2025 was a chaotic year for the logistics sector, but it also pushed the sector to pivot from collecting rents from the Suez Canal to sweating the assets of a real logistics network. We entered the year hoping for a rebound in the canal — but rather than waiting, the market adapted, shifting its attention to 2026 to other areas of the sector.

While the canal stalled, the wider port network sprinted

East Port Said emerged as aglobal superstar — ranking third globally in the Container Port Performance Index. That efficiency turned into investment — with new projects, including a USD 500 mn expansion led by Maersk, a USD 159 mn ro-ro terminal, and a USD 65 mn multipurpose terminal.

As for the canal, the fiscal year was a masterclass in subtraction. Revenues fell 45.5% toUSD 3.6 bn in the 12-month period ending June, net tonnage was cut in half and vessel transits fell 38.5%. But between July and early December, the recovery began to take shape. Revenues climbed 17.5% y-o-y to USD 2.0 bn, with traffic ticking up 5.2%.

Why the shift? It’s not just sentiment — it’s the ins. premiums. The dip in war risk ins. covering ships braving the Red Sea is another cause for optimism — with rates falling by some 70% compared to mid-2024 prices. That drop could change the calculus for shipping CFOs, making the Red Sea route financially viable again for the first time in months.

The question everyone is asking — how serious are ships about returning to the Red Sea? Major shipping giants dipped their toes into Red Sea waters this month, with France’s CMA CGM rerouting its India America Express service and a Maersk ship transiting the strait for the first time in two years.

Privatization is finally boarding, and it is more than just a single tender

After years of speculation, the state has moved from theory to execution on airport management. While the immediate news is the Hurghada International Airport tender, the real story is the policy precedent it sets. With the IFC advising on a program that covers 11 airports, the government is effectively building a new asset class for private operators. Local capital is already positioning itself for this shift, evidenced by Naguib Sawiris forming a consortium with Italian partners to bid for Hurghada, with an eye already trained on future tenders in Luxor and Sohag.

Value-add is replacing storage as the dominant logistics model

The launch of new bonded zone models signifies a move away from simple warehousing toward complex distribution. Transcargo International’s establishment of Egypt’s first customs-licensed, port-based distribution center at Adabiya Port is the prototype for this shift, promising to drive a 20% jump in re-exports. This isn’t an isolated experiment, with DHL Express plugging EUR 24 mn into its largest in-country distribution center — confirming that multinational players are banking on Egypt functioning as a regional sorting hat, not just a destination market.

The great freight shift is about software, not just hardware

The narrative on rail freight has long been about laying track, but 2025 saw the conversation shift to reliability and service. The government’s push to boost capacity by 63% is being underpinned by a massive hardware upgrade — including the ENR-Salcef JV renovating 300 km of track annually and Progress Rail’s locomotive program.

But the true turning point was the entry of private operators like G3A and Transmar, who launched the first fixed-schedule rail freight service. The industry challenge has now evolved from “can we move it?” to “can we move it on time?” as operators work to break the market’s addiction to trucking.

We are seeing the emergence of a truly integrated corridor network

Progress is no longer defined by isolated projects but by the connectivity between them. Of the seven designated logistics corridors, five saw tangible movement this year, linking production centers to export gateways.

This network effect is visible across the board — from Alstom’s investments along the Sokhna-Alexandria and Cairo-Alexandria routes to the Dry Ports Authority allocating land on the Arish-Taba line. Even in the emerging zones, such as Gargoub-Salloum and Safaga-Qena, the simultaneous arrival of terminal investments and private logistics players like Beit Logistics suggests the state is successfully selling the “corridor” concept to investors, even if the Cairo-Aswan and Tanta-Mansoura lines remain the laggards of the system.

The outlook for 2026 is priced for a rebound. The sector is entering the new year with a clear roadmap. The Suez Canal Authority is officially bullish, forecasting revenues to hit USD 8 bn in FY 2026-27, while the release of a comprehensive investment map for all Egyptian ports next year signals a coordinated effort to market these assets globally. The industry consensus is coalescing around 1Q 2026 as the pivot point, where the combination of lower ins. premiums, easing regional tensions, and new capacity will likely trigger the volume recovery everyone has been waiting for.

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