IMF warns Middle East conflict could add 40 bps to global inflation, and some central banks are likely to pause monetary easing

The IMF is sounding the alarm on a potential oil-led inflation spike, with the Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warning on Monday that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices throughout the year would result in a 40 bps rise in global inflation, Reuters reports. “We are seeing resilience tested again by the new conflict in the Middle East,” Georgieva said, urging policymakers to “think of the unthinkable and prepare for it.”

Oxford Economics also sees global inflation rising by 0.3-0.4% in 4Q 2026, accompanied by a 0.1 percentage point dip in global growth. While energy price trajectories remain volatile, Oxford Economics anticipates that Brent crude will average USD 79 / bbl in 2Q 2026 — a USD 15 upward revision from February estimates — before potentially retreating as supply conditions normalize, according to a report seen by EnterpriseAM.

The most exposed regions: The UK and the Eurozone, due to their exposure to gas prices. The agency sees rising energy prices pushing UK inflation up by 0.5 percentage points in 4Q compared to previous forecasts.

What’s the prognosis on rate cuts? The Bank of England will likely avoid cutting interest rates at its March meeting — or beyond if energy prices remain elevated for long — though rate cuts could resume in April or June if energy prices retreat quickly. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% throughout the year. The ECB might raise rates by 25-50 bps if the energy shock persists.

As for the US Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics’ forecasts remain unchanged, pointing toward potential interest rate cuts of 25 bps in June and September, given the energy shock is less likely to impact inflation.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s another morning with Asia-Pacific markets opening in the green as oil prices dipped further on hopes that the International Energy Agency will release its largest-ever stock to keep prices under control. The Kopsi is leading gains, up 3.4%, with the Nikkei trailing behind.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.9% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 6.6 bn (2.4% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 14.2% YTD.

In the green: ADIB (+6.6%), Raya Holding (+6.2%), and CIB (+5.3%).

In the red: AMOC (-8.0%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-5.0%), and Valmore Holding -EGP (-3.2%).