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Between a rock and a hard place

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Gov’t targets reducing financing gap to 9% by FY 2028/29 under new public debt strategy

Good afternoon, friends, and congratulations on making it to the weekend. It’s been a packed week in the press, and as usual, Thursdays are no exception — let’s dive in. Also in today’s issue: We speak to Egyptians currently residing in the Gulf, take a look at one of Ramadan’s most controversial series, and more.

PSA- The Eid break is officially only a week away, with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly marking Thursday, 19 March to Monday, 23 March as a paid public holiday for government workers. We’re on the lookout for similar statements from the Labor Ministry, the bourse, and the CBE.

🌙 So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:01pm in the capital, and you’ll have until 4:41am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

📍 Egypt is aiming to reduce its gross financing needs to between 9-11% of GDP and bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to a sustainable 71-73% by the end of FY 2028/29, according to the government’s new 2026-2029 medium-term debt management strategy, a document seen exclusively by EnterpriseAM.

The roadmap aims to resolve a critical fiscal bottleneck where interest payments currently devour 70-80% of tax revenues, with the goal of reducing the annual debt service bill to 8.6% of GDP from 11% in FY 2024/25. To achieve this, the government is doubling down on “prudent borrowing,” targeting a 4% primary surplus in FY 2025/26, and executing a structural shift to increase EGP-denominated debt to 80% of public debt by the end of the strategy period to insulate the budget from FX volatility.

The strategy also prioritizes extending the average debt maturity to five years, activating the secondary market to reduce reliance on local banks, and leveraging Egypt’s significantly improved credit profile — with five-year CDS plummeting to 299 bps — to attract a broader base of retail and ESG-focused institutional investors.

^^ We’ll have more on this story in Sunday’s edition of EnterpriseAM.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

🌐 It’s another busy afternoon in the press, with the latest developments in the region leading the front pages. Three tankers were hit in the Arabian Gulf, and vessels near Iraqi waters were reportedly seen burning, sending oil prices soaring. Brent crude jumped over USD 100 per barrel this morning. Iran warned oil prices could reach USD 200 per barrel if the disruption — which the International Energy Agency is calling the biggest in history — continues. Brent crude was trading near USD 97 per barrel as of the time of publication.

^^Read more on: Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC here and here.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • FinMin is taking on board feedback from the business community with an additional eight reforms in its second tax reform package. Driving the ministry’s now 30-reform strong package is the aim of increasing annual tax revenues to EGP 3 tn — up from EGP 2.0 tn in the last fiscal year;
  • The EGP posted gains for the second day running, strengthened by a fresh wave of inflows from Egyptian expats in the Gulf, driven by regional security concerns;
  • The Oil Ministry is moving to clear USD 500 mn in arrear payments to international oil companies before the end of May. The ministry wants to prevent arrears from piling up again, signaling the intention to keep the investment cycle intact despite regional turbulence.

TOMORROW’S WEATHER- This weekend will be windy with a chance of rain and potential dust. Temperatures in the capital are expected to peak at 24°C with a low of 15°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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PLUG IN

How Egyptians in the Gulf are navigating regional uncertainty

🔎 How is the Egyptian diaspora in the Gulf weathering the storm? As geopolitical tensions escalate, the atmosphere among the Egyptian community in the Gulf remains surprisingly steady. Defying the typical imagery of panic or upheaval, the mns of Egyptians living across the region are keeping a close eye on events with a sense of cautious anticipation. For now, they’re holding onto their jobs and delaying any exit decisions, wagering on the continued stability of their host countries.

Life beyond the headlines

Behind the office facades of Dubai and Riyadh, conversations aren’t about escape plans — they’re about risk assessment. One Egyptian expat, a strategic analyst who has lived in the UAE for five years, tells EnterpriseAM that while the conflict casts a shadow over the long-term sustainability of the labor market, current indicators show no real disruption to core business operations.

Despite the jarring contrast in media coverage — ranging from absolute reassurance to dire warnings — daily life continues. Even with the sounds of intercepted drones or falling debris, sources speaking to EnterpriseAM note that transportation and public services haven’t missed abeat. For many, the situation remains under control, and as long as security doesn’t collapse, economic responsibilities make staying the only logical choice.

An Egyptian legacy of resilience

The crisis has highlighted a fascinating divide in how different expatriate communities react. While some populations have adopted a high-alert approach — stocking up on food and prepping emergency bags — Egyptian and Lebanese expats have remained… surprisingly calm. This composure stems from a history of regional instability — having lived through past upheavals, they’ve developed a filter that distinguishes passing threats from total collapse.

However, this calm isn’t without its costs. One Egyptian woman in the UAE described a silent tension that has permeated daily life. Frequent emergency alerts and the hum of interceptors have taken a psychological toll, particularly as they coincided with Ramadan. Beyond immediate safety, the real burden has been the isolation caused by flight cancellations, which have severed physical ties with families back in Egypt, creating a mental weight that trumps any concerns over physical danger.

The logistics of it all

The geography of the conflict has hit the aviation sector hardest. Regional airspace closures have led to a wave of cancellations and record-high ticket prices driven by soaring ins. premiums. One expat recounted to EnterpriseAM how his flight from Dubai to Saudi Arabia was canceled, forcing him to travel overland to perform Umrah. During his bus journey, he observed Riyadh turning into a makeshift transit hub for various nationalities trying to navigate the region by land while the skies remained closed.

In response, the Egyptian government has taken proactive steps. The Foreign Affairs Ministry is coordinating with airlines for exceptional flights and alternative routes. Emergency systems and hotlines at Gulf missions have been activated to provide 24/7 support. Additionally, the General Federation of Egyptians Abroad held a virtual summit last Thursday to ensure the flow of travel and secure emergency transit visas for those stranded.

Why a return to Egypt isn’t the most viable option

The stakes of this waiting game are high. Egypt is one of the world’s largest labor exporters — Capmas data estimates nearly 12 mn Egyptians live abroad, with the International Organization for Migration reporting that 7 mn of said Egyptians are concentrated in the Gulf. This concentration turns any regional instability into a strategic hurdle. For these regularized workers, residency is tied to business stability — meaning a premature departure could potentially throw years of hard-earned professional gains down the drain.

Ahmed Yehia, a digital product designer based in Saudi Arabia, echoes this sentiment. Yehia notes that life in the Kingdom is pretty much “business as usual,” and returning to Egypt isn’t on the table for him. “My career and my life are fully established here, going back now wouldn’t just mean losing a job, it would mean trading financial stability for a domestic market with limited [openings] and a high cost of living,” he tells us. “I’m not ready to sacrifice what I’ve built for regional tensions that we hope will pass.”

For both Yehia and the majority of the diaspora, the situation hasn’t quite yet crossed a certain danger threshold, especially with strict market controls and ensured supply chains. Furthermore, a global perspective helps contain the fear — conversations with friends in Australia or the UK reveal that economic pressure and rising fuel costs are now a universal crisis, not one confined to the region.

The cautious steadfastness of Egyptians in the Gulf is a calculated move to protect years of progress. They’re choosing to stay and monitor the situation, waiting for the winds of war to subside, and for the region to regain its balance. The alternative? Being swept away by impulse.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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ON THE TUBE TONIGHT

Hekayet Narges spotlights the “Daughter of Iblis”

📺 There’s no shortage of heavy, blood-boiling dramas this Ramadan season, but Hekayet Narges, directed by Sameh Alaa, definitely takes the cake for the most uncomfortable. Starring Riham Abdel Ghafour as Narges, the series is based on the real-life story of Aziza, “Bint Iblis,” a woman who struggled to have children, leading her to kidnap several and raise them as her own.

The series kicks off with Narges back at her parents’ house following a sudden, unexpected divorce. We discover that Narges’ husband left her for failing to bear his children. It’s natural, then, to sympathize with the young Narges, and her initial meek demeanor makes it easy to do just that. As the episodes progress, it becomes clear that Narges is no innocent bystander, but a deceitful mastermind.

Seeking to hide the shame of her infertility, she devises a plan to woo a past suitor, Awni (Hamza El Eily), gets him to marry her, doctors papers gaslighting him into thinking he’s infertile, and thus begins a masterplan of playing the victim — a role Narges slips into most effortlessly. After finally convincing Awni to foster a child, their request gets denied on account of their social class, a fact she keeps hidden from him… because she has other ideas.

You won’t be rooting for anyone — and frankly, you shouldn’t. Hekayet Narges isn’t just meant to entertain, it’s meant to raise awareness. The show tackles one of the most infamous crimes in recent memory, diving deep into the depravities of the human mind and the lies people tell themselves to justify their actions. The entire cast, which features industry veterans Ahmed Azmi, Samah Anwar, and Arfa Abdel Rassoul, alongside others, deliver stellar performances, each portraying deeply flawed characters.

Despite the heavy subject matter — and the utter rage felt upon watching it — the show is shaping up to be one of the best in the second half of the Ramadan season. Abdel Ghaffour delivers one of her best performances to date, and the rest of the cast isn’t far behind. From the cinematography and the soundtrack to the tight-knit plot, this is a show you won’t want to miss out on.

WHERE TO WATCH- Hekayet Narges is streaming on Watch It and MBC Shahid.

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Sports

Footie on our radar this weekend

It’s a relatively calm day on the fields today. Alongside several matches in the first leg of the Europa League and Europa Conference League Round of 16, we’re looking forward to a packed weekend with the return of the CAF Champions League, CAF Confederation Cup, and top European leagues.

Tomorrow’s fixtures

A return to the CAF Champions League: The quarter-final first-leg matches of the CAF Champions League kick off tomorrow. Mamelodi Sundowns face Stade Malien at 10pm, while Pyramids FC take on AS FAR at midnight. Both matches will be broadcast on beIN Sports 1.

In the Nile League: Ceramic Cleopatra meets Tala’ea El Gaish in the quarter-finals at 9:30pm on ON Sport 1.

Saturday’s fixtures

In the CAF Confederation Cup: Zamalek faces Otôho d'Oyo at 3pm in the quarter-finals of the Confederation Cup, while Al Masry takes on CR Belouizdad at 10pm. The matches will air on beIN Sports 1 and 4, respectively.

ALSO- The CAF Champions League quarter-finals continue with a match between RS Berkane and Al Hilal (Sudan) at midnight on beIN Sports 3.

Another Super Saturday: The English Premier League is back with a number of high-stakes face-offs, most notably between Arsenal and Everton at 7:30pm on beIN Sports 1.

Also on our radar:

  • Burnley vs. Bournemouth — 5pm;
  • Sunderland vs. Brighton — 5pm;
  • Chelsea vs. Newcastle — 7:30pm;
  • West Ham vs. Manchester City — 10pm.

Over in La Liga: Real Madrid will face Elche in Matchweek 28 of the Spanish League. Real Madrid takes the field on a high following a 3-0 victory over Manchester City yesterday in the Champions League Round of 16 first leg fixtures. Kick-off is at 10pm on beIN Sports 2.


Other major European league action on our radar:

  • Inter Milan vs. Atalanta — Serie A, 4pm;
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich — Bundesliga, 4:30pm;
  • Atletico Madrid vs. Getafe — La Liga, 5:15pm;
  • Lorient vs. Lens — Ligue 1, 6pm;
  • Napoli vs. Lecce — Serie A, 7pm;
  • Udinese vs. Juventus — Serie A, 9:45pm.

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Mark Your Calendar

Celebrate mothers and women with Osana’s garden market

🧺 The World Food Programme (WFP) and Osana are uniting to celebrate Mother’s Day and Women’s Month with a Mother Makers Garden Market at Maadi’s Osana Family Wellness this Saturday, 14 March. The market will feature products made by women supported by WFP’s livelihood and food security programs. This is your chance to shop with purpose and support women-led businesses. The market is open from 11am-4pm.

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GO WITH THE FLOW

What the markets are doing on 12 March 2026

The EGX30 fell 0.9% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 7.1 bn (9.7% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 11.9% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+6.0%), Egypt Aluminum (+4.8%), and Valmore Holding -EGP (+3.9%).

In the red: ADIB (-4.8%), Raya Holding (-4.2%), and GB Corp (-2.8%).


🗓️ MARCH

24 February - 14 March (Tuesday-Saturday): Ramadan Premium Market at the Arena, Cairo West.

8-12 March (Sunday-Thursday): Mohamed Abdel Wahab Museum open in Downtown Cairo.

9-16 March (Monday-Monday): Hakawy El Qahera Tent at the Citadel.

12 March (Thursday): Ramadan program at the Multicultural and Artistic Space at Qaitbey.

13 March (Friday): Hamid El Shaeri at Wayana Tent, Al Baron.

13-14 March (Friday-Saturday): Garage Sale at Darb 15, Maadi.

14 March (Saturday): Mother Makers Garden Market at Osana Family Wellness, Maadi.

21 March (Saturday): Eid Al-Fitr.

21 March (Saturday): Saad El Oud at CJC 610.

22 March (Sunday): Burna Boy at Festival Plaza, El Gouna.

22 March (Sunday): Zarf Tarek Gedan at Heliopolis Library Theater.

27 March (Friday): Wegz at the PUBG Mobile anniversary carnival, the Great Pyramids of Giza.

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Hany Shaker at Theatro Arkan.

7 April (Tuesday): Shakira at the Pyramids of Giza.

13 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

7-9 May (Thursday-Saturday): Sandbox Festival in El Gouna.

26 May (Tuesday): Arafat’s Day.

26 May (Tuesday): Andrea Bocelli at the City of Arts and Culture in the New Administrative Capital.

JUNE

16 June (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

30 June (Tuesday): June 30th Revolution.

JULY

23 July (Thursday): July 23rd Revolution 1952.

24 July (Friday): Adriatique at the North Coast.

AUGUST

21 August (Friday): Black Coffee at Cubix North Coast.

25 August (Thursday): Prophet Muhammad’s Birthday.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

24 October (Saturday): Blue 25th Anniversary Tour at New Capital.

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