Going green is no longer just a matter of compliance. In the newly released second edition of the National Narrative for Comprehensive Development (pdf), the government’s 2030 green economy strategy cements the state’s move toward viewing the green transition as a key pillar in the country’s economic development and efforts to protect export markets. The green economy is no longer about the state building solar parks or meeting this and that UN target — it’s about an industrial strategy and a national plan that is just as much about the economy as it is about the environment.

For the past decade, the focus in government statements has been on capacity. The state consistently highlighted the launch of large-scale solar projects and the signing of wind farm agreements for wind farms while signaling its ambition in the not-so-distant future to become a green energy hub. While these aims have not been abandoned, the national green agenda is now focusing on the more immediate concern of protecting trade from mechanisms like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Enter the Green Complexity Potential Index

The narrative introduces a development metric called the Green Complexity Potential Index, which measures the country’s ability to produce products that are both green and technologically advanced. The approach moves beyond just protecting existing exports from carbon tariffs and looks to meet the types of products now being demanded by other countries as they too undergo a green transition.

Instead of just focusing on the export of raw renewable energy, we’re looking to export products made using that same source of energy. The report highlights green chemicals and green plastics as high-potential sectors that can repurpose existing industrial infrastructure, along with low-carbon industrial goods like steel and cement, to bypass carbon tariffs imposed on exports.

Despite difficulty getting projects off the ground, green ammonia and green hydrogen are also signalled as primary export products, with the narrative laying out a target of garnering 5-8% of the global market by the end of the decade.

The narrative also seeks to insert the country into new value chains created by the global green push, including actually producing parts used in EVs and EV charging units instead of just assembling vehicles. The move toward this and also the domestic production of solar components won’t be news to regular readers of EnterpriseAM, but some of you may have missed last week’s news reported by us that Chinese heavy equipment manufacturer Sany Group is planning to establish Egypt’s first wind turbine factory.

Giving industries a helping hand to prepare for CBAM

Decarbonizing an industry isn’t easy — and it certainly isn’t cheap. To help the country’s energy-intensive industries targeted by carbon border mechanisms, the narrative lays out a plan to provide fast-track customs and VAT exemptions for industrial equipment that reduces emissions. The narrative also points to a USD 200 mn+ facility to support private sector industrial decarbonization, which will be backed by international partners.

Refuse-derived fuels are also set to play a role, with heavy industries to be pushed to switch from coal and natural gas to the less polluting alternative.

Formalizing green credentials

One of the most important takeaways for the business community is the planned move away from voluntary ESG reporting toward mandatory structural changes. Upcoming amendments to the Companies Law will recognize renewable energy certificates and certificates of origin as formal financial instruments.

By formalizing these certificates, the state is creating a marketplace where companies that over-achieve on carbon targets can sell credits to those that don’t. For exporters, these certificates will serve as the primary proof of their green credentials to bypass carbon border taxes in the EU and elsewhere.

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