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Tuesday, 30 Sep 2025

What We're Tracking Today
Debt Watch
Poll
Real Estate
Debt Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar

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Today at a glance

1

DEBT WATCH

Egypt taps international debt market with USD 2 bn sovereign sukuk issuance.
2

POLL

Slim majority of analysts forecast rate cut on the back of easing inflation -EnterpriseAM poll.
3

Real estate

Gov’t freezes North Coast land allocation as it works on updating pricing policies.
4

What We're Tracking Today

Gov’t identifies more priority industries earmarked for localization.
5

DEBT WATCH

Egyptians for Healthcare Services closes EGP 2.4 bn sukuk for Capital Med.
6

Also on our Radar

UAE’s Dragon oil was awarded the North July oil concession.
7

PLANET FINANCE

EMs are in for a record year in private credit.
8

Going Green

Our green bunkering ambitions are at risk amid global headwinds — here is what experts say we should do.

Tuesday, 30 Sep 2025

What We're Tracking Today
Debt Watch
Poll
Real Estate
Debt Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar
1

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt identifies more priority industries earmarked for localization

Good morning, friends, and happy last day of September. We’re preparing to close out the month and 3Q and dive into the final months of 2025.

IN TODAY’S ISSUE- We lead the news well with debt news — we have returned to the international debt market with a USD 2 bn sovereign sukuk issuance. And in the lead up to this week’s interest rate meeting at the CBE, we spoke to a dozen economists and banking experts to get their predictions — most penciled in a 100-200 bps rate cut, citing cooling inflation.

ALSO- The localization push is once again making headlines after the Industry Ministry unveiled an even longer list of priority industries it wants to localize, bringing the total figure to 28.

BEFORE WE DIVE IN- We have a long weekend ahead: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly announced Thursday, 9 October as a holiday for the public sector in observance of Armed Forces Day. We’ll be on the lookout for similar statements from the Labor Ministry, EGX, and central bank.

PSA-

WEATHER- The capital is in for a high of 33°C and a low of 22°C today, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 30°C and a low of 21°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- El Khatib talks reforms with IMF team: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib met yesterday with two representatives from the IMF to review Egypt’s ongoing financial and trade reforms, according to a statement. El Khatib highlighted the latest efforts taken by the state to boost investment and trade.

REMEMBER- An IMF mission is scheduled to land in Egypt this week to complete the fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility Arrangement.

#2- FinMin to offer plots to investors under plan to monetize unused land: The Finance Ministry will launch the first phase of its plan to utilize unused state-owned idle land in the coming weeks, offering six plots in Cairo’s Al Gamaliya area to investors, it said in a statement. Data will be made available to investors and developers ahead of the official tender to allow for due diligence.

A push to draw in private-sector capital: The ministry said the plan aims to attract private developers, real estate funds, and companies with experience in urban projects to repurpose vacant state-owned plots into “innovative” developments that create added value and jobs in surrounding communities.

#3- So, when will the state begin taxing sugar again? The move to start taxing sugar for the first time since 2016 is awaiting the greenlight from MPs, who reconvene tomorrow, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The planned levy will come in three to four progressive brackets, the source said, noting that subsidized sugar sold to ration card holders will be exempt from the tax.

REMEMBER- A government source told us in April that the Finance Ministry is planning to introduce amendments to the Value Added Tax Law that would scale back exemptions on sugar. The move is expected to help the state raise some EGP 443 mn in sugar taxes.

#4- Gov’t identifies more priority industries earmarked for localization: The Industry Ministry has identified five industries that the government is looking to localize, adding onto the list of 23 priority industries unveiled last December.

The sectors in question now include solar and wind energy components, cars and their components, industrial system software, desalination and treatment plant components, baby formula, aluminum products, electrical transformers, seamless pipes, water pumps, pharma products, polyester, soda ash, electric motors, generators, inks, electrical components, recyclable materials, central air conditioning cooling systems, elevators and escalators, sound systems and cameras, advanced robotics, green hydrogen, petrochemicals, textiles, food industries, leather products, and iron and its derivatives.

Behind the selection: “Criteria for selecting these areas of manufacturing included: the availability of energy; the average monthly wages of workers, technicians and engineers; the availability of raw materials and factories in Egypt; access to production technologies necessary for each industry; local demand as well as Egypt's geographical advantage for distribution,” the Industry Ministry said in its statement.

#5- A new EU-backed fund to support NGOs: The Madbouly government yesterday launched the Civil Society Support Fund. Backed by the EU’s Equal Opportunities and Social Development project, the fund is designed to strengthen the ability of civil society organizations to respond to evolving community needs and support sustainable development.

DIPLOMACY-

Arab, Islamic FMs back Trump’s Gaza peace plan: Foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar issued a joint statement yesterday welcoming US President Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war in Gaza. The ministers said they “assert their confidence in his ability to find a path to peace” and underscored the importance of partnership with Washington in advancing regional stability. The FMs expressed their readiness to work with the US to finalize the agreement and ensure its implementation.

What’s in the plan? The 20-point plan — which secured Israeli backing last night — calls for an immediate ceasefire, a swap of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, a staged Israeli withdrawal, and Hamas’ disarmament. It envisions Gaza run by a technocratic Palestinian committee backed by a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump. Hamas is yet to respond to the proposal.

SUKUK WATCH-

Weekly sukuk roundup: The yield to maturity on our sovereign sukuk eased to 8.07% last Friday, down from 8.27% the week before, according to the weekly report (pdf) on Egypt’s sovereign sukuk performance. The country’s sovereign sukuk prices rose slightly to USD 101.14, compared to USD 101.12 a week earlier.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- We’re on the lookout for Korean investment and economic cooperation news today as Egypt and South Korea mark 30 years of diplomatic relations with the Egypt-South Korea Business Forum. Bilateral investment, trade, green energy, and education cooperation are expected to top the agenda.

#2- It’s day two of Egypt Innovation Week, the country-wide “week-long celebration [that] brings together entrepreneurs, investors, educators, and government leaders to spark collaboration and drive real impact,” according to the event organizers. The series of events and forums runs until 6 October.

It’s also the last day of the event's Techne Summit Cairo, which is expected to bring together tens of thousands of innovators from over 70 countries and some big names in the local, regional, and global startup scene as speakers.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

#1- The House will officially be back in session tomorrow: The House of Representatives will convene tomorrow to open the sixth session of the second legislative term, according to a directive from President Abdel Fattah El Sisi published in the Official Gazette.

#2- Attention executives, the application deadline for the Onsi Sawiris School of Business’ Executive MBA program is tomorrow. The program offers senior executives, entrepreneurs, and professionals the chance to hone their leadership skills, learn how to drive real strategic change in their organizations, and gain a new global perspective on business. The 20-month program tailored for working professionals is set to kick off in mid-October.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The foreign press is leading with Donald Trump’s announcement that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have agreed on a US-brokered peace framework for Gaza — a 20-point plan that calls for an immediate ceasefire. Trump warned Hamas that Israel would have Washington’s “full support” to destroy Hamas if it rejects the deal. (Reuters | The Guardian | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Washington Post | BBC | New York Times)

We have more on the plan and the Arab response to it in the news well, above.

ON THE CLIMATE FRONT- Leaders from climate-vulnerable nations used the UN General Assembly to blast rich countries for falling short on funding commitments, Reuters reports. Developing countries’ leaders said the USD 100 bn pledged back in 2009 came too late and that the USD 300 bn target set for 2035 is nowhere near the USD 1 tn they estimate is needed annually by the end of the decade. We suspect climate action will be a frequent guest on the foreign pages in the weeks to come with COP30 less than two weeks away.

AND IN THE COURTS- Charlie Javice, the founder of student-loan fintech Frank, was sentenced to seven years in prison for defrauding JPMorgan in its USD 175 mn acquisition of her company. The 33-year-old entrepreneur was also ordered to pay USD 288 mn in restitution and forfeit another USD 22 mn, though the judge allowed her to remain free on bail pending appeal, citing her medical condition. (Financial Times | The Guardian | CNBC | New York Times | Reuters | Axios | Associated Press)

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at Egypt’s green bunkering ambitions and how the country can navigate the hurdles facing green bunkering uptake.

Tags:

As the Sahel summer winds down, the Red Sea is just getting started. Say hello to Somabay, a year-round seaside escape where tranquil waters, world-class diving, kitesurfing, golf, and wellness come together in one breathtaking destination. This September, it also hosts the ITF World Tennis Tour, bringing world-class tennis to the coast. Somabay is the perfect next stop, a place where the season never ends, and every day feels like the first day of summer

2

DEBT WATCH

Egypt taps international debt market with USD 2 bn sovereign sukuk issuance

Egypt returned to the international debt market yesterday with a USD 2 bn dual tranche sovereign sukuk issuance, comprising tenors of three and seven years, with the offering advisors inviting investors to subscribe, senior government sources told EnterpriseAM.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

REMEMBER- The issuance stands as Egypt’s third-ever sovereign sukuk issuance, following June’s USD 1 bn sovereign sukuk issuance, which was fully subscribed by Kuwait Finance House, and our maiden sukuk issuance back in 2023.

The issuance is the first international issuance of the fiscal year and is composed of a USD 1.25 bn, three-year tranche with an indicative yield of 8.625%, while the longer-term tranche is valued at USD 750 mn with an interest rate of 9.45%.

The issuance is twice as big as we were expecting. A government source told us in August that Egypt may tap the international debt markets with a USD 1 bn sovereign sukuk tranche by September or October as a part of the country's USD 5 bn international sovereign sukuk program.

The new issuance’s yields are significantly lower than those on our maiden sukuk tranche, which was initially priced at 11.0% before market momentum dragged the yield down. Our sources attributed the dip to an improvement in our credit rating and the stable economic outlook.

There are more international debt issuances in the pipeline, with the Finance Ministry moving forward with plans to issue USD 3-4 bn in international bonds this fiscal year to help address its USD 11 bn external financing gap. The planned issuances could include EUR- and USD-denominated securities, sustainability bonds, sukuk, and CNY- or JPY-denominated instruments, according to our sources.

What’s next? The bonds will be listed on the London Stock Exchange when the issuance is closed, we were told.

ADVISORS- Our friends at HSBC are leading the issuance, along with Citibank, Dubai Islamic Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank.

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3

POLL

Slim majority of analysts forecast rate cut on the back of easing inflation -EnterpriseAM poll

Most analysts surveyed by EnterpriseAM see the Central Bank of Egypt continuing its easing cycle this week when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday for its sixth meeting of the year. Eight out of the 12 economists and banking experts we spoke to forecast a rate cut between 100-200 bps, while the other four participants see the CBE holding rates unchanged.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

REMEMBER- The CBE slashed interest rates by 200 bps in its fifth meeting of the year in August, resuming its easing cycle, which was paused in July after two consecutive cuts totalling 325 bps in April and May. The August cut marked the bank's third rate cut since November 2020.

Where rates currently stand: The overnight deposit rate now stands at 22.0%, the overnight lending rate at 23.0%, and the main operation and disc. rates at 22.5%. Rates are now down a whole 525 bps since the bank began its easing cycle in April.

Easing inflation has given the CBE the needed room to continue cutting rates, with annual headline urban inflation easing 1.9 percentage points to 12.0% y-o-y in August, most analysts emphasized in their comments to us. The dip brought the country’s headline figure to its lowest reading since March 2022 and marked the third consecutive month of easing price growth, providing further confirmation for many that the country’s broad disinflationary trajectory is here to stay.

Some also pointed to exchange rate stability as a reason why the bank will decide to cut, including economist Hany Hafez told EnterpriseAM that the MPC has a “golden window” as it can capitalize on both “slowing inflation and the stability of the EGP.” EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha similarly pointed to “the appreciating EGP, absence of fiscal consolidation measures, and a favourable base effect” as the drivers of a positive trajectory for inflation.

October’s a good time to frontload cuts for the year with upcoming IMF reforms set to add to inflationary pressures later in the year, argues Deutsche Bank. To persuade the Fund to greenlight the combined fifth and sixth reviews of our Extended Fund Facility, upcoming fuel price hikes will result in “additional pass-through to inflation in November and possibly December.”

Despite recent rate cuts, real interest rates are still at historically high levels, Hany Hafez told EnterpriseAM. This gives the CBE a comfortable margin to cut rates without threatening market stability or the attractiveness of our carry trade, he added.

But not everyone agrees that the MPC will decide to cut, including Economics Professor Medhat Nafei and former Industrial Development Bank Chairman Maged Fahmy, who think the CBE will likely hit pause on rate cuts this week. The two see the bank preferring to wait and assess the impact of upcoming price fuel hikes before making a move.

The bank may also keep rates stable “to give the economy enough time to fully absorb August’s 200 bps rate cut,” HC Securities’ Heba Mounir told us. Mounir also pointed to the “anticipated inflationary impact of the USD 1 per mn British thermal units increase in natural gas price to the industrial sector and the upcoming fuel price hikes that will be announced in October,” among her reasons behind her forecast.

If the bank does go for a 200 bps cut, any future cuts this year will be limited, Hany Hafez added. Assuming the CBE does go for the larger cut, the government is expected to closely monitor the inflationary impact of planned energy price increases as the country phases out subsidies under its obligations to the IMF, we were told.

As ever, “the easing cycle will remain gradual and data-dependent,” economist and Kent Business College Business Advisor Ali Metwally said in reference to the CBE’s long-stated approach to the issue. The CBE will continue to balance “inflation risks against the need to support growth and reduce the fiscal burden of high debt servicing,” he added. Under this view, Metwally sees 200-300 bps worth of cuts, including from this week, by the end of the year. Some, including Abu Basha, see the planned fuel price hike pushing the bank to keep rates put in November’s meeting as it assesses the impact.

Some are more bullish in their 2025 forecasts, including Capital Economics’ James Swanston, who thinks the bank could cut rates by a total 400 bps from now until the end of the year. On the assumption that inflation will cool over the remainder of the year to an average 11.0% y-o-y in 4Q, Swanston sees the bank moving to cut rates 200 bps this week before adding two 100 bps cuts in November and December to take the overnight deposit rate to 18.0%.

Those expecting a hold this week have scaled back expectations for cuts to come in the last few months of the year, including Beltone Holding Head of Research Ahmed Hafez who sees room for a further 250 bps worth of cuts in 4Q if it keeps rates stable in its upcoming meeting.

And if inflation speeds up in September’s reading, further rate cuts could be off the table for 2025 — even if the MPC holds rates this week — Nafei said. “If monthly inflation readings show a sharp rebound, this holding pattern could persist until the end of the year,” he said.

The consensus is that inflation may creep up again at some point in 2025, but think it’s no reason to panic, with any uptick in inflationary pressures expected to remain in the 12-14% y-o-y range, Metwally told us. Any uptick in this range will still be well below last year’s peaks, he added.

If inflation does pick up, incoming fuel, energy, and water price hikes will be to blame, Hany Hafez — who also sees inflation concluding 2025 in the 12-14% range — told us. Abu Basha similarly penciled in inflation ending the year at 13-14%, pointing to the expected 15-20% fuel price hike in October.

There’s a risk we’re overestimating the impact of the approaching fuel price hike, as “historical data suggests that fuel price hikes trigger a rise in the monthly inflation rate to nearly 3%” which — even if at the upper estimate of 3.5% — would push the annual headline figure to 13.5% y-o-y, or 14% y-o-y with ripple effects, according to Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena. But after this final hike to end fuel subsidies once and for all, “future hikes would be the usual 10%, less or more, depending on global fuel and oil prices and the exchange rate,” opening up the door to bringing inflation down to more normal levels.

Yet, others think that the inflation rate could weather incoming inflationary pressures, with fuel price hikes potentially absorbed by a dip in the country's import bill as the EGP strengthens against the USD, EG Bank Board Member Mohamed Abdel Aal told us. Abdel Aal sees headline inflation stabilizing at around 12% y-o-y on average and core inflation at 10% y-o-y on average.

In the short term, many analysts see inflation falling in September, including Deutsche Bank, which sees inflation falling around 1.5 percentage points to 10.5% y-o-y — give or take. Abu Basha also expects inflation to fall again in September, before rising the month after, “when the next — and final — fuel price hike will be implemented.”

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4

Real estate

Egypt freezes North Coast land allocation as it works on updating pricing policies

Gov’t rethinks North Coast land pricing: The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) has suspended new land allocations on the North Coast to allow for a comprehensive update of pricing policies of plots around Ras El Hekma through to Alam El Roum, government sources told EnterpriseAM. The move comes as the government reviews land valuations in light of new road networks and the flagship Ras El Hekma project.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Repricing incoming for new projects: The repricing drive is expected to reset land values for future projects in the area, while NUCA also plans to cancel its land withdrawal mechanism.

Flexibility on existing fees: Authorities are also softening the terms of the EGP 1k per sqmimprovement fee levied on local North Coast developers and the USD 20 per sqm fee on foreign players, the sources told us. The fees will now only apply to undeveloped land. In cases where developers acquired land via transfers, NUCA is reviewing each case individually.

Dozens of appeals under review: NUCA is still processing a backlog of complaints, having received some 50 appeals from 33 developers, of which a portion has already been resolved. Another 123 companies have moved ahead with their projects after settling financial dues and obtaining licenses, according to the sources.

REMEMBER- Earlier this month, NUCA adopted more lenient terms allowing developers to settle 20% of fees upfront and the remainder over five years. Foreign developers remain obliged to settle fees in a single installment.

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5

DEBT WATCH

Egyptians for Healthcare Services closes EGP 2.4 bn sukuk for Capital Med

Egyptians for Healthcare Services closed Egypt’s first sustainability-linked musharaka sukuk, raising EGP 2.4 bn to finance its Capital Med project, according to a statement (pdf).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

A double first: The issuance marks Egypt’s first sustainability-linked musharaka sukuk and its first for a greenfield company in the healthcare industry.

About the project: Badr City’s medical city Capital Med is a 144-acre, fully integrated healthcare city, which will house over 4k beds, 700 ICUs, and 70 operating rooms, serving over 5 mn patients a year. It will employ over 25k healthcare professionals. It aims to play a part in the government’s ambitions to make Egypt a medical tourism hub.

Who bought in? Al Ahly Pharos, National Bank of Egypt, Suez Canal Bank, and Al Baraka Bank acted as the transaction’s underwriters. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and the Industrial Development Bank participated in the issuance.

ADVISORS- Al Ahly Pharos acted as the financial advisor, lead manager, and bookrunner. The National Bank of Egypt acted as the placement agent, and the Suez Canal Bank served as the payment agent. Zulficar & Partners provided counsel, while Baker Tilly was the auditor.

PREMIUM CARD RAISES EGP 224 MN IN SECURITIZATION ISSUANCE-

Premium International for Financial Services — often known by its sole product Premium Card — closed a EGP 224 mn securitization bond issuance, its fourth under an EGP 2 bn, three-year program, according to a statement (pdf) from Dreny & Partners, which provided counsel on the transaction. The issuance was backed by a receivables portfolio assigned by Premium International.

The details: The issuance came in two tranches, rated P1 and A- by the Middle East Ratings and Investors Service.

ADVISORS- Our friends at EFG Hermes acted as the financial advisor, lead arranger, and underwriter, while the Arab African International Bank acted as the underwriter, custodian, and bookrunner. KPMG was the auditor.

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6

Also on our Radar

UAE’s Dragon oil was awarded the North July oil concession

ENERGY-

#1- UAE’s Dragon Oil was awarded the North July oil concession, northeast of the Gulf of Suez, Asharq Business reports, citing a government official. The agreement, expected to be signed before year-end, will run for six years and commits Dragon Oil to invest at least USD 20 mn, including drilling up to three wells. Production is slated to begin within two years of signing.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.

REMEMBER- Three energy firms — Dragon Oil, drilling giant Ades Holding, and local energy player Cheiron — were all vying for the concession.

Dragon has the edge: The field is located near the Gulf of Suez Petroleum Company’s production facilities, in which Dragon Oil is a shareholder, a key factor that an official says could speed up development and output timelines.

#2- Egypt, Greece wrap up GREGY studies: Egypt and Greece signed an agreement to conclude the technical and economic studies for the 3 GW Egypt-Greece Interconnector (GREGY), according to a statement from the Electricity Ministry.

REMEMBER- Work on GREGY is slated to begin before the end of 2H 2025, with EUR 1 bn in financing expected from European lenders. The link will channel up to 3 GW of electricity from Egypt to Europe via the Greek grid, with 1 GW earmarked for Greece and the rest set to reach countries like Germany and Italy. The link-up is part of Egypt’s wider plan to boost total interconnection capacity to 3.9 GW by 2026, up from 790 MW last year.

M&A WATCH-

#1- ECA clears Moody’s to take control of Meris: The Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) has approved Moody’s acquisition of a 35% stake in Middle East Rating & Investors Service (Meris), giving the New York-based credit rating giant the ability to exercise sole control over Egypt’s only domestic credit rating agency, according to an ECA statement. The competition watchdog said it received the full filing at the start of September and granted it the clearance.

REMEMBER- Moody’s announced it was looking to raise its stake in Meris to a majority holding in August, as part of a push to broaden its presence in the region. The rating agency, which was set up in 2003 as a joint venture between Moody’s and local consultant Finance and Banking Consultants International (FinBi), issues domestic credit ratings for banks, companies, and structured finance transactions.

#2- What’s the fair value of Cairo Educational Services? Karvy Financial has put Cairo for Educational Services’ fair value at EGP 29.9-30.9, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). This makes CIRA’s offer price of EGP 32.7 a roughly 5.8% premium, by our math.

REMEMBER-Last month, the FRA cleared CIRA’s bid to raise its stake in Cairo Educational Services to 90% through a mandatory tender offer covering 20.6% of the company at EGP 32.7 per share, valuing the transaction at EGP 80.8 mn. The MTO is valid until 13 October.

REAL ESTATE-

Madinet Masr will set up development companies abroad with initial investments of USD 5 mn after its board approved the move, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf).

ALSO FROM MADINET MASR- The local real estate developer inked a strategic partnership agreement with local design studio Qubix to set up Tajed’s first commercial and entertainment hub, called The Prism, set to be completed by the end of 2026. It inked another agreement with fitness brand LA7 to open a 5.4k sqm integrated health, wellness, and sports complex — its largest branch yet — in Tajed, set to begin operations in 1Q 2027.

DIPLOMACY -

Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was in town for a one-day visit, where he met with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and discussed Egypt-bound Emirati investments and economic ties between the two nations.

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7

PLANET FINANCE

Private credit boom hits emerging markets with record USD 11.7 bn in H1 2025

Emerging markets (EM) are on track for their biggest year yet in private credit, Bloomberg reports. Global lenders including Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, and Ares deployed USD 11.7 bn in 1H 2025 — nearly matching last year’s total of USD 13.9 bn — putting the asset class on course for a record, the business news information service reports, citing the Global Private Capital Association.

Funds are looking to pivot away from their long-standing reliance on US assets as a way to diversify allocations. EM-based firms, meanwhile, are drawn to the flexibility and confidentiality offered by private lenders, though often at a higher cost than public debt.

India has led the surge, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s infrastructure push fueling demand for capital for projects ranging from solar plants to roads. Elsewhere, Romania’s sports gaming platform Superbet alone secured EUR 1.3 bn from Blackstone and HPS, while Southeast Asia logged USD 1.1 bn in transactions.

Despite this, private credit in EMs still makes up less than 10% of the USD 1.7 tn global market, with some lenders viewing them as too risk-prone. Momentum is nevertheless building as investors chase diversification and higher returns, with inflows into public markets boosting confidence. EM equities are up 23% YTD, while hard-currency bonds have gained nearly 9%. “It’s still at a relatively early phase compared to the US [...] but in general we do see it growing,” said Jeff Schlapinski of the Global Private Capital Association.

Most transactions are also on the smaller side, with the majority in the tens of mns of USD, and volumes accounting for only a fraction of most corporates’ debt books, with bank lending and public debt markets still accounting for the majority.

However, regional players are giving the market a boost, enabling bigger transactions and larger fundraisings. India’s EAAA India Alternatives raised USD 510 mn for its first private credit vehicle, while in the Gulf, Saudi’s Public Investment Fund recently agreed to anchor new Goldman Sachs funds targeting private credit and public equity across the GCC. In the UAE, Mubadala grew its private credit portfolio to USD 20 bn last year.

It’s a big year for private credit more in general: Wealthy individuals poured USD 48 bn into US private credit funds in 1H 2025 — surpassing last year’s total — even as institutional demand waned. Policy tailwinds are helping, with Trump signing an executive order in August opening 401ks to private assets. Evergreen debt funds in Europe also more than doubled y-o-y.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning, with mainland China’s CSI 300 flat at the open after China’s latest manufacturing data showed the sector contracting for a sixth straight month. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.1%, while South Korea’s Kospi was also flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the only outlier, rising nearly 0.5%.

Over on Wall Street, futures have only marginally dipped, with stocks set to close out September on an unusually high note following the rebound of AI stocks yesterday.

EGX30

36,391

+0.6% (YTD: +22.4%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.98

Sell 48.12

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.00

Sell 48.10

Interest rates (CBE)

22.00% deposit

23.00% lending

Tadawul

11,434

+1.8% (YTD: -5.0%)

ADX

9,991

-0.1% (YTD: +6.1%)

DFM

5,869

+0.2% (YTD: +13.8%)

S&P 500

6,661

+0.3% (YTD: +13.3%)

FTSE 100

9,300

+0.2% (YTD: +13.8%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,507

+0.1% (YTD: +12.5%)

Brent crude

USD 67.65

-0.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.27

+0.2%

Gold

USD 3,877

+0.6%

BTC

USD 114,255

+1.9% (YTD: +22.2%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

926.79

+0.1% (YTD: +19.2%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

150.44

+0.1% (YTD: +7.5%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

16.12

+5.4% (YTD: -7.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.6% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.9 bn (11.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 22.4% YTD.

In the green: Emaar Misr (+5.9%), Raya Holding (+3.6%), and Telecom Egypt (+3.1%).

In the red: E-finance (-1.0%), Orascom Construction (-0.7%), and Eastern Company (-0.5%).

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Our weekly deep dive into the green economy and ESG issue in Egypt.

Published every Tuesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read going Green
8

Going Green

Egypt’s green bunkering ambitions at risk amid global headwinds — here is what experts say Egypt should do

Egypt has been heralded as a potential global leader in green shipping due to its strategic location and vast renewable resources. But as the initial excitement around new green tech projects fades, the critical question emerges: how real is the hype? We sat down with industry experts to understand the major hurdles facing green bunkering uptake and how Egypt can navigate these uncertainties to convert its grand plans into ground-level reality.

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For starters, the global market for green hydrogen-based fuels is still very underdeveloped. “At the moment, the market is driven by harsh realities when it comes to the economics of hydrogen projects, green industry fellow at regional climate thinktank Carboun Institute Fadi Al Noaimi, told us. We’re seeing a global trend” of scaling back some projects — which could be viewed as a “necessary market correction,” Al Noaimi added.

The lack of locked-in uptake agreements is the biggest challenge facing green bunkering, as it suggests there is no business case to advance many of the announced projects, Dii Desert Energy Research Director Chiara Aruffo told EnterpriseAM.

A regional case in point: The UAE-based renewables giant Masdar said last month it will redirect energy from its USD 6 bn mega solar and battery project from green hydrogen production to power AI. “Today, green hydrogen is under pressure, and the market is shrinking. A lot of people who went into this venture are out,” CEO Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi said after the announcement.

In global numbers: At least 50 clean hydrogen projects have been publicly cancelled in the last 18 months, representing 4 mn tonnes per annum (mtpa) of capacity, according to the Hydrogen Council’s Global Hydrogen Compass 2025 report (pdf) out earlier this month. In a best-case scenario, some 20 to 30% of the world’s announced clean hydrogen projects — representing 9-14 mn mtpa — are expected to make a final investment decision by 2030.

But this could soon change thanks to new regulatory measures by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Norwegian maritime industry advisor DNV’s recently published Maritime Forecast 2050 expects. Demand for low-carbon shipping fuels — including LNG — is expected to hit 25 mn tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) by 2030, up from the 17 mtoe predicted in DNV’s last year.

While only 1% of the current binding offtake for green hydrogen and ammonia is earmarked for shipping fuels, this figure is predicted to grow — largely due to the IMO and the European Union’s regulatory mandates, according to industry CEOs surveyed by the Hydrogen Council. IMO’s new rules would be "essential to generate a greater demand for green hydrogen-based fuels shipping" and to clearly define their climate advantages, Aruffo agrees.

The IMO is set to formally adopt next month its Net Zero Framework (NZF) — aiming for a 20% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2050 through a set of emission reduction mandates and penalties. The NZF was approved last April and the IMO is scheduled to take a final vote for its adoption next month.

But the success of the IMO mandate would be highly dependent on the trajectory of oil and gas prices. For example, it is expected to be more affordable for shippers who use high-sulfur fuel oil to pay the IMO penalties up to 2030 before they are incentivized to switch to cleaner alternatives, according to the Hydrogen Council report. Very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) is a type of fossil-derived fuel mandated by the IMO in 2020 to limit harmful sulfur emissions, and it is now used by the industry’s largest ships.

That being said, governments committed to decarbonization would need to go beyond the “cut or pay” regulations to incentivize the industry. “Without a clear price on carbon emissions and the removal of subsidies for fossil fuels, it's difficult for green hydrogen and other renewable energy solutions to compete on cost alone. This is a critical barrier to their widespread adoption,” Aruffo told us. Other forms of support from governments could include direct financial backing, which Al Naoimi said would be “inevitable to de-risk the projects.”

The next few years will be critical for the green fuels market, as industry and governments enter a period of “recalibration.” Competing priorities regarding energy security, competitiveness, and cost-efficiency will inform this calibration, according to surveyed CEOs in the Hydrogen Council report. The next period is expected to replace the hype with “realism and pragmatism,” with only the strongest projects advancing — which can lead to a more resilient industry, the report says.

Egypt could benefit from doubling down on green methanol, given that the scaled deployment of the clean fuel is more feasible than its hydrogen-based counterparts — green hydrogen and ammonia. Ports representing 45% of the world’s bunkering capacity either have in place or are planning methanol bunkering infrastructure, suggesting more infrastructure readiness.

Geography isn’t Egypt’s only competitive advantage. Ain Sokhna port is among the world’s top 80 ports described as having "well-developed expertise in managing chemical products," indicating a "strong readiness to also handle hydrogen-based fuels," according to the International Energy Agency’s Global Hydrogen 2025 Review (pdf). Coupled with its strategic location along the Suez Canal — connecting Europe and Asia, Ain Sokhna port emerges as a favorable location for early adoption of low-emissions hydrogen-based fuel bunkering.

REMEMBER- Egypt is planning to begin commercial methanol bunkering operations by 2027 at its Suez Canal ports and has successfully tested a bunkering operation for a container ship in East Port Said back in 2023.

While the future of the green bunkering market hinges on global market dynamics beyond us, there are many measures we can take to ensure we secure a piece of any future market. For starters, Egypt should double down on the concept of "common user infrastructure" — clustered shared facilities and assets that can be utilized by multiple developers as in the case in Ain Sokhna, Aruffo said. “This collaborative approach prevents the duplication of essential facilities like pipelines, allowing developers to pay a tariff for shared access rather than incurring the significant capital expenditure of building their own. This makes these large-scale projects more economically viable," Aruffo explained.

Common user infrastructure isn’t only good for cutting costs, it is also critical for saving our resources. For example, shared desalination facilities using seawater could "help mitigate water usage concerns in the water-intensive green hydrogen projects,” Aruffo explains. This reduces the risk of individual projects depleting local freshwater resources or facing prohibitive costs for water sourcing.

A more centralized approach for planning hydrogen infrastructure could also raise investors' confidence in projects’ executionability, Aruffo said. Hydrom — the master-planner agency of Oman’s hydrogen strategy — is a good example where having a dedicated entity that takes "ownership of the process" for screening projects, tendering, and master planning infrastructure could help streamline the process, reduce costs, and provide reassurance to investors, she added.

The bottom line: While Egypt holds a prime position to lead in green bunkering, its ambitions hinge on global market dynamics and the future of oil and gas prices. Still, robust government support, clearer incentives, and de-risking measures could help the country secure a big share of the future market.

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CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

29 September-6 October (Monday-Monday): Egypt Innovation Week.

29 September-6 October (Monday-Monday): Capital Connect.

29-30 September-6 October (Monday-Tuesday): Techne Summit Cairo, Sultan Hussein Kamel Palace, Cairo.

30 September (Tuesday): The Egypt-South Korea Economic Cooperation and Partnership Forum.

The Egyptian-Moroccan Business Council to send a delegation of 23 local companies to Rabat.

The Engineering Export Council of Egypt will ship a commercial delegation to Russia to ramp up exports to European markets.

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay.

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026.

OCTOBER

1 October (Wednesday): IMF mission expected to visit Egypt for talks on combined fifth and sixth reviews of the EFF arrangement.

1 October (Wednesday): Applications for alternative housing for old rent tenants will open through an online platform or at post offices nationwide.

2 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

4-6 October (Saturday-Monday): Techne Summit Alexandria, Alexandria Bibliotheca, Alexandria.

7 October (Tuesday): The 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): HACE-Hotel Expo, Egypt International Exhibitions Center.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): EgyMedica Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

12-16 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo.

19-20 October (Sunday-Monday): Egypt to host the fifth edition of the Aswan Forum.

19-22 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Stone Africa Expo, Cairo International Conference Center.

October: The third iteration of the Export Smart Exhibition and Conference.

Mid-October: Capmas to publish the findings of its 2023-2024 income and expenditure survey.

NOVEMBER

1 November (Saturday): The official opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

16-19 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center

20 November (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23-25 November (Sunday-Tuesday): NEBU Expo 2025 gold and jewelry exhibition, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, New Cairo.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Center.

4-7 December (Thursday-Sunday): Egy Stitch & Tex Expo 2025, Cairo International Conference Center.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: Polaris Parks to finalize contracts for two new industrial zones in the new capital and Sadat City.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

15 March 2026: IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

15 September 2026: IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

https://entlaq.com/events/2

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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