Investors are again assessing Egypt’s prospects positively, John Sfakianakis writes for Bloomberg. By floating the EGP and securing financing from the IMF, “Egypt made the right decision,” he says. Sfakianakis notes the recent appreciation of the EGP “has been faster than most expected, pointing to a more balanced and efficient market” and “external flows are helping instill stability in the foreign exchange market.” He expects exports and tourism to get a boost from the cheaper currency but is concerned about the inflationary effects as well as the increases in cost of capital following the CBE rate hikes. Manufacturing will also be a key source for job creation and Sfakianakis says a shift towards more local content will reduce reliance on intermediate imports, “produce better-paying jobs and develop a sustainable production chain.”
Sfakianakis’ report came despite business conditions for Egypt’s non-oil private sector continuing on a downward path in February, with the Emirates NBD PMI compiled by Markit registering 46.7. The silver lining in the report is that the contraction, while ongoing for the seventeenth month in a row, was the least severe since August and the PMI reading increased from 43.3 in January. Still, February’s downturn was led by sharp declines in both output and new work but with softening contraction rates and the rate of job reduction was the slowest in a year. Emirates NBD Head of Research Tim Fox commented: “the headline index rose to its highest level in six months. New export orders were only marginally lower than in January, signaling improving external demand, and the rate of decline in output was slower last month. Inflationary pressures remain high, but the rate of input price inflation eased markedly in February. Overall, there are signs of stabilization in the non-oil private sector.” Overall, the report notes that “the degree of optimism among Egyptian firms improved to an eight-month high. Companies expect market conditions to improve, thereby boosting output over the coming year.”
… Bloomberg’s Ahmed Feteha says the PMI reading is a sign that the economy may be recovering, pointing to the new orders sub-index rising to 44 from 39.2. The reading suggests “that the recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound is already having a positive impact on external demand, and this should continue to improve in the coming months.”
On that, the Trade and Industry Ministry announced that Egypt’s trade deficit fell by 44% y-o-y in January to USD 1.96 bn. Ahram Online notes that non-petroleum exports increased by 25% in January to USD 1.6 bn from USD 1.32 bn a year earlier, while imports decreased by 25% from USD 4.82 bn to USD 3.62 bn.
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Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr is targeting USD 22 bn in financing for the private sector from international financing institutions over the next three years, she told reporters on Sunday, according to Al Borsa. As we noted last week, Nasr is planning to meet with the World Bank Group’s delegation this month, presumably to resume talks on USD 400 mn in funding for labor-intensive projects and SME development. Her statements came at the signing of four agreements between the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority and the General Authority for Investments and Free Zones to facilitate establishing new companies.
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The EUR 238 mn contract signed with Siemens for six power transmission stations was 85% financed by foreign loans led by BNP Paribas as Coordinating MLA and Facility Agent and was closed in November. The loan benefited from a sovereign guarantee by the Finance Ministry and insurance by Germany's state-owned Export Credit Agency (ECA) Euler Hermes. Youssef Beshay, senior banker at BNP Paribas, tells us that tapping ECA financing enabled the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company as a borrower to “access long-term foreign funding at very low cost relative to Egypt's sovereign credit rating.” He says that this was not just limited to energy products, but also used in the purchase of the Rafale jets from France and in financing the expansion of the MIDOR refinery. ECAs have been used as funding vehicles from the EU to Egypt for major projects. ECA-backed funding is particularly vital and an “unnoticed source of international support and foreign liquidity to Egypt,” Beshay says. This enabled the government to procure major infrastructure projects on fast-track basis with competitive and long-term funding.
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EGX boss Omran granted powers to suspend brokers for up to a month: The EGX board approved on Sunday granting EGX Chairman Mohamed Omran the power to suspend brokers suspected of market manipulation for up to one month, Omran tells Al Shorouk. Omran’s justification was that suspending trading alone would not be enough and was not efficient. He added that those suspended could file grievances to the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA), which would then investigate the matter. Omran threw cold water on questions that this had anything to do with the Beltone stock manipulation saga, stating that the move was part of a wider effort to curb market manipulation and not in response to a single incident. His statement, coming only a week after EFSA filed a case against Beltone shareholders with the Administrative Court and almost a year of suspending trades on Beltone shares, needs to be a little more convincing.
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MOVES- Abbas Fayed was named Bank Audi Egypt’s new Chief Executive Officer on Sunday, according to Al Borsa. Fayed had been the deputy chairman of the bank since October 2014 and prior to that had occupied various positions in Banque Misr, where he eventually reached the post of deputy chairman.
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**Earnings watch: Talaat Mostafa Group Holding (TMGH) reported consolidated net profits of EGP 826 mn in FY2016, up from EGP 762 mn in FY2015 according to a regulatory filing.
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Online payment provider Payfort and entrepreneurship platform Wamda are collaborating on publishing the first fintech research report in the MENA region this month, Daily News Egypt reports. The report “aims to identify the key drivers and barriers for the new FinTech industry in the region. It will also offer insights on what solutions FinTech startups are providing and what investors and policymakers need to consider now in order to unleash FinTech’s potential.”
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Egypt’s General Intelligence Service hired Weber Shandwick to lobby on Egypt’s behalf in the US for USD 1.2 mn, according to the Associated Press, which cites documents on the Justice Department’s website. “The contract posted on the site shows that the company will assist Egypt in ‘promoting its strategic partnership with the United States,’ highlighting its economic development, showcasing its civil society, and publicizing Egypt's ‘leading role in managing regional risks.’”
The lobbying is entirely warranted considering the US State Department’s critical report on Egypt’s human rights record, which drew the ire and objections of Egypt’s Foreign Affairs Ministry. The report — part of the State Department’s Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2016 — says that Egypt’s most significant human rights issues include excessive use of force by security forces, deficiencies in due process, and the suppression of civil liberties. Responding in a statement, the Foreign Ministry stated that the report reflects the American viewpoint, and is not in any way related to contractual legal frameworks to which Egypt commits, including its membership in UN organizations. The ministry said human rights conditions are monitored by independent, governmental organizations, as well as the House of Representatives.
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TV presenter Ibrahim Eissa was summoned for questioning at the Prosecutor General’s office yesterday, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Eissa’s questioning follows a case filed by Speaker Ali Abdel Aal, accusing Eissa of insulting the House of Representatives. Lawyer Nasser Amin says what is happening with Eissa is in violation of the constitution and goes against freedom of expression. Eissa was released after questioning yesterday evening. The Prosecutor General’s office has also reportedly begun a second investigation against Eissa for an article in which he likens Sinai to war-torn Iraq and Syria, Al Mal reports.
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The Alexandria Criminal Court dropped a corruption lawsuit against Mubarak-era businessman Hussein Salem, his family, and 11 other defendants on Saturday, Daily News Egypt reports. Egypt had reached a reconciliation agreement with Salem and his family in August to drop charges in exchange for 75% of their wealth, worth EGP 5.34 bn.
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Dubai Financial Market (DFM) launched a trading platform for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the first of its kind in regional capital markets, yesterday. Afkar Capital listed the first ETF fund on DFM platform under the symbol UAETF and announced signing Al Ramz Capital as a new Authorized Participant (AP) for it, bringing the total number of APs to four. Afkar also appointed Beltone Financial as a Foreign Liquidity Provider. Existing UAETF Authorized participants include EFG Hermes Brokerage UAE, Al Safwa Mubasher Financial Services, and NBAD Securities. “The addition of a new AP and the appointment of a foreign market maker will further facilitate the creation and redemption of UAETF’s shares, keeping its fair value in check, and will allow the firm to efficiently meet the growing market demand for the ETF,” DFM says.
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