Egypt is working to not just cut down its energy import bill, but become a regional energy exporting powerhouse under a plan detailed in a government document seen by EnterpriseAM. While our energy import bill is expected to reach a burdensome USD 10 bn for the next fiscal year, the state thinks it can reverse its energy trade fortunes and bring in USD 5 bn in energy exports by the end of the decade. This would raise the sector’s contribution to GDP to 8.0% by 2030, up from 5.8%.

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To do this, the government is looking to ramp up private investment, increasing it to EGP 350 bn by 2030 from a projected EGP 208 bn in the next fiscal year. Outside of investment, the private sector will play an increasing role in developing the bidding system for concessions and give inputs on how to make projects in Egypt simpler and more attractive for energy players.

Fresh incentives to push energy players: The Oil Ministry has been offering new incentives to energy players that include increasing production sharing ratios with foreign companies in exchange for new investments and enhancing exploration efforts. The government also agreed with many major energy players to raise the purchase price of energy produced for both local and international players.

Investment will also come from state coffers, with an earmarked EGP 232 bn for the country’s hydrocarbon sector. Around 40% of this will go toward natural gas — a key energy source, which is currently racking up the import bill in the form of costly LNG imports. The money will be put to use improving the national gas network, improving existing refineries in Tanta and Mostorod, establishing a fuel production complex in Suez, and constructing a new distillation unit and a gas recovery unit for the Assiut Oil Refining Company.

The government is also working to boost production by improving infrastructure and refining, which it hopes will help it increase production 18.8% from the current fiscal year to EGP 1.7 tn in the next, assuming prices stay the same. After this, it will work to increase the value of production further to EGP 2.7 tn by the fiscal year 2028-29.

The government’s plan for hydrocarbons will rely on crude production, which will make up 49% of the extraction sector, alongside natural gas at 29% and other extractions at 23.5%.

But despite the expected increase in gas output, a growing population and economy will increase demand, as 289k housing units were added to the national stock of 15.2 mn in the first half of the fiscal year alone. Alongside this is a growing number of factories and commercial units that also use natural gas as their source of energy.

Also accelerating natural gas demand is an uptick in cars that run on compressed natural gas. In the first half of this fiscal year, the number of cars running on natural gas increased by 26.4k to 579k, while natural gas fueling stations increased by 17 to 810.

In this rush to boost output, the government hasn’t forgotten its mission to reduce emissions, with a target to reduce them by 65%. To help achieve this, the government has embarked on a project with the World Bank to reduce gas flaring.

Work is already underway to expand production, with the government setting up 13-15 new oil and gas concession agreements to be signed in the second half of 2025, an unnamed government source told Al Arabiya. This comes under a plan to offer around 32 investment windows and ink agreements across various concession areas such as the Suez Gulf, West Delta, West Mediterranean, and the Maghara region, a government source told EnterpriseAM.

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