve complex math problems and digest books in one go.

Zuckerbeg penned a letter defending open source AI and arguing that it will “make the world more prosperous and safer” and that what’s more dangerous is keeping AI in the hands of a small number of companies.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING- Sunday was likely the world’s hottest day on record, according to preliminary data.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We take a look at the Madbouly cabinet’s infrastructure priorities — particularly in the realms of health, housing, telecom, and digitization.

Dive into the Aquaman Experience: A Premier Open Water Swimming Event at Somabay

Aquaman is an exhilarating open water swimming competition set in the breathtaking surroundings of Somabay, Egypt, from 24 to 26 October. With six diverse races catering to various skill levels, it presents a thrilling challenge for swimmers of all ages. International participants can benefit from exclusive promo codes, while Egyptian swimmers can conveniently register in EGP. Join us for a world-class event that celebrates the spirit of competition and aquatic excellence. Register now.

2

IPO

The retail tranche of Act Financial’s IPO was 54.8x oversubscribed

The retail tranche of Act Financial’s IPO was 54.8x covered, with investors subscribing to 3.3 bn shares — worth some EGP 9.5 bn — by the end of their subscription period yesterday, according to a statement (pdf) from IPO manager Zilla Capital. The IPO is the first the Egyptian market has seen since 2022, the statement read.

The details: Retail investors were offered 60 mn shares of the 360 mn shares the investment management firm was offering. Some 26k subscribers participated in the retail tranche of the offering.

ICYMI- The subscription period for institutional investors wrapped up last Thursday, and saw the offering 20.2x oversubscribed, the “highest oversubscription for private offerings on the EGX throughout the last 15 years.” Some 493 subscribers put in offers for 6.1 bn shares, worth some EGP 17.6 bn.

Who subscribed? “A multitude of local and regional investors, including high net wealth individuals, financial institutions and strategic investors” subscribed to the offering, according to the statement.

Refresher: Act Financial is offering some 32% of the company — 360 mn shares — in the first IPO the EGX has seen in a year. The shares are being offered at a price of EGP 2.90 a pop, with the company aiming to raise around EGP 1.04 bn through the offering. Managing Partner Mostafa Abdel Aziz told Enterprise earlier this month that EGP 1 bn of the offering’s proceeds will be invested into three EGX-listed companies this year.

Target reached: The company raised EGP 1.04 bn from its IPO, according to the statement.

What’s next? It remains unclear when exactly Act Financial’s shares will hit the EGX, but it will likely make its debut sometime next week.

It’s been pretty dry for the IPO market: Last year saw only a single company make its EGX debut, with Taqa Arabia listing 1.35 bn shares on the exchange in a technical listing rather than an IPO. No company has made its EGX debut since.

Advisors: Zilla Capital managed the IPO, Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy was the company’s legal advisor, Baker Tilly provided auditing services, and Financial Advice Corporate Transactions was the independent financial advisor to the transaction. Mubasher Trade was placement agent.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

3

Tax

Following up on Egypt’s long-awaited tax policy

Where does the long-awaited tax policy stand? The Finance Ministry is in the process of updating its tax policy framework so that it is more attractive to potential investors, a senior government source told Enterprise.

What’s next? The policy will be presented for public consultation this quarter to be ready in 1Q 2025.

As instructed: In May, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly instructed that the tax policy document be sent to members of the National Dialogue, Chambers of Commerce, and business associations for feedback.

The policy is expected to boost tax revenues: The government expects its tax revenues to jump by around EGP 100 bn once the new policy is put in place, as a result of incorporating the informal economy and encouraging further investment, our source tells us. The government plans to collect EGP 2.0 tn in tax revenues — amount to 77% of total revenues — during the current fiscal year.

Among the main provisions of the new tax policy document:

  • GAFI has the final say: No new taxes will be introduced without prior consultations with the General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI);
  • Foreign investors will get the same tax rate they signed up for: Foreign investors will be subject to the same tax rate that existed when they began their respective projects and investments, and won’t be affected by any future tax amendments.

The goal is to create a sense of certainty for investors: The Finance Ministry is aiming for the document to provide more tax clarity for both local and foreign investors, so as to help them plan their future investments with a greater degree of certainty.

The key to attracting investors: A clear and distinct tax system is the best way to attract new investors — it is more effective than introducing tax incentives that “distort the investment climate,” the source said.

DATA POINT- Egypt’s tax rates are well below the global average, which stands at around 23.37% among 180 countries surveyed. Egypt is looking to maintain that competitive edge in efforts to attract foreign investors, the source added.

Remember: The tax policy has been in the works for some time now and last we heard of it was in April when Madbouly and then-Finance Minister Mohamed Maait held discussions over it, The policy will be used to inform and provide clarity to businesses, investors, and society at large on the country’s targets, policies, and plans for taxation over the next six years, with the government aiming to have the document support individuals as they build their investment strategies, create forecasts, financial models, and feasibility studies with a greater degree of tax certainty.

Read more: We have more details in our previous coverage of the tax policy.

4

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Demand for big-ticket items is on the decline following the float of the EGP

March’s float continues to receive attention from foreign press. Bloomberg is out with a piece looking at the impact the float of the EGP had on the demand for big-ticket items — sofas, refrigerators, and cars.

Why has this impacted demand? Consumers are holding off making any big purchases as they adopt a wait-and-see approach in hopes of further price reductions down the line.“It’s a waiting game between consumers and traders,” EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha told Bloomberg. “The market on both sides is taking time to absorb the exchange-rate volatility witnessed during the last few months.”

Tags:
5

Also on our Radar

Progress on the new capital’s finance hub

REAL ESTATE-

Who will manage the new capital finance hub? An international consortium has submitted a proposal to manage the Cairo International Financial Center (CIFC), an area of the new capital that will house financial institutions, according to a cabinet statement. Prime MInister Mostafa Madbouly asked the consortium to submit a detailed proposal with its plans for the center.

Remember: An Emirati consortium — including Promax Investments and Gulf DataInternationalsigned an MoU with the General Authority for Freezones and Investment last year to set up a finance hub in the new administrative capital.

Big plans ahead: The state is working on regulations to govern the center as we inch towards its inauguration date, Madbouly said, adding that he is looking forward to receiving proposals regarding the matter.

URBAN DEVELOPMENT-

No more converting green areas into commercial areas: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has directed Egypt’s governors to refrain from turning existing green areas into commercial areas as part of the government’s greening plans, according to a cabinet statement. Madbouly also issued directives to greenify all road axes as part of the plan to plant 100 mn trees.

M&A-

An Egyptian-Emirati consortium is looking to acquire a 25-30% stake in one of the companies owned by the Public Enterprise Ministry’s Cotton and Textile Industries Holding Company, Al Borsa reports, citing informed sources. The ministry is in the process of reviewing the offer and is set to make its decision by the end of the month.

MINING-

BRICS nations to set up joint geological platform: Egypt and its fellow BRICS member states have agreed to set up a shared geological platform to facilitate the exchange of knowledge, technological development, and practical experience in mineral resource management, according to a statement. The platform will prioritize geological exploration, regional geological studies, and digitalization in geology.

6

PLANET FINANCE

Insurers braces for a torrent of claims after CrowdStrike goof

The ins. industry could face business interruption claims worth bns of USD after a global tech outage last week triggered by a bad software update from cybersecurity outfit CrowdStrike, Financial Times writes. Leading ins. broker Aon said the outage was set to become “the most important” incident of its kind since the NotPetya cyberattack in 2017.

ICYMI- Blue screens of death for everyone: A routine software update to CrowdStrike’s Falcon Sensor software on Friday threw some 8.5 mn machines running Microsoft Windows into boot loops. The glitch affected dozens of institutions worldwide — including Saudi companies, airports, and government agencies — among many others.

Some already have an estimated cost: Burns & Wilcox liability broker Derek Kilmer sees an ins. loss of at least USD 1 bn with the figure possibly coming in even higher. PA Consulting sees thousands of claims due to the global outage with claims worth multiple bns.

Others had a more guarded outlook, saying it’s too early to guess how much insurers will have to pay out: Many companies can only file claims if tech outages disrupt operations for 6-12 hours or more, while others have caps on the value of damages they can pursue.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are seesawing in early trading, with the ASX 200, Nikkei, and Hang Send all down slightly, while the Kospi and Shanghai Composite were flat at dispatch time. Futures point to selling pressure in both major European markets and on Wall Street later today.

EGX30

29,195

+0.7% (YTD: +17.3%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.30

Sell 48.44

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.31

Sell 48.41

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,106

-0.6% (YTD: +1.2%)

ADX

9,234

-0.5% (YTD: -3.6%)

DFM

4,216

+0.9% (YTD: +3.9%)

S&P 500

5,556

-0.2% (YTD: +16.5%)

FTSE 100

8,167

-0.4% (YTD: +5.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,917

+0.4% (YTD: +8.7%)

Brent crude

USD 81.01

-1.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.16

-1.2%

Gold

USD 2,457

+0.1%

BTC

USD 65,953

-3.2% (YTD: +56.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.3 bn (9.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 17.3% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding (+6.3%), ADIB (+6.2%), and Orascom Development (+5.7%).

In the red: Orascom Construction (-1.3%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-1.2%), and Talaat Moustafa Group (-1.2%).

7

Diplomacy

Egyptian and Sudanese foreign ministers discuss war in Sudan

Egyptian-Sudanese talks: Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty discussed the ongoing civil war in Sudan with his Sudanese counterpart Hussein Awad in Cairo, according to a statement. The two sides discussed Egypt’s role in facilitating a resolution to war, Egyptian investments in the country, and efforts to provide humanitarian aid for the Sudanese people.

Earlier this month, Cairo hosted a conference aimed at working toward an end to the war in Sudan, with participation from various political entities, including the UN, African Union, Arab League, and European Union.


Egypt welcomed the UN-brokered agreement between the Yemeni government and the Houthis, hoping that it marks the first step towards a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Yemen, according to a statement from the Foreign Ministry. The government said that it will continue to look into operating direct flights between Cairo and Yemen’s Sana’a.

8

HARDHAT

More on the new cabinet’s goals for real estate, healthcare, and communications infrastructure

What does the new cabinet have lined up for healthcare, housing, and communications infrastructure? More public hospitals, clinics, housing, and a renewed push to extend telecom reach and digitization are some of the infrastructure goals highlighted in a 276-page report that lays out the new Madbouly-led government’s agenda for the coming three years.

ICYMI: We have also run deep dives on the new cabinet’s logistics and transport infrastructure strategy, green agenda, and education policy.

HEALTHCARE-

More hospitals and clinics: The cabinet has outlined ambitious targets for the construction of new hospitals and clinics and the refurbishment of existing healthcare facilities as part of a bid to boost health coverage. The report sees the state building or rehabilitating 54 hospitals and 516 clinics during the current FY 2024-25, with that target moving to 30 hospitals and 500 clinics in FY 2025-26, before scaling up to 164 hospitals and 3k clinics by 2030. Along with the planned investment in healthcare facilities is the government’s ambitious goal of reaching 100% insurance coverage by 2030.

Also lined up for investments: Emergency medical services, medical equipment at health facilities, and specialized units such as ICUs, cancer wards, and neonatal incubators throughout Egypt are also expected to see upgrades. Improvements to mental health services, rehabilitation clinics, and health ministry laboratories are also on the agenda. Meanwhile, the private sector will receive incentives for investments in the local medical and pharma industries.

The renewed drive for healthcare infrastructure will also see an emphasis on peripheral regions: Outlying governorates will benefit from new specialist hospitals, with remote regions also gaining better coverage via mobile clinics. Meanwhile the private sector will receive facilitated funding for investments in healthcare establishments in new cities and border regions, the report says.

More digitization in the healthcare sector is also on the agenda: The new cabinet has also outlined plans to boost digitalization and harness AI in healthcare in order to improve services. This will involve improved governance for healthcare databases via supporting legislation, regulation, and oversight. The report also outlines continued efforts toward a unified national healthcare database and a unified platform for all public health facilities.

HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE-

Social housing projects are getting a shot in the arm: The report outlines a six-fold increase in the number of social housing units, rising from some 54k units at the end of FY 2023-24 to 324k units by 2030, the report says. The expansion should see the number of people benefiting from social housing ramp up from 266k residents to 1.6 mn during the same period.

Doubling down on the real estate sector: The new government intends to put in place measures to support investments in Egypt’s real estate and construction sectors, singling out the sector as critical to the economy’s future success. These include steps to streamline urban planning and digitize permits. Efforts to support real estate exports also got a mention, with the government eyeing plans to improve the competitiveness of the local real estate market as a destination for international investments. Also on the agenda is more private sector involvement in infrastructure projects.

Green cities got a mention too: The policy report highlighted a renewed emphasis on green and sustainable buildings, with the government lining up new legislation to codify standards and licensing for green real estate projects. Also in the pipeline are sustainable cities, powered by renewable energy and leveraging circular economies in accordance with government-set guidelines.

DIGITAL AND COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE-

Better connectedness: The state plans to double down on projects to develop telecom and digital infrastructure throughout Egypt and extend their coverage, particularly in remote regions. The number of cellular towers is slated to increase from 35k towers in FY 2023-24 to some 48k by 2030. The report also sees the portion of broadband subscriptions per 100 people increasing from 51.8 at present to 56.3 by 2030, with the same period seeing cellular data coverage increasing from 75% to 79% of Egypt’s population. These and other investments are slated to see the contribution of the communications and IT sector to GDP increasing from 5.8% in FY 2023-24 to 8% by 2030.

Data centers and subsea cables: The cabinet is also looking to put together an integrated plan to reel in investments for data centers in Egypt. Also on the cards is a freezone leveraging close proximity to subsea cables that carry 90% of data between Europe, Africa, and Asia.

More e-government is also on the agenda: The report notes continuing initiatives to connect all government buildings with fiber optic cables as part of a drive to promote a digital economy and e-government. The proportion of government transactions that are processed digitally is slated to rise from some 33% for the 2023-24 fiscal year to 37% by 2030.

And to protect all this data: The cabinet looks to roll out new legal and regulatory frameworks to promote cybersecurity and combat cybercrimes while putting in place plans to hedge against cyberattacks, the report says. These measures look to boost Egypt’s ranking in the UN’s International Telecommunication Union’s Global Cybersecurity Index. The report also places particular emphasis on securing the digital infrastructure of critical sectors such as defense, healthcare, education, and finance.

The private sector will also have to play its part in protecting data, with the cabinet planning to promote local and international investment in cybersecurity and to establish incubators for startups in the field. Large private sector companies will also be encouraged to take steps to protect their data from cyberattacks.


Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

  • CSCEC, Concrete Plus to build EGP 2.6 bn fence for high-speed electric rail: Chinese state-owned construction firm China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) and local construction company Concrete Plus have been awarded an EGP 2.6 bn contract to build the external fences on both sides of the high-speed electric railway known as the Green Line. (Al Mal)
  • Gov’t delivers waste recycling plant in Minya: The Local Development Ministry has delivered an EGP 90 mn waste recycling plant in Minya’s Tuna El Gabal area. (Statement)

2024

JULY

25 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the 23 July revolution.

AUGUST

4-5 August (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Expat Forum.

SEPTEMBER

3-5 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

25-28 September (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

13-17 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Water and Climate: Building Resilient Communities, Cairo, Egypt.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

30 September (Monday): Ban on sugar exports expiration.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

12-15 November (Tuesday-Friday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit, Aswan, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

September 2024: Turkish-Egyptian Business Council meeting in Turkey.

September 2024: US-Egypt Strategic Dialogue, Cairo.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

End of 2024: Shalateen Mining Company to launch a gold exploration tender in the Eastern Desert.

2025

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00