What do broader regional tensions following Israel and Iran trading airstrikes mean for Egypt’s Suez Canal? While the Suez Canal has not seen disruptions so far from the most recent escalation, Banking expert Hany Abou El Fotouh cautioned in comments to EnterpriseAM that “disruptions in regional maritime security or significant rises in ins. costs could temporarily prompt shipping lines to reconsider their routes.”

The disruptions could derail efforts to bring back global shipping lines to the waterway. Transit receipts from the Suez Canal dropped 62.3% y-o-y to USD 1.8 bn in 1H FY 2024-2025 on the back of Red Sea disruptions that pushed ships to reroute away from the canal. Tonnage through the canal was down some 70% y-o-y at 117.5 mn tons in 2Q of this year — despite the Suez Canal Authority offering a 15% discount in containership fees.

Greece and the UK have already advised shipping firms to avoid sailing through the Gulf of Aden — which acts as the southern gateway to the Suez Canal — and to log any and all movements through the Hormuz Strait, according to documents seen by Reuters. “A large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea seems less likely, a situation which continues to have a major impact on ocean container shipping rates 18 months after” the Houthi’s began their attacks on vessels transiting the region, Xeneta’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand told CNBC on Friday.

But for many, the real concern is that Iran follows through on its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz — potentially leading to the cutting off about 30% of the world’s daily oil supply and 20% of global LNG trade, according to a factsheet (pdf) by the International Energy Agency. Closing the strait and cutting off key energy exporters Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE from the global market has the potential to completely disrupt global energy supply chains and violently ramp up energy costs, making Egypt’s increased reliance on imported energy even more costly and increasing the risk of severe energy disruptions to the national grid.

“For now, this is a risk premium — owners will hold back from putting ships into the Gulf on a business-as-usual basis,” Oil Brokerage’s Global Head of Shipping Research Anoop Singh told the business news service. Several shipping carriers are expected to push for a “security surcharge” on ocean freight container shipping rates in the “coming days” amid “inevitable disruption and port congestion, as well as the potential for higher oil prices,” Sand said.

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