Good afternoon folks, and happy Thursday. Read on for all the latest — and have a good weekend.
THE BIG STORY TODAY
#1- Another big dip in inflation augurs well for a CBE rate cut in 1Q: Annual headline urban inflation fell 1.4 percentage points to 24.1% in December, marking inflation’s second drop in two months and Egypt’s lowest inflation reading since December 2022, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Food and beverage price inflation — the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation — fell 4.3 percentage points throughout the month to an annual rate of 20.3%.
We saw this coming: The fall in inflation was in line with expectations, with a Reuters poll of13 analysts projecting that inflation would fall to 24.2% in December — just 0.1 percentage point off the official figure. The new data bolster the case for beginning to unwind interest rates in 1Q — something the Central Bank of Egypt has said it will only begin once “a significant and sustained decline in inflation” materializes.
#2- China’s Asia-Potash eyes a USD 1.6 bn fertilizer complex in Upper Egypt: China’s Asia-Potash International Investment is planning to establish a phosphate fertilizer production complex in Egypt with investments of USD 1.6 bn in the first phase and between USD 7-10 bn across all phases, according to a General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI) statement.
The details: The project, which will be established between the cities of Esna and Al Sibaiyya in Luxor and Aswan governorates, will see 2 mn tons of phosphate produced annually in its first phase, with production set to rise to 10 mn tons once all phases are complete. All of the complex’s production will be earmarked for export to neighboring markets.
#3- SIC amends CIRA Education MTO: CIRA Education majority shareholder Social Impact Capital (SIC) has amended its mandatory tender offer (MTO) to buy up to 100% of CIRA Education’s shares, with the Public Investment Fund-backed vehicle now offering a price-per-share of EGP 15.5, up from EGP 15.0 previously, according to a Financial Regulatory Authority statement (pdf).
The amendment also canceled a clause that stipulates the voluntary delisting of CIRA’s shares within two years of the acquisition’s execution, with the company subsequently lowering its purchase offer to buy up to 90% of CIRA’s shares — approximately 226 mn shares by our math. The revised share price and new 90% target bring the total value of the transaction to up to EGP 3.5 bn by our math, down from EGP 4.26 bn previously.
(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)
THE BIG STORY ABROAD
It’s another busy day in the global press, with int’l headlines continuing to be dominated by the Los Angeles fires that have now displaced over 100k people.
Lebanon looks set to select Joseph Aoun as the country’s first president since October 2022 today, after Hezbollah’s preferred candidate Suleiman Frangieh withdrew his candidacy and threw his support behind the Lebanese army chief. While Hezbollah has long held reservations about an Aoun presidency, three sources speaking to Reuters suggested that enough lawmakers were expected to back Aoun’s candidacy for him to reach the 86-vote threshold required for him to win office.
Elsewhere in the world, a two-day bond selloff in the UK has pushed yields on the country’s 30-year bonds to a 26-year high, adding to concerns about the incumbent Labour government’s planned public spending and tax hikes. On the other side of the pond, US president Joe Biden has announced a new — and presumably his final — set of restrictions on the export of US-made semiconductor chips.
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** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:
- The long-awaited Banque du Caire stake sale could soon be kicking into gear: Banque Misr is preparing to appoint an advisor for the offering of its subsidiary Banque du Caire.
- Stay tuned for important privatization updates “in the next few days”: The government will soon announce a timeline for the year’s privatization targets.
- The government has its sights set on tackling the backlog of dues owed to exporters, with the Finance Ministry and the Investment Ministry announcing a new mechanism to clear EGP 60 bn in overdue payments to exporters through the Export Development Fund.
☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re expecting slightly cooler weather in the capital tomorrow, with the mercury capping off at 21°C in the morning and 11°C at night. Our favorite weather app is also telling us to look out for rain on this cloudy day.





