Morgan Stanley’s two cents on Egypt’s economic outlook

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What We're Tracking Today

SCA’s Rabie pushes shipping companies to return to the Red Sea

Good morning, friends. We are kicking off the workweek with a busy issue packed with fresh M&A news, the details of El Sisi and Trump’s conversation, and Morgan Stanley’s two cents on Egypt’s economic outlook.

PSA-

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It’s just as cold in Alexandria, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C.

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The Mabdouly government is in talks to temporarily use Cyprus’ floating storage and regasification unit Etyfa Prometheus, according to industry publication Mees. Currently being tested in Malaysia, the unit could be lent to us for the short-term in exchange for certifying it, Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou said. With Cyprus’ own LNG import plans delayed until at least late 2025, the potential agreement could see Egypt using the vessel until Cyprus has a need for it, according to the report.

#2- Suez Canal Authority head Osama Rabie went on a charm offensive to persuade shipping lines to return to the canal, telling representatives of 23 leading companies in the field that “the current conditions in the Red Sea region are witnessing many positive indicators towards the start of stability returning to the region,” according to an authority statement.

Remember, traffic is picking up through the canal, albeit very slowly, with reports out last week that six US- and UK-linked ships passed through the Red Sea safely since 19 January, after Yemen’s Houthis announced they would only target Israeli-linked vessels following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. However, six ships is just a drop in the bucket when compared to traffic the canal was used to, with shipping giants Maersk, MSC, and Mitsui OSK still avoiding the Red Sea, citing security risks.

#3- Bukhamseen Group wants to acquire local tourism giant in USD 5 bn transaction: Kuwait’s Bukhamseen Group is planning to acquire one of Egypt’s largest tourism and hospitality investment companies in a USD 4.9 bn transaction, Al Mal reports without disclosing the identity of the sought after company. If the transaction comes about, it would mark one of the largest transactions in Egypt’s tourism industry,

Bukhamseen is no stranger to the Egyptian market: The group —- alongside the InterContinental Hotel Group — is one of the controlling shareholders in Maadi’s Holiday Inn.

NEWS TRIGGERS-

It’s the first workday of February — here are the key news triggers to keep your eyes on throughout the month:

Will non-oil private sector activity contract for a fifth consecutive month — or can we dare to be a bit hopeful? S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for January early on Tuesday, 4 February, measuring the country’s non-oil private sector activity. In December, non-oil private sector activity witnessed its deepest slump in eight months on the back of rising input costs and subdued demand.
Inflation to continue its steady decline to single digits? Capmas and the CBE are expected to publish inflation data for January early on Monday, 10 February. Annual urban inflation dropped 1.4 percentage points to 24.1% in December, marking a two-year low.
Foreign reserves to continue their rise? The CBE is expected to release January’s foreign reserves figures within the coming days. Reserves inched up to a fresh high of USD 47.1 bn in December, marking a USD 11.8 bn uptick in the 10 months since the government announced the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement.
Get ready for a whole lot of energy news, with the Egypt Energy Show set to be held on 17-19 February. Under the theme Building a Secure and Sustainable Energy Future, 47k attendees, 2.5k conference delegates, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibiting companies will come together to talk energy off and on the stage. EnterpriseAM will have its ears to the ground for all the major agreements and news to come out of the event.
To cut, or not to cut interest rates: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on 20 February to review interest rates. The CBE left rates unchanged when it last met in December — marking the sixth consecutive meeting to keep rates steady — but most analysts see the central bank starting to cut rates sometime this quarter.

FROM THE DEBT MARKETS-

Central Bank of Egypt to issue USD 1 bn in T-bills? The central bank is looking to raise USD 1 bn from auctioning off one-year USD-denominated treasury bills this week, unnamed sources tell Al Arabi ya

The issuance would coincide with a similar amount of T-bills set to mature next week, with a yield of 5.1%.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Trade wars begin: US President Donald Trump is once again dominating the conversation in the international press this morning, after delivering on his pledges to impose tariffs on top US trading partners yesterday.

Trump ordered 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and an additional 10% on imports from China as of Tuesday. Canadian energy products got a smaller duty at 10% in response to concerns of American refiners, while Mexican energy imports will be hit with the full 25%. Tariffs will be lifted when fentanyl and immigrants stop flowing into the US and “the crisis is alleviated,” the White House said in a statement.

Both Canada and Mexico vowed retaliatory tariffs, while Trump warned he will escalate tariffs in case of retaliation, and hinted at expanding them to include the EU, without specifying a timeline. The decision — affecting around USD 1.3 tn of imports — has sparked widespread fears of inflation spiralling out of control and businesses shutting down in the US and other countries. (Reuters | Bloomberg | NYT | CNBC)

CLOSER TO HOME- Hamas released three Israelis yesterday in exchange for 182 Palestinians, as the Gaza ceasefire agreement remains on track. This was the second exchange over the weekend, after Hamas exchanged three Israeli and five Thai nationals for 110 Palestinians on Thursday. The Rafah border crossing was also reopened for evacuating wounded Gazans from the strip for the first time since Israeli forces captured it nine months ago. (BBC | Associated Press | CNN)

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Morgan Stanley’s key takeaways on Egypt’s economic outlook

Morgan Stanley observed a sentiment of "cautious optimism" over Egypt’s economy among local stakeholders during its recent trip to Cairo, where its representatives met with policymakers and experts to gauge the overall economic outlook and compare it with the bank’s own forecasts across different sectors, according to a research note seen by EnterpriseAM.

The bank is more optimistic about inflation than local players: Morgan Stanley’s base case sees inflation reaching 14.5% by the end of 2025, slightly lower than the local market participants’ consensus of around 16-18%. The less optimistic forecast from locals is driven by concerns about the inflationary impact of additional fiscal measures — mainly additional energy price hikes — as well as a “potential removal of some VAT exemptions further down the road, as per IMF program requirements,” the report reads. Locals see the government carrying out two more fuel price hikes in 2025 for a cumulative adjustment of 20-30%.

The short-term inflation forecast: Local analysts see January inflation slowing marginally to 24%, aided by a “recent softness” in fruit and vegetable prices. As for February and March, stronger consumer demand for Ramadan is expected to accelerate monthly inflation, but strong base effects from last year will still push year-on-year inflation to drop to 14-15%, Morgan Stanley predicts.

Remember- Annual headline urban inflation fell to 24.1% in December of last year, down from 25.5% in November. This marked the nation’s lowest inflation reading since December 2022 when inflation recorded 21.3%. On a monthly basis, headline inflation also calmed, falling 0.3 percentage points to 0.2%.

Morgan Stanley forecasts significant rate cuts taking place this year: Morgan Stanley sees the Central Bank of Egypt cutting rates by 200 bps this month and expects the overnight deposit rate to stand at 17.25% by the end of the year — a 1k basis point decrease from where it is at today.

ICYMI- Goldman Sachs sees interest rates dropping to 13% by year-end, it said following its visit to Cairo last month.

Locals remain bullish on the EGP: “Greater FX flexibility compared to the past, and disinflation towards the mid-teens accompanied by gradual rate cuts, might accelerate de-dollarization in support of EGP. Most local market participants see USD-EGP moving in a range of 48-52 in the remainder of the year.” This is a far cry from what local participants told Goldman Sachs during its visit to Cairo, with local experts penciling in predictions of the exchange rate reaching EGP 59/USD by the end of the year.

Current account deficit expected to remain high despite calming geopolitical tensions: Locals see the current account deficit remaining high due to several factors that include a higher energy deficit, as well as uncertainty over how fast Suez Canal transit will resume — the timeline for which remains unclear, despite an apparent de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Morgan Stanley projects the current account deficit for this fiscal year to reach USD 18 bn, up from its previous forecast of USD 14.2 bn. The revised forecast is at the lower end of local analysts' estimates, which range between USD 18-20 bn.

Refresher- Egypt’s current account deficit more than doubled in 1Q FY 2024-2025, reaching USD 5.9 bn compared to USD 2.8 bn recorded during the same period last fiscal year thanks to a sharp increase in the trade deficit and a significant decline in Suez Canal revenues.

The deficit is expected to be fully funded: Factors such as “good momentum in FDI supported by regional partners, a multilateral funding pipeline (including support from the IMF, EU, and the World Bank) and the potential for further portfolio inflows” have prompted expectations from local experts that Egypt’s current account deficit will be fully funded in the near future. Meanwhile, tourism revenues and remittances picking up again have helped support Egypt’s FX inflows.

Remittances expected to recover to pre-2022 levels: Morgan Stanley forecasts USD 32 bn in inflows from workers residing abroad in FY 2024-25 (amounting to around USD 8 bn per quarter), exceeding pre-2022 levels.

Remember- The first five months of the current fiscal year saw a 77% y-o-y rise in remittances to USD 13.8 bn, while inflows in the first 11 months of 2024 rose 47.1% y-o-y to USD 26.3 bn. Remittances are expected to make up 8% of the country’s entire GDP in 2024, up from 5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2022.

The bank also sees the tourism sector making a recovery, with tourism revenues expected to sit at USD 15 bn by the end of FY 2024-2025, before rising to USD 15.5 bn in the following fiscal year, aided by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine, as well as increased investment in hotel capacity and tourism infrastructure.

The drop in commercial banks’ net foreign asset position may be temporary: The drop in commercial banks’ net foreign assets near the end of last year may be down to “some profit-taking by foreign investors into year-end, and a temporary mismatch between FX inflows and outflows amid large payments of debt arrears,” local market participants told Morgan Stanley.

“What happened in commercial banks in December is not a concerning phenomenon — in some cases, it can even be a healthy one,” banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal told us. “It’s an indication that the facilitations approved by foreign correspondents for Egyptian commercial banks have been consumed — indicating that there’s been commercial activity in settling letters of credit and movement in foreign trade financing. Additionally, the exit of foreign investors from public debt securities (hot money) contributed to the deficit — but this is a dynamic market that fluctuates throughout the year. Ultimately, the final safety net is that it remains backed by net reserves at the CBE,” Abdel Aal explained.

ENERGY DEFICIT WILL STAY FOR SOME TIME-

The energy balance will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future: Local analysts expect Egypt's energy balance to remain in deficit during FY 2024-2025 and FY 2025-2026, which the report attributes to lower gas production amid higher local demand. However, policy measures such as clearing arrears owed to foreign energy companies, providing incentives for investment in explorations and new fields, and increasing the share of renewables in power generation have prompted some local experts to see Egypt returning to being a net exporter of LNG starting 2027, according to the report.

Some see this happening even sooner: Others see Egypt re-entering the LNG export market in 2026 instead of 2027 as previously planned due to new oil and gas discoveries — including the recently discovered Nefertari well in the North Marakia area — and the implementation of the Cypriot gas liquefaction agreement, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM. The Nefertari well is expected to come online soon, while drilling is set to begin across three new development wells in the Zohr gas field, the source added.

More oil discoveries could be just around the corner: Energy companies are currently conducting seismic surveys in new areas of the Western Mediterranean based on directives from the Oil Ministry. In addition, the government launched gas exploration and production tenders for 12 new concession areas, which are expected to yield further discoveries, our source added.

Egypt is unlikely to become energy-sufficient until 2027 or 2028, the source said, adding that the expansion of renewable energy projects could significantly change this outlook.

Remember-Italian energy giant Eni resumed drilling operations at the Zohr gas field — Egypt’s and the Mediterranean's largest — after the Saipem drillship arrived in Egyptian waters last week. Drilling activity is expected to proceed through 1Q 2025.

Not everyone is as optimistic on the energy front: Industry players told Goldman Sachs that they remain doubtful that production can return to previous highs without any significant discoveries, leading to a general view that the energy deficit will remain significant for the medium term.

Remember: The Madbouly government reportedly cleared up USD 1 bn in arrears owed to foreign oil companies in the first week of January. A new schedule to settle the accumulated USD 6.5 bn arrears had been agreed with companies, with repayments set to run from this month until June 2025. The Oil Ministry is also offering incentives to energy players, including increasing production-sharing ratios with foreign companies in exchange for new investments, enhancing exploration efforts, and increasing extraction rates with the aim of boosting local production.

The macro outlook, on the whole, appears positive: “The FX unification in March, a multilateral funding pipeline and a reform agenda under the IMF program have put Egypt on a viable path to macro stabilization in the medium term, in our view,” the bank said, adding that this — coupled with stronger coordination between the Finance Ministry, the CBE, and cabinet members — has collectively “improved locals' confidence in the policy mix … The IMF Board's approval of the fourth review is seen as imminent.”

El Sisi, Trump talk Gaza ceasefire, economic relations

El Sisi, Trump discuss Gaza, cooperation: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi spoke over the phone with US President Donald Trump yesterday, during which the two discussed “critical importance of advancing the implementation of the first and second phases of the ceasefire agreement,” according to an Ittihadiya statement. They also discussed the need for increased humanitarian aid delivery.

No mention of the elephant in the room: Ittihadiya didn’t mention if the two leaders touched on Trump’s calls for Egypt to open its doors for Palestinians currently residing in Gaza. Last week, Trump proposed that the masses of displaced Palestinians be pushed into Egypt and Jordan in an effort to “clean out” Gaza — the proposal was strongly rejected by the Egyptian and Jordanian sides.

Also discussed: The two leaders touched on the need to boost economic and investment relations and water security cooperation. El Sisi invited Trump to visit Egypt for further discussions as well as to participate in the inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum, scheduled for 3 July. Trump also invited El Sisi to visit Washington and hold in-person meetings at the White House.

The international press took note of the news: Reuters.

IN OTHER DIPLOMACY NEWS-

Egypt hosts regional foreign ministers to discuss Gaza: Foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Palestine met in Cairo yesterday alongside the Arab League Secretary General to discuss the situation in Gaza, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. The ministers emphasized their support of the ceasefire agreement and the exchange of hostages, stressing the need for Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza and the entrance of humanitarian aid. The meeting called for urgent efforts to rebuild Gaza and ensure Palestinians can stay on their land.

More meetings to come: Egypt, in partnership with the UN, plans to host a conference centered around the reconstruction of Gaza and urged international donors to step up. The ministers expressed support for the international conference on Palestine being co-hosted by Saudi Arabia and France in June 2025.

AND- El Sisi congratulated Syria's new interim president Ahmed Al Sharaa after the now-former leader of Hayat Al Tahrir Al Sham was appointed to the position by a council of armed factions Wednesday, according to an Ittihadeya statement. “I extend my congratulations to Mr. Ahmed Al Sharaa on assuming the presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic during the transitional period, and I wish him success in achieving the Syrian people's aspirations for further progress and prosperity,” El Sisi said.

Some corner of the international press also picked up the statement: Reuters.

El Attal Holding eyes EGX listing in 3Q 2025

El Attal Holding has become the latest local real estate player to announce its intention to go public in 2025, with the developer planning to list some 28% of its shares on the EGX in 3Q 2025, Al Borsa reports, citing the company’s Chairman Ahmed El Attal.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

El Attal tapped CI Capital to manage the offering and is already at work to fulfill all the necessary requirements ahead of the listing, he told the news outlet.

This isn’t the first time we hear about the offering, as Al Attal said in July that his company was planning to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX in 2025, noting that the developer was coordinating with advisors from the UK and Greece to set up the offering.

There’s a big appetite from investors for real estate companies on the EGX, thinks Tarek Abdel Rahman, CEO of fellow local real estate player Bonyan, which is also planning on debuting on the exchange this year. "Real estate is underrepresented on the EGX, despite contributing 18.5% to GDP over the past decade,” Abdel Rahman said last week at a press conference attended by EnterpriseAM.

CIRA Education, Mashreq Bank report earnings

Earnings for 2024 and the start of the academic year are beginning to roll in, with CIRA Education and Mashreq Bank out with their latest financials.

CIRA EDUCATION REPORTS RISE IN REVENUES, NET INCOME-

CIRA Education reported 87% y-o-y increase in net income in the three-month period ending 30 November, to record EGP 181.7 mn, the leading private-sector education company said in its latest earnings release (pdf). The company’s net income margin rose 4.1 percentage points to 17.9% throughout the same period, which CEO Mohamed El Kalla attributed to “efforts to maximize efficiencies across the group and keep a tight grip on costs.”

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Revenues increased 44% y-o-y during the three-month period, totaling EGP 1.02 bn, backed by an uptick in enrollment rates in its higher education, K-12, and nursery businesses.

CIRA’s higher education platform continued to drive growth, with revenues from its universities and associated operations increasing 56% y-o-y. The release noted higher enrollment at its Badr University in Cairo and in Assiut campuses, in addition to the launch of Saxony Egypt University, which together generated EGP 623.1 mn in tuition revenue. Its K-12 segment saw revenues increase 25% y-o-y to EGP 328.7 mn, which the release puts down mainly to higher tuition revenues and rising enrollment.

CIRA has plenty in store for the years ahead: “I am happy to report that we are inching closer to obtaining the necessary certifications to launch our new Advanced Sci-Tech International Hub in Damietta, which is on track for inauguration in 2026. Additionally, a new Seneca International campus in East Cairo, dedicated to the tech industry, will come online once we obtain the necessary approvals,” said El Kalla.

MASHREQ SEES NET INCOME RISE THROUGHOUT 2024-

Our friends at Mashreq saw their net income reach AED 9 bn in 2024, marking a 3.9% y-o-y increase, according to the bank’s financial statements (pdf). Net income before tax was up 12% y-o-y to AED 9.9 bn. The bank’s operating income for the period rose 24.2% y-o-y to AED 13.4 bn.

The lender’s total assets rose 11.4% y-o-y to AED 267.5 bn by the end of last year, with loans and advances growing 18% y-o-y. Meanwhile, customer deposits increased by 10% y-o-y to AED 160.9 bn.

The bank attributed the solid performance to diversified income streams, including strong client engagement in FX, derivatives, and commodities, with non-interest income up 63% y-o-y at AED 5 bn, according to the lender’s earnings release (pdf).

What they said: “This year, we achieved phenomenal growth across several markets, including India, Hong Kong, and the GCC,” Group CEO Ahmed Abdelaal said. “Our entry into Pakistan, where we became the first bank to secure a restricted pilot license for digital retail banking, represents a significant milestone in our journey to foster financial inclusion. Additionally, the launch of Mashreq Neo in Egypt further solidifies our leadership in innovation and customer-centric solutions.”

Veritas Debate League launches with inaugural high school tournament in Cairo

We have a rare Sunday Morning Kudos for you today as we take a moment to recognize the Veritas Debate League, which held its inaugural high-school tournament in Cairo this weekend at Hayah International Academy. More than 100 participants were on hand from eight schools. The American International School Main team of Angie Saifeldin and Gemma Saifeldin were the champions.

What’s Veritas? The high-school debate league is the brainchild of EnterpriseAM reader Bryan Cory (LinkedIn), a former White & Case partner who is now general counsel at Mediterranean Energy Partners. Bryan was a top-eight high-school debater in the United States who coached at UCLA and Stanford camps in summers and went on to Harvard for law school. He’s been in Cairo since 2021.

Why are we so excited? It’s the first tournament of its kind in Egypt that we know of. Bryan is a self-described “one-man band” who pulled together the tourney with support from his wife and a few friends — and we’re all for anything that gets kids away from screens and debating ideas face-to-face.

What’s next? Bryan is looking to run two more tournaments and a summer camp this school year — and aims to pull together an Egyptian national team.

Eight schools sent teams to this weekend’s tourney:

Hayah International Academy
American International School West
American International School Main
Futures Schools
Forsan American School
Kayan International College
The International School of Elite Education
GEMS British International School Madinaty

Want to learn more or get involved? Bryan is looking for help and for sponsors. Just reply to this email asking for an introduction and we’ll put you in touch.

HSBC names Farah Farooq as new comms head for MENAT

HSBC welcomes a new comms head for the region: HSBC appointed Farah Farooq (LinkedIn) as its new head of communications for the MENA region and Turkey, according to a statement from the bank. Farooq boasts over two decades of experience in financial services. She rose through HSBC’s ranks for almost 14 years, having served in the lender’s communications department across the Middle East and Europe.

AND- Microsoft taps new EMEA head: Microsoft has appointed Samer Abu-Ltaif (LinkedIn) as president of Microsoft Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), succeeding Ralph Haupter, who will now lead Microsoft’s SMEs and channel partner organization, according to a company statement. Abu-Ltaif, formerly president of Microsoft Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa, brings over 34 years of experience in technology and business development to the role. He will oversee operations in over 120 countries, focusing on AI-driven digital transformation and sustainable growth.

PLUS- Canon named Shinichi 'Sam' Yoshida (Linkedin) as president and CEO for Canon Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), according to a statement (pdf) from the Japanese multinational. The news follows former Canon EMEA CEO Yuichi Ishizuka’s retirement after seven years at the helm. Yoshida previously served as executive vice president and general manager of the marketing strategy unit and CEO of Canon Solutions America and Canon Financial Services.

El Sisi’s phone call with Trump was the main focus on the airwaves last night

One topic dominated the talk shows last night: The nation’s talking heads all dedicated airtime to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and US President Donald Trump’s phone call, which saw them discuss the situation in Gaza and economic relations.

READ MORE- We have full coverage of the phone call between the two leaders in the news well, above.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

El Hadidi weighs in: The statements issued post-phone call are a sign that tensions have de-escalated following a tense few days triggered by Trump’s call to clean out Gaza and push displaced Palestinians into Egypt and Jordan, Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi said (watch, runtime: 9:33). She adds that there is now a shift in the US’ approach, moving away from threats and leaving room for discussion.

"The statements were positive, reflecting the success of Egypt’s policy in clearly and firmly defining its stance while keeping channels of dialogue open toward peace," writer and political analyst Abdel Moneim Said told El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 9:58).

The phone call also drew attention from El Hekaya’s Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 40:09) and Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 20:33).

Egypt's rare wildlife makes headlines in the international press

In pleasantly non-conflict related news, a spotted hyena showing up in Egypt after a 5k-year absence is putting Egypt under the limelight, with the New York Times picking up the story. The first sighting of a spotted hyena in Egypt — in the Gebel Elba area to the north of our borders with Sudan — in five millennia was very brief as local villagers killed the spotty animal after it attacked their livestock. The sighting was so unexpected that Abdullah Nagy, a zoologist at Al Azhar University in Cairo, initially thought he was being pranked when he received a video of the animal.

The NYT's coverage examines the scientific significance of the discovery: The publication reports that while Egypt is home to striped hyenas and aardwolves, spotted hyenas had disappeared from the country thousands of years ago as the climate became more arid. Recent wet periods in the typically dry region may have created conditions that allowed the hyena to venture some 300 miles north of its nearest known population in Sudan, according to Nagy and his colleagues, who published their findings in the journal Mammalia.

Private equity firm RMBV plans to invest USD 100 mn in Egypt in 2025

INVESTMENT

RMBV eyes increasing Egypt portfolio in 2025: Private equity firm RMBV plans to invest USD 100 mn in Egypt in 2025 to acquire minority stakes in four-five midsized companies, the company’s Managing Partner Ahmed Badreldin told Asharq Business. The firm is particularly interested in investments in the industrial sector, with a focus on food production, medical tourism, and businesses that specialize in exports or import substitution.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

LOGISTICS

Enter, Egytrans Arabia: EGX-listed transport and logistics company Egytrans and Saudi Arabia-based Links Investments launched a new shipping company — Egytrans Arabia — headquartered in Riyadh, the newly formed JV said in a state ment. “As we step into year 2025, our headquarters will serve as a central hub for delivering world-class logistics services and strengthening industry partnerships,” the statement read.

This isn’t the first time we heard about the partnership: The two companies first announced their plan to launch the company back in December 2023.

Look out for more Egytrans expansion news to come: “Even if we are a local company, we really see ourselves becoming a regional leader and competing with the big multinational transport and logistics companies,” Egytrans’ CEO Abir Leheta previously told EnterpriseAM. Egytrans Arabia is part of the parent company’s “first steps to grow regionally,” she added.

RENEWABLES-

ASORC breaks ground on EU-funded solar project: State-owned Assiut Oil Refining Company (ASORC) has broken ground on its EGP 550 mn, 10 MW solar power project, according to an Oil Ministry statement. The plant is expected to cover 10% of the company’s annual electricity consumption.

Refresher: The project is one of two EU-funded solar power plants worth over EGP 1 bn that the Madbouly government announced last year. State-owned petroleum-focused contractors Enppi and Petrojet were tapped to carry out the project at the time.

Wastewater recycling project in the pipeline: The company plans to roll out an industrial wastewater recycling project that will save 2 mn cubic meters of water annually and reduce operating costs by USD 1.5 mn, according to the statement.

M&A WATCH-

An Emirati firm to acquire majority stake in BMIC: An unnamed Emirati company has submitted an offer to acquire a controlling stake in indebted Building Materials Industry Company (BMIC) in exchange for settling its EGP 4 bn in outstanding debts, Al Shorouk reports citing unnamed sources.

HOSPITALITY-

Hilton opens new Nile-front hotel in Maadi: Global hospitality giant Hilton opened the Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi overlooking the Nile, according to a press release (pdf). The 255-room development, located in Cairo's Maadi, offers modern amenities and dining facilities for both leisure and business travelers.

Part of a larger expansion plan: Hilton is working on tripling its presence in the local market by opening 25 new hotels nationwide — part of a larger goal for Hilton to have 40 hotels operating in Egypt over the coming years.

STARTUPS-

IFC mulls USD 6 mn investment in Africa Seed Fund: The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is looking into investing USD 6 mn in the Africa Seed Fund, Flat6Labs’s Africa-focused seed fund, according to an IFC disclosure. The fund supports early-stage startups across Africa, with 49% of its investments directed towards Egypt. IFC’s board is scheduled to vote on the investment on 31 May.

Remember: Flat6Labs launched the USD 85 mn seed fund in 2023 to invest in startups across East, West, and North Africa.

HEALTHCARE-

Burjeel set to improve bone marrow transplant accessibility in Egypt: The UAE’s Burjeel Holdings will establish a bone marrow transplant unit in Egypt under an MoU signed with the Health Ministry, reads a company press release. The project will be led by Burjeel Medical City and supported by Burjeel Cancer Institute.

ICYMI- Ras El Hekma master developer and Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ portfolio company Modon Holding tapped Burjeel to develop healthcare facilities and collaborate on public health programs in the USD 35 bn project.

European Central Bank cuts rates amid stalled growth

The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 bps to 2.75% at the end of last week, its fifth straight cut, as it pivots from fighting inflation to tackling sluggish growth, it said in a statement. The eurozone economy has been struggling — Germany and France’s economies shrank in 4Q 2024, Italy’s flatlined, and Spain managed 0.8% growth, Reuters reports.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Analysts saw this coming: A rate cut “should be an easy decision,” European economist at BofA Global Research Evelyn Herrmann told Bloomberg ahead of the ECB’s rate cut, adding that “after that, things could get more interesting and possibly more controversial.” Markets are pricing in at least three more cuts this year, with a terminal rate near 2%.

The rationale: Policymakers say rising real incomes and fading monetary restrictions should boost demand, but weak exports, shrinking industry, and cautious consumers could deepen the slowdown. “Uncertainty is weighing on growth in the here and now in Europe,” PGIM’s Katharine Neiss told Bloomberg, citing trade war fears.

The ECB isn’t worried about inflation: While inflation ticked up to 2.4% in December, the ECB believes it’s “well on track” to return to target, pointing to easing wage growth and softer demand.

How far will the cuts go? At 2.75%, rates are already nearing the estimated “neutral” range of 1.75%-2.50%. Policymakers are divided; Greece’s Yannis Stournaras backs a 2% rate by mid-year, but hawks like the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot warn that the ECB is nearing its limit. The central bank signaled it will take a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.”

Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty: The ECB’s move comes after the US Fed held rates steady last week, with Chair Jerome Powell flagging uncertainty under President Donald Trump. Analysts warn that new tariffs on European exports could stall growth and force the ECB to act more aggressively, even as high services prices, rising energy costs, and weak productivity pose fresh inflation risks.

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THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.5 bn (18.3% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 0.9% YTD.

In the green: Heliopolis Housing (+3.5%), Madinet Masr (+3.0%), and ADIB (+2.7%).

In the red: Oriental Weavers (-3.0%), Egypt Kuwait Holding -EGP (-2.4%), and B Investments (-2.0%).

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

23 January- 5 February (Thursday-Wednesday): Cairo International Book Fair, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, Cairo

29 January - 8 February (Wednesday-Saturday): Business Ya Shabab exhibition, Cairo Stadium

10 February (Monday): The Economic Forum for Industry and Investment.

13-17 February (Thursday-Monday): The 10th Annual Conference of the Businesswomen of Egypt 21 Association, the Arab League HQ, Cairo.

17 February: (Monday): Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides will visit Egypt to sign agreements to transport Cypriot gas to Egypt to be liquefied and exported.

17-19 February (Monday-Wednesday): EGYPES Technical Conference, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

18-19 February (Saturday-Sunday): German-Egyptian Joint Economic Committee meetings, Cairo, Egypt

20 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee's first meeting.

BP to bring the second well of its Raven natural gas project online, with additional production capacity expected.

Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to bring total investments in the Pyramids Plateau to EGP 1.5 bn.

Subscription period for Your Home in Egypt initiative opens.

MARCH

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer

Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

Alwaad Investment to inaugurate a new cold beverage plant with an annual production capacity of 14.5 mn units.

Al Ahly Sabbour to finalize preparations for its EGX listing, offering 20-25% of its shares, with an advisor to be tapped in early 2025.

March-April 2025: The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains from EGX transactions.

APRIL

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit launches 9th edition, Red Sea

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

MAY

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will submit technical and financial bids for Cairo Metro Line 6

JUNE

June 2025: MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

June 2025: Nissan and Honda finalise talks about possible merger to create the world’s third largest automobile company by sales.

June 2025: Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

July 2025: Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

July 2025: Israel to begin increasing gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

August 2025: Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

September 2025: Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

September 2025: Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

25 December 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

December 2025: Taqa Arabia and Voltalia to complete studies for repowering the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2025: ADQ to break ground on the development of Ras El Hekma

Early 2025: Al Ismaelia to begin working on two new hotels and hotel apartments in Downtown Cairo.

Early 2025: The Communications Ministry will unveil the second edition of its national AI strategy in early 2025

Early 2025: The Suez Canal Authority to launch an IPO for the Canal Company for Mooring and Lights (CCML) on the EGX.

Early 2025: Orange Egypt to launch 5G services, with EGP 10 bn planned for network upgrades.

Early 2025: BP to begin drilling at the King Mariout Offshore concession.

Early 2025: Jinbei Royal Egypt to begin local assembly of 3k Jinbei vehicles, including the country’s first electric cargo van and microbus

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

1Q 2025: Egypt to sign trade agreements with Bahrain and UAE to slash customs clearance times

1Q 2025: Government to launch EUR 271 mn green industry program to cut emissions

1Q 2025: Egypt-Azerbaijan joint committee to meet to bolster trade and investment ties

1Q 2025: Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association and Turkish Contractors Association to visit Egypt following an invitation from the Investment Minister

1Q 2025: One of four companies, including Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, and a Saudi-affiliated firm, to be selected for the USD 450 mn redevelopment of Delta Fertilizers

1Q 2025: GV Auto to begin local production of FAW Group’s cheapest EV model.

1Q 2025: Alkan Auto to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market.

1Q 2025: Dynamic Distribution to launch a new competitively-priced Fiat model in Egypt.

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta.

1Q 2025: Port Said for Engineering Works to begin construction on a USD 80 mn aluminum foil factory in the SCZone, targeting initial production of 60k tons annually.

1Q 2025: Pearl Polyurethane Systems to start production at its EGP 100 mn polyurethane factory in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

1Q 2025: Sumitomo Electric to officially open its EUR 22 mn cable factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with production set to begin next month.

1Q 2025: Construction of the USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession to wrap up, followed by a pilot run.

1Q 2025: El Araby Group and Sharp to break ground on a USD 50 mn fridge and freezer manufacturing plant in the Quweisna zone.

1Q 2025: Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods to begin production at its USD 50 mn factory in the West Qantara Industrial Zone

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports' Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: EgyptSat Auto to start production at its EV factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Natco to launch Chinese firm Neta Auto’s EV models.

1H 2025: OCI Global to complete the sale of its entire methanol business to Methanex for USD 2.05 bn.

1H 2025: Egypt and the UAE to begin construction of a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone at Al Hamra Port

1H 2025: HoldiPharma to list 25-30% stakes in Misr Pharma and Chemical Industries Development (CID) on the EGX

1H 2025: Korra Energi to list up to 20% stake on the EGX

1H 2025: Smart Villages Development and Management Company plans to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

1H 2025: Halliburton to bring three gas wells online as part of the Burullus project.

1H 2025: Chevron to begin gas production from the offshore Nargis gas field, initially producing 600 mn cf.

1H 2025: Nile Recycling to launch USD 20 mn PET recycling facility in Ain Sokhna, targeting an annual capacity of 22k tons and reducing carbon emissions by 40k tons

3Q 2025: AMEA Power to bring 500 MW Amunet wind farm online in Ras Ghareb

4Q 2025: Abou Ghaly Motors to introduce the Subaru Solterra to the market

4Q 2025: Two new projects in food manufacturing and home textiles to begin operations in the Qantara West Industrial Zone

2H 2025: National Printing Company to make its EGX debut after delayed IPO plans

2H 2025: Tabarak Holding to list 30% of its shares on the EGX

2H 2025: Turkish apparel company Denim Rise to open a garment manufacturing facility

2H 2024: Hi-Tech Apparel to break ground on a USD 20 mn sportswear factory in the SCZone

2H 2025: Eni to drill two new wells in the Zohr field with USD 160 mn in investments

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

Mid-2025: SN Automotive to launch three locally assembled models — one electric and two gasoline-powered — in Egypt

Mid-2025: Suez’s USD 1.8 bn coal and diesel production complex, developed by Enppi and Petrojet, to be completed

Mid-2025: Wataneya and Safi to debut on the EGX

End of 2025: The Egypt Digital Industrial Platform will expand to include additional services for manufacturers, including the issuance of licenses, building permits, and industrial records

End of 2025: An unnamed Chinese company and the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to begin production at a USD 360 mn tire factory in the SCZone.

End of 2025: A consortium including Redcon Properties and Al Baraka Bank to launch a local real estate investment fund with over EGP 1 bn in initial investments

Late 2025: Baron Hotels to open a new hotel in Sharm El Sheikh and debut its first international property in Zanzibar with 150 luxury suites

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2025: Nafeza to integrate air cargo into its digital customs platform, further streamlining trade logistics

2025: Africa50 completes 42.9% stake acquisition in Raya Data Centers for USD 15 mn to fund construction of a USD 35 mn Tier III data center.

2025: MM Group for Industry and International Trade is set to launch 16 new Tata vehicle models locally.

2025: China to issue USD 411 bn in special treasury bonds

2025: El Attal Holding to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) to launch its EGX debut, offering 5-10% of its shares.**

2025: Basata Holding for Financial Investments to offer 25% stake on the EGX as part of a plan to double its capital to EGP 1.4 bn.**

2025: Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi to open early in the year, alongside debuts of Tapestry Collection and Curio Collection by Hilton.

2025: Palm Hills and Marriott to launch The Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Cairo, featuring 150 branded units across 45 acres

2025: Jaz Hotel Group to set up two new hotels in North Coast, two in Hurghada, and two in Marsa Alam

2025: Sunrise Resorts & Cruises to add 4k hotel rooms to its hotels capacity.

2025: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) to complete studies and kick off production of Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

2025: Polaris Parks to begin development of the industrial park in New October City

2025: EgyptAlum to launch a USD 100 mn foil production line with a 50k-ton annual capacity

2025: Honor to begin operations at its proposed smartphone manufacturing facility in Egypt, with an initial investment of USD 10 mn

2025: Indorama and Phosphate Misr to begin implementation of the USD 400-500 mn phosphate fertilizers plant in Ain Sokhna

FY 2025-26: Egypt to issue its first EGP-denominated sovereign sukuk to finance public investments outside the general budget

FY 2025-26: The government to begin introducing cash-based subsidies on a trial basis in select areas of the country

2025-2027: EUR 4 bn in concessional loans to follow as part of a EUR 7.4 bn package

2026

Baron Hotels to launch two hotels in Egypt with 950 rooms, followed by another with 750 rooms.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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