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The 125k milestone

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity decelerates further in September

Good afternoon, friends. Welcome to the start of a new workweek, and congratulations on it being a short one.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity slipped further in September, as new orders dipped at the quickest pace in five months, according to S&P Global’s latest Purchasing Managers Index report (pdf). The country’s headline figure fell 0.4 percentage points in September to 48.8, decelerating from August’s 49.2 to a three-month low.

The country has been below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for seven straight months and has only pushed up into the green two times since November 2020. Despite the dip, the reading is still above the survey’s historical average of 48.2 since it began in 2011.

** We will have the full rundown of the report in tomorrow morning’s EnterpriseAM, with insight from the analysts and economists we trust the most.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

No single story is dominating today’s headlines, but few are getting top billing:

Trump deploys National Guard into Portland, judge says not so fast: US federal judge Karin Immergut issued a — temporary — restraining order blocking the Trump administration from deploying the National Guard into what the US president called a “war-ravaged city.” The order expires on 18 October, with an extension already requested by the state. The news follows a series of crackdowns on blue cities which Trump claims are breeding grounds for crime and disorder. (CNN | AP | Reuters)

MEANWHILE- Earlier today, Syria held its first-ever parliamentary elections since the fall of Bashar Al Assad 10 months ago. While the elections have been hailed as a step toward democracy, the indirect vote — cast by some 6k regional electors — will only determine two-thirds of the 210 representatives, with the rest directly appointed by interim President Ahmed Al Sharaa. The elected parliament will serve a two-and-a-half-year term, with Syria’s first direct elections taking place towards its end. (CNN | BBC | New York Times | Reuters)

CLOSER TO HOME- Israeli strikes overnight and on Sunday have destroyed several residential buildings in Gaza, Reuters reports. The escalated offensive comes as Egypt plans to host delegations from both Israel and Hamas in Cairo tomorrow in an effort to reach a ceasefire agreement.

enterprise

*** It’s Inside Industry day — your weekly Sunday briefing on all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry explores what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning through to product distribution, land allocation, industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, and regulation and policy.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re in for a moderately warm day, with the mercury set to peak at just 30°C before cooling down to a breezy 18°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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FOR YOUR COMMUTE

Is BTC challenging gold’s dominance or setting up a fall?

🤑 Earlier today, BTC shattered expectations by reaching an all-time high of USD 125k — a milestone that arrives at a pivotal moment in the ongoing debate about cryptocurrency’s role as a safe-haven asset versus traditional gold.

Gold had been outperforming crypto this year, surprising all. Gold futures are up over 46% since the start of the year, compared to BTC’s 31.6% at the time of publication. The cryptocoin’s rally suggests that the performance gap may finally be closing, precisely as several technical analysts had predicted. The new USD 125k high proves this breakout is real, with analysts now eyeing USD 140k as the next target.

Right on schedule: BTC’s October-November rally is happening exactly as history suggested it would. Looking at the past decade, October has been BTC’s best month, with prices rising 90% of the time, while November sees gains 60% of the time. Traders know about this seasonal pattern, which often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy — especially after the typical dip in September.

Meanwhile, gold is showing signs of being stretched too thin. Gold just witnessed its highest two-month gain since 2014, and technical indicators suggest that the metal currency may need to take a breather. Gold’s weekly RSI peaked at almost 80, according to CNBC, a strong breakout that historically requires a period of digestion. Having already hit its projected target, analysts expect some investors might start selling to lock in earnings.

Money on the move: Analysts have been watching to see if money would flow out of gold and into BTC as the metal’s momentum fades. What makes this moment especially interesting is how differently people see BTC as an investment.

The case for going gold: Globally, gold is a safe-haven asset with proven liquidity and regulatory standing. The yellow metal is a known crisis-proof investment, and amid the USD’s sharp 10% decline this year, institutions are pouring their money into it — and a weaker USD means more interest in gold. Central banks are buying gold at record levels, and way more people own gold than BTC globally. The digital currency simply can’t match the institutional advantages that the precious metal maintains.

Doubling down on digital: “Digital gold” has grown 1k% in just five years, while gold has only doubled since 2012. While recognized as a “risk-on investment,” the cryptocurrency has also been a safe-haven asset for many. Its digital scarcity, decentralization, and tech-aligned direction has established it as the more attractive investment for a new generation of investors.

The warning signs: Fundamental risks taint digital gold’s appeal. Business journal Knowledge at Wharton casts light on BTC’s opaque structure of value and ownership. Unlike gold, BTC doesn’t have a physical form for different applications like jewelry, meds, and electronics. In that regard, gold benefits from a transparency not found in BTC’s asset-less value structure. While BTC’s blockchain is public, the owners remain anonymous. The majority of the cryptocoin is owned in fragments by individual investors who don’t understand the cryptocurrency’s risks, rendering it a speculative trade.

What happens next? BTC’s push to USD 125k proves the breakout analysts spotted was real, but it also raises bigger questions about whether it can last. The cryptocurrency acts like a high-growth tech stock, maintaining high prices while building bullish chart patterns. If BTC continues its seasonal strength through November and pushes toward that USD 140k target, the “digital gold” story gains credibility. If it stumbles from these heights while gold steadies, critics’ warning about speculation might be proven right.

What’s clear is that USD 125k isn’t just a number — it’s the latest development in an ongoing argument about whether crypto represents the future of safe investments, or a bubble waiting to pop. As things stand, BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are anticipated to outperform precious metal ETFs in US assets by the end of this year, taking third place as the largest asset in the USD 15 tn ETF industry.

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ON THE TUBE TONIGHT

Wayward goes wayward

📺 Welcome to Tall Pines, Vermont. At the center of this seemingly idyllic community is Tall Pines Academy, a boarding school for troubled teens run by the enigmatic and charismatic Evelyn Wade (the brilliantly unsettling Toni Collette). Wayward follows Alex Dempsey (M. Martin), a cop who relocates to the cozy little town with his pregnant wife Laura (Sarah Gadon), herself a graduate of the Academy and a close friend (and something of a protégé) of Evelyn’s.

When Alex investigates a runaway student and uncovers a pattern of mysterious disappearances, it deepens his suspicions about Evelyn’s methods — and his wife’s allegiances. Meanwhile, two rebellious Canadian teenagers — Leila (Alyvia Alyn Lind), dealing with her sister’s sudden death, and best friend Abbie (Sydney Topliffe), struggling against her strict parents’ control — find themselves trapped at the Academy where they encounter cultish rituals, psychological manipulation, and disturbing group therapy sessions.

The casting is exceptional across the board. Collette delivers a masterclass in quiet menace, creating a character who’s simultaneously terrifying and oddly vulnerable. She is a woman who genuinely believes her extreme methods are helping, which makes her far more compelling than a straightforward villain. Gadon skillfully navigates dual roles as an unwitting victim and a potential accomplice, while the teenage performers are particularly impressive in capturing both youthful defiance and a naive overconfidence.

Through the door to… nowhere. For its first seven episodes, the series is remarkably effective at breadcrumbing clues and maintaining suspense around its central mystery. Unfortunately, the finale undermines much of that. The big reveal fails to deliver genuine scares — instead, embracing the camp and presenting an ending that reads as overly dramatic instead of horrifying. Wayward doesn’t fully commit to examining the horrors of the troubled teen industry — the setup draws from genuine abuses but quickly pivots to a more implausible mystery, missing the chance to engage with its source material more meaningfully.

The verdict? Wayward is undeniably bingeable, with enough style and strong performances to carry viewers through its runtime. The questions it poses about family, manipulation, and identity are genuinely interesting, even if the answers prove unsatisfying. As a creative departure for comedy veteran Martin (who writes and directs as well as stars in the show), it shows real promise for future projects with a tighter focus and a more confident conclusion.

WHERE TO WATCH- Wayward is streaming on Netflix, and you can catch the trailer on YouTube (watch, runtime: 2:15).

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Sports

Barcelona eyes a comeback + Pyramids take on Rwanda once again

Barcelona snaps at Real Madrid’s heels. Sevilla will be welcoming the Blaugrana on their pitch later today at 5:15pm as part of the eighth round of La Liga. Barcelona is hoping to reclaim their throne now that Real Madrid has temporarily claimed the top spot with two points to spare. They are also in desperate need of appeasing their fans following a home defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League.


Round 7 of the Premier League wraps up today, with the headline fixture seeing Manchester City travel to Brentford for a 6:30pm starting whistle. The Citizens sit eighth with 10 points — and need all three today to climb up the table.

All of today’s other matches are kicking off at 4pm:

  • Everton vs. Crystal Palace;
  • Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest;
  • Wolverhampton vs. Brighton;
  • Aston Villa vs. Burnley.


In Italia: Juventus will be shaking hands with Milan tonight at 9:45pm in the marquee clash of Serie A’s sixth round. The Rossoneri lead the table with 12 points after a string of impressive performances since the start of the season. The Bianconeri sit fifth, just one point shy of the leading position.


Other European matches worth keeping an eye on:

  • Fiorentina vs. Roma — Serie A (4pm);
  • Napoli vs. Genoa — Serie A (7pm);
  • Lille vs. Paris Saint-Germain — Ligue 1 (9:45pm);
  • Celta Vigo vs. Atlético Madrid — La Liga (10pm).


Pyramids and Rwanda’s APR will be going head to head in our Air Defense Stadium at 8pm in the second leg of the preliminary round of the Champions League. The defending champions will walk onto the pitch with a comfortable advantage after a first leg 2-0 victory in Kigali, making the path to the round of 32 within reach.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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OUT AND ABOUT

Sunday laughs with Saleh El Nawawy

MARK YOUR CALENDAR-

🎙️ Comedian Saleh El Nawawy is coming to Boom Room on Sunday, 12 October. Start your week off with some fresh stand-up comedy and grab your tickets on Ticketsmarché — they’re selling out fast.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Vocal powerhouses Medhat Saleh and Amal Maher to share the stage at Abdeen Palace tonight. Catch the magic live and secure your tickets today through Tazkarti.

The SheArts Festival returns to spotlight talented women, and is closing off tonight. Expect an exciting lineup of musical performances and plays, along with a series of public workshops you won’t want to miss. Tickets for live shows are available on Ticketsmarché, and you can sign up for workshops through the festival’s Instagram before spots fill up.

Celebrate the Sixth of October holiday with the legendary Ali El Haggar on Monday, 6 October as he delivers another powerful live show at The Balloon Theatre in Agouza. Tickets are available at the door.

This one’s for the Agatha Christie fans: Experience an Egyptian take on classic murder mystery play The Mousetrap with El Masyada at El Rihany Theater, showing every day from Monday, 6 October to Saturday, 11 October. Tickets are available on Ticketsmarché.

Join Omar Khairat for an enchanting evening with A Night at thePalace at Abdeen Palace on Tuesday, 7 October. This is your chance to experience the acclaimed composer live and be part of a good cause — all proceeds from the event will be donated to Shefaa Al Orman Hospital. Tickets are available on Ticketsmarché.

HAPPENING LATER-

Prepare yourself for a transcendent night by the Giza Pyramids with Anyma and his show Quantum Genesys on Friday, 10 October. Get tickets to this ultimate electronic music experience on Ticket Egypt now.

Comedian Mohamed Moula is inaugurating his first standup show in Egypt with MoulaWet2asamNosin at El Rihany Theater on Friday, 10 October, promising a night of non-stop laughter. You can grab your tickets on Ticketsmarché.

Attention Cairo runners: Early bird registration is now open for Cairo Marathon, happening on 6 February 2026. Claim your spot through Cairo Runners’ website before Wednesday, 15 October, or grab regular tickets available until 30 January 2026.

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GO WITH THE FLOW

What the markets are doing on 5 October 2025

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 4.2 bn (5.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.1% YTD.

In the green: ADIB (+4.1%), Misr Cement (+3.7%), and Egypt Aluminum (+2.2%).

In the red: Telecom Egypt (-1.6%), Ibnsina Pharma (-1.3%), and Rameda (-0.9%).

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INSIDE INDUSTRY

Gov’t to boost production of cold-rolled, galvanized, and color-coated sheets via new incentive package

🏭️The government plans to encourage the production of sheet metal through new incentive packages for local manufacturers. Incentives for factories producing cold-rolled, galvanized, and color-coated sheet metal were announced in September and include land granted at competitive prices, flexible payment facilities, soft loans for working capital and production lines, and fast-tracked issuance of operating licenses within just 24 hours.

Local manufacturers will also get first bid in supplying the needs of major national projects, with the goal of localizing the industry, bridging the import gap, and cultivating competition both domestically and internationally. This comes as part of a broader strategy to develop the industrial value chain linked to the iron and steel sector.

The why: Iron, steel, and cold-rolled sheet metal products are the cornerstone of numerous industries — including engineering, home appliances, automotive, motors, transformers — that Egypt seeks to localize and expand to meet domestic demand and boost exports. Expanding local production strengthens the value chain across multiple industries, Metallurgical Industries Chamber head Mohamed Hanafy told EnterpriseAM.

The government has also been intensifying efforts to localize steel production, issuing new licenses for billet production, reallocating surplus supply, and coordinating closely with private-sector companies to formulate a unified industrial policy for the iron industry.

Continued government incentives for manufacturers: President Abdelfattah El Sisi ordered a new package of incentives to support the industrial sector as a whole and speed up the localization of industries. These included new tax exemptions, refunds for part of the value of allocated lands, and an expansion in granting the golden license — a unified approval meant to accelerate projects in priority sectors such as building materials.

The success of this local industrial expansion depends on several factors, including clarity of government policy, speed of decision-making, and “linking investment potential with tangible direct incentives,” Federation of Egyptian Industries board member Mohamed El Bahy told EnterpriseAM. These elements create a truly competitive environment and encourage both local and foreign investors in the long term, he added.

The biggest challenge facing investors is not absence of local demand, but the absence of practical incentives and benefits that support market entry, El Bahy told us. Investment potential must be tied to clear incentives, such as affordable land and competitively priced energy, to make them viable in reality.

What needs to be done: Complimentary licenses and subsidized interest loans top the list of demands from local producers — though the latest incentives have yet to be clarified or discussed with manufacturers. Land-related facilities may mainly benefit new investors, since most local producers already have sufficient land for expansion. It may be worthwhile, however, to offer production licenses at no charge — they currently cost EGP 1k per ton, reaching a total of EGP 300 mn for a license to produce 300k tons — or to provide financing at subsidized interest rates to accelerate expansion and production.

Others think differently: Most manufacturers already have sufficient creditworthiness to obtain bank loans at prevailing interest rates, and may not need credit access facilities themselves, Hanafy told us.

Local manufacturers of metal sheets are also being supported byrecently introducedsafeguard tariffs, with a 11.1% tariff on cold-rolled steel, 12.6% levy on galvanized steel sheets, and 4.9% charge on colored steel sheets coming into effect last month. The decision is meant to protect local industry and encourage domestic production at a time when both Egyptian and foreign players are planning new steel investments in Egypt, a government source told EnterpriseAM.

Chinese and Turkish exporters are still not off the hook over dumping allegations: Exporters of cold-rolled, galvanized, and coated steel sheets from China and Turkey are still awaiting the results of anti-dumping investigations after the Investment Ministry extended its year-long inquiry by another six months. The ministry stressed that the duties are not meant to close the local market to imports, but to ensure fair access that protects both domestic industry and consumers, according to a statement. Certain grades not locally produced but essential to other industries are exempt from temporary duties to avoid harming national production chains.

These protective duties create greater prospects for local manufacturing and reduce dependence on imports, Ashry Steel Chairman Ayman El Ashry told EnterpriseAM. He added that the reciprocal protective measures between Egypt and foreign markets are normal, as Egypt expands domestic production of certain goods while simultaneously increasing exports to key markets — particularly Europe, the US, and Turkey.

How are these duties impacting the prices of the final products? The impact so far has been minimal with no significant effect on consumers, the ministry said in the statement. The imposition of billet import duties came in response to manufacturer demands to protect local production and as a reciprocal response to similar measures by other countries. However, final consumer prices remained stable, with steel prices fixed between EGP 32k–38k per ton, Hanafy told Enterprise.

DATA POINT- Egypt’s imports of hot-rolled sheet metal alone reached USD 540 mn in 2024, and USD 260 mn in 1H 2025, Hanafy said.

What’s next? New investments are expected to be announced in the coming weeks for the production of flat and galvanized sheet metal, after a local manufacturer submitted an official request to the Industry Ministry for production licenses and capacity expansion for other products, a source in the industry told EnterpriseAM. Ashry Steel is also studying the possibility of leveraging the new incentives once they are officially announced and implemented, according to El Ashry.


🗓️ OCTOBER

1-26 October (Wednesday-Sunday): Downtown Contemporary Arts Festival.

5 October (Sunday): Medhat Saleh and Amal Maher at Abdeen Palace.

6 October (Monday): Armed forces day.

6 October (Monday): Ali El Haggar at The Balloon Theatre in Agouza.

6-11 October (Monday-Saturday): El Masyada at El Rihany Theater.

7 October (Tuesday): 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

7 October (Tuesday): A Night at the Palace with Omar Khairat at Abdeen Palace.

10 October (Friday): Anyma at The Great Pyramids.

10 October (Friday): Moula Wet2asam Nosin at El Rihany Theater.

12 October (Sunday): Saleh El Nawawy at Boom Room.

15 October (Wednesday): Scorpions concert at New Capital.

15 October (Wednesday): Cairo Marathon early bird registration ends.

16-18 October (Thursday-Saturday): Oliver at Theatro Arkan.

16-24 October (Thursday-Friday): Gouna Film Festival.

24 October (Friday): Cairokee at El Malahy Arena.

30 October – 7 November (Thursday-Friday): Cairo International Jazz Festival.

31 October (Friday): Daylight saving time ends.

NOVEMBER

11 November – 7 December (Tuesday – Sunday): Forever is Now at the Great Pyramids of Giza.

DECEMBER

19 December (Friday): DJ Tiësto at the Giza Plateau.

JANUARY

30 January (Friday): Cairo Marathon normal registration ends.

FEBRUARY

6 February (Friday): Cairo Marathon at Heliopolis, Merryland Park.

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