In the run-up to COP30 — set to be held in Brazil in November — far fewer nations are stepping forward with new commitments compared to previous years. Only around 30 out of 195 countries have submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of the summit, with some of the world’s largest emitters, such as the EU and China, missing their initial deadlines.

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Conflict and trade wars are diverting attention from the fight against climate change, COP30 CEO Ana Toni told The Guardian. The US, under Donald Trump’s presidency, also pulled the plug on existing climate policy, alongside a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and a rollback on US financial commitments to international climate agreements.

Egypt’s target to generate 42% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 is at risk without greater international support, promised climate finance, and technology transfer, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly warned at COP29. He added that developing countries’ climate commitments would remain “ink on paper” if financing and support fall short.

The final figures aren’t out yet, but the country’s renewables share is expected to have reached 13.8% during the last fiscal year, up from 11.5% a year earlier.

The state aims to raise renewables’ share in the energy mix to 20% this fiscal year, a government source told us last month. Some 12.7 GW — 3.8 GW of solar and 8.9 GW of wind — are already in development, we were told.

On the decarbonization front, Egypt will publish a renewables roadmap through 2030, according to the National Narrative for Economic Development (pdf). The roadmap will detail how it will work to achieve its climate targets, along with emission reduction targets aligned with Egypt’s NDCs, with fines for non-compliance after a two-year grace period.

The Environment Ministry and the Egyptian-German Joint Committee have recently held a coordination meeting to push forward climate cooperation, focusing on setting up climate change units across ministries, preparing sectoral action plans, and developing a digital tool to track progress on Egypt’s NDCs.

On the finance front, the Central Bank of Egypt will order banks to monitor and report their clients’ exposure to the EU’s incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), enforce a regulatory framework obliging banks to adopt environmental and social risk management systems, and add two new subprojects to the National Climate Strategy — one for adaptation and another for mitigation — with initial feasibility studies aimed at attracting private financing. By end-2025, further reforms and measures will be identified, with adoption targeted by June 2026, the narrative adds.

Regarding CBAM, a comprehensive study is underway to assess its impact on Egypt's economy and export competitiveness. The analysis will encompass carbon intensity, export sensitivity, and sectoral effects on cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen across various domestic and international policy scenarios. The study is expected to evaluate regulatory frameworks, financial incentives, and carbon pricing tools to mitigate risks while ensuring continued access to export markets.

Authorities also issued three new decisions to structure the voluntary carbon market. The regulations cover accreditation requirements for verification and validation bodies under the Financial Regulatory Authority, standards for carbon credit registries licensed by the Carbon Regulatory Authority, and procedures for listing and canceling voluntary carbon credits.

Further amendments introduce a licensing regime for carbon credit rating agencies, setting clear functions and regulatory requirements for their establishment and operation, aiming to add a layer of investor protection.

The IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility could also add a further USD 274 mn to the total amount disbursed to us this fall, once the fifth and sixth reviews of our USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility are approved, a source familiar with the talks between the two sides told EnterpriseAM last week. The additional climate financing would come from the first two tranches of the roughly USD 1.2 bn program and bring the combined fifth and sixth review disbursals to USD 2.7 bn.

But to get the extra funds, Egypt will have to make progress on four key climate-focused reforms and eventually complete them by the end of the program. These include accelerating decarbonization, climate risk analysis and disclosure, strengthening financial sector resilience and climate finance, and measuring and disclosing climate impacts of investments.

The government is also planning to adopt a system for assessing the environmental impacts of major investments, which includes applying climate-related standards to all new projects worth over EGP 500 mn, and expanding the current asset registry pilot to cover the transport, housing, and utilities ministries, focusing on large public assets.

A regulatory framework was also approved to implement and digitize the national monitoring, reporting, and verification system, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s transparency requirements. The framework covers at least three sectors — transport, electricity, and oil and gas — and was reinforced by a cabinet decision that establishes a database to track emissions and progress on the carbon market.

On water security, the government plans to bring more private investment into water infrastructure, with at least four projects being developed for private sector participation in line with the state ownership policy. At least two competitive PPP tenders are also expected for water infrastructure projects under the Housing and Utilities Ministry.

A National Water Council will also be established and will oversee the collection and publication of water demand and supply data by sector and region to guide allocation decisions by June 2026. The body will also introduce a formal methodology for cross-sector water allocation to manage competing demands by August 2026.

Your top green economy stories for the week:

• Infinity Power and UAE’s Masdar will break ground on their 200 MW Ras Ghareb wind farm within weeks after securing a USD 74.1 mn financing package led by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
• CI Capital PE for Fund Management and Engazaat are launching a USD 200 mn green infrastructure fund — dubbed the SAVE Fund — set to be the “first-of-its-kind green infrastructure investment fund” on the Abu Dhabi Global Market. The fund will also be followed by a mirror vehicle in Egypt.
• Swiss packaging manufacturer SIG, GIZ, and multiple private-sector players launched a full recycling project for beverage cartons, called Green Jobs from a Box, covering collection, fiber recovery, and reuse of PolyAl material, according to a statement (pdf). The initiative aims to recycle 700 tons of cartons within three years and to improve the livelihood of more than 1k local waste collectors.