🏭 The upheaval in our region’s economy — brought on by the ongoing Iran war — stands to shake up many local sectors. One enduring Egyptian industry that must reckon with the economic fallout of the conflict, as well as a changing competitive landscape throughout the region, is garment manufacturing. EnterpriseAM sat down with Egyptian Cotton Association Chairman Wael Olama (LinkedIn) to peel back the layers of the ongoing changes.

EnterpriseAM: How resilient is Egypt’s garments sector and its infrastructure amid the prevailing regional and global volatility?

Wael Olama: The primary pressure is inflation. As prices climb, consumer purchasing power retreats. We are seeing a shift in household priorities. When income is stretched, spending gravitates toward essentials. Clothing is a discretionary expense and is cut during crises.

The second blow is operational. The recent mandate of a 9pm closing time for shops has disrupted the traditional Egyptian buying pattern. Our retail culture is nocturnal by nature, with peak footfall occurring late at night and shops staying open until 1am. This has shortened our most productive hours, leading to a measurable decline in purchase rates.

On the export front, the sentiment is decidedly more bullish. We are seeing a structural shift in global supply chains that is working in Egypt’s favor, driven primarily by rising costs in our traditional competitor markets, namely Turkey and China.

Turkey, a dominant garment exporter, is becoming increasingly expensive due to surging labor and energy costs. We are seeing a significant trend of Turkish manufacturers relocating their operations to Egypt to maintain price competitiveness, bringing industrial expertise and established businesses.

China is pivoting toward high-value-added sectors — like automotive, electronics, and mobile technology — bringing up their labor costs. This shift is pricing them out of the basic garment export market. Consequently, global buyers and manufacturers are looking for the next viable hub, and Egypt is increasingly becoming the preferred destination for that displaced production.

This competitive edge is further sharpened by instability in Bangladesh, a favorable US tariff status, and the Red Sea shipping crisis, which has turned Egypt’s geographic proximity to Europe into a strategic necessity for brands fleeing the high costs and lengthy delays of Far East logistics.

It must be noted that the ongoing regional war will inevitably cause incoming investments to slow down, but the wave is there. Egypt’s goal of raising textile and garment exports to USD 12 bn by 2031 remains achievable in terms of capacity and financing, provided that factories continue coming into Egypt.

E: What steps should the government take to help the sector reach this export target and beyond?

WO: Reaching our export potential depends on two pillars: transparency and efficiency. First, the export incentive program must move beyond being a theoretical framework on paper. For manufacturers to accurately factor incentives into their costing, they need a system that is both clear and liquid. Second, the state must prioritize streamlining bureaucratic hurdles, specifically by fast-tracking factory licensing and establishment procedures to keep pace with the current influx of international demand.

E: How would you characterize Egypt’s competitive advantage in the sector?

WO: Egypt’s competitive edge is built on three strategic pillars. Foremost is our extensive network of preferential trade agreements, which grant Egyptian garments dutyfree access to the world’s highest-spending markets. This regulatory advantage is bolstered by a highly competitive labor cost structure and a track record of operational stability. In a global market currently defined by volatility, this combination of cost efficiency and reliability is exactly what provides international buyers with the long-term certainty they require.

E: What markets should Egypt focus on to achieve these export goals?

WO: To scale our exports, we must adopt a dual-track strategy. Traditionally, Egypt has focused on “structured retail,” supplying global giants like Zara, H&M, and Walmart. These brands place specific orders, and Egyptian manufacturers produce to those exact specifications. This is a well-established channel for Egypt and will remain important. But the real untapped market lies in the “unstructured retail” markets across Africa and some parts of Asia.

These markets are driven by wholesalers and traders rather than large brands. Instead of fulfilling pre-defined orders, manufacturers develop their own product lines, and buyers select what they want directly. Turkey and China were market leaders banking on affordable sourcing, but as those hubs become increasingly cost-prohibitive, a significant supply gap has emerged. By positioning ourselves as the new source alternative, we can capture a massive share of the trade.

E: How are the current exchange rate fluctuations affecting exporters’ pricing strategy?

WO: There is a common misconception that EGP volatility is an inherent boon for the export sector. While a stronger USD theoretically boosts competitiveness, the reality is more nuanced: domestic inflationary pressures — specifically in labor and logistics costs — quickly catch up, neutralizing the exchange rate advantage. While a flexible, market-driven rate is an understandable necessity, currency stability is far more valuable for long-term pricing strategies than a fluctuating, devalued EGP. Ultimately, when your operational costs are climbing in tandem with the exchange rate, it is far from a windfall.

E: Besides everything we’ve already discussed, what are the biggest challenges facing the sector now?

WO: The primary bottleneck remains access to finance. Local banks have historically been conservative toward the textile sector, failing to keep pace with its current growth potential. We need the banking sector to shift from a negative outlook to a more cooperative, sector-specific focus that prioritizes high-growth exporters.

Beyond financing, while worker training is often a factory-level responsibility, a true leap in productivity requires a centralized state strategy. We need only look at Bangladesh — which has a dedicated Textiles Ministry — to see the impact of total institutional alignment. If we view this industry as a strategic priority, that commitment must be reflected in specialized vocational schools, training units, and a unified policy focus.

E: Local exports got a two-year exemption from the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). While the carbon tax will initially target energy-intensive manufacturers, it’s also been considered an upcoming threat to garments. Will this affect Egypt’s export ambitions?

WO: CBAM is a fast-approaching regulatory reality. While the garment sector may not face immediate penalties today, we are in a critical three-year transition window. Currently, a sustainable setup serves as a competitive advantage, but within the next 24-36 months, it will become mandatory.

Exporters must move beyond greenwashing and implement verifiable compliance measures — like advanced water treatment, energy reduction, and the adoption of the Better Cotton Initiative (BCI). Even our most prestigious export, cotton, is under the microscope. I can confirm that global brands are already signaling that without BCI certification and a clear sustainability roadmap, even premium Egyptian cotton will eventually be locked out of the European market.

E: Will the recent increases in local energy costs affect the margins of garment companies?

WO: The recent fuel hikes present a nuanced challenge for the sector. While garment manufacturing itself is not energy-intensive, the logistical overhead of transporting a labor-intensive workforce is a major pressure point. We are seeing a 30-35% surge in worker transport costs — an expense typically borne by the employer — which immediately compresses margins.

The upstream effects on energy-intensive segments like spinning, weaving, and dyeing will eventually impact garments’ final cost structure. For exporters, however, this is less a structural threat and more a global reality — as energy costs rise for our international competitors, the playing field remains relatively level. The real squeeze will be felt by local market manufacturers who lack the natural hedge of hard-currency revenues to absorb these rising operational costs.