The central bank’s MPC will meet to review rates today

Good morning, friends. We have another packed issue for you this morning to close out the week. In today’s issue we have Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly’s estimate of how long it would take to rebuild Gaza, news of the region’s first carbon capture project, and the breakdown of Moody’s affirming Egypt’s rating and outlook. We also spoke to Karen Weick, co-founder and president of the Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle, to learn more about her efforts to build a bridge between Egypt and Switzerland and her morning routine.

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is in for a windy day, with a high of 20°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.The capital could also be in for some light rain, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA).

Don’t let the few sunny days we’ve had trick you into thinking winter is almost over: Brace yourself for a cold snap starting Friday, with the EMA warning of temperatures dropping 3-4 degrees nationwide.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

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IN THE HOUSE-

The House’s Manpower Committee has signed off on the re-drafted labor law. The 267-article bill will now be sent to the House for a final vote.

REMEMBER- The government pulled the bill from the House of Representatives back in 2023 to be re-drafted after backlash from the business community, which said the original version was lopsided in favor of workers. Prior to the redraft, the bill would have introduced new labor rights, including legislating mandatory annual raises, caps on working hours, and longer maternity leave and notice periods, among other things. Labor unions have also had sharp criticism of the previous version of the bill.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s interest rate decision time for the central bank: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to meet today to decide on whether to cut interest rates, after having kept rates stable since its March hike that coincided with the float of the EGP. For its last six consecutive meetings, the overnight deposit rate has stood at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and discount rates at 27.75%.

Analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM were split on which way the MPC will go, with four out of nine surveyed analysts telling us that they expect the bank to cut interest rates between 100-200 basis points on the back of a strong positive base effect and slowing inflation. Three of the participants forecasted that the committee would hold rates, and the last two were on the wall for which way the bank would go.

Fitch Ratings has since put its forecast in the ring, with its prediction that the MPC will cut rates today, the firm said in a research note. The rating agency sees the CBE slashing rates 100-200 bps thanks to a dip in inflation. It also sees inflation falling to 10.6% by the middle of 2026 as currency stability proves resilient despite incoming price hikes.

#2- Today’s the day for the Innovate Together: Business Opportunities BetweenEgypt and Switzerland online event. Organized by the Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle and Kickstart Innovation, the event will gather startups, investors, and public and private players from both nations to explore potential joint business prospects.

SPEAKING OF- We sat down with Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle Co-Founder and President Karen Weick for today’s My Morning Routine. You can check out the interview in the news well, below.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Trump and Zelensky’s war of words is dominating the front pages this morning, as analysts fear it signals a dramatic shift in US foreign policy on Russia and a pivot away from the EU.

Move it or lose it: US President Donald Trump again slammed his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday for misusing USD 350 bn aid from the US, saying he “better move fast” on reaching an agreement with Russia, or the “dictator” — as Trump called him — might not have a nation to lead. Zelensky had remarked earlier in the day that the US president “is living in this disinformation space” created by the Kremlin. (Associated Press | Washington Post | Reuters | FT)

Trump’s executive orders are not slowing down: The president said on Tuesday he will impose tariffs on autos “in the neighborhood of 25%” on 2 April, as well as similar tariffs on semiconductors and pharma imports with no clear timeline. The White House announced more executive orders will be signed in a few hours. (Reuters | Washington Post)

OVER IN TECH- Microsoft is out with “Majorana 1,” its first quantum chip. The multinational giant claims it had to create a new state of matter called the “topological state” to develop the chip, whose components were manufactured in the US. (CNBC | NY Times)