Could we see Egyptian Countryside transform into an integrated agro-industrial hub?

Monday, 29 Dec 2025

Could we see Egyptian Countryside transform into an integrated agro-industrial hub?

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Today at a glance

THE BIG STORY THIS MORNING

Is Egyptian Countryside’s massive EGP 25 bn power grid upgrade a signal of something even bigger?

CONTRARIAN VIEW

Extending trading hours won’t give the EGX a boost in 2026.

Logistics

We established foothold in Ethiopia’s trade lifeline through Djibouti port pacts.

What We're Tracking Today

Demand up, yields down for our first local debt issuance after Thursday’s rate cut.

Moves

Tarek Tantawy to head Al Futtaim’s unified Egypt operations.

YEAR IN REVIEW

2025 marked the end of Egypt’s tourism recovery and the start of its buildout.

PLANET FINANCE

Passive funds surge as narrow markets punish active managers.

BLACKBOARD

EGX education stocks rally in 2025 as the five listed companies deliver strong gains.

What We're Tracking Today

Demand up, yields down for our first local debt issuance after Thursday’s rate cut

Good morning, wonderful people. We hope at least a handful of you out there are enjoying a quiet week as we race toward New Year’s Eve. We have for you this morning a packed issue — and some good news on investor sentiment with which to lead off:

Our first local debt issuance after Thursday’s rate cut met with strong appetite, with the three- and nine-month EGP-denominated treasury bill issuance almost 4x oversubscribed, receiving EGP 220 bn worth of bids for the CBE’s planned EGP 60 bn, according to central bank data. Average yield fell to 24.99-25.46%, down from the 25.51-25.70% seen during last week’s auction.

Yields are down to multi-year lows: The average yield on the bills fell to lows not seen since mid-2023.

The takeaway is clear: The post-cut repricing is already feeding through to primary auctions, with investors moving quickly to re-anchor expectations along the short end of the curve. The auction was a clear signal of market confidence after the Central Bank of Egypt cut interest rates for the fifth time this year. Investors are moving quickly to lock in yield in anticipation of the CBE continuing its rate-cutting cycle next year as inflation remains on a downward trajectory.

It also gives us an idea of how today’s EGP 5 bn three-year local sovereign sukuk issuance could play out, the fifth tranche under a wider EGP 200 bn program.

ALSO HAPPENING TODAY- The central bank will auction off USD 800 mn worth of one-year USD-denominated treasury bills today, marking the sixth such issuance of the year, according to CBE data. The treasuries will likely refinance USD 840 mn of t-bills due to mature tomorrow.

AND- For those following the 2025 AFCON: The Pharaohs face Angola at 6pm at the Grand Stade d’Agadir. While Egypt already secured its spot in the round of 16, Angola needs the victory to keep its Africa Cup of Nations hopes alive. The Pharaohs arrive unbeaten and with history on their side — having won both prior AFCON meetings.

Smart Policy

Are we about to get a single, accurate picture of Egypt’s trade data? Policymakers are laying the groundwork to give investors and the world at large a single, unified set of import and export figures, according to a cabinet statement.

The move could put an end to the days when it was near-impossible to reconcile the differences in data published by a range of state entities. For years, anyone trying to model the economy has been forced to navigate a data schism: State statistics agency Capmas typically reports data based on physical flows (when goods physically cross a border), while the Central Bank of Egypt reports based on cashflow (when payments enter the banking system).

The resulting discrepancies, which can reach bns of USD, have created serious confusion for asset managers, lenders, and international institutions like the IMF. This fragmentation often made it difficult to accurately assess Egypt’s foreign currency requirements or its real-time trade balance. By moving to a unified database, cabinet will provide pundits and operators alike with a much clearer picture on where we stand at any given moment.

Market watch

Egypt’s first SPAC jumps on debut: Catalyst Partners Middle East (CPME) — Egypt’s first blank check company or SPAC — closed up 20% to EGP 12 per share on its first day of trading on the EGX. Some 5 mn shares changed hands during the course of the day. This is three months after the company completed its acquisition of Qardy and Catalyst Partners through share swaps.

Dive deeper: Check out our conversation with the Catalyst Partners Chairman Maged Shawky.

Watch this space

Gafi, the state’s investment promotion agency and regulator, is looking for private-sector investors interested in 12 operational or semi-operational industrial projects, according to data seen by EnterpriseAM. The opportunity book includes food processing, textiles, chemicals, and heavy industries and offers various investment structures, including management leases, strategic partnerships, or full acquisitions.

The list: The portfolio includes three food units (including Fine Farm in Obour and a vegetable oil plant in Beni Suef), four textile factories (across Alexandria, Menofia, and Sharqia), two chemical plants (including one of Cairo Oils and Soap’s entities), and heavy industry giants like El Nasr Steel Pipes’ plant.

Why would investors be interested? For some potential operators, brownfield investments offer faster time-to-market — the time and cost to rehabilitate existing infrastructure may be lower than for a greenfield. Infrastructure is also more likely to be in place and already connected to utilities, sidestepping long wait times.

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Data point

USD 7.2 bn — that’s the amount Egyptian household debt had risen by the end of September since the float of the EGP, up nearly 35%, according to data from the Institute of International Finance cited by Asharq Business. Household debt stood at USD 28.2 bn at the end of the month, according to the count.

Standard economic theory says high interest rates cool demand. But in Egypt, the opposite is happening, with high inflation forcing consumers to borrow just to stand still.

PSA-

Looking to sort out some things at the bank this week? Make sure to get there before Thursday. Banks in Egypt will be taking Thursday off for New Year’s Day, the central bank said in a circular.

** We’re off on Thursday, too, and will be back in your inboxes on Sunday, 3 January.

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in the capital, with a high of 19°C and a low of 12°C, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

With a holiday-shortened business week yet to begin in the west, the global business press is once again going long on geopolitics, offering deep dives into inconclusive talks yesterday between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump called the talks to end the war in Ukraine “excellent” and said they had made “a lot of progress.” Zelensky was less enthusiastic.

We’ll see as the day wears on whether the Santa rally in equities continues… Asian markets opened mixed this morning.

…but commodities are doing well: Silver rallied to a record high north of USD 80 per ounce, gold edged higher, and Brent crude poked above USD 61. You can thank geopolitical tensions, a weaker USD, and Beijing making all the right noises about supporting domestic growth in 2026.

With news sparse, there’s lots of stocktaking about 2025 — and looking ahead to 2026 and beyond — if you’re in the mood:

With chants of “bubble” rising, the guy who engineered the Big Short is now shorting Nvidia and Palantir at the same time as top AI startups have amassed a USD 150 bn war chest;
Politico has a deep look at who’s up and who’s down in the 2028 US presidential race;
The New York Times’ Roger Cohen thinks 2026 could be a turning point for peace in our region.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look at how education stocks listed on the EGX fared over the past year.

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debt watch What We're Tracking Today

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Celebrate when it feels right: Pick your night. Book your plans.

Discover the full December & NYE calendar here. Welcome the New Year at Somabay.

THE BIG STORY THIS MORNING

Is Egyptian Countryside’s massive EGP 25 bn power grid upgrade a signal of something even bigger?

Egyptian Countryside DevelopmentCo. is launching an EGP 25 bn project to connect the West Minya plain to the national electricity grid, the state-owned company said in a statement. The price tag covers the estimated cost of high-voltage stations and feeder lines.

Why it matters: We’re reading this part of a bid to transform the more than 1 mn feddan area from a land reclamation zone into an integrated agro-industrial hub.

SOUND SMART- The key here is that the project will deliver 500 MVA of capacity when fully built-out. MVA is a measurement for how much electricity the grid can deliver. Up to 50 MVA is sufficient for a large industrial facility — a small city would be 100-200 MVA. The 500 MVA upgrade here is enough to deliver power to processing plants, cold-storage facilities, packaging lines, and more. (Apologies to all of our engineer friends out there.)

The first of the investment’s two phases will see 100 MVA delivered to Southwest Minya and the surrounding area. The grid upgrade is part of a wider program that will see the company build-out roads, the telecom network, and renewable energy infrastructure.

If we’re reading this correctly, the investment in electricity infrastructure signals a step-change in Egyptian Countryside’s ambitions. For more than a decade, it’s been positioned as a 1.5 mn feddan land-reclamation project that would enhance food security at home while also giving our agricultural exports a boost.

By delivering industrial-scale power, the company could ultimately set itself up as a master-developer of an integrated agrifoods zone — and attract interest from private-sector operators interested in exporting agrifoods rather than produce. Absent real energy infrastructure, operators would be at the mercy of bespoke diesel and solar installations. That’s a non-starter for most.

What the future could look like: Think exports not of raw potatoes, but of much higher-margin flash-frozen french fries. Potatoes are a lower-value, lower-margin commodity often blocked from the European Union due to concerns over brown rot. Fries? They’re more valuable, higher margin and, in processed form, enjoy easier access to global markets.

Better still: Potatoes have a six-month export window to Europe. French fries? We can sell them there year-round. The investment in the electricity grid is what will make it possible for private-sector actors to capture the opportunity — it’s really difficult to imagine a bespoke solar / diesel power setup reliably powering the individual quick freezing lines necessary for energy-intensive flash freezing.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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agriculture food infrastructure THE BIG STORY THIS MORNING

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CONTRARIAN VIEW

Extending trading hours won’t give the Egyptian Stock Exchange a boost in 2026

We need to stop pretending that performative actions equate to good policy. No, extending trading hours won’t increase trading volumes on the EGX — even if it will make us feel like we’re “doing something” and gives us the chance to pat ourselves on the back.

How can we say that with such strong conviction? Two things: empirical research and common sense.

Research consistently shows that volume isn’t a “liquid” that expands to fill a larger container; it’s more like a “crowd” that needs a specific time and place to gather. When you increase hours, you don’t necessarily create new trades — you just “thin out” the existing ones.

Case in point: When the London Stock Exchange extended the trading hours of its International Order Book (LSE IOB) by one hour in September 2018, average trading volume went down compared to the FTSE100, volatility went up, and the bid-ask spread widened.

Other research fromJapan andHong Kong shows that extending hours rarely creates a new “pool” of investors. Instead, it leads to the trading volume being cannibalized. Market quality also drops and, similar to the findings of the LSE experiment, bid-ask spreads widened and the cost of trading went up.

…and what do you think happens to price discovery? It also suffers, of course. When hours are stretched thin, the market becomes noisier and more susceptible to price swings based on relatively small trades.

Efficient prices reflect the consensus of a diverse group of buyers and sellers. This “consensus” isn’t buoyed by extending trading hours. A wider trading window means that trades that would have been recorded during regular hours are simply moved to the extended period. The total volume can even dip slightly because of the lack of a critical mass of traders.

Heck, this even shows that reducing trading hours could be the way to go. Shortening trading hours has been shown to narrow spreads by forcing all participants to interact within the same narrow window.

Our favorite finance columnist, Matt Levine, who writes Money Stuff for Bloomberg, goes to the extreme: He only half-jokingly proposed a 15- to 30-minute trading day, suggesting that hyper-concentrating all buyers and sellers into a single intense window would create the most efficient price discovery and highest liquidity density possible.

But, come on Enterprise, why are you so bothered by this? To be honest, this isn’t a big deal — we admit it. And it’s not even a major policy change. It bugs us only because actions like these mask the real issues that are hindering the growth potential of the Egyptian stock market.

Extending trading hours won’t help the EGX, and neither is trying to get more individuals “coded” and day-trading on apps while we’re at it.

Only three things will improve the quality and volumes on the EGX:

Continuing to ensure that international investors can enter the market and exit their positions without stringent capital controls — which is already happening;
Higher-quality paper with meaningful stakes in free-float — we need more Banque du Caire’s on the EGX, and we need them to list stakes substantially larger than the 10-20% that seem popular right now;
Government pensions, insurance, and other slush funds must become active participants in the market.

Corporate pension funds becoming a “thing” (think RRSPs in Canada or 401ks in the US) would help, too. But really: Make sure foreign institutions can get in and out. Get more, higher-quality names into the market with bigger free floats. And force state institutions to start investing in equities. That’s it.

__________

Contrarian View is an occasional column of EnterpriseAM wherein we (or a member of our community) stake out a claim. Disagree? Drop us a note. Have something you want to get off your chest? Drop us a line at egypt@enterpriseam.com.

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CONTRARIAN VIEW EGX

Logistics

Egypt establishes foothold in Ethiopia’s trade lifeline through Djibouti port pacts

Egypt has secured a strategic foothold in Djibouti’s maritime infrastructure, with state-owned and private firms signing a series of agreements to develop a new multi-purpose terminal, a regional logistics hub, as well as a solar power plant in the East African nation. The agreements place the Holding Company for Maritime and Land Transport (HCMLT) and Elsewedy Electric at the center of Djibouti’s logistics push.

Here is a quick rundown of what was signed:

State-owned HCMLT signed a terms of agreement to develop and operate a multipurpose terminal in collaboration with Djibouti’s state-owned Green Horn Investment Holding;
Elsewedy Electric and HCMLT agreed to co-develop and launch a regional logistics center inside Khor Ambado Freezone, which falls under the China-backed Djibouti International Freetrade Zone (DIFTZ);
Elsewedy Electric also signed a terms of agreement to build a solar power plant in Doraleh Port.

Why it matters

The agreements give us a permanent foothold in the main sea lanes that landlocked Ethiopia uses for trade and come just days after Ethiopia’s ambitions of gaining access to the sea got a boost from Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, where Ethiopia has the kernel of an agreement that could give it a port. The Addis-Djibouti Corridor is responsible for 95% of Ethiopia’s trade.

PLUS- These moves may be about more than just commercial logistics. Reports from The National and regional observers suggest the infrastructure upgrades, which may also include assets at Eritrea’s Assab port, feature berths specifically designed for Egyptian naval vessels, including submarines and helicopter carriers from the Southern Fleet. That would give the Egyptian Armed Forces a permanent resupply point at the Bab El Mandeb Strait.

The China factor: China’s infrastructure investments in East Africa are the main reason why Djibouti is Ethiopia’s main trade gateway. The USD 4 bn Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway is the crown jewel of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa, connecting Ethiopia’s industrial heartland directly to the Doraleh Port through a 750km line.

BACKGROUND: Egypt first announced the package of agreements in April. A statement from Ittihadiya said we were also looking to work on the RN18 road corridor linking to Doraleh port.

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Djibouti Ethiopia logistics

Moves

Tarek Tantawy to head Al Futtaim’s unified Egypt operations

Palm Hills Developments co-CEO Tarek Tantawy (LinkedIn) is stepping down to take on a newly created role as group CEO of Al Futtaim in Egypt, effective mid-January, he confirmed to EnterpriseAM. The move marks a strategic shift for the Emirati conglomerate, which has historically managed its Egyptian business units — spanning automotive, retail, and real estate — largely as independent verticals.

Al Futtaim may be signaling that Egypt is no longer a collection of branch offices, but a unified theater of operations. Tantawy brings experience across industries ranging from infrastructure (Telecom Egypt) and investment banking (CI Capital) to real estate (Palm Hills). He’s got the wide skillset necessary to operate across verticals just as Egypt is heading into what is more and more looking like a multi-year growth cycle.

Palm Hills shareholders will be watching closely to see whether Chairman Yassin Mansour and the board appoint a new co-CEO alongside Hazem Badran, a former CI Capital and EFG Hermes banker.

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Al Futtaim Group moves Palm Hills Developments

YEAR IN REVIEW

2025 marked the end of Egypt’s tourism recovery and the start of its buildout

2025 was the year Egypt’s tourism sector decisively exited recovery mode and entered an expansion phase. While 2024 was defined by resilience and stabilizing foreign exchange flows, the main question facing policymakers and investors throughout 2025 was no longer whether demand would return, but whether Egypt could expand capacity fast enough to keep up.

The government openly returned to its target of welcoming 30 mn tourists annually, framing it less as a stretch goal and more as a planning baseline for the years ahead. On this front, the country seems to be making progress with 18.8 mn tourists having arrived in Egypt this year, up nearly 20% y-o-y, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said during his last weekly presser.

The GEM became a turning point

The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) officially opened in November after more than two decades in development, immediately reshaping tourism dynamics in Cairo and Giza. The museum is expected to draw 5 mn visitors annually. Its inauguration triggered a surge in interest in land surrounding the site, with hotel occupancy across Cairo and Giza hitting 100% during the opening week.

The central bottleneck throughout 2025 was hotel capacity

To hit their goal of 30 mn visitors, officials have repeatedly stressed that the sector needs to add roughly 240k–250k new rooms in hotel capacity. Egypt topped Africa’s hotel development pipeline during the year in a study by W Hospitality Group, with 143 hotels and nearly 34k rooms under development — accounting for about 32.5% of all rooms being built across the continent. Greater Cairo alone had close to 17.8k rooms in the pipeline, making it the single largest hotel development market in Africa. (The study includes data from 50 regional and international hotel chains, so it may be undercounting somewhat.)

Incentives got simpler — and more aggressive

To support this expansion, the Madbouly government moved away from heavy reliance on subsidized financing and toward removing structural obstacles. The cabinet approved a resolution exempting land and buildings from improvement fees when they are converted into hotels, provided developers meet strict operational deadlines (one to four years, depending on size).

The government also created the first formal regulatory framework to license holiday homes and short-term rentals. The move on the Airbnb-type stock of accommodation was a strategic play to bring existing shadow capacity into the formal market to both alleviate room shortages and capture tax revenues.

The Red Sea took center stage

Officials made it clear that future growth would be anchored by large, integrated Red Sea destinations designed to operate year-round. In September, the government announced plans for the EGP 900 bn (USD 20 bn) Marassi Red Sea project, developed by Emaar Misr in partnership with Citystars Properties. Modeling the destination on the success of Marassi on the North Coast, the project will include12 luxury hotels, marinas, and more than 500 waterfront retail outlets.

The North Coast also made headlines: Modon launched sales for the first phase of luxury residential and tourism units at its USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma destination. The project includes plans for c. 25k high-end hotel units and a massive international yacht marina. Qatari Diar inked a partnership with the government last month for a nearly USD 30 bn development at Alam Al Roum, designed as a permanent urban community that includes 4.5k hotel rooms, golf courses, and international marinas.

Policymakers also signaled they're getting serious about how land is developed on the Mediterranean coast. NUCA is slowing the pace (and changing the mechanism) at which it releases North Coast land while it works on a master plan for a 400 km stretch of coastline extending from Marina all the way to the Libyan border.

Private capital overwhelmingly drove the sector’s expansion during the year

Government estimates showed private investors accounting for 99.5% of targeted tourism investments for the fiscal year 2025-26, totaling roughly EGP 116.2 bn. Regional players from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar deepened their exposure, while global operators like Accor scaled up plans to operate 22 new hotels in Egypt by 2030.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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Grand Egyptian Museum hospitality tourism YEAR IN REVIEW

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Starmer under fire over support for Egyptian activist Alaa Abdel Fattah

If you thought his arrival in Britain would see activist Alaa Abdel Fattah leave the headlines, you thought wrong. The Egyptian-British national faces backlash from the right wing after past social media posts deemed “violent and offensive” resurfaced, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer facing just as much criticism after voicing his “delight” with Abdel Fattah’s return to the UK. The Guardian and BBC are out with reports that Starmer and his government are facing mounting criticism from MPs and the Jewish community over their role in securing the release of the activist, whose posts called for violence against zionists and the police.

The fallout is now playing out across British politics and institutions. Downing Street has sought to distance itself from the activist after initially welcoming his release, with the Foreign Office condemning his past remarks while stressing that his freedom remained a priority. Several senior Conservative figures who previously lobbied for Abdel Fattah’s release have publicly expressed regret for doing so.

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Alaa Abdel Fattah Egypt in the News politics

Also on our Radar

Al Baraka gets more time to submit MTO for AT Lease majority

The Financial Regulatory Authority granted Al Baraka Bank Egypt a 60-working-day extension to submit a mandatory tender offer for Al Tawfeek Leasing (AT Lease), according to a statement (pdf) from the regulator. The new window takes effect tomorrow.

Through the MTO, Al Baraka wants to raise its holding in AT Lease from 7.6% to as much as 90%, with a minimum acceptance threshold of 51%. The acquisition will be executed through a share swap, and AT Lease shareholders who choose to sell will receive newly-issued shares in Al Baraka.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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Al Baraka Bank ALSO ON OUR RADAR Financial Regulatory Authority

PLANET FINANCE

Passive funds surge as narrow markets punish active managers in 2025

Passive funds come out on top while stock pickers bleed: 2025 was another punishing year for active equity managers. About USD 1 tn was pulled from active equity mutual funds, extending outflows to an 11th straight year, while passive equity ETFs pulled in more than USD 600 bn, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.

Concentration did the damage: A small cluster of US mega-cap tech stocks accounted for an outsized share of market gains, reinforcing a decade-long pattern. Investors trying to keep up with the market have been increasingly cornered into holding those stocks (and little else), leaving diversified portfolios at a disadvantage.

The hit rate collapsed: Roughly 73% of US equity mutual funds trailed their benchmarks in 2025, the fourth-worst showing since 2007. Underperformance worsened after April’s tariff scare faded and AI enthusiasm reasserted tech leadership.

Breadth never showed up: On many days this year, fewer than one in five stocks rose alongside the broader market. The S&P 500 consistently beat its equal-weighted version — a clear signal that gains remained narrow and unforgiving for stock pickers.

Active still worked, just not at home: A handful of managers outperformed by stepping far outside US large caps. Dimensional Fund Advisors’ International Small Cap Value portfolio gained just over 50%, driven by exposure to non-US financials, industrials, and materials rather than Big Tech.

Why 2025 felt harsher than usual: The Financial Times points out that this year’s gainers were dominated by AI-linked stocks, Asian chipmakers, defense names, and precious metals, while US consumer and advertising stocks lagged — reinforcing sector and regional divides that made broad-based alpha elusive.

The identity crisis of “active”: With deviation proving costly, many funds drifted closer to index weights, blurring the line between active and passive while still charging higher fees. Bloomberg says that dynamic has made investors increasingly unwilling to pay for underperformance.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are starting the final trading week of the year on a mixed note. Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite are in the green in early trading. US futures are mostly trading flat ahead of the market opening later today.

EGX30	41,605	+0.9% (YTD: +39.9%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.59	Sell 47.73
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.61	Sell 47.71
Interest rates (CBE)	20.00% deposit	21.00% lending
Tadawul	10,417	-1.0% (YTD: -13.5%)
ADX	10,033	0.0% (YTD: +6.5%)
DFM	6,134	-0.1% (YTD: +18.9%)
S&P 500	6,930	0.0% (YTD: +17.8%)
FTSE 100	9,871	-0.2% (YTD: +20.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,746	-0.1% (YTD: +17.4%)
Brent crude	USD 61.15	+0.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.48	+2.7%
Gold	USD 4,523	-0.7%
BTC	USD 87,912	+0.1% (YTD: -6.2%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	987.88	+0.1% (YTD: +27.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.73	+0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	13.60	+1.0% (YTD: -21.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.9% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.5 bn (17.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 39.9% YTD.

In the green: Misr Cement (+9.1%), Qalaa Holdings (+3.6%), and E-finance (+3.3%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-1.4%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-0.6%), and ADIB (-0.6%).

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capital markets Financial Markets Planet Finance Salama

Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard

BLACKBOARD

EGX education stocks rally in 2025 as the five listed companies deliver strong gains

For investors tracking the education segment on the EGX, 2025 was a year of broad price gains and renewed interest in the five listed companies. The sector has seen a sharp swing in momentum over the course of 2025, moving from a modest early-year advance to a powerful year-end rally, with December positioning now taking place against a materially stronger sector backdrop.

The big picture

The year began on a cautious note. By the end of January (pdf), the sector rose by 6.8%, placing it among the better-performing sectoral indices, but well behind the month’s leading gainers. It remained a small component of the EGX, accounting for 1.18% of total market capitalization — EGP 26.3 bn. Trading activity was relatively contained, with EGP 832 mn in traded value excluding deals — around 1.1% of total market turnover — on volumes of 424 mn shares across just over 30k transactions. Including deals, traded value reached EGP 4.22 bn. Investor sentiment was weak, with foreign investors recording net outflows of about EGP 48.1 mn from the sector.

Valuations were already elevated, with the sector trading at 40.45x earnings and offering an average dividend yield of 5.78%.

Momentum strengthened dramatically by the end of November 2025 (pdf). The sector became the best-performing sector on the bourse, surging 25.4% over the month. Its market-cap weight rose to 1.94%, and total market capitalization climbed to roughly EGP 55.9 bn, reflecting a sharp re-rating. Liquidity improved meaningfully, with EGP 1.89 bn traded excluding deals — about 1.5% of total turnover — on volumes nearing 896 mn shares across more than 52k trades, while total traded value including deals reached about EGP 2.7 bn. Foreign investors turned net buyers, posting net inflows of around EGP 28.9 mn.

Valuations eased slightly relative to January, with the sector trading at around 31.7x earnings, while dividend yields fell to about 1.35%, underscoring a stronger growth tilt.

The rally was driven by the country’s five publicly traded education companies. CIRA Education, Cairo Educational Services (CAED), Egyptian Modern Education Systems,Suez Canal Company for Technology Settling, and Taaleem Management Services each delivered notable share price gains, driven by a combination of enrollment growth, strategic acquisitions, and investor appetite.

CIRA + CAED

Our friends at CIRA were among the more stable performers in 2025. The stock closed up 20.4% y-o-y at EGP 17.46 as of 25 December, giving the company a market cap of EGP 10.18 bn. CIRA’s results reflected continued growth in enrollment across its schools and campuses.

Speaking of stability: CIRA was among the 35 companies selected for the EGX35-LV low-volatility index, highlighting its position as one of the most stable listed education stocks on the EGX.

CIRA reported a near fivefold jump in normalized net income for FY 2024-2025 to EGP 295.7 mn on 41% higher revenue of EGP 3.9 bn, driven by strong enrollment growth. Tuition fees, the largest revenue contributor, rose 40% to EGP 3.5 bn, with higher education leading the growth and K–12 and nursery segments also posting solid gains. The company’s board also approved a EGP 200 mn dividend payout for the fiscal year that ended August 2025, equivalent to EGP 0.34 per share.

Of acquisitions and expansions: The year started with the Saudi Public Investment Fund-backed Social Impact Capital cementing its grip on CIRA in a EGP 3.4 bn transaction that brought its total stake to 88.7%. Also, CIRA’s bid to raise its stake in Cairo for Educational Services (CAED) to 90% secured the Financial Regulatory Authority’s (FRA) approval. It also expanded its footprint through the acquisition of a 51% stake in L’École Française d’Hurghada. Internationally and a minority stake in Falcon Academy near Washington, DC.

What’s next for CIRA? With Social Impact Capital now holding a majority stake, CIRA is pivoting toward a regional play, with the company looking to export its proven Egyptian model. “Global expansion is the name of the game now in CIRA,” CIRA Education CEO Mohamed El Kalla tells EnterpriseAM. “After almost 30 years of acute practice... CIRA has produced its unique DNA model that is very exportable and very adjustable to different localities.”

The timeline: The group currently operates in two countries outside of Egypt, with a roadmap to "penetrate up to five countries within the next 18 months."

More technological education in the pipeline: Beyond traditional K-12 and Higher Education, CIRA is doubling down on technological education, following the launch of its Saxony Egypt University for Applied Science and Technology earlier this year. “We have a strong belief that technological education is the future of education, not just profitability,” El Kalla says. He argues that the constant disruption of global industries makes this model essential for “lifelong learning.”

CAED (CIRA’s subsidiary) delivered one of the most pronounced share price rallies in the education universe. Its share price nearly more than doubled, closing at EGP 63.57 as of 25 December — a 119.2% y-o-y increase — resulting in a market cap of EGP 763 mn.

Other stocks

Egyptian Modern Education Systems posted even stronger percentage gains of 147.1% y-o-y to EGP 0.84 as of 25 December. Its market cap reached EGP 844 mn. We still have no word on the company’s potential acquisition of a 90% stake in Al Arafa for Investment and Consultancies.

Suez Canal Company for Technology Settling, a mixed-activity company that owns and operates the Sixth of October University, recorded the largest price increase of the five. Its shares rose to EGP 295.5, a 221.8% y-o-y increase, giving it a market capitalization of EGP 26.86 bn. The stock also paid a cash dividend of EGP 11.25 per share during 2025, enhancing its total return profile.

Taaleem Management Services’ share price ended the year up 58% at EGP 15.47, translating to a market cap of EGP 11.36 bn. Its total revenue surged 53% y-o-y to EGP 1.85 bn in FY 2024-2025 (pdf).

Investors are pricing a rise in net profits over the next two years

Education stocks are trading at 20-22x earnings, near the top of EGX valuations, as investors anticipate a shift from heavy investment to strong earnings growth, Hany Genena, head of research at Al Ahly Pharos, told EnterpriseAM. “Companies like CIRA are reaching the end of a nearly decade-long expansion cycle,” he said, noting a “peak capex and peak debt” phase. With higher capacity utilization and easing capital and interest costs, investors are pricing in rising net profits over the next two years, helping explain the sector’s elevated multiples.

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CALENDAR

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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