Good afternoon, all, and happy almost-weekend. The only issue on everyone’s minds and tongues both locally and internationally is Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

And with that, we’re back on the MAGA train. Donald Trump has been electedto his second nonconsecutive term at the White House in a political comeback that has seen the former president sweep nearly all key swing states and secure the popular vote. Trump has already claimed victory early Wednesday, saying in a speech that through the election results “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has yet to concede, with her campaign canceling her previously scheduled engagements this morning.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is among the world leaders that have already congratulated Trump on his victory, saying in an X post that Egypt wishes him “all the success in achieving the interests of the American people,” and affirming that “we look forward to working together to establish peace, maintain regional stability, and strengthen the strategic partnership” between the two countries.

Trump’s political comeback shocked those on the left and right: Despite repeated assertions in the days leading up to election day that the race was too close to call, Trump’s win was sweeping. Some right-wing pundits were ready to call the election by 10:30pm on the US’ east coast, with Fox News host Bret Baier declaring Trump “probably the biggest political phoenix from the ashes that we have ever seen in the history of politics.”

The Democrats also lost their majority in the Senate, with Republicans flipping three seats in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana to gain the majority. The race for the House of Representatives remains too close to call, but it’s a strong possibility that Republicans could control both chambers of Congress and the presidency in the coming few years — giving them nearly untrammeled ability to push through the party’s preferred legislation and Trump’s favored Cabinet appointments, many of whom are likely to dismantle or radically reshape key parts of the US administrative state.

KEY TALKING POINTS

Swing states swung decisively toward Trump: The Donald appears to have secured victories in all seven swing states that had been widely expected to decide the election, with Trump flipping Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia — all of which voted for Joe Biden in 2020. North Carolina stayed within Republican hands, as it did in 2020, while the electoral votes of the remaining key swing states of Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada also appear to be headed to Trump once the vote-count is complete.

Inflation was on the ballot: Polls conducted by Reuters/Ipsos saw voters identify the economy as the biggest problem facing the country, with voters citing high prices as among their key concerns. Among those who identified the economy as the biggest single issue in the election, 79% voted for Trump — signaling little faith in the incumbent Democrats’ ability to steward the US economy.

Harris’ considerable losses in key battlegrounds, alongside sharp downticks in Democrats’ vote share in their traditional strongholds and constituencies — including among women and voters of color — reflected the Democratic candidate’s weak appeal to on-the-fence voters and the party’s traditional base alike. Another indication of this was the relative success of progressive state ballot measures, which performed much better than Harris in many parts of the country — with abortion rights ballot measures seeing particular success even in states that voted solidly for Trump.

Identity politics was — as always — a key point of discussion, with many pundits noting Trump’s improved numbers among voters of color, particularly men. Exit polls noted a strong rightward shift among Latino voters, with Trump’s 45% share a full 13 percentage points above his showing in 2020’s exit polls. Trump boosted his numbers among some black voters, with North Carolina exit polls showing Trump garnering 12% of the black vote, up from 5% in 2020. The president-elect also won over suburban white women voters 51% to Harris’ 47%, with polls showing Harris receiving less support from women nationally than Biden received in 2020. Younger voters also voted for the Democratic candidate in smaller numbers, with Harris winning voters between the ages of 18 and 29 by a 10-point margin, down from Biden’s 24 points.

Meanwhile, Arab American voters in Michigan deserted the Democratic Party en masse, with the plurality of votes cast in the largest majority-Arab American city of Dearborn, which Joe Biden won decisively in 2020, going to Trump. The showing was a sharp rebuke to the Biden administration’s blank check for genocide in Gaza and following what had been described in recent days as racist and tone-deaf campaigning by the Harris camp in Michigan.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM A SECOND TRUMP PRESIDENCY?

Trade protectionism is a key campaign promise: Going by Trump’s campaign promises, the president-elect is likely to significantly boost trade barriers. Trump has previously said that he might impose a 200% tariff on some imported cars — particularly those from Mexico — and has floated the idea of a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US. His running mate JD Vance has also proposed a 10% tax on remittances to Latin America — the most recent of the pair’s xenophobic policy prescriptions aimed at immigrants. China also remains in the president-elect’s crosshairs, with Trump proposing phasing out Chinese imports of pharma products, electronics, and steel in the next four years and banning Chinese firms from owning US real estate or tech and energy infrastructure.

All of this spells a stronger USD: Tariff barriers and lower expected contributions to multilateral institutions are likely to depress growth in other parts of the world, strengthening the greenback. More oil production, lower corporate taxes, and a tough immigration policy are all likely to lead to domestic inflation — good for equities, but not so good for the disgruntled US voters sick of high prices that just voted Trump into office.

In our neck of the woods: Trump has expressed his support for Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, but has publicly stated that Israel’s assault is taking too long. He is widely expected to continue sending arms to Israel, and is likely to give Israel more latitude to engage in hostilities with Iran. Trump’s previous administration saw the president-elect push for normalization between a number of Arab countries and Israel and instate travel restrictions on people traveling to the US from a number of Muslim-majority countries, dubbed the “Muslim ban.” At the same time, Trump enjoys much stronger working relationships with some regional leaders than the Biden administration — making it difficult to gauge how his policies might shift when back in the seat of power.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• IMF kicks off its fourth review of the country’s loan program: An International Monetary Fund mission has begun its long-awaited fourth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn loan program, which if successfully completed would unlock USD 1.3 bn in funds — the biggest of the four tranches Egypt has received from the program to date.
• On the up, but still in the red: Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity contracted for the second consecutive month in October.
• SCZone inks land usufruct agreement for Kemet Data Center: The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) signed a land usufruct agreement with Intro Group that gives it access to a plot in the Sokhna Industrial Zone to set up the USD 450 mn Kemet Data Center .

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- The mercury will be rising a few degrees above the cooldown we’ve been enjoying, and we’ll be seeing a high of 29°C and a low of 18°C in the capital tomorrow, according to our favorite weather app.