Growing stablecoin use threatens monetary control in emerging markets

Central bankers are worried that the USD is staging a digital coup. The growing use of USD-linked stablecoins is accelerating dollarization in emerging markets — outpacing regulators and weakening central banks’ control over monetary policy — while also creating new channels for tax evasion and cybercrime, the Financial Times reports.

SOUND SMART- Stablecoins are crypto tokens pegged to fiat currencies like the USD. They are gaining ground as a low-cost, near-instant alternative to traditional cross-border transfers.

These assets are taking off in emerging markets: In several EMs, stablecoins are already grabbing a “significant share” of the transaction pie, the IMF’s Tobias Adrian said. People are using them to hedge against local inflation and currency depreciation and to bypass government restrictions on access to foreign currency.

By the numbers: Standard Chartered expects stablecoin EM holdings to jump to USD 1.22 tn by 2028 from USD 173 bn currently, with growth concentrated in financially stressed economies like Egypt, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Why regulators are worried

Evicting the local currency: Dollarization can limit central banks’ control over money supply and policy, making it vulnerable to US monetary shifts and posing “serious risks for financial integrity,” Bank for International Settlements chief Pablo Hernández de Cos said.

A very one-sided market: Around 98% of the USD 315 bn stablecoin market is USD-denominated, spurred in part by US policy moves integrating the sector into the regulated financial system.

Beyond policy issues, there’s a growing crime problem: Stablecoins open “new avenues for tax evasion”, Hernández de Cos said, citing estimates that they account for most illicit crypto transactions. The Financial Action Task Force has likewise warned that stablecoins were “attractive for criminal misuse” and increasingly used to launder proceeds from ransomware, phishing, and other cyber-enabled crimes.

The response plan

Regulators playing catch-up: The pace of global rule-making for stablecoins has slowed, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warning that regulators will soon have to “come to terms” with their growing use — particularly where they replace domestic currencies in everyday transactions.

But policy responses are emerging: Countries can counter dollarization risks by strengthening macroeconomic frameworks, said deputy head of the IMF Dan Katz. Brazil has already moved to regulate stablecoin providers under anti-money laundering rules and imposed a USD 100k cap on many foreign transfers.

The BIS is building alternatives: The bank is working with central banks and commercial lenders on potential alternatives to stablecoins, including tokenized bank deposits designed to offer similar speed and efficiency without ceding monetary control.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Hopes of easing tensions between the US and Iran, amid reports that the two sides are at the negotiation table this week, pushed stocks higher this morning. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi are both up over 1% in early trading. Over on Wall Street, markets are expected to open higher, with futures in the green.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 8.4 bn (22.3% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 23.9% YTD.

In the green: Ibnsina Pharma (+3.7%), Rameda (+2.2%), and Palm Hills Developments (+1.0%).

In the red: AMOC (-3.9%), Raya Holding (-2.3%), and Telecom Egypt (-2.3%).