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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity contraction softens in October

Good afternoon, friends, and happy hump day. We’ve got a hefty issue for you, so let’s dive in.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

📍 Egypt’s non-oil private sector contracted at a slower rate in October, in a sign of a potential recovery after a long period in the red territory, according to S&P Global’s latest Purchasing Managers Index report (pdf). The country’s headline figure improved 0.4 points to 49.2 from the month before.

Despite the improvement, the sector is still in red, having stayed below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for the last eight months in a row. The sector has only pushed up into the green twice since November 2020 and has a series average of just 48.2.

Output volumes hit their slowest pace in eight months, which was driven by improvements in the manufacturing sector outweighing continuing downturns in the services, retail, and construction sectors.

New orders also saw mild improvement under improved market conditions, but again it was manufacturing driving the good news, being the only sector to register an increase in order volumes.

But ratcheting up the pressure on businesses were input costs rising at their fastest rate in five months, driven in no small part by the quickest jump in wages since October 2020.

Looking ahead, the business community is more upbeat — or at least less pessimistic — than they have been recently, expecting an uptick in demand and overall economic conditions.

** We will have a full rundown of the report in tomorrow’s EnterpriseAM, with input and insight from the analysts we trust the most. Stay tuned.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

🌐 It’s a busy afternoon in the global press, with a number of stories getting plenty of ink:

The first major elections of US President Donald Trump’s second term are underway. Alongside gubernatorial elections in both Virginia and New Jersey and congressional elections in California, the mayoral showdown in New York is getting the most attention. The race — which is seeing unprecedented voter turnout — between 34-year-old Democrat Zohran Mamdani and Trump-endorsed former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is set to draw to a close later tonight at 9pm EST.

If Mamdani secures victory in the polls, he would become the city’s youngest — and first Muslim — mayor, yet his victory might see federal funding for New York City cut, Trump threatened earlier, endorsing his opponent, Cuomo. “It is my strong conviction that New York City will be a complete and total economic and social disaster,” the US president said on Truth Social, referring to Mamdani’s potential victory. (CNN | BBC | Reuters | Guardian | Associated Press | New York Times)

OVER IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- US multinational coffee chain Starbucks is set to give up control of its operations in China to Chinese private equity firm Boyu Capital in a USD 4 bn buyout. The agreement would see both companies form a joint venture in which Boyu Capital holds a 60% majority stake. The news follows a steep decline in Starbucks’ market share in China, which fell to 14% in 2024, down from 34% in 2019. Boyu Capital is currently in talks for a loan to facilitate the acquisition. (CNN | Bloomberg | Associated Press | BBC)

ALSO- Former US Vice President Dick Cheney has died at the age of 84. Cheney served as the 46th vice president alongside former US President George W. Bush, and was a central figure in Bush’s “war on terror” following 9/11, having advocated for the war on Iraq. (CNN | BBC)

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re in for another warm but slightly cooler day in Cairo tomorrow, with a high of 30°C and a low of 22°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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FOR YOUR COMMUTE

A Silicon Valley tragedy, Act I

🃏 When Sam Altman snapped “Enough” at an investor’s question about how OpenAI could justify USD 1.4 tn in spending commitments against USD 13 bn in revenue, it wasn’t just irritation, it was the sound of a leader whose ambition may have outpaced reality, realizing that people could see through him.

The testy exchange on venture capitalist Brad Gerstner’s podcast came as OpenAI announced a USD 38 bn agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) the latest in a series of massive infrastructure commitments that now total close to USD 1.5 tn. Beneath Altman’s defensive posturing (runtime: 74:20) lies a more troubling reality: the AI revolution he has championed may be built on financial engineering rather than genuine economic transformation.

The man who promised everything: Altman didn’t just promise to build a better chatbot — he promised to cure cancer, to create “a legitimate PhD-level expert in anything” that would usher in an era of artificial general intelligence capable of transforming humanity. “Scaling frontier AI requires massive, reliable compute,” Altman said when announcing the AWS agreement, positioning himself as the architect of civilization’s next leap forward.

But faced with OpenAI’s mounting financial pressures USD 12 bn in losses just last quarter, according to Microsoft’s earnings report — the company that once promised cures and expertise is now relying on humanity’s oldest commercial impulse: selling intimacy to lonely men. It’s a stunning decline from the lofty rhetoric of yore, and reveals what may be Altman’s fatal flaw: a “consistent pattern of lying” that his own former colleagues warned about in the 52-page memo that cost him his job (if only temporarily).

New details from a recent deposition of Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s former chief scientist, reveal the depth of concern that prompted the attempted coup in 2023. According to Gizmodo, Sutskever spent over a year building his case against Altman before submitting the memo to the board, noting that Altman had allegedly been pushed out of startup accelerator Y Combinator for similar reasons. The board fired Altman on 17 November of the same year, and when he returned four days later, more entrenched than before, the board members who questioned had left.

What is now becoming clear is how Altman’s pattern of providing “different stories to different people” may extend to OpenAI’s entire financial architecture. The Silicon Valley giant has constructed an intricate web of circular agreements where it receives bns from other tech companies before sending those bns back to the same companies to pay for computing power and services, according to a New York Times investigation.

The financial shell game: From 2019 through 2023, Microsoft pumped more than USD 13 bn into OpenAI. OpenAI then funneled most of those bns back to Microsoft to buy cloud computing power. Microsoft, notably, accounts for about 20% of Nvidia’s revenue and is OpenAI’s largest investor, creating a triangle of mutual dependence. When OpenAI outgrew Microsoft’s capacity, Altman replicated the model with other partners:

  • CoreWeave: OpenAI agreed to pay the data center company more than USD 22 bn for computing power across three agreements, while receiving USD 350 mn in CoreWeave stock that could help pay for that same computing power. CoreWeave reportedly derives 60% of its revenue from OpenAI while taking on enormous debt to build facilities for its primary customer.
  • Oracle: Agreed to spend USD 300 bn building new data centers for OpenAI, with OpenAI then paying Oracle roughly the same amount to use these facilities. Despite the massive agreement, Oracle is losing USD 100 mn quarterly on its data center rentals to OpenAI and is forecast to burn nearly USD 29 bn in freecashflow by FY 2028.
  • Nvidia: Announced it would invest USD 100 bn in OpenAI, which could help OpenAI pay for data centers — while OpenAI buys Nvidia’s chips to power them.
  • AMD: OpenAI signed an agreement to buy up to 160 mn shares in the chipmaker at a penny per share — roughly a 10% stake that could supply additional capital to build data centers where it will buy AMD chips.
  • Amazon: This week’s USD 38 bn AWS agreement became possible only after OpenAI renegotiated its Microsoft contract to remove Microsoft’s right of first refusal. The announcement sent Amazon’s stock up more than 5%, adding USD 10 bn to Jeff Bezos’s net worth in a single day.

When confronted by Gerstner about the gap between revenue and spending, Altman offered no specifics, only insisting OpenAI is “doing well more revenue than that” and claiming that the company could reach USD 100 bn in gains… by 2027.

But the numbers tell a different story. OpenAI pulls in bns in revenue annually from customers, but it still loses more money than it makes. Microsoft’s recent earnings suggested that the AI company lost approximately USD 12 bn in the past quarter alone. The company’s blockbuster ChatGPT product — which accounts for the majority of its revenue — is struggling to convert users, with only 5% of its 800 mn active members paying for subscriptions.

This catastrophic conversion rate explains why OpenAI is now chasing revenue wherever it can find it, including pivoting to adult content and a browser that could open up ad revenue streams. This isn’t innovation, it’s desperation — tacit admission that the transformative economic benefits Altman promised aren’t materializing on a timeline that can sustain current investment levels.

Tomorrow’s issue follows the thread to analyze what may happen if faith in Atlman’s vision is lost, and if his fancy financial footwork may take the global economy down with him.

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ON THE TUBE TONIGHT

Rebellion, gore, and politics on season two of Gen V

📺 What if superhumans were human in every way that’s unpleasant? That is the question Amazon Prime’s The Boys posed in 2019. In 2023, Prime debuted its first spin-off on the viral franchise, Gen V, showcasing a rising generation of superheroes — teens coming to terms with their powers and the ludicrous world they live in, all tying back to the main plotline set by its parent show. Picking up right where the first season left off, Gen V’s second season answers all the lingering questions… and raises a hundred others to be answered in the upcoming final season of The Boys.

New year, new beginnings. After a brief but mentally debilitating stint at superhero prison, our cast of characters. Marie (Jaz Sinclair), Cate (Maddie Phillips), Emma (Lizzie Broadway), Jordan Li (London Thor, Derek Luh), and Sam (Asa Germann), are back on campus, and soon realize they’re nothing but pawns in Vought’s game.

Traumatized by their time in confinement, the crew initially play by the rules, only for rebellion to start brewing once again. Questions begin to arise about the mysterious Odessa Project, the true nature of Marie’s superpowers, and who Cipher really is — and what his motivations are. The answers? Far more dangerous than any of them could have imagined.

Glory to the gore. The second season of Gen V takes the franchise’s signature visceral scenes to new heights, with certain sequences eliciting shock in those most accustomed to the show’s explicit nature. The season’s plot is airtight, pacing is on point, and the entire cast delivers. The season ends with most questions answered, leaving us on the edge of our seats as we await the premiere of the franchise’s finale when the final season of The Boys graces our screens next year. Familiar faces from the original franchise make appearances, tying both shows together.

A not-so-family-friendly warning: Gen V and its parent show are not in any way shape or form family-friendly. They are incredibly explicit, with detailed depictions of nudity, intercourse, violence, and gore — amplified by its fictional participants’ superhuman abilities. The show is intended for mature audiences only, and viewer discretion is advised.

WHERE TO WATCH- Gen V Season 2, as are previous seasons of the show and The Boys, is available to stream in full on Prime Video. Watch the trailer on YouTube (runtime: 2:24).

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Sports

Liverpool clashes with Real Madrid

The UEFA Champions League is back on our screens, and with it all the usual excitement, as Matchday 4 of the league phase kicks off with nine matches today, and nine others tomorrow.

Slavia Prague is playing host to Arsenal at the Fortuna Arena tonight at 7:45pm. The Gunners are looking to keep up their perfect run and snag another three points to their existing nine. The home side’s scoreboard? Not as impressive, with only two points under their belt.

All eyes will be on the highly-anticipated clash between Liverpool and Real Madrid at Anfield at 10pm. The match marks the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Merseyside, yet this time as an opponent, not a home player. Alexander-Arnold accompanied a Real Madrid delegation to pay tribute to the late Liverpool player Diogo Jota yesterday. The Reds are currently in 10th place with six points, whereas Los Blancos are one of five teams to have achieved a perfect score of nine from a total of three matches.

Also at 10pm, PSG and Bayern Munich will be going head-to-head at the Parc des Princes. PSG are currently in the lead, with Bayern Munich one step behind as runners-up on goal difference. Thus far, both teams have maintained a perfect score.

Other matches on our radar:

  • Napoli vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (7:45pm);
  • Juventus vs. Sporting CP (10pm);
  • Tottenham Hotspur vs. Copenhagen (10pm);
  • Atlético Madrid vs. Union Saint-Gilloise (10pm);
  • Bodø/Glimt vs. Monaco (10pm);
  • Olympiacos vs. PSV Eindhoven (10pm).


AT HOME- The Egyptian U-17 National Team kicks off their campaign in the Qatar-hosted U-17 World Cup with a match against Haiti. Whistles blew at 3:30pm, and the match is currently underway. You can watch the match right now on beIN Sports. The young pharaohs are in Group E alongside England and Venezuela.

Over in the Egyptian League:

  • Wadi Degla vs. Haras El Hodoud (5pm);
  • Al Mokawloon Al Arab vs. Smouha (8pm);
  • Zed vs. Al Bank Al Ahly (8pm).

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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OUT AND ABOUT

Catch Mina Nader’s Interactive Comedy Show finale

MARK YOUR CALENDAR-

🎙️ Mina Nader is wrapping up a hit run of his Interactive Comedy Show at Hilton Cairo Grand Nile Tower on Thursday, 20 November, Friday, 21 November, and Saturday, 22 November. Experience the comedian’s signature brand of humor one more time — tickets are selling out fast on Ticketsmarché.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Up for a night of back-to-back El Hadaba hits? Garden City’s Room Art Space is hosting a tribute night for Amr Diab featuring singers Hadeer and Ghadeer this Thursday, 6 November. Tickets can be purchased at the door or on EasyKash.

Theatro Arkan is setting us up for a laughing fit this month with its new Comedy Gang Festival at The Golden Theatre. Running two nights a week, starting on Thursday, 6 November and ending on Saturday, 29 November, the festival brings together 56 of our favorite standup comedians with plenty of surprises and special guests in store. You can grab your tickets on Ticketsmarché.

Paying homage to the legendary Lebanese composer Ziad Rahbani, the Cairo Jazz Festival is wrapping up with a tribute concert at AUC Tahrir on Friday, 7 November. In an orchestra led by Wagdy El Fiwy, artists Hazem Shaheen, Hany Adel, Rana Haggag, Nouran Abutaleb, and Alya Nada will be performing a powerful blend of symphonic arrangements with Rahbani’s timeless music. You can secure your spot on Ticketsmarché.

HAPPENING LATER-

This year’s Cairo Comix Festival is celebrating a century of Egyptian comics. Running from Friday, 7 November to Sunday, 9 November, the festival is bringing its comic flair to Zamalek’s Mahmoud Mokhtar Museum with a packed program of immersive gallery events, book talks and signings, workshops, and a comic souk. Entrance is at no charge.

Carerha Summit returns to empower women on Saturday, 15 November, taking place at Sheikh Zayed’s Majarrah. Under the theme Herizon, this year’s summit celebrates women’s professional journeys through an exciting lineup of panels, workshops, and mentorship and career-coaching sessions. Secure your spot through Ticketsmarché.

Bond with your teen at the biggest high school summit. Traverse returns on Friday, 21 November and Saturday, 22 November at Hydeout in Hyde Park. Join thousands of students, parents, and educators for a weekend of fun career-oriented activities. You can book a spot for you and your budding executive at Ticketsmarché.

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GO WITH THE FLOW

What the markets are doing on 4 November 2025

The EGX30 rose 1.2% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 6.7 bn (39.8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 31.4% YTD.

In the green: TMG Holding (+4.8%), Orascom Development (+4.4%), and Telecom Egypt (+3.2%).

In the red: Juhayna (-2.1%), Ibnsina Pharma (-1.2%), and Egypt Aluminum (-1.1%).

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Founder of the Week

Meet our founder of the week: Money Fellows’ Ahmed Wadi

💼 OUR FOUNDER OF THE WEEK- Every Tuesday, Founder of the Week looks at how a successful member of Egypt’s business or startup community got their big break, asks about their experiences running a company, and gets their advice for budding entrepreneurs. Speaking to us this week is Ahmed Wadi (LinkedIn), co-founder and CEO of Money Fellows.

My name is Ahmed Wadi. I’m a computer engineer who studied in Germany, where I completed both my bachelor’s and master’s in computer science at the Technical University of Munich (TUM). My time at TUM was incredibly impactful in building a tech solution like Money Fellows.

Money Fellows is all about giving fair and trusted access to financial tools for people. We’re not just simplifying the existing concept of traditional savings circles (gam’iyyat) — we’re providing solutions to those who either already have access to credit, but find it painful and expensive, or don’t have access at all. Most solutions that existed before were incomplete and often not shariah-compliant. We have changed that.

I started my entrepreneurial journey in the TUM dorm rooms, actually. I had roommates, and we all lived in the same place, constantly solving problems we’ve encountered ourselves with tech solutions. I’ve always been drawn to this intersection of entrepreneurship and digital innovation. I actually went to Germany mainly because of a company we were trying to build. We had started two other initiatives before Money Fellows, so I’d say my career into tech solutions started in those dorms.

I recognized that there’s a major issue in the banking world when it comes to access to credit. When I needed some credit myself, it was a very tough process — I was shocked at how difficult it was. I had this knowledge and background of informal loans and savings through traditional gam’iyyat, but I never understood just how impactful it was. When I learned how common it was across the world and how much it has benefited people, I saw huge potential.

I learned a lot from previous experiences I’ve had, and I knew a few shortcuts to take. I knew that just launching fast and iterating to solve the real problem is what matters. Identifying problems that are actually validated as problems — not just ideas you have — is crucial. Some companies build for years because they want the perfect launch, but there’s no such thing, so immediately after identifying that idea and potential, we just started.

We don’t have direct competition, which is truly exciting globally. We’re the largest company that has managed to digitize this model. There have been trials from major banks and telecom companies across the world, but it has turned out to be a very complex product — unlike what I first thought when I saw it as a window. You need to manage credit assessment, fraud detection, bundling, recommending, managing equilibrium between borrowers, savers, and planners. It’s genuinely a very complex project with a long process and lots of iterations.

While there are buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services that are shariah-compliant and extend lines of credit, we’re fundamentally different. They’re more of a short-term, urgent use case, while we’re more of a long-term financial solution, a planning and wealth management tool. We rely on the idea of collaboration and group savings where members finance each other, and we manage connecting them, assessing them, and ensuring them. We don’t borrow from the bank at a certain rate and charge the client at a higher rate, so we’re a lot more affordable.

I think success is a fleeting feeling — we feel like there’s still a lot to accomplish. There’s a long way to go, and the market isn’t just Egypt, it’s global. But that doesn’t mean that we don’t celebrate every victory, even the small ones, especially early on when no one but us believed it would work. But we had a gut feeling. I would say the only lasting feeling that resembles success comes from the impact we see, from truly contributing to financial inclusion. More than half of our user base has never had access to formal financial systems. That gives us the motive to do something that’s not just convenient, but also truly impactful.

I don’t like the word “disruption.” I believe that we’re creating a new norm of accessing credit and savings using a model that’s been there for hundreds of years, that no one had really digitized at scale. In five years, I see us being a global player — not just operating in one or two countries, but internationally and past unicorn status. We want Money Fellows to be the go-to resort when it comes to achieving financial goals and needs, whether the options are traditional banks, BNPL, or credit.

The industry is tough. It’s very sensitive — you’re dealing with people’s money, it’s highly regulated, it’s political. And our model is very new. We had to draft the regulations. Banks didn’t understand what we wanted to do. We had to build a set of controls and build the product that works for us, not copy other players that have succeeded. This means dealing with a lot of uncertainty and discomfort, making daily decisions about things you don’t have past experience with, and being brave.

Three things I would be keen to change about the industry: regulatory speed — we spent a lot of time fighting for something that other companies had the infrastructure for; transparency and collaboration within the industry — every company and every bank operates in silos, but if we had a decentralized platform to share data about potential fraudsters, it would help every company identify them early on; and overall, more transparency, collaboration, and sharing across the industry.

I don’t think work-life balance is that big of a challenge. It’s overrated. It’s just about being efficient with your time, and it’s something everyone needs to learn regardless of their profession. Once you get out of the office, you need to disconnect. What that means is different to each person — it could be going to the gym, spending time with family and friends. Everyone needs to learn what works for them, then it’s not too difficult.

The last book I read was The MomTest by Rob Fitzpatrick. It’s about how to get genuine feedback — if you ask your mom for feedback, you might not get the information you need to actually improve. It’s all about the way you ask questions. But I’m more into listening to podcasts these days — things that I can consume on the go. I like TheDiaryof a CEO — I believe it’s important to be selective about who you take advice from. If you want to learn something, you need to know that you’re learning from the right people, and The Diary of a CEO interviews experts across different industries that really have something to teach.

What I would tell my younger self when it comes to setting up your business is that building a great team early on — a strong co-founding team — will help accelerate things. You can’t hire the best in the industry when you’re only starting out, so strong mentorship is crucial too. Finding the right mentorship along with the right team, especially ones that fill in gaps where you’re not a subject matter expert, would save so much time versus having to learn everything the hard way.

If I were to give advice to emerging entrepreneurs, I would say start lean, start quickly, start very small, and don’t over-engineer. Of course, you should be thinking long-term and solving a real problem that can actually truly scale. But how to implement it will probably come by launching it quickly and iterating. Start very small. Just start.


🗓️ NOVEMBER

12 October – 16 November (Sunday- Sunday): Cairo International Art District (CIAD) in Downtown Cairo.

30 October – 7 November (Thursday-Friday): Cairo International Jazz Festival.

6 November (Thursday): Amr Diab tribute night at Room Art Space, Garden City.

6-29 November (Thursday-Saturday): Comedy Gang Festival at Theatro Gallery.

7 November (Friday): Homage to Ziad Rahbani at AUC Tahrir Square.

7 November (Friday): Saad ElOud at Theatro Arkan.

7-9 November (Friday-Sunday): Cairo Comix Festival at Mahmoud Mokhtar Cultural Center.

11 November – 6 December (Tuesday-Saturday): Forever is Now at the Great Pyramids of Giza.

14-24 November (Friday-Monday): Art Decoratifs Exhibition by Art D’Egypté at the Egyptian Museum in Tahrir.

15 November (Saturday): Amr Selim at Theatro Arkan.

15 November (Saturday): The TriFactory’s El Gouna Half Marathon, El Gouna.

15 November (Saturday): Carerha Summit at Majarrah, Sheikh Zayed.

20-22 November (Thursday-Saturday): Mina Nader: Interactive Comedy Show at Hilton Cairo Grand Nile.

21-22 November (Friday-Saturday): Traverse Summit at Hydeout, Hyde Park.

21-29 November (Friday-Saturday): Cairo Design Week.

DECEMBER

5 December (Friday): Tul8te at El Malahy Arena.

13 December (Saturday): Marakez Pyramids Half Marathon by The TriFactory.

19 December (Friday): DJ Tiësto at the Giza Plateau.

20 December (Saturday): Ibrahim Maalouf at Concert Hall, New Capital.

December: Al Rawi Awards submissions open.

2026

JANUARY

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas Day.

25 January (Sunday): January 25th Revolution / National Police Day.

30 January (Friday): Cairo Marathon normal registration ends.

FEBRUARY

6 February (Friday): Cairo Marathon at Heliopolis, Merryland Park.

17 February (Tuesday): First day of Ramadan (TBD).

MARCH

20 March (Friday): Eid Al-Fitr (TBD).

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