It’s too early to accurately assess the damage of Trump’s tariffs, IMF Executive Director and former Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told reporters yesterday as the global economic picture remains murky. However, early signs already show sharp declines in global financial markets, falling oil prices, and a weaker USD against a basket of currencies — that doesn’t include the EGP — Maait said, adding that some global banks now see a 60% probability of a recession, particularly in the US.

Maait noted that inflation could pick up, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts, he said. This could keep borrowing costs elevated for some time while also pushing up the cost of goods, slowing growth, and driving up unemployment. Global trade volumes could shrink by more than 1% as confidence in the current economic system falters and uncertainty continues to climb, he warned.

“The outlook for the short and medium term will depend largely on how other countries respond to this trade war — and how the US, in turn, responds to them,” Maait said. “We’ll have to wait and see how things unfold in the coming days.”

REMEMBER- The Trump administration’s blanket 10% tariff on all incoming goods came into effect on Saturday, with steeper rates — up to 49% — for 57 countries set to follow on 9 April. Egypt was hit with the baseline 10% tariff, escaping the harsher treatment expanded out to regional peers like Syria (41%), Iraq (39%), and Libya (31%).

But what could it all mean for local industries? The tariffs could present an unexpected chance for Egypt’s industrial base, particularly in manufacturing, as firms seek to sidestep higher duties by relocating operations to lower-tariff countries like Egypt. We have more on this in this week’s Inside Industry, which you can check out here.

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