A collective (pre-mature?) sigh of relief

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

No growth forecast downgrade from the World Bank

Good morning, friends. It has been a whirlwind 24 hours since the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The news triggered a relief rally across local, regional, and international markets, with the EGX jumping and the EGP strengthening against the greenback.

^^ We dive deeper into the main drivers behind the gains and analyze what the next few weeks could mean for us in the news well, below.

The question, of course, is whether the ceasefire holds, as we note in this morning’s Big Story Abroad, below. Israel played spoiler, stepping up its attack on Lebanon, and that appears to have some in Tehran wondering whether Hormuz really should be open.

**A QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM will be taking a long weekend break from your inboxes as we celebrate Shams El Nessim, but we will be back bright and early on Tuesday.

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Watch this space

MACRO — The World Bank has once again held its growth forecast for Egypt for FY 2025-2026 at 4.3% y-o-y, according to its latest regional economic update (pdf).

This comes after a series of war-triggered downward revisions to our growth forecast. Over the past few weeks, we saw S&P Global Ratings, BMI, and Oxford Economics lower their growth forecast for the current fiscal year. BMI remains the most optimistic, expecting the economy to grow at a 4.9% clip.

Why did the WB keep its forecast unchanged? The global lender said its projection was “driven by robust growth in the first half of the fiscal year, resilient private consumption, and growing private investment, offset by slower moderation of inflation due to the conflict.”

We’re doing better than the wider region: The US-Iran war dragged down the World Bank’s forecast for the region to 1.8% in 2026, down from the 4.2% forecasted in January, and a significant dip from 2025’s estimated growth of 4%. But the economic outlook for the region remains “clouded by uncertainty,” with the lender noting the degree of disagreement across projections made by different forecasters.

PRIVATIZATION — The EGX’s waiting room just got a bit more crowded with six state-owned firms temporarily listing yesterday, up from the initial list of five originally announced. In addition to El Nahda Industries, Egyptian Ferroalloys Company, El Nasr Glass, El Nasr Mining, and Alexandria Co. for Refractories, which a senior government official told us to expect earlier this week, the list now also includes the Egyptian Company for Pipes & Cement Products — often referred to as Siegwart — according to a bulletin from the bourse.

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Happening today

We all know that inflation rose in March, and today we will get to know by how much, with Capmas expected to release March inflation data in a few hours. This will give us our first real look into the inflationary impact regional volatility is having on Egypt. With fuel price hikes, a weaker EGP, and rising global energy and freight costs all feeding into the economy, the upcoming reading is expected to reflect a broad-based acceleration in price pressures.

February’s data already showed a pre-crisis increase, with annual urban inflation up 1.5 percentage points to 13.4% on the back of rising food and education costs. That reading caught the market off guard, signaling that price pressures were mounting even before the market uncertainty and supply chain disruptions that erupted in late February.

PSA-

WEATHER- The mercury is rising in Cairo today, with sunny skies, a high of 28°C, and a low of 15°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a fair bit cooler in Alexandria, with cloudy skies, a high of 22°C and a low of 14°C.

And over the weekend and through to Sham El Nessim, expect to see temperatures stay in the high twenties in the capital and in the low twenties for our on the Mediterranean.

The big story abroad

An Israeli attack on Beirut — killing hundreds — now threatens to unravel the two-week US-Iran ceasefire, leading Tehran’s lead negotiator to label any continued negotiations as “unreasonable” under these conditions. Washington and Tel Aviv insist that the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, with Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu saying strikes would continue.

This prompted Tehran to respond by halting the passage of two oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic aims to impose tolls — to be paid with cryptocurrency — on oil tankers passing through the waterway, an Iranian official told the Financial Times. Ship-tracking data by Bloomberg showed the strait remained largely blocked as of yesterday. More than 800 vessels remain stuck in the Gulf.

Oil jumped again: After the news of the ceasefire dragged oil prices down, fear that tensions could escalate again pushed prices up in early trading today. Brent crude rose 2.5% to USD 97.14 per barrel.

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: Tech giant Meta has debuted its first new model — Muse Spark — since CEO Mark Zuckerberg launched a multi-bn USD drive to bring on fresh AI talent. Pitched as an improved version of virtual assistant Meta AI, the new product claims to allow more personalized and visual responses and draws from content shared across Facebook, Instagram, and Threads.

And in the feud between Anthropic and the Pentagon, a Washington, DC, federal appeals court declined to obstruct the national security blacklisting of the AI ‌company. The move could block contractors who work with the Pentagon from using AI models by the startup. A separate appeals court had issued the opposite ruling in late March.

Looking up?

The ceasefire is already being felt in the markets, with the EGX30 up 4.1% by the end of trading yesterday, marking its biggest one day jump since 19 May 2024 and outperforming regional peers. The EGP also gained around 2.5% on the greenback by the times bank tellers shut up shop for the day, with National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr buying the USD for EGP 53.27 and selling for EGP 53.37, while CIB had a buy price of EGP 53.33 and sell price of EGP 53.43

Analysts expect the EGP to maintain its recovery momentum if the ceasefire holds and a potential broader agreement between Washington and Tehran materializes. The renewal of GCC deposits is cited as a critical pillar supporting FX reserves and long-term exchange rate stability.

Initial investor optimism also sparked a “strong return of foreign investment into debt instruments on the secondary market today, with inflows reaching approximately USD 800 mn today alone,” a source in the banking sector tells EnterpriseAM, adding that the momentum could carry into the primary market during Thursday’s session. Another banking source tells us that inflows yesterday pushed interbank transactions to breach the USD 1 bn mark.

Why it matters: The rush back to the secondary debt market and a welcome rally at the bourse seems — at least so far — to suggest that the long-term damage this war will have on the economy could be less (and shorter-lived) than originally feared.

The recent period of volatility saw regional capital play a stabilizing role, with our source noting that “inflows of Arab investments compensated for the gap left by the exit of hot money from investment funds and foreign investors,” which helped anchor the exchange rate and maintain USD liquidity, ultimately slowing the pace of the EGP's depreciation.

While over at the EGX, “the froth that burst today is one-third of what should have been the true correction,” Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena tells us, adding that lower energy prices could push the index back above 50k and put the 60k target back in play.

Businesses, consumers, and government will all get a nice shot in the arm if tankers start moving through Hormuz again. “We imported USD 21 bn of crude oil [...] This bill, if the war had continued, would have jumped to maybe USD 35 bn,” he said, warning that the increase would have strained the budget, balance of payments, and the EGP. The easing will feed directly into equities — provided the ceasefire holds.

Genena also signalled a move away from war-driven hedges toward recovery plays, telling us that “we are not bullish on commodities.” He explained that “our best exposures will be domestic cyclicals: e-payments, non-bank finance, and telecom.”

As for whether this marks a structural shift in risk, Genena is dismissive. “I’m not a very strong believer in new normals [...]” he said, pointing to a likely return of capital once macro stability is restored.

Private sector to gain ground in revised state ownership policy document

A new and more pro-private sector state ownership policy document will be released next month, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. The committee overseeing the revision of the policy is finalizing its amendments to reflect recent developments and to align with the recently released second edition of the National Narrative for Comprehensive Development, we’re told.

The state’s position in previously untargeted sectors will now be under the spotlight, with the new document looking to expand private-sector participation in certain areas of the economy which the current document gives the state a larger share of the market than private players.

The committee also thinks bigger is better when it comes to attracting higher prices for its assets. Companies earmarked for divestment will be merged with others in the same sector to create a more attractive asset base and financial standing. The depreciation of the EGP against the greenback has also led to the reassessment of what the government is hoping to raise from each company before transferring to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt.

An otherwise difficult economic situation across the region could work to attract investors and capital inflows, committee advisor Rania Yacoub tells EnterpriseAM. “Investors typically gravitate toward assets trading below their intrinsic value,” she explained, adding that “the state currently owns a number of assets that remain undervalued.”

Divestment via the EGX during this period would also help bring in liquidity to the market, she said. She pointed to the clear increase in investor appetite after reports emerged that the planned Banque du Caire offering was in its final stages of being put together, with the exact timing of the IPO to be determined by Banque Misr.

Kuwaiti deposits here to stay

The Central Bank of Egypt is moving to renew a USD 2 bn Kuwaiti deposit due this month, a high-level official in the banking sector tells EnterpriseAM, noting that there is a preliminary agreement already in place. The maturing deposit is expected to be renewed under the same existing terms and will remain in place “until an agreement is reached to convert them into direct equity in companies or sectors,” the source said.

“Regional events have stalled the completion of procedures to convert USD 4 bn in Kuwaiti deposits at the CBE into investments across various economic sectors,” our source explained.

Why it matters: With a big question mark over what hard currency inflows we can expect from the Suez Canal and expat remittances moving forward, alongside a hefty energy import bill, now is not the time for a sudden withdrawal of deposits by GCC creditors in the event of further regional escalation. Keeping deposits in place, in addition to concessional and bilateral financing secured by the country, creates a vital financial safety net.

REMEMBER- In a formal letter to the IMF, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla confirmed they have secured “strong assurances” that GCC states will not withdraw their USD 18.3 bn of deposits while the Extended Fund Facility is active. Saudi Arabia holds the bulk of these, with USD 10.3 bn in deposits at the CBE, including USD 5.3 bn maturing in October and the remainder classified as stable short-term deposits, our source tells us.

Egypt pays credibility tax on its energy hub ambitions

Egypt is currently executing an energy strategy that looks like a contradiction on paper — but importing record amounts of gas in part to build the groundwork for one day becoming a regional exporting hub, Oil Minister Karim Badawi said at an Amcham gathering attended by EnterpriseAM. While the headlines focus on the immediate goal of keeping blackouts at bay and energy supplies to industry at adequate levels, the country has also been working to prove its credibility as an export hub. The aim is to handle future flows from Cyprus and Israel for re-export as LNG, alongside a hoped-for increase in local production.

LNG imports are being used to meet domestic supply and keep the country’s export infrastructure active, albeit at its current limited levels. In contrast to energy squeezes of years passed, where domestic shortages led to the seizure of locally produced gas destined for export and a pause in arrears payments, the state is taking a different approach. “It was very important for us to ensure that we leverage those FSRUs to be able to make sure that from our production we have gas going out and to be able to fulfill our needs,” Badawi explained.

Why it matters: By allowing LNG cargoes to depart from Idku while importing from its four deployed floating regasification units with a combined 2.8 bcf/d capacity, the government is honoring existing contracts it has with international energy players in Egypt even when it comes at a financial loss. This is a long-term play to ensure that energy companies live up to their investment pledges to ramp up production. It’s about giving them confidence — not only that their arrears won’t be withheld again, but that they will still be able to tap into the more lucrative export market even when times get tough in Egypt.

Keeping exports running during the shock was “painful,” but necessary to maintain asset integrity and Egypt’s position in global markets, VP and Country Chair of Shell Egypt Dalia El Gabry said. The strategy hinges on keeping liquefaction facilities — such as Idku — active even under tight domestic supply.

“Importing and exporting — this would be the end game for Egypt, playing the role of a consolidator and managing supply to the global market,” El Gabry said, noting that “studies are put in place to look into the re-gasification option offshore.”

To increase production, the country is also looking to technologies like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. “What maybe we didn’t see before, we can see now,” Badawi said, framing technology as the lever to unlock previously inaccessible resources.

Flexible fiscal terms are also being deployed to encourage investment, with R-factor models and other arrangements allowing companies to “recover earlier on the investment” in frontier areas where infrastructure is limited, Badawi noted.

Axa Life Ins. Egypt taps new MD

Axa Life Ins. Egypt appointed Waleed Samy (LinkedIn) as managing director, following official approval from the Financial Regulatory Authority, according to a company statement (pdf). Samy is a long-time veteran of the Axa ecosystem, having served as the company's managing director of services and CEO of retail.

Two new fertilizer projects on the way

USD 740 mn worth of fertilizer projects coming our way

#1- Singapore-based Indorama will set up a USD 525 mn phosphate fertilizer plant in the Sokhna Industrial Zone, according to a statement. The project, which will see additional investments across future phases, will have an annual production capacity of 600k tons during its first phase. It will provide some 3k jobs during construction and operations and will allot 80% of its production for international markets.

ICYMI: The company aims to raise its investments in the country to USD 1 bn, Chemical and Fertilizers Export Council Chairman Khaled Abu Al Makarem told EnterpriseAM earlier this year.

#2- Local chemicals player Polyserve is building a USD 215 mn chemicals and fertilizer project in the Sokhna Industrial Zone, according to a statement. The facility will have an annual production capacity of 3.5 mn tons and provide 500 direct jobs.

Triumph Junheng to invest USD 250 mn in localized medical glass

China’s Triumph Junheng is looking to invest USD 250 mn to localize pharma borosilicate glass production in Egypt with the establishment of an integrated industrial project, according to a statement from the Egyptian Drug Authority. The project will be developed with support from the China-Africa Development Fund, with 60% of production destined for the local market and 40% earmarked for export.

Why this matters: While Egypt has made progress in localizing the production of many drugs, it remains reliant on vials, ampoules, and other packaging that uses borosilicate glass. For Egypt to establish itself as a strategic hub for pharma production in the Middle East and Africa and to get as much value added out of this as possible, it needs to localize the entire value chain — all the way from the active ingredients to the final packaging.

EDECS joins Medlog’s Tenth of Ramadan dry port buildout

MSC’s subsidiary Medlog and local construction firm EDECS signed an EPC contract for a new dry port construction package in Tenth of Ramadan City, according to a statement from EDECS. The 189k sqm project will be built under a design-and-build contract covering earthworks, paving, road marking, installation of essential utilities, and other critical infrastructure.

Move over inflation: Central banks have a new biggest fear

For the first time in years, the people managing the world's money are more worried about missiles than inflation. Some 70% of central banks — who collectively manage over USD 9.5 tn in reserves — now rank geopolitical tension as their top global risk, according to a Central Banking Publications survey of about 100 institutions picked up by Reuters.

That is a massive spike from the 35% who held that view in 2024, knocking US trade protectionism out of the top anxiety spot. Inflation and interest rates are still a primary five-year concern for just over half of reserve managers, but that figure has dropped from 76% last year.

Why it matters

The shifting geopolitical tectonic plates are shaking trust in US debt and the USD. Some 80% of reserve managers still view the greenback as the world's primary safe-haven currency, but its absolute dominance is increasingly being questioned. The USD index (DXY) shed over 12% against a basket of top currencies between January of last year and this year.

The appetite for US debt is also taking a major hit. Only a third of survey respondents expect US bonds to outperform those of other G7 economies and China. That is a big drop in confidence compared to 2024, when over 70% expected US Treasuries to lead the pack. The percentage of central banks that see the USD role directly impacting their reserve management decisions over the next five years has also jumped to 16%, up from just 3% last year.

What's next?

Gold is poised to catch the overflow: The clear beneficiary of this macro anxiety is gold. Nearly 75% of central banks currently hold the precious metal in their reserves, and almost 40% are actively considering increasing their exposure.

The regional ripple effects will be highly asymmetric. This shifting risk landscape was a core theme at the European Central Bank Watchers Conference, where policymakers highlighted how differently these shocks will land.

Europe's energy trap: Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn warned that Europe faces “asymmetric” exposure to Middle Eastern conflicts because of its structural reliance on imported energy. Rehn argued the bloc urgently needs targeted fiscal measures and common financing to bolster its own defense and capital markets.

China's buffers: China is relatively insulated from immediate energy shocks thanks to its massive strategic oil reserves, UBS chief China economist Tao Wang noted. Even if global oil spikes to USD 130 a barrel, it would only partially translate to domestic prices, though Wang warned that geopolitical risks globally have become “highly unpredictable.”

The Fed's credibility test: University of Wisconsin professor Menzie Chinn pointed out that the global economy is facing a “highly shocking” year. If the US Federal Reserve's credibility is eroded in this environment, it could fundamentally alter the USD’s international position and how foreign central banks manage their reserve holdings moving forward.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

After yesterday's rally, Asian markets are down in early trading this morning amid fears that tensions between the US and Iran will escalate again. Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.5% and South Korea’s Kospi is down 1.3%. Meanwhile, US stock futures are flat.

EGX30	48,594	+4.1% (YTD: +16.2%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 53.26	Sell 53.40
USD (CIB)	Buy 53.27	Sell 53.37
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	11,339	+2.3% (YTD: +8.1%)
ADX	9,869	+2.9% (YTD: -1.2%)
DFM	5,777	+6.9% (YTD: -4.5%)
S&P 500	6,783	+2.5% (YTD: -0.9%)
FTSE 100	10,609	+2.5% (YTD: +6.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,913	+5.0% (YTD: +2.1%)
Brent crude	USD 96.70	-11.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.74	+0.4%
Gold	USD 4,713	-0.2%
BTC	USD 70,996	-1.3% (YTD: -19.0%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,028	+0.3% (YTD: +3.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.24	-0.1% (YTD: -1.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	21.04	-18.4% (YTD: +40.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 4.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 11.8 bn (77.2% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 16.2% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Construction (+8.7%), TMG Holding (+8.1%), and Edita (+7.7%).

In the red: Valmore Holding -EGP (-5.5%), Egypt Aluminum (-5.0%), and Qalaa Holdings (-4.4%).

My Morning Routine: Nancy Madbouly, co-founder and CTO at Nanovate

Nancy Madbouly, co-founder and CTO at Nanovate: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Nanovate co-founder and CTO Nancy Madbouly (LinkedIn). Edited excerpts from our conversation:

I’m a new mom — which is a full-time job on its own. Before that, I spent the past eight years working across different areas in tech, from Web3 and blockchain to NFTs, DeFi, augmented reality, and now AI.

I’ve always worked in tech because this is something that I really like and love. I started creating content to educate people about technologies that weren’t widely popular in the Middle East. When I first started talking about crypto, most people thought it was a scam. This is when I started showing people where I’m coming from — that it’s actually not a scam and how they can use these new technologies to their advantage.

I then started shifting a bit into AI, because people didn’t know anything about it at the time. They only knew very little about blockchain systems. It was during the NFT wave — a space I was working in at the time.

I see myself as an entrepreneur, and I’ve always been one. I worked on a lot of projects, but I knew I eventually wanted to build something of my own. The timing didn’t feel right at the time. When I finally decided to go for it, I pitched the idea to my husband, who was incredibly supportive — he’s now my co-founder — and we took it from there.

At Nanovate, I wear two hats as co-founder and CTO. I lead the vision for tech. When it comes to anything from a tech aspect, I do it and plan it for my team of developers. We do the ideation of everything together, implement it, and create new technologies based on what we think is going to be right for the market.

The name Nanovate actually comes from combining Nancy and innovate. It was just a joke back then, but we really liked the name, so we stuck to it. Our vision is always to make everything easier for businesses so that they don’t have to code. Right now, we have a platform where you can create your own voice or chat agents without needing to code and integrate them with your socials or any phone number.

The most interesting trend in the industry right now is multi-agents like OpenClaw or anything following this framework — this is what’s going to build the next-gen AI models. The problem is that when you look at the market in Egypt, there is a lot of hype but very few actual builders. Most are building on n8n and don't actually own the actual tech behind it. If someone wants to invest in their company and do due diligence, they will find they don't have their own code.

I would love to see the Middle East in a place where we are actually building code and not just being consumers and users. This is why at Nanovate, we have everything built from scratch, code-wise. It’s our copyright — no one can take that from us. No one can close the platform because it’s ours.

My mornings look very different now than they used to. Before having my baby, I’d start my day with the gym, grab a coffee, and then head to the office. When I got pregnant, I kept the same routine until I gave birth — even though I couldn't drink coffee and was tired all the time. After giving birth, I started juggling everything. I usually wake up after very little sleep, feed my baby, get her ready, and head to the office with her. When she naps, I get a couple of hours of focused work in. Then, we go home and eat. If I have events or things to take care of, my husband or mom takes care of her. As new parents, we just figure things out as we go. We also have a dog, so it’s a lot.

I don’t really believe in work-life balance. My husband calls it “work-life harmony” instead of work-life balance, and I’m starting to agree with him, to be honest — even though I didn’t at first. It’s more about integrating everything rather than separating it — especially at this stage in life.

When I do get time to unwind, I usually just sit in bed and watch Netflix. I love serial killer documentaries and anything scientific. I was recently obsessed with the OceanGate submersible story, and I’m also really into physics, which ties back to my interest in AI.

One piece of advice that stuck with me is that “this too shall pass.” I went through a very difficult personal experience before having my daughter, where my son died at a very young age, and that quote helped me through it. It reminds you that both the hard times and the good times are temporary, so you just have to stay present and keep going.

CALENDAR

2026

APRIL

9 April (Thursday): Capmas expected to release inflation figures for March

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE

15 June (Monday): Seventh review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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