Governments around the world are unlikely to keep the globe from warming past 1.5°C, according to UN climate experts, who now expect the key threshold to be breached in the coming decade. In its latest downbeat assessment, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that average global temperatures will rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the first half of the 2030s as governments fail to bring down emissions quickly enough.

1.5°C is key: Countries agreed in Paris in 2015 to reduce emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a limit which the IPCC has warned is necessary to prevent increasingly severe weather events and irreversible climate change.

The planet has already warmed to more than 1.1°C: Average global temperatures reached1.15°C above pre-industrial levels last year, making 2022 the fifth or sixth warmest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Authority.

The IPCC’s assessment is conservative compared to other forecasts: The UK’s weather service said earlier this year that global temperatures could rise beyond 1.5°C as soon as next year should the El Niño weather pattern replace La Niña this year as some experts expect.

The IPCC points the finger squarely on weak commitments and unfulfilled promises: “There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions,” according to the report. Under nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced in the lead up to COP26 in 2021 the world is on track to hit 2.8°C of warming, the report says.

The damage will be worse than previously thought: “For any given future warming level, many climate-related risks are higher than assessed in [the 2014 assessment report], and projected long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed,” the IPCC says. Hazards like heat-related human mortality, food and water-borne illness and flooding near coastal regions are expected to be globally felt in the short term.

Dramatic change is needed to avoid surpassing 1.5°C: The world needs to slash greenhouse gas emissions almost in half by the end of the decade and almost all CO2 emissions by 2050 if we’re to avoid breaching the 1.5°C threshold, according to the report. Even in this scenario of dramatic emission cuts, the world would have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

We have the money to do it: “There is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action,” especially given current economic conditions and the high indebtedness of developing countries, the IPCC says.

Climate flows are rising: Preliminary estimates from the Climate Policy Initiative suggest that climate flows rose to USD 850-940 bn in 2021, up as much as 42% from 2019-2020 and more than double what they were in 2016-2017.

But we’re still way off: The Climate Policy Initiative says that climate flows need to hit USD4.35 tn every year by 2030 to meet climate objectives — almost 5x the estimated figure for 2021.

Government funding will be key: Reducing the barriers to climate finance will require governments to take on a more active role in leading public funding for climate investments, according to the IPCC. Public finances will need to be deployed to reduce the regulatory, cost and market barriers for private capital and improve the risk-return profile for investors, it says.

Adaptation measures may have only limited efficacy as temperatures rise: Adaptation strategies that are feasible today — like building more resilient infrastructure, improving water management practices and developing more efficient agricultural practices — “will become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming,” the report says

Mitigation remains our best bet: A number of mitigation options such as expanding wind and solar energy, accelerating the adoption of green infrastructure, demand-side management and reducing food waste are all increasingly cost-effective and have broad public backing, the IPCC says. In the decade to 2019 unit costs of wind and solar energy decreased by some 55% and 85% respectively, while the lithium ion batteries fell 85%.

And there’s still good reason for countries to focus on mitigation even if we fail to stay within 1.5°C target: While the risks of breaching 1.5°C of warming are serious and difficult to reverse, they are projected to “escalate with every increment of global warming,” the IPCC warns.

Your top green economy stories for the week:

  • Red Sea wind farm financed: Orascom Construction, Engie, and Toyota Tsusho reached financial close on their 500 MW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez.
  • Waste-to-energy: The Madbouly government signeda USD 120 mn agreement with Renergy Egypt and its partners to build and operate a new waste-to-energy facility in Abu Rawash.
  • The military is building the country’s first biogas-powered plantwith Al Mawarid Industrial Products Company.
  • President Abdel Fattah El Sisi received an official invitation from UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to participatein COP28 in Dubai.
  • Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry spoke with US climate envoy John Kerry, to follow up on work begun at COP27 ahead of this year’s climate summit.
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