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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Inflation continues its downward trend in December

Good afternoon folks, and happy Thursday. Read on for all the latest — and have a good weekend.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

#1- Another big dip in inflation augurs well for a CBE rate cut in 1Q: Annual headline urban inflation fell 1.4 percentage points to 24.1% in December, marking inflation’s second drop in two months and Egypt’s lowest inflation reading since December 2022, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Food and beverage price inflation — the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation — fell 4.3 percentage points throughout the month to an annual rate of 20.3%.

We saw this coming: The fall in inflation was in line with expectations, with a Reuters poll of13 analysts projecting that inflation would fall to 24.2% in December — just 0.1 percentage point off the official figure. The new data bolster the case for beginning to unwind interest rates in 1Q — something the Central Bank of Egypt has said it will only begin once “a significant and sustained decline in inflation” materializes.


#2- China’s Asia-Potash eyes a USD 1.6 bn fertilizer complex in Upper Egypt: China’s Asia-Potash International Investment is planning to establish a phosphate fertilizer production complex in Egypt with investments of USD 1.6 bn in the first phase and between USD 7-10 bn across all phases, according to a General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI) statement.

The details: The project, which will be established between the cities of Esna and Al Sibaiyya in Luxor and Aswan governorates, will see 2 mn tons of phosphate produced annually in its first phase, with production set to rise to 10 mn tons once all phases are complete. All of the complex’s production will be earmarked for export to neighboring markets.


#3- SIC amends CIRA Education MTO: CIRA Education majority shareholder Social Impact Capital (SIC) has amended its mandatory tender offer (MTO) to buy up to 100% of CIRA Education’s shares, with the Public Investment Fund-backed vehicle now offering a price-per-share of EGP 15.5, up from EGP 15.0 previously, according to a Financial Regulatory Authority statement (pdf).

The amendment also canceled a clause that stipulates the voluntary delisting of CIRA’s shares within two years of the acquisition’s execution, with the company subsequently lowering its purchase offer to buy up to 90% of CIRA’s shares — approximately 226 mn shares by our math. The revised share price and new 90% target bring the total value of the transaction to up to EGP 3.5 bn by our math, down from EGP 4.26 bn previously.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD

It’s another busy day in the global press, with int’l headlines continuing to be dominated by the Los Angeles fires that have now displaced over 100k people.

Lebanon looks set to select Joseph Aoun as the country’s first president since October 2022 today, after Hezbollah’s preferred candidate Suleiman Frangieh withdrew his candidacy and threw his support behind the Lebanese army chief. While Hezbollah has long held reservations about an Aoun presidency, three sources speaking to Reuters suggested that enough lawmakers were expected to back Aoun’s candidacy for him to reach the 86-vote threshold required for him to win office.

Elsewhere in the world, a two-day bond selloff in the UK has pushed yields on the country’s 30-year bonds to a 26-year high, adding to concerns about the incumbent Labour government’s planned public spending and tax hikes. On the other side of the pond, US president Joe Biden has announced a new — and presumably his final — set of restrictions on the export of US-made semiconductor chips.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • The long-awaited Banque du Caire stake sale could soon be kicking into gear: Banque Misr is preparing to appoint an advisor for the offering of its subsidiary Banque du Caire.
  • Stay tuned for important privatization updates “in the next few days”: The government will soon announce a timeline for the year’s privatization targets.
  • The government has its sights set on tackling the backlog of dues owed to exporters, with the Finance Ministry and the Investment Ministry announcing a new mechanism to clear EGP 60 bn in overdue payments to exporters through the Export Development Fund.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re expecting slightly cooler weather in the capital tomorrow, with the mercury capping off at 21°C in the morning and 11°C at night. Our favorite weather app is also telling us to look out for rain on this cloudy day.

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FOR YOUR COMMUTE

Live long and age smart, technology’s got your back

The new age of aging is upon us. We’ve all heard the stories: someone who smokes their whole life makes it to 100, while another who follows all the rules of health doesn't get nearly as far. As more research comes in, we’re starting to realize that how long we live isn’t all about luck, or even what’s written in our DNA. Tech is stepping in to help us live longer, healthier lives, and it’s giving us the tools to better understand the science of aging, NYT reports.

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What really makes us live longer? Science shows that your genes play a big part in how long you’ll live, especially when you’re getting into those older years. But that’s not the whole picture, in fact, lifestyle and environment impact 75% of your lifespan — at least until you’re pushing 100 — after that, genetics seem to take the lead. FOXO3 is a gene tied to better cellular health, and certain variations of APOE can lower your risk of Alzheimer’s.

But AI is lending a helping hand: AI is analyzing massive amounts of data to figure out how genetics, lifestyle, and environment all work together to affect longevity. Companies like Calico Life Sciences and Insilico Medicine are using machine learning to explore the genes of long livers, looking for clues on how we can slow down the aging process. Apps like ZOE and Viome are using AI to personalize your diet and health plan based on your genes and gut microbiome.

Or you get your insight from wearables: If tracking your steps isn’t good enough, gadgets like Oura Ring and Whoop Strap are giving us insights into our health in real time, from how well we sleep to how stressed we are. These devices measure things like heart rate variability and sleep cycles — key indicators of your biological age. When combined with blood tests from companies like InsideTracker, it's like having a personalized life plan in your pocket. On the biotech side, companies like Altos Labs and Unity Biotechnology are working on treatments that could rejuvenate cells and target age-related diseases.

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ON THE TUBE TONIGHT

Secrets bind them, and betrayal breaks them

? Explore the dark side of friendship in Watar Hassas: This series is a drama that has taken social media by storm since its very first episodes. Written by Amin Gamal and directed by Wael Farag, the series touches on themes of betrayal, loyalty, and the fragility of human relationships.

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The story revolves around three friends — Salma (Saba Mubarak), Camelia (Injy El Mokkadam), and Raghad (Heidy Karam) — whose strong bond starts to crumble under the pressure of lies and betrayal. Camelia discovers her husband Rashid’s (Mohamed Alaa) affair, setting off a chain reaction of revelations that expose the secrets each character has been hiding. Over its 45 episodes, Watar Hassas delves into the darker aspects of relationships, asking questions about the cost of betrayal and the limits of forgiveness.

It’s a slow burn drama with complex characters. However, the acting may feel underwhelming for some viewers who prefer intense performances. That said, the series’ universal themes and plot make it an emotional rollercoaster.

WHERE TO WATCH: You can watch the series on Yango Play or watch the trailer on YouTube (runtime: 1:38).

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Sports

Real at the Supercopa + Heated local and international matches

⚽ Another Supercopa semifinal is taking place today in King Abdullah Sports City. Real Madrid and Mallorca will be meeting on the pitch of the Shining Jewel Stadium at 9pm, and the winner will be facing Barcelona, who ascended to the finals after defeating Athletic Bilbao yesterday with two clean goals.

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The match between Zamalek and Abu Qir Fertilizers in the round of 32 of the Egyptian Cup is ongoing at the time of publication, with the current score being 1-0 in Zamalek’s favor.

The round of 64 of the FA Cup kicks off today and will be continuing throughout the weekend. The most important matches are taking place on Saturday, and will see Liverpool and Accrington Stanley going head to head at 2:15pm on Saturday, Chelsea and Morecambe meeting on the pitch at 5pm, and Manchester City facing off against Salford City at 7:45pm.

Other FA Cup matches to tune into:

  • Sheffield United vs. Cardiff City (tonight, 9pm)
  • Everton vs. Peterborough United (tonight, 9:45pm)
  • Fulham vs. Watford (tonight, 9:45pm)
  • Aston Villa vs. West Ham (Friday, 10pm)
  • Bristol City vs. Wolverhampton (Saturday, 2pm)
  • Leicester City vs. Queens Park (Saturday, 4pm)
  • Bournemouth vs. West Bromwich (Saturday, 5pm)
  • Brentford vs. Plymouth (Saturday, 5pm)
  • Norwich vs. Brighton (Saturday, 5pm)
  • Nottingham Forest vs. Luton Town (Saturday, 5pm)

The starting whistle for the eighth round of the Egyptian Premier League will blow tomorrow, and matches will continue throughout the coming week.

Matches we’ll be keeping an eye out for are:

  • National Bank vs. Ismaily (Saturday, 4pm)
  • Al Ittihad vs. ZED (Saturday, 7pm)

In the African Champions League: Al Ahly and Pyramids are looking forward to new confrontations as part of the new group stage of the CAF Champions League on Saturday. The Red Giant will be facing Côte d’Ivoire’s Stade d’Abidjan at 6pm. Pyramids will be on the pitch at the same time to face the Angolan Sagrada Asperança. Our homegrown teams are in second place in their respective groups (C and D), with Al Ahly beating out South Africa’s Orlando Pirates by just one point difference, while the only thing standing between Pyramids and first place — currently occupied by Tunisia’s Esperance — is one goal difference.

New rounds of major European leagues will be kicking off during the weekend. Here’s what to watch out for:

  • Nantes vs. Monaco — Ligue 1 (Friday, 8pm)
  • Dortmund vs. Leverkusen — Bundesliga (Friday, 9:30pm)
  • Udinese vs. Atalanta — Serie A (Saturday, 4pm)
  • St. Pauli vs. Frankfurt — Bundesliga (Saturday, 4:30pm)
  • Torino vs. Juventus — Serie A (Saturday, 7pm)
  • Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern Munich — Bundesliga (Saturday, 7:30pm)
  • Milan vs. Cagliari — Serie A (Saturday, 9:45pm)
  • Sevilla vs. Valencia — La Liga (Saturday, 10pm)
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OUT AND ABOUT

Let your children choose what’s right or wrong in this play

MARK YOUR CALENDAR-

? Step into a fun, interactive children’s show where you choose what’s right and wrong. Through fun, laughter, and engaging storytelling, Aywa Aywa La2a La2a at Rawabet Art Space encourages children to learn and embrace social and cultural values that matter. The show will run from Thursday, 9 January until Saturday, 11 January. Tickets are available on Ticketsmarche.

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HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Treat your ears to some Egyptian folk music: Sohba Semsemia brings you a vibrant singing and dancing show featuring traditional simsimiyya and tanbura music. Catch their performances at Rawabet Art Space from Wednesday, 8 January until Saturday, 1 February. Tickets are available on Ticketsmarche.

If your music taste is more pop, don’t miss out on Ramy Sabry and Ilmond taking the stage at Open Air Mall’s Winter Festival on Friday, 10 January starting at 7pm. Get your tickets through Ticketsmarche.

End your weekend with a bit of exploring. On Qahraweya’s Wrapped in Silk tour, you’ll witness artistry firsthand as you tour the creative heritage of Al Haraneya and Dahshour. You’ll even get to use your hands to create date based products, bake in an oriental oven, and craft with Halfa grass. The tour will take place Saturday, 11 January, get your tickets by messaging their page.

HAPPENING LATER-

Catch some laughs at Ahmed Khairy’s first standup comedy special. On Friday, 17 January the comedian will take the stage with a special show called “Made In Egypt” at El Rihany Theatre. Get your tickets on Ticketsmarche.

Tour the land of the stars with Qahraweya. Join their Cosmos Cinema tour on Friday, 17 January where you’ll tour the world of Egyptian cinema through the ages to get a glimpse behind the curtain at the magic and mastery of filmmaking in Egypt’s golden age and beyond. Details on how to reserve your spot can be found on their Facebook page.

This one is for the curious: Don’t miss out on Dangerous Experiment at Teatro Al Assema, an eye-opening, hour-long lecture by Dr. Khaled Ghattass where he delves into topics like relationships, life choices, and societal challenges — with a 20-minute Q&A session at the end. The lecture will take place on Friday, 24 January. Get your tickets on Ticketsmarche.

160 of Egypt’s most celebrated and promising artists. The 10th Edition of Cairo Art Fair is now open at TAM Gallery in Abu Rawwash and will continue running till Friday, 31 January.

The ultimate gaming event in Egypt is here. Gamergy Egypt will feature live competitions, immersive experiences, and activities to bring together gaming fans of all ages. The festival will take place from Thursday, 30 January to Saturday, 1 February at Al Burouj Cultural Hub. Earlybird tickets are now available on their website.

This one is for the sports fans. The Football Access Summit will feature talks, panels, and presentations from sports industry leaders — giving the fans insider access. The summit will take place on Friday-Saturday 7 and 8 February at ZED Park. Tickets are available on Ticketsmarche.

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GO WITH THE FLOW

What the markets are doing on 9 January 2025

The EGX30 fell 1.2% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 2.8 bn (27.9% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is down 1.0% YTD.

In the green: Sidpec (+3.5%), Juhayna (+2.4%) and Ezz Steel (+0.7%).

In the red: Orascom Construction (-4.7%), Edita Food Industries (-2.6%) and GB Corp (-2.5%).

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Economy

The future of employment

Five major macrotrends are expected to reshape the global workforce between 2025 and 2030. According to a report (pdf) published by the World Economic Forum, technological change, economic uncertainty, geoeconomic fragmentation, green transition, and demographic shifts will be the driving factors behind future employment behavior, based on insights from over 1k global employers, representing more than 14 mn workers across 22 industry clusters and 55 economies.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to external sources.)

Technological change emerges as the most transformative force, with broadening digital access expected to impact 60% of employers by 2030. Artificial intelligence and information processing technologies stand out as particularly significant, with 86% of employers anticipating business transformation from these advances. The surge in genAI adoption since late 2022 has been widespread, though adoption remains uneven across industries. Robotics and automation follow as the second most impactful technology trend, with 58%of employers expecting significant changes, while energy technology innovations are anticipated to transform 41% of businesses.

The report projects a significant shift in task distribution between humans and machines. Currently, humans perform 47% of tasks, technology handles 22%, and 30% involve human-machine collaboration. By 2030, this is expected to reach rough parity on a global scale, with each category accounting for approximately one-third of all tasks. This transition highlights the growing importance of human-machine collaboration while simultaneously raising questions about job displacement and the need for new skills development.

In Egypt, the report expects the numbers to flip, with technology being responsible for 45% of tasks, and humans only 30%, but both collaborating on 25%. Of the 51.4 mn people of working age in the country, 49 in 100 would not need additional training by 2030, 28 would be upskilled in their current role, 16 would be upskilled and redeployed, and 7 would be unlikely to upskill. 73% of the Egyptian organizations surveyed expect the primary barrier for business transformation to be skill gaps in the labor market, and only 65% are willing to invest in reskilling and upskilling their existing workforce to better work alongside AI.

The global economic outlook presents a mixed picture for the global labor market. While global growth is projected at 3.2% for 2025 and inflation expected to ease to 3.5%, the rising cost of living ranks as the second most transformational trend, with 50% of global employers and 61% of Egyptians employers expecting it to impact their businesses within the next five years. Other pecuniary pressures, including slow economic growth that is expected to displace 1.6 mn jobs globally, are creating a complex environment for employment planning and development and highlight the need for adaptable workforce strategies. Regions with robust economic foundations are expected to better weather these uncertainties and create pockets of opportunity for employment growth.

Runner-up economic concerns include geoeconomic fragmentation and geopolitical tensions. Trade restrictions have doubled between 2020 and 2024, and one third of all of the organizations surveyed expect it to drive their business model transformation in the near future. Over 20% of global employers — particularly those with significant trade exposure to the US and China — identify the subsequently increased restrictions on trade and investment and the changing subsidies and industrial policies as major factors shaping their operations in the upcoming five years.

These uncertainties have been reshaping consumer and employment behavior, driving an increasing demand in security related job roles, network and cyber security skills, and human-centered skills such as creative problem-solving.

Climate mitigation and adaptation rank among the top drivers of organizational transformation. Over 40% of employers anticipate substantial job creation in roles such as renewable energy engineers, environmental specialists, and electrical vehicle technicians. These roles are driven by global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and transition to sustainable energy systems.

The increasing importance of environmental stewardship is reflected in the inclusion of related skills among the fastest-growing competencies, with 25% of employers considering them to be current core skills for their workforce, and almost 80% expecting the demand to grow by 53% by 2030. However, the shift to green economies, while necessary, presents challenges for workers in traditional energy sectors and carbon-intensive industries, who now face significant displacement risks, necessitating large-scale reskilling initiatives to enable a just transition.

Two major demographic trends will inform future workforce dynamics. Aging populations in higher-income economies are leading to an increase in the demand for healthcare professionals, while a growing working-age population in low-income economies presents an opening for economic expansion. The report projects that 22% of today’s jobs will be affected by structural transformation by 2030, including the creation of 170 mn new jobs (14% of current employment), and the displacement of 92 mn jobs (8%), resulting in a net growth of 78 mn jobs (7%).

Employers in Egypt are optimistic. 55% of participating companies in Om El Donia — significantly above the global average, just under 30% — expect the availability of talent to rise, even in the face of the possibility that 48% of the Egyptian workforce’s on-the-job skills are expected to change within the next five years. 39% of surveyed Egyptian companies expect hiring conditions to improve by 2030 despite slow economic growth, while employers in Europe expect hiring to become more challenging.

Egypt has proven inclusive in its hiring practices, and was ranked first in employing people with disabilities and people from low-income backgrounds. We have also scored in the top three countries hiring people from disadvantaged religious, ethnic, or racial backgrounds. However, women and youth still face high unemployment rates across the board despite both demographics being top priorities for 76% of global employers. Addressing this disparity, especially in an economy with a significant gender and age-based labor market gap, requires targeted policies to improve access to employment and education.


JANUARY

8 January-1 February (Wednesday-Saturday): Aywa Aywa La2 La2 at Rawabet Art Space.

8 January-1 February (Wednesday-Saturday): Sohba Semsemia at Rawabet Art Space.

10 January (Friday): Ramy Sabry and Ilmond at Open Air Mall.

11 January (Saturday): Wrapped in Silk tour by Qahraweya.

17 January (Friday): Cosmos Cinema tour by Qahraweya.

17 January (Friday): Ahmed Khairy at El Rihany Theatre.

18 January (Saturday): Nouma x Lamba Art tour by Qahraweya.

18 January (Saturday): Founders Live Cairo at Creativa Innovation Hub.

21 January (Tuesday): Shawshy Time at Rawabet Art Space.

22 January (Wednesday): Out of Eight at Rawabet Art Space.

24 January (Friday): Dr. Khaled Ghattass at Teatro Al Assema.

24 January (Friday): MM events at Ain El Hayah resort.

29-31 January (Wednesday-Friday): Fire of Anatolia at Cairo Opera House.

7 December-31 January (Saturday-Friday): Cairo Art Fair at TAM Gallery.

30 January-1 February (Thursday-Saturday): Gamergy Egyptat Al Burouj Cultural Hub.

FEBRUARY

1 February (Saturday): Saleh El Nawawy’s debut at Theatro Arkan.

7-8 February (Friday-Saturday): Football Access Summit at Zed Park.

14 February (Friday): Heliopolis Marathon with Cairo Runners.

23-25 February (Sunday-Tuesday): Sports Expo 2025 at Egypt International Exhibition Center.

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