Good morning, friends. The shift in mood is stark this morning after the overnight announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.

Here’s what we know: Washington will “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump said. Tehran responded by saying it would halt its attacks across the Gulf if the US and Israel stop their attacks. The Islamic Republic also said it would open the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to transit the waterway in coordination with Iranian armed forces. This came hours before Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or else a “whole civilization will die.”

What happens next? The two sides will meet on Friday to “further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. Trump said Iran presented a 10-point proposal, which he called a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

The question is whether the ceasefire will hold: A US official told the New York Times that the US halted strikes against Iran in accordance with the agreement shortly after the announcement. Still, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait reported a fresh round of missile attacks.

Market reax: Oil dipped below USD 100 per barrel following the news, with Brent dropping as much as 16% to below USD 92 earlier today.

Asian markets cheered the ceasefire, with Japan’s Nikkei climbing over 5% and South Korea’s Kospi rising almost 6% in early trading. Western futures markets — in the US and Europe — also posted gains across the board.

What this means for us here at home: If the ceasefire holds, look for the EGP to gradually strengthen against the greenback after a wave of war-triggered hot money outflows dragged the currency to record lows. Improving sentiment should buoy the EGX, which has also taken it on the chin the past few weeks, and reset the clock on hotly anticipated IPOs, including that of Banque du Caire.

A reward for staying the course? Investor sentiment may be slow to return — much of it is out of our hands — but the feeling among portfolio managers we speak with is that the Madbouly government deserves an “A” for its handling of the fallout from the crisis. The Cabinet and the central bank showed significant policy maturity. The big one: Officials kept their fingers off the scale and allowed the EGP to serve as shock absorber. That allowed investors to get their money out without drama — something they’ll remember, as they did in the wake of the flight to safety that accompanied Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs last year. (Was that really just… last year?)

Still very much in question: The 9pm curfew on commercial activity and other measures taken to counter the jump in fuel import bills — when (and how fast) those get scrapped is a direct function of how quickly Gulf exporters including Kuwait (oil) and Qatar (natural gas) bring production and export sales back online. Pundits expect a period of elevated prices even if Qatar, for example, is able to return to pre-war production levels in weeks, not months or years. Its key export facility took significant damage from Iranian strikes earlier in the conflict.

So, yeah: You may now issue a (tentative) sigh of relief. Maybe don’t pivot back to your pre-war posture just yet — it’s a two-week ceasefire — but… just let out that breath and be extra thankful we have a holiday long weekend coming up.

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Watch this space

ENERGY — Eni thinks it may have just discovered a reservoir in the Eastern Mediterranean believed to contain some 2 tcf of gas, along with 130 mn barrels of associated condensates, according to preliminary estimates, the Italian energy giant said in a statement. The discovery at the Denise W 1 exploration well in the Temsah concession “reinforces Eni’s commitment to supporting Egypt’s national goals of boosting reserves and increasing gas production," the company said.

Why it matters: The find is no Zohr for sure, but 2 tcf of gas is a sizable discovery that should have a tangible impact on our energy import bill. Importantly, it also looks like gas could start flowing from the well soon, as it “lies 70 km offshore in 95 m of water depth and less than 10 km from existing infrastructure, enabling substantial synergies for a fast-track development,” according to Eni.

The players: Eni holds a 50% operating interest in the Denise development lease, with BP holding the remaining 50%. The asset is managed through Petrobel, the joint venture between Eni and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation.

DEVELOPMENT FINANCE — Could Egypt be in store for a big chunk of change from the Afreximbank? The African Export-Import Bank approved a USD 10 bn facility to shield African and Caribbean economies from the economic fallout of the ongoing war in the region, according to a statement from the lender.

Although the specific countries to be targeted by the Gulf Crisis Response Program were not named, we think there’s a good chance Egypt will be on the list. The funds will partly go toward securing essential imports of LNG, which only a few countries on the continent, alongside Egypt, have the infrastructure to import. Another reason we suspect was on the list is the short-term relief earmarked for countries whose “tourism and aviation industries have been adversely impacted by the crisis,” which seems more relevant to us than any other African nation. The bank had not responded to our request for comment by the time of publication.

PRIVATIZATION — Five state-owned firms will temporarily list their shares on the EGX today, according to an invite sent to EnterpriseAM.

What to expect? While the invite was light on details, a senior government official toldEnterpriseAM earlier this week that the listings set the stage for the eventual offering of a 30-40% stake in El Nahda Industries and up to 20% in Egyptian Ferroalloys Company, alongside stakes in El Nasr Glass, El Nasr Mining, and Alexandria Co. for Refractories.

SOUND SMART- A temporary listing gives each of the companies a six-month window to get their paperwork and finances in order before any equity changes hands or trading begins.

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Happening tomorrow

We will soon get our first real look into the inflationary impact that the regional volatility is having on Egypt, with Capmas set to release March inflation data tomorrow. February’s data already showed a pre-crisis increase, with annual urban inflation up 1.5 percentage points to 13.4% on the back of rising food and education costs. That reading caught the market off guard, signaling that price pressures were mounting even before the market uncertainty and supply chain disruptions that erupted in late February.

Analysts are bracing for a spike, with Beltone’s Ahmed Hafez previously telling us that he expects annual headline inflation to hit a nine-month high of 15% as the full weight of fuel price hikes and the EGP’s slide against the greenback filter through the economy.

PSA-

Cairo International Airport is finally saying farewell to departure and landing cards for Egyptian travellers, with the Civil Aviation Ministry pencilling in 11 April as the end date in a statement. The announcement follows an earlier 1 February deadline announced by Civil Aviation Minister Sameh Elhefny that the paper cards would be dumped in favor of digital entry-and-exit tracking.

WEATHER- The sun is out in Cairo today, with a high of 26°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s several degrees cooler in Alexandria, but nevertheless sunny, with a high of 22°C and a low of 13°C.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how shipping lines flirting with ethanol in pivot away from China to appease Trump could be bad news for our green bunkering ambitions.