🏭 Can Egyptian industry weather the reshaping of global trade? Regional volatility and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have forced manufacturers and logistics players to tear up the old playbook. The focus has shifted abruptly from optimizing margins to prioritizing supply chain security. However, as sources told EnterpriseAM, this upheaval presents a window for Egypt to position itself as a safe-haven for trade and investment.

The collapse of maritime traffic through Hormuz — down 97% according to a recent UNCTAD report seen by EnterpriseAM — is triggering acute inflationary pressure. The numbers are stark: oil prices are up 27%, LNG has surged 74%, and bunker fuel costs have doubled. War-risk ins. premiums have skyrocketed by 300%, pushing the cost of a single voyage toward the USD 1 mn mark. Domestically, there are fears that supply bottlenecks could divert natural gas to the national power grid at the expense of industrial feedstock.

Last Tuesday, the government moved ahead with the long-anticipated fuel price hikes of 14.3-30%, citing geopolitical instability and global energy volatility. Notably, gas prices for industry have remained untouched — for now.

Exporters fear losing their price edge. Edita Chairman Hani Berzi warns that the food sector is highly vulnerable to shipping disruptions, further explaining that the primary blow will come from rising freight and marine ins. costs driven by the higher fuel prices and war-risk surcharges. Ins. premiums for vessels passing through Hormuz have already risen to nearly 0.38% of the ship’s value, up from 0.25%, Egytrans CEO Abir Leheta told EnterpriseAM. Shipping lines like Hapag-Lloyd have imposed additional fees of USD 1.5-3.5k per container destined for the Gulf.

Furthermore, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days to the journey, threatening perishable goods and potentially driving up the price of frozen products by 6-16%. In the air, 12% of global cargo capacity was withdrawn almost instantly, and China-Middle East flights dropped by 73.5% in just two days, while land transport costs are expected to rise by 15-20%. Given these conditions, industry reps are discussing mechanisms with the Oil Ministry to allow the private sector to resume direct gas imports for factories, according to our sources.

Egypt’s fertilizer industry is in a tough spot: While it could theoretically fill the global void left by the blockage of one-third of sea-borne fertilizer shipments, nitrogenous fertilizer production is gas-intensive, Chairman of the Export Council for Chemical Industries and Fertilizers Khaled Abul Makarem and Polyserve Chairman Sherif El Gabaly warn that if the energy crisis deepens, the state may prioritize lights over production lines, potentially halting production.

Oil Minister Karim Badawi has pointed to Egypt’s diversified energy sources and long-term contracts as a buffer. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly echoed this, asserting that there will be no power outages or gas supply cuts to the industrial sector.

Industrialists are feeling the squeeze on raw materials. Aluminum prices have surged over 10% since March, which, combined with a 9% currency fluctuation, has pushed total costs up by over 20%, says Delemar Aluminum CEO Mahmoud Haroun. Egypt Aluminum has already hiked factory-gate prices by roughly 9.5% (EGP 14k per ton) compared to late 2025 levels, according to Chamber of Engineering Industries Head Mohamed El Mohandes. However, some remain insulated; Metallurgical Industries Chamber Director Mohamed Hanafi notes that raw copper and aluminum sources from Spain, Russia, and India bypass the Hormuz bottleneck entirely.

In the food sector, Berzi believes that domestic impact may remain limited for now, unless the crisis worsens or triggers a devaluation of the EGP. However, he warned that sectors tied to strategic commodities, such as grains, would be the most sensitive to any prolonged disruptions.

In response, an industrial hedging trend is emerging as companies increase their inventories — especially in food — to ensure continuity and insulate themselves from further shocks, according to Leheta. Berzi advises firms to review their stock levels immediately to maintain continuity in an era of unprecedented global trade uncertainty.

Amid this, Egyptian infrastructure has emerged as a lifeline. Mediterranean ports have become hubs for offloading goods to be transported by land to Red Sea ports and then to the Gulf in less than a day, supported by the exceptional registration waiver for transit goods at Nuweiba, Sokhna, and Safaga. Leheta further pointed to expansions that will raise container capacity to 19 mn TEUs, while the Suez Canal Economic Zone has successfully attracted over USD 15 bn in investment — 70% of which is foreign.

Additionally, the Sumed line provided a strategic alternative by transporting 365 mn barrels of oil in 2025. In this context, ceramic producers are also exploring land exports to neighboring countries such as Libya and Sudan, according to Hossam El Sallab, head of the Ceramics Division at the Federation of Egyptian Industries’ Building Materials Chamber and Vice Chairman of El Sallab Group.

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