New medium-term targets set for the next four fiscal years: The government has laid out its targets starting from the upcoming fiscal year until FY 2028-2029, detailing its predictions for growth, employment, investment, and private sector participation, among other key facets of the economy, according to a document seen by EnterpriseAM.

The gov’t is optimistic about Egypt’s growth prospects: The Madbouly government expects GDP growth to come in at 4.5% in FY 2025-26, before rising further to 5.0% in FY 2026-27 and 6.0% by the end of its medium term plan in FY 2028-29, according to the document. At current price levels, GDP is targeted to reach EGP 30.1 tn in FY 2025-26, up from an expected EGP 25.5 in the current fiscal year, before rising further to EGP 47.3 tn by the end of FY 2028-29. This will come in tandem with an increase in per capita real GDP at a rate of approximately 3.0% in FY 2025-26, before reaching 4.5% in FY 2028-29.

This means more jobs: The document shows a target to increase the labor market’s capacity to provide about 900k new jobs annually during the next four fiscal years, with the unemployment rate continuing to decline to about 6.2% at the end of the medium-term period.

The government is also planning on increasing its national savings from 8.1% in FY 2025-26 to 15.5% at the end of FY 2028-29 and plans on raising the investment to GDP ratio to 17.1% in FY 2025-26, before having it rise further to 19.3% by FY 2028-29. The rate currently stands at 15% of GDP as of the current fiscal year.

The gov’t’s inflation target is less ambitious than it was previously: The government is now eyeing an inflation rate of 13% in the next fiscal year, before declining further to 10% by the end of FY 2028-29. This is down from the Central Bank of Egypt’s inflation target of 7.0% (±2 percentage points) for 4Q 2026.

More private sector participation is also in the cards: The private sector is expected to have a larger contribution to overall economic activity, with the government looking to increase the private sector’s contribution to overall investments to 68% by FY 2028-29, up from 63% in FY 2023-24. The government also plans to increase investments in priority sectors that include industry, tourism, and communications and information technology from about 40% to exceed 50% of total GDP in the final year of the medium-term plan.

FDI is set to be on the rise in the medium-term: Net foreign direct investments are expected to reach USD 42 bn in the upcoming fiscal year, before rising further to USD 55 bn in FY 2028-29, which is expected to be driven by increased interest from foreign investors in Egypt — particularly from Gulf countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Total private sector investment until June 2024 amounted to around EGP 2.4 tn — 75% of which came from local private sector players, 11% from Arab investors, and the remaining 14% coming from foreign contributions, the document reads.

Remittances from Egyptians residing abroad are expected to reach USD 35 bn in the upcoming fiscal year, before rising further to USD 45 bn in FY 2028-29, according to the document.

The country’s GDP is heavily impacted by the level of remittance inflows: Money sent from abroad is expected to have made up around 8% of the country’s entire GDP in 2024, up from 5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2022. In terms of current account inflows, Egyptians abroad sending FX home are expected to account for 35% of inflows in 2024, up from the 25% recorded the year prior, but still a long way off the 45% recorded in 2020.

The ceiling for public investment is set to rise during the period: The ceiling for public investments is set to rise slightly to EGP 1.1 tn in FY 2025-26, with a projected increase to EGP 1.8 tn in FY 2028-29, up from EGP 1 tn in the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, the state’s share in investments will decline to 32% from 43.7% in FY 2024-25.

The government also plans to up its targeted exports: The document showed a goal to lower the gap between exports and imports, with the government aiming to almost double merchandise exports to just under EGP 6.8 tn, up from EGP 3.4 tn, while imports are set to reach EGP 8 tn, up from EGP 5.2 tn in the current fiscal year.

Other goals include:

  • Reducing poverty rates to 29% by the end of FY 2025-26, and to 28% by the end of 2028-29, down from 33% in FY 2021-22;
  • Directing 55% of investments towards the green economy, with the goal of turning Egypt into a regional hub for green hydrogen in 2026;
  • Upping FX reserves to reach USD 52 bn by the end of FY 2028-29, compared to USD 47.4 bn in February 2025;
  • Lowering the population growth rate to 1.5% in FY 2025-26, and down to 1.4% by the end of FY 2028-29.
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