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Wednesday, 17 Jun 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
Capital Markets
Automotive
A Message From Auc Onsi Sawiris School Of Business Executive Education
Investment Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar

Why hasn't the futures market taken off?

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Today at a glance

1

Capital markets

Why the EGX30 futures market hasn’t taken off yet.
2

Automotive

Egypt’s auto market cools in April as buyers digest 1Q pull-forward.
3

Investment Watch

Osool wants to add to its TMG position.
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

FinMin keeps the solidarity tax shift on the top line.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Our first real estate tax app.
6

Also on our Radar

Valu secures EGP 600 mn from EBRD to widen access to eco-conscious products.
7

PLANET FINANCE

More choices for biotech firms as competition heats up.
8

HARDHAT

Egypt is redrawing infrastructure finance.

Wednesday, 17 Jun 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
Capital Markets
Automotive
A Message From Auc Onsi Sawiris School Of Business Executive Education
Investment Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Gov’t hits pause on solidarity tax overhaul

Good morning, ladies and gents and happy new hijri year! Before we head to the long weekend — and before CIB and TMG contracts hit the EGX on Sunday — we take a deep dive into EGX30 futures. Three months after their debut, they are barely registering a pulse, averaging just a handful of trades a day.

MEANWHILE- We finally see the hit of the regional war in April’s auto market sales, which dropped to 15.3k units after buyers front-loaded their purchases earlier in the year.

Also on our radar: Osool Securities Brokerage plans to up its current sub-5% position in real estate heavyweight TMG, banking on the developer’s soaring hospitality revenues and its Saudi expansion.

A quick programming note before we dive in: EnterpriseAM Egypt won’t be landing in your inbox tomorrow — we’re taking the day off in observance of the Islamic New Year. Enjoy the long weekend, and we will be back in your inboxes bright and early on Sunday.

***

ARE YOU MORE OF A LISTENER?Morning Drive is a 10-minute summary of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or driving through the morning rush. And if you like it, tell your friends to tell their friends. They can find us on Apple, Spotify, or wherever they get their podcasts.

***

Slightly softer solidarity contribution

The government is delaying its promised overhaul of the solidarity contribution companies pay to help fund the Universal Health Ins. system, government sources tell EnterpriseAM. Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk has asked the House to defer plans to shift the levy’s calculation from gross revenues to net income, citing the heavy human development spending in the FY 2026/27 budget. Kouchouk argued that the state simply cannot afford a funding gap right now as the second phase of the healthcare system prepares to launch in densely populated governorates.

Rejected compromise: The Investment Ministry pitched a middle ground — keeping the 0.25% rate but applying it to net income instead of total revenues to ease the burden on loss-making firms, the sources say. The Finance Ministry shot it down, arguing it would blow a massive hole in a healthcare system that relies on it for the majority of its revenues.

A softer fix for a multi-year saga: The corporate push to move the levy to the bottom line has been stuck in stop-start mode, with the government initially postponing amendments back in 2019, then reviving plans last year to change how the contribution is calculated. Instead of a full pivot, the contribution will be folded into the upcoming third tax relief package in a softer form, according to Kouchouk. Companies will still calculate the 0.25% levy on top-line revenues, but they will finally be allowed to treat it as a tax-deductible expense to ease liquidity pressures — confirming what former Deputy Finance Minister Sherif El Kilany told us late last year.

Real estate taxes? There’s an app for that

The Finance Ministry launched Egypt’s first real estate tax mobile app, along with sweeteners to lure taxpayers to pay their real estate taxes, including quadrupling the exemption ceiling for primary residences, offering amnesty on late penalties, and extending olive branches to owners of unregistered properties, according to a statement.

Here’s what we can expect from the app:

  • The EGP 8 mn exemption: The zero-tax ceiling for primary residences quadruples to an EGP 8 mn market value — up from EGP 2 mn — bowing to Senate pressure last year to reflect market realities and inflation, a source told EnterpriseAM at the time;
  • Consolidated filing: Multi-property owners can now submit a single return and settle liabilities using digital receipts;
  • Settlement incentives: Clearing principal tax debt by 2 October wipes all late fees. Owners with active tax disputes can close them by paying 70% of the owed amount by the same deadline;
  • Voluntary filer deductions: Those who come forward proactively secure a 25% deduction on residential properties (10% non-residential), rising to 30% for advance payments between EGP 200 and EGP 1k;
  • Exemptions for unusable properties: Demolished or otherwise unusable properties are fully tax-exempt;
  • Amnesty for unregistered units: Owners who step forward voluntarily get a clean slate — the Tax Authority is dropping pending appeals, forfeiting its right to contest assessment committee valuations, and greenlighting electronic installment plans.

Why it matters: This digital shift is a welcome change from the original bureaucratic system. The strategy also brings the informal economy into the light with less friction, placing Egypt on track to boost tax revenues by 1-2% of GDP within three years.

Room to grow

Pickalbatros Hotels & Resorts received the green light to borrow USD 200 mn from the World Bank for its Morocco expansion, with funds expected to arrive in August or September, the Arabic press reports, citing Chairman and CEO Kamel Abou Aly. The company is betting on Morocco’s booming tourism industry, which will be boosted when it hosts the 2030 World Cup.

Doubling down on Morocco: Back in 2023, Pickalbatros pledged USD 140 mn in investments through 2025 in Morocco. In 2024, it acquired four hotels and added another — Sofitel Casablanca Tour Blanche — to its country portfolio last April. In May, it filed to acquire Mövenpick Casablanca, which was later approved by regulators.

Expanding at home and abroad: The company aims to launch Le Méridien Heliopolis hotel in Cairo and Royal Paradise Resort in Sharm El Sheikh this year. Last May, the company acquired Oberoi Beach Resort Sahl Hasheesh from EBank, racking up three hotel plays in around five weeks across Morocco and Egypt.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another warm day in Cairo today, with a high of 34°C and a low of 23°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s nicer in Alexandria, with a high of 28°C and a low of 21°C.

And over the long weekend, expect to see similar conditions in the capital (high of 34°C) and a high of 29°C for our friends on the Mediterranean.

You can survive a bad investment, but you cannot undo a severance package you never negotiated.

You're at the stage where the questions have shifted: who gets what, whether your estate survives you intact or gets tied up in courts, whether you exit on your terms or let timing decide for you.

Retirement isn't a finish line but a structure problem, and most people get it wrong. It's not because they ran out of money but because they never asked the right questions at the right time.

In the final issue of EnterpriseAM Money Matters, we cover the decisions that define how you exit: estate planning under Egyptian law, what to actually ask your lawyer before you step back, how to read a severance package, when phased retirement makes financial sense — and when cashing out your options is the smartest move you'll make this decade.

Coming straight to your inbox — today, 11 AM Egypt.

The big story abroad

The details of the US-Iran agreement are out, headlined by a USD 300 bn development fund designed to jumpstart investment into Iran. The private investment vehicle — aimed to incentivize both sides to work on a final deal — is already halfway committed, sources tell Reuters, and will focus on energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transport. Under the terms, the US will also release all frozen Iranian funds and assets and lift all sanctions.

The Hormuz outlook: Upon signing the framework agreement this Friday, the US will lift its naval blockade and — alongside Iran — ensure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reach pre-war level within 30 days.

The Nuclear equation: While Tehran reiterated that it will never produce nuclear weapons, the fate of enriched material and other mutually agreed nuclear issues will be tackled in the final agreement.

What’s next? Once the initial framework is inked, the two sides will have 60 days to reach a final agreement. Bloomberg has the complete text of the 14-point draft agreement here.

And in business news: SpaceX extended its rally during yesterday’s session, dethroning Amazon to become the fifth most valuable company in the world. The company saw its valuation reach almost USD 3 tn during trading, before ending the session at USD 2.7 tn.

Eyes on the Fed: The US Federal Reserve concludes its first policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh today. While markets expect the central bank to hold rates steady, Warsh’s debut post-meeting presser is what we’ll be watching closely for his first substantive comment on inflation and employment.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We break down the end of blanket sovereign guarantees for infrastructure projects, exploring how the government’s push to shield the budget from hidden debt is forcing developers and banks to reprice risk and pivot to alternative models like take-or-pay contracts.

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2

Capital markets

Can futures find takers?

Why EGX futures haven’t taken off yet: When EGX30 index futures went live in March (coinciding exactly with the outbreak of the Iran war), both the bulls and skeptics said the same thing: give it time. Three months in, the product — billed the single biggest upgrade to the EGX’s market architecture in a decade — is averaging a handful of trades a day, with the EGX rolling out single-stock futures in a move that almost recognizes the mismatch between the first index-tracking product and buy-side interest.

SOUND SMART- EGX30 index futures are contracts to buy or sell the bourse’s benchmark index (which includes the EGX’s 30 most liquid listed companies) at a predetermined price on a specified future date. So far, they only come in two flavors: a three-month contract (more liquid and suited to short-term positioning) and a six-month contract (geared toward longer-term hedging). The multiplier is set at EGP 1 per index point, a deliberate play to lower the bar for entry, support liquidity, and enable more precise hedging.

By the numbers: Combined daily turnover across the three- and six-months contracts came in at EGP 641.1k yesterday, a sum the stock market could eclipse in under an hour. Four trades changed hands all day, split evenly between the June and September contracts. By the close, neither contract had a live bid or ask on the screen.

The reasons for the slow start run deeper than the war-clouded market. Local investors have historically preferred backing names they know rather than buying a whole basket of them. The institutional and foreign investors the product was designed for aren’t meaningfully in the market, and retail doesn’t understand it. With market-making still thin and T-bill yields so high that posting margin carries a steep opportunity cost, derivatives are competing with themselves as much as with investor appetite.

Index-linked investing doesn’t have a stellar record here: “People like to buy stocks directly to form a concentration,” Hany Genena, head of research at Al Ahly Pharos, tells EnterpriseAM. When the bourse first introduced exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the EGX30 in 2014, volume never materialized, and the product quietly faded, he adds. Even though the mechanics of futures are different, the underlying behavioral preference is the same. Local investors, retail and institutional alike, want exposure to names they know and have a view on — an index product gives them neither.

There’s a real market-making problem too: “People are afraid that there will be friction due to the absence of sufficient bids and asks,” Genena says. In a thin market, that fear becomes self-fulfilling — investors hold back because they’re worried there won’t be a counterparty, and the absence of participants ensures there isn’t one. The index-tracking ETF ran into exactly this loop, and so far, EGX30 futures look like they may be running into it too.

Pundits are counting on awareness to turn into flow: Volumes will pick up once investors become more familiar with the product, Tasweyat CEO Khaled Amer, whose firm clears and settles all futures transactions on the EGX, tells EnterpriseAM. “The early stages of any derivatives market are typically characterized by gradual adoption as investors, brokers, and market participants familiarize themselves with the product and the associated operational processes,” Amer says. “While volumes remain modest, this is not unusual for a newly-launched market,” he adds.

No hedgers, no hedges

A hedging product can only do so much if the investors it is built for aren’t trading. EGX30 futures were designed with institutional and foreign investors in mind, but so far neither group is showing up in the numbers. The product’s main selling point is its ability to hedge large equity portfolios without forcing investors to sell underlying positions. But that only works if you have sizeable institutional portfolios to hedge in the first place, as well as enough market participants with the systems, mandates, and appetite to trade derivatives alongside their cashholdings.

Foreign participation in the Egyptian market remains a fraction of what it was before the 2022 FX crisis: “The overall percentage of foreign investors in the Egyptian market is currently quite low compared to what it used to be,” Amr El Alfy, Thndr’s head of equity, tells EnterpriseAM. “The driving force in the market so far is mainly retail, specifically Egyptian retail.” Foreigners accounted for 15.4% of the total traded value in listed stocks in 4Q 2021, a share that dropped to 5.4% by 4Q 2025, according to EGX data.

Local institutions face their own constraints. Pension funds and ins. companies, the natural long-term users of hedging instruments, operate under mandates that in many cases don’t yet permit leveraged positions, Genena told us in March. Fund managers that might want to use futures often can’t because their investment policies haven’t caught up with the market’s new products.

Any retail takers? “Retail investors typically do not use futures at all,” El Alfy says. The platform with arguably the widest reach into Egypt’s retail investor base hasn’t activated futures trading on its app yet. “We are not pushing for this right now because trading futures requires a specific license,” he explains. “We are currently still talking about basic investor education for stocks or equity trading. To move into the futures segment, only a small subset of [retail investors] might consider it,” he adds.

The T-Bill problem

Can futures realistically compete with T-bills for investor attention? Amer argues the comparison misses the point. “Treasury bills and futures contracts serve fundamentally different investment objectives,” he tells us. “Investors evaluating futures are typically considering [prospects] for risk management, tactical positioning, or leveraged market exposure rather than comparing them directly with fixed-income returns.”

OUR TAKE- That’s only fair in a market where derivatives are already part of the toolkit. In Egypt, however, investors can still earn riskfree returns of nearly 25% on one-year government paper — the weighted average on the most recent 364-day EGP T-bill auction came in at 24.6%. Whether enough investors find the trade-off worthwhile is a question the clearing house was less keen to answer.

The smarter play

The EGX rolled out single-stock futures earlier this month, starting with contracts on CIB and TMG in a turnaround that may be intended to address the first product’s limitations. Rather than asking investors to take a view on a basket of thirty stocks, the exchange is now offering something they already understand: a leveraged position on two of the market’s most liquid names. CIB and TMG contracts will hit the EGX on Sunday, 21 June.

REFRESHER- The two names account for an outsized share of EGX liquidity. CIB was the single most-traded stock on the exchange in May at EGP 10.4 bn (6.6% of total listed stock turnover), with TMG close behind at EGP 9.7 bn (6.3%). Together, just two tickers out of 200-plus pulled nearly 13% of all listed stock trading value last month.

“When you place a derivative contract on stocks that people already like and see value in, it supports the chances of success,” Genena tells us. CIB and TMG together represent the highest freefloat adjusted market caps on the exchange. Their investor bases (local, regional, and international) are deep, and both stocks carry what Genena calls value. Investors who want to express a directional view on either name can now do it with 4x leverage instead of buying the physical shares, meaning a 1% move in the underlying stock translates into a 4% gain or loss on the futures position.

What’s next

The first real test comes later this month when the June contract expires. It’ll be the market’s first look at the full lifecycle of an EGX30 futures contract — from launch to final settlement — and the first chance to see how the clearing and settlement infrastructure holds up under live conditions. “It will serve as an important practical demonstration of the market infrastructure,” Amer says.

The story the market needs to tell by then is whether single-stock futures can find the audience that index-tracking instruments couldn’t. The conditions needed for broader EGX30 futures adoption (institutional participation, foreign investor appetite, and retail fluency) aren’t there yet. CIB and TMG contracts have better odds precisely because they sidestep those conditions and investors already have a view on them. If CIB and TMG contracts find an audience, and the June expiry goes off without a hitch, the case for the broader derivatives market gets easier to make. If it doesn’t, the market will have a harder sell on its hands.

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3

Automotive

Hitting the brakes

Egypt’s automotive market cooled in April, falling to 15.3k units from 17.8k in March as it digested two months of pulled-forward demand, according to Automotive Marketing Information Council (Amic) figures seen by EnterpriseAM. Buyers had front-loaded purchases through February and March — each clearing 17k units — to beat price hikes and Red Sea shipping disruptions, leaving April to absorb the correction.

The drivers: “April was the height of uncertainty,” industry insider and importer (and Cars by Maged Youtube channel host) Maged El Tawil tells EnterpriseAM. “It was a logistical nightmare for everyone,” he says, citing delayed shipments and a sharply rising local USD that froze consumer spending. Khaled Saad, secretary-general of the Egyptian Association of Automobile Manufacturers, echoes this view, explaining that while early 2026 saw ample inventory and fierce competition, “the war choked the market.”

The breakdown

Passenger car volumes dropped to 11.2k units in April from 14.2k in March. The SUV sub-segment under 2.0L continued sliding for the third consecutive month, with volumes hitting 1.7k in April after falling from 2.2k in February to 2k in March. But this does not mean a structural collapse in SUV demand. “It’s not that SUV demand is softening — it’s that everyone was pulling back from purchasing a car, and since most of what’s being sold today are SUVs, that’s where you see the biggest hit,” El Tawil says.

While the broader truck segment held steady — rising from 2.4k units in March to 2.7k in April — heavy truck sales swung wildly, going from 101 units in February to 25 in March, then recovering to 118 in April. However, El Tawil dismisses it, saying “these are very small numbers — a single real estate developer buying 30 trucks for a new project can move the whole figure.” He links heavy truck demand directly to construction activity, noting that Egypt’s real estate market has “practically stalled.” “Our own sales team is now heavily comprised of former real estate brokers who left property companies to sell cars because the real estate market dried up,” El Tawil says.

The import gap: The divide between completely built unit (CBU) imports — vehicles imported as fully assembled products — and completely knocked-down (CKD) vehicles, shipped as parts for local assembly, persisted through April. Total market CBU sales spiked 65.9% YTD, outpacing the 33.6% YTD growth in CKD. In the passenger car segment, CBU volumes climbed 61.4% YTD compared to just 29.8% for CKD. As we noted in May, this divergence is not a structural market shift — it is the result of distributors clearing out CBU inventory that piled up during 2025’s market paralysis. The Nissan Sunny — locally assembled and Egypt’s top-selling car — held up better given its stable, locally-set pricing, El Tawil adds.

However, the macro strategy is starting to shift defensively toward domestic localization. “Local assembly is actively expanding in Egypt right now as a critical mechanism to bypass the automotive sector’s import bottlenecks and soaring costs,” Saad points out. A key test of whether local assembly can eventually narrow this gap will be upcoming projects like Rox ESI Egypt — a joint venture between Chinese luxury EV maker Rox Global and Ezz El Arab Elsewedy Investments (ESI) set to begin manufacturing the country’s first luxury EV in mid-2027.

MEANWHILE- The Industry Ministry is trying to close auto import loopholes. To stop unregulated importers from squeezing out local manufacturers, the ministry is changing car import quotas for merchants, disabled citizens, and personal use.

EV drop, but undercounted

EV sales nearly halved from 290 units in March to 147 in April — but El Tawil says Amic’s April numbers are undercount and the m-o-m drop reflects logistics disruption more than demand. El Tawil estimates the real April EV figure is “close to 200” once unregistered sales from non-Amic member importers are accounted for. “If there are 20 or 30 players like us, I’d put the number way higher,” he says.

The economics are still turning: EV adoption in Egypt is “a function of gas prices,” El Tawil says — with range-extender EVs cutting monthly fuel costs from EGP 7k-8k to around EGP 5k for a household car driven daily. However, Saad points at traditional fuel pump hikes combined with soaring maintenance costs. “The cost of automotive oils, lubricants, and spare parts for traditional internal combustion engines has risen so significantly that it has heavily tipped the scales in favor of economic EVs.”

For now, the ceiling is infrastructure: Because Egypt lacks widespread infrastructure, buyers are almost exclusively purchasing pure electric vehicles as a “second car” for the household rather than a primary vehicle, keeping volumes constrained, Tawil notes. Saad believes that while a major leap in sales is imminent, “the market is still waiting on a true breakthrough in public charging infrastructure.”

The China shift

On the brand mix, El Tawil says BYD is not the dominant player, as many assume. “I’d say Lynk & Co, Xiaomi, and BYD — but BYD was actually off to a slow start in this market,” he says, pointing to a fragmented Chinese brand landscape where volume is diluted across many names.

The China pivot: El Tawil’s own import ratio has flipped to five or six Chinese cars to one European car today, compared to four European cars to one Chinese car two years ago. “Chinese agencies are currently the fastest-growing segment in the Egyptian market due to a fundamental shift in consumer perception,” Saad says, pointing to improved Chinese technology and pricing compared to European agencies.

What to watch out for

El Tawil flags May, June, and July as the months that will determine whether April was a blip or the start of a softer trend. Summer historically sees a demand uptick driven by two factors: school fees end — freeing up household funds — and expats working in the Gulf returning for the summer with money earmarked for big purchases, including cars. “If it rebounds, April was transient. If the decline continues into May and June, then it becomes a trend.”

BUT- Saad warns that prohibitive pricing is currently capping purchases. “Dealers and distributors have started preparing offers and [price reductions], but the customer is still not matching expectations for this period,” he says. The market’s new baseline goal is simply to match 2025’s total sales volume of 173.8kvehicles by year-end, a target Saad warns could be missed if the USD continues to appreciate against the EGP.

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4

A MESSAGE FROM AUC ONSI SAWIRIS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS EXECUTIVE EDUCATION

How ExecEd’s partnership with Mountain View helped professionalize real estate management in Egypt

Egypt’s real estate sector has expanded rapidly over the past two decades. That growth also exposed a gap: professional development programs tailored to real estate development, finance, investment, operations, asset management, and community management remained limited despite the sector’s increasing complexity.

That gap helped prompt a 17-year partnership between AUC Onsi Sawiris School of Business Executive Education and Mountain View. For Mountain View, the partnership was a strategic bet on the sector’s future: as real estate became more complex, leadership increasingly required management capability, project discipline, and stronger decision-making.

The partnership began in 2009 with the launch of Egypt’s first real estate executive development program, developed alongside the National University of Singapore. Since then, the program portfolio has expanded to cover different career stages and specializations, including the Real Estate Management program, the Real Estate Development and Management Certificate, and the Real Estate Finance and Investment Certificate, alongside various introductory programs for professionals entering the sector.

More than 755 professionals have graduated from one or more programs, while 110 participants are currently enrolled. The pipeline spans career levels, from junior professionals with fewer than five years of experience to senior leaders with more than 11. It also draws from both large companies and SMEs, with 80% of participants coming from local firms, reflecting the focus on building domestic industry capability. Customized versions were also delivered to real estate development companies in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

The collaboration has also grown into a broader industry platform. Conferences, roundtables, and forums have brought together international experts, government ministers, and developers to discuss operational and strategic challenges facing the sector.

The outcome is a training pipeline the sector did not have before. As the offering continues to expand, AUC Onsi Sawiris School of Business Executive Education and Mountain View are positioning executive education as a practical route into more professional real estate management.

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5

Investment Watch

More TMG, please

Osool eyes TMG stake: EGX70-listed Osool Securities Brokerage (Osool ESB) plans on upping its stake in real estate blue-chip Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) — one of the most liquid names in the EGX30 — Chairman Ayman Sabry tells EnterpriseAM. The brokerage firm’s current position in TMG is less than 5%, according to Sabry. Neither the size of the planned increase nor its timeline were disclosed.

The case for TMG speaks for itself: Sabry points to the recentjump in TMG’s hospitality business and its Saudi expansion through a partnership with the Public Investment Fund, which he says will give the group access to premium development land and financing at a scale that puts it on “an unprecedented growth trajectory.”

The move follows a string of small-to-mid-caps M&As that saw Osool break into the pharma sector. In a disclosure to the EGX (pdf), EGX70-listed Memphis Pharma said Osool for Investments acquired 27.4k of its shares for EGP 6.1 mn, bringing its direct ownership to 1.89%. Combined with the 3.18% held by related entities, the group’s total footprint reached 5.07%. Sabry tells us they snapped this stake in Pharma in an EGP 256 mn play via its affiliated vehicles, marking their first investment in the drug-manufacturing sector. Memphis’s market cap currently stands at roughly EGP 4.9 bn.

ALSO- Osool ESB recently bought a 25% stake in Mena Touristic and Real Estate Investment, another EGX70 constituent, for an undisclosed sum, and plans on acquiring more companies with strong assets, solid operational fundamentals, and “distinguished management,” Sabry adds. Mena Touristic has a small market cap of EGP 1.6 bn.

REFRESHER- Emirati capital sits on Osool ESB’s cap table. Abu Dhabi-based Amass Investment acquired 22.35% of Osool ESB in an EGP 100 mn capital increase last year, bringing Osool Holding for Financial Investment’s stake to 56.75%, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf) dated 19 April.

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6

Also on our Radar

EBRD lends Valu to widen access to eco-conscious products

Fintech platform Valu secured a EGP 600 mn (c. EUR 10.7 mn) loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to finance household purchases of energy-efficient and renewable technologies, the lender said in a press release. The facility aims to drive retail adoption of solar power and electric mobility. The EBRD is also attaching a EUR 74.9k technical cooperation package to help Valu build out bespoke green finance products and track eligible retail investments.

REMEMBER- Valu has been steadily expanding its green financing footprint through strategic partnerships — announced last December — with renewable energy infrastructure players, including Infinity and KarmSolar, to finance EV charging infrastructure.

Breaking ground on Afreximbank’s gold refinery

African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is set to break ground on its Egypt-based gold refinery by year-end, investing as much as USD 100 mn in the project, Ayman El Zoghbi, the bank’s director and global head of trade, investment, and corporate finance, told the Arabic press. The facility is expected to launch production within two years, pending the completion of a feasibility study by McKinsey.

The project is part of a broader effort by Afreximbank and the CBE to position Egypt as an international hub for gold refining and trading. The two institutions signed an MoU in December 2025 to commission a feasibility study on the requirements for an integrated gold-banking ecosystem within a designated Egyptian freezone, including an internationally accredited refinery, vaulting infrastructure, and related financial services. The initiative could mark the end of Egypt’s decades-old practice of exporting raw gold only to buy it back as refined bullion, bolstering the country’s monetary sovereignty, credit rating, and borrowing costs.

OTHER STORIES WE’RE WATCHING-

  • Kenz — the Arab African Investment Management's multi-issues equity fund — has two new FRA-approved issuances open for subscription. Kenx EGX70 EWI and Kenz EGX35 LV each target EGP 50 mn across 500k policies at EGP 100 apiece.
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7

PLANET FINANCE

It’s a good time to be a biotech

Biotech firms are sitting on a rare double exit window — IPO markets and major pharma acquirers are both competing for the same assets, JPMorgan EMEA healthcare investment banking co-heads Juha Anjala and Roy Wouters told CNBC.

By the numbers: Biotech dealmaking has already hit USD 106 bn from 21 transactions this year, CNBC reports elsewhere, after 2025 saw seven transactions each worth USD 5-15 bn. That puts it on track for its strongest year since its pre-pandemic peak seven years ago.

Why the frenzy: Pharma firms are racing against a patent cliff — when a blockbuster drug's exclusivity expires, generics flood the market and revenues can collapse by 80-90% almost overnight. A wave of those expirations is coming simultaneously, with analysts estimating a sector-wide revenue hit of up to USD 350 bn by 2032. Buying proven biotech assets is the fastest way to replace that pipeline — around half of the best-performing drugs in recent years were acquired rather than developed in-house, with the most competition clustering around metabolic conditions, infectious diseases, and oncology.

The result: The strongest performers are keeping both options open simultaneously — prepping for an IPO while fielding acquisition conversations. Some are choosing the takeover route outright.

GCC sovereign wealth is also circling. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala has been expanding its presence in the biotech sector through its pharma unit arm Mubadala Bio with investments in the US’ ElectraTherapeutics and nutri-tech firm L-Nutra, while the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has been similarly active. Qatar has a sizable biotech investment footprint, with a USD 250 mn play into BridgeBio Pharma and USD 255 mn for Isotope Technologies Munich.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning as the rally sparked by the US-Iran framework agreement cools and investors sit tight ahead of today’s Federal Reserve policy decision. Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi is down 0.1%. Over on Wall Street, equities are set to open higher, with futures in the green.

EGX30

52,047

-0.5% (YTD: +24.4%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 50.16

Sell 50.30

USD (CIB)

Buy 50.12

Sell 50.22

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

11,146

+0.5% (YTD: +6.2%)

ADX

9,936

+1.6% (YTD: -0.3%)

DFM

6,055

+1.7% (YTD: +0.1%)

S&P 500

7,511

-0.6% (YTD: +9.7%)

FTSE 100

10,494

+0.6% (YTD: +5.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,257

+0.5% (YTD: +8.0%)

Brent crude

USD 79.48

-4.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

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THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.5% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 10.2 bn (18.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 24.4% YTD.

In the green: Kima (+4.2%), EFG Holding (+3.2%), and Valmore Holding -EGP (+2.1%).

In the red: E-finance (-2.7%), Eastern Company (-2.3%), and Abu Qir Fertilizers (-2.2%).

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Our weekly deep-dive into infrastructure in Egypt.

Published every Wednesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Hardhat
8

HARDHAT

How PPP financing rules are changing

The government is moving quickly to wind down the era of blanket sovereign guarantees in infrastructure projects — a structural shift that aligns with OECD recommendations to shield the budget from hidden debt. As the Finance Ministry imposes a stricter cap on new guarantees to limit contingent liabilities, market players are saying the squeeze has not derailed financing. Instead, it has pushed the market toward more sustainable alternative contract models. Take-or-pay contracts have found a workable middle ground: lifting heavy execution costs off the Treasury while providing targeted operating guarantees that have banks and private-sector players competing to finance these projects.

The full story- For decades, sovereign guarantees were the key that unlocked bank financing for major infrastructure projects in Egypt and the wider region. Investors and project financiers favor them because they shift default risk and demand volatility off their shoulders and onto the state budget. But in its latest May 2026 report (pdf), the OECD explicitly recommends that the government rein in that fiscal generosity — moving away from blanket sovereign guarantees toward project-specific guarantees based on a rigorous assessment of each project's risk profile.

These recommendations are shaping the government’s policy. The Finance Ministry plans to tighten its grip on contingent liabilities by lowering the ceiling on government guarantees to EGP 560 bn in FY2026/27, down from EGP 740 bn in the current fiscal year. The new cap is meant to "govern the guarantees system and limit it to necessary projects only," a government official previously told EnterpriseAM, in response to IMF warnings over the high risks posed by government-guaranteed debt and the sovereign pressures it creates.

Banks still play the central role, CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla said at a February 2026 sustainable finance conference. He explains that banks are no longer just traditional financial institutions, but “key partners in shaping financing solutions and innovating tools that support these kinds of long-term projects, particularly in green and climate finance.” Central banks, he adds, have an important role in “encouraging banks to finance these projects,” while reinforcing the financial stability that underpins trust between all parties. He had also previously emphasized the importance of public-private partnerships as indispensable tools for long-term infrastructure and development finance.

Protecting the budget vs. keeping projects bankable: Under the current model, the government issues sovereign guarantees for PPP projects where the state is the end-buyer of the service. The OECD warns that continuing to issue blanket guarantees means the government is giving up control over project outcomes while taking on the obligation to provide financing if things go wrong.

From a macro standpoint, that narrowing is necessary. The OECD says limiting the scope of guarantees would help "ease the fiscal pressure that contingent liabilities place on the state budget, creating fiscal space for more PPP projects." The shift also fits into a broader plan to rein in borrowing and reduce the state's crowding out of the private sector in the domestic debt market.

How do operators see the shift? For project finance teams, it means risk is being repriced. Developers are already testing that new reality in current infrastructure tenders. Tarek El Gammal, founder and chairman of Redcon Construction, says the rules have changed on the ground, particularly in water projects. “Redcon Construction is already entering seawater desalination plant projects,” he says. The old model was different: “Previously, the state would grant sovereign guarantees for projects — and it would build the plant.” Now, the structure has changed to ease the burden on the state, El Gammal says. “The state has now limited sovereign guarantees with the aim of reducing public spending. Companies build the plant, whose cost is estimated at around EGP 5 bn, and finance it as well, then deal with the government through take-or-pay contracts.”

Take-or-pay structure explained. Instead of guaranteeing the full capital cost of a project, the sovereign guarantee is now limited to the agreed monthly offtake payment. “The payment, for example, would be EGP 10 mn a month — that EGP 10 mn has a sovereign guarantee, plus any additional consumption,” El Gammal explains. The structure balances budget protection with enough security for financiers, he adds, noting that the new model has “made the private sector and banks compete to finance projects.”

This fits the wider market reset: The new guarantee model is landing as Egypt's contracting market is being rewired around three structural shifts: the slowdown in state-led megaprojects, the public spending cap, and the need to keep projects bankable without loading the Treasury with open-ended obligations. That squeeze has pushed large contractors to expand abroad to protect cash flows, while the state is redirecting its investment focus toward power and renewables — nearly doubling electricity and renewables investments to EGP 136.3 bn in FY2025/26 — with private-sector partners expected to play a growing role.

Direct awards also need to narrow: Despite Egypt's legislative reforms to the public contracting law and PPP framework, there is still room — and need — to improve competition to ensure better value for money. In a separate but complementary report on infrastructure governance, the OECD says that to fully leverage government agencies' purchasing power, it is important to strengthen open and competitive procurement processes wherever possible. Reducing the use of direct contract awards and reliance on exceptions in the public procurement law can help achieve better value, strengthen market competition, and increase transparency.

What's next? Egypt is entering a transition phase that will create a deeper sorting in the contracting and project finance market. The winning consortiums in upcoming tenders will not be those that rely on the state as an all-purpose guarantor shielding them from execution and default risk. They will be the ones with stronger financial and operational risk management — and the ability to structure projects through take-or-pay models or smarter partial guarantees that convince international and private financiers the project can stand on its own economics. The message is becoming clear: this is the real cost of building a more sustainable, performance-based economy.

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CALENDAR

JUNE

16-18 June (Tuesday-Thursday) AFA International Annual Fertilizer Conference & Exhibition, Nile Ritz-Carlton, Cairo.

16-18 June (Tuesday-Thursday) Africa Health ExCon 2026, Al Manara International Conference Center Egypt International Exhibition Center (EIEC)

23-25 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Big 5 Construct Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

23-25 June (Tuesday-Thursday): Watrex Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

30 June (Tuesday): June 30 Revolution.

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

19 August (Wednesday): Connected Banking Summit, Fairmont Nile City Hotel

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday) El Alamein International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport

10-12 September (Thursday-Saturday): Egyptian Entrepreneurship Sector Diagnostics Report Summit, El Gouna.

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

10-11 October (Saturday-Sunday): Egypt Women's Health Summit (EWHS), Cairo Marriott Hotel

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): IEX Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Food Africa, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

4Q 2026: Banque du Caire IPO

2027

16-18 January (Saturday-Monday): Agri Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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