Egypt’s real estate market has been cooling since even before the war on Iran

Egypt’s real estate market entered 2026 from a cooler place than the frenzy of the previous two years might suggest. The sector was already normalizing in 2025, with momentum easing even as developers largely held the line on prices, according to a year-end report (pdf) from The Board Consulting (TBC). That gives us a clearer read on where the market stood before the Iran war added a fresh layer of cost pressure, with some industry players warning earlier this month that the conflict could push prices up by as much as 20%.

The cooling showed up clearly in the year’s sales figures. The country’s top 20 developers booked some EGP 1.6 tn in contracted sales in 2025, up 10% y-o-y, even as sales volumes slipped 7% to around 68k units, while average ticket prices rose just 3%. In other words, developers still grew sales in value terms, but did so while moving fewer units in a market that had clearly lost much of its speculative momentum.

Developers kept prices intact by leaning on payment plans. Prices did not fall in 2025 despite softer volumes, according to TBC, which says developers preserved affordability through “extended payment plans” and “calculated NPV adjustments” rather than cutting prices outright. That could remain part of the response this year as well, with Maadar Development CEO Ahmed Ehab telling EnterpriseAM that the company expects payment plans to stay broadly intact, with some additional flexibility possible in selected projects if cost pressures persist.

The bigger shift was in who was buying. One of the clearest signals in the report is that speculative demand cooled sharply. “The investment intent has dropped in 2025,” TBC says, with the share of buyers purchasing primarily for investment falling to “less than 20% in 2025” from 55% in 2024. The firm ties that shift to the fact that “price escalations have almost disappeared completely,” weakening the short-term investment case that had helped drive the market in 2023 and 2024. In its place came longer payment plans, steep cash reductions, and shrinking built-up areas. That said, Ehab tells us some buyers could still move early to lock in prices if the current bout of regional tension starts feeding more clearly into costs in 2026.

The biggest developers pulled further ahead. The top 10 developers sold EGP 1.3 tn last year, up 12% from 2024, while the top 20 reached EGP 1.6 tn and the top 30 hit EGP 1.7 tn. The top 10 alone accounted for almost three-quarters of top-30 sales value, with TBC arguing that “the big fish no longer eats the small fish, it now eats the mid-sized fish.” In other words, a cooler market seems to have favored developers with stronger brands, broader land banks, and greater room to structure pricing and payment terms.

TMG, Palm Hills, and Emaar topped the leaderboard. TMG held onto the top spot with EGP 382.2 bn in contracted sales last year, followed by Palm Hills at EGP 207 bn and Emaar at EGP 179 bn, according to the report. Mountain View came next with EGP 104 bn, followed by Hyde Park and Founders at EGP 87.3 bn, Modon at EGP 79.0 bn, City Edge at EGP 61.3 bn, La Vista at EGP 55.2 bn, and Madinet Masr at EGP 52.1 bn. TBC says performance varied sharply across the top tier, with some developers posting major gains while others lagged or stagnated, adding that it is “still too early to judge” the year’s performance across the board.

This is a correction, not a collapse. “All indicators suggest that Egypt’s real estate sector is entering a phase of normalization,” the report says, adding that “this is not a bubble” but rather “a market correction.” In TBC’s view, buyers have grown more cautious, while years of premium launches have left the market crowded with high-end supply even as purchasing power has not kept pace.

That does not mean new risks are off the table. TBC says the current Iran war is now “the biggest determinant of the performance of all markets in 2026,” and warns that a fresh bout of regional volatility is beginning to feed into local costs. Ehab tells us any resulting price pressure is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt, and that a 20% rise would be on the high side, with increases more likely to be concentrated in new launches or premium units.

What happens next may come down to how long the shock lasts. Ehab says that some buyers could still move early to lock in prices before any new increases come through, especially if developers begin repricing fresh launches. But the bigger swing factor is duration: a quick end to the war could bring deferred demand back into the market, while a longer conflict would likely deepen cost pressures, put more strain on delivery schedules, and force tougher pricing decisions across the sector.