The central bank has officially scrapped all caps placed on bank transfers abroad. The central bank instructed that all restrictions on transfers to bank accounts abroad be removed starting from yesterday, but noted that banks must maintain their regular know-your-customer (KYC) protocols. Since January, the central bank had been imposing a cap of USD 100k per client on transfers after having loosened a restriction that only allowed one USD 100k transfer for each client regardless of the time period. The central bank says the move is to facilitate bank transactions and meet client demands. Governor Tarek Amer, who had promised last month the caps would be removed, said the move marks the end to the FX crisis in Egypt, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Banque Misr chairman Mohamed El Etreby told Youm7 that his bank had lifted restrictions yesterday. The story is gaining heavy traction in the foreign press, with the Financial Times, Bloomberg and Reuters taking note.
The decision will have an impact on global depository receipts trading: The EGX and the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority is looking into regulatory changes governing trading of GDRs in line with the lifting of transfer restrictions, EGX chairman Mohamed Omran tells MENA News Agency, according to AMAY. The new rules could do away with restrictions from 2012 and 2015, which include requirements that the proceeds from the sale of GDRs converted from EGX-listed shares be deposited in a CBE-approved bank and can only be withdrawn in the currency in which the original EGX shares were purchased.
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Egypt’s balance of payments netted USD 11.0 bn in the first three quarters of FY 2016-17, of which USD 9.0 bn came after the EGP float in November, as the CBE made sure to outline in a bold typeface. The increase was driven almost entirely by the capital and financial account, which registered USD 24.6 bn during the period, from USD 14.6 bn in the comparable period in FY 2015-16. Egypt saw a net FDI inflow of USD 6.6 bn in the first three quarters of FY2016-17, mostly going to the oil sector. Portfolio investments grew to USD 7.8 bn during the same period, from USD 1.5 bn last fiscal year, on the increase in foreigners’ investment in Egyptian treasuries.
Merchandise exports increased by 19.3% y-o-y in the first three quarters, driving the trade deficit down by 9.4% y-o-y to USD 27.0 bn and the current account deficit by 12.4% y-o-y to USD 13.2 bn. The export increase was supported by the competitive advantage of the prices of Egyptian exports following the EGP exchange rate liberalization.
Although tourism receipts over the three-quarter period remain on the retreat with a 25.9% decrease, the silver lining is that 3Q 2016-17 tourism receipts figures increased by 128.3% y-o-y to USD 1.3 bn. Still underperforming, however, is the Suez Canal, with receipts falling 4.2% y-o-y over a decline in net transiting tonnage. Remittances inflows remain strong and have increased by 10.9% y-o-y to USD 4.62 bn.
Foreign companies operating in the market also managed to repatriate a collective USD 2.21 bn of their profits during the 9M2016-17.
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The string of positive figures carried into the Egypt’s debt market, where apparently, foreigners increased their holdings by 7% in just over a week to EGP 155.9 bn (USD 8.5 bn), unnamed officials tell Al Borsa. Foreigners had bought treasury bills worth EGP 145.5 bn (USD 8.4 bn) since the EGP float, as of 6 June.
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Back to the revival of tourism, where the number of tourists arriving in Egypt rose 51% year-on-year in the first four months of 2017, according to a Tourism Ministry statement. Arrivals from Ukraine and Poland more than doubled in 4M2017 compared to last year, while German arrivals increased by 50% y-o-y, Italian by 30%, and British by 20%. These increases come on the back of Egypt’s tourism promotional campaigns, which have launched in 11 overseas markets since September 2016, Tourism Promotion Authority chief Hisham El Demery said. The TDA has so far in 2017 used USD 9 mn of the yearly USD 22 mn earmarked for tourism campaigns, which will focus on marketing the winter season, El Demery said. 1Q2017 arrivals had also seen a 51% y-o-y jump.
Hurghada was the clear winner on the German package holiday market last month: Yet again, the recent resurgence has not gone unnoticed in the foreign press, with German travel outlet FVW noting that German bookings to Hurghada jumped a sharp 102% year-on-year in May, and declaring it the clear winner in German holiday package market. Meanwhile, Canadian publication Travel Week is charting the increase in the number of Canadian tourists visiting the country, noting that their numbers grew 22.9% in 1Q2017 (and 19% in March alone) despite repeated terrorist attacks. The conclusion: Egypt’s tourism market is definitely on the rebound.
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Higher fuel prices in July look like they might be reality, unnamed Petroleum Ministry officials tell AMAY. With a projected energy subsidy bill next year of around EGP 140 bn — of which EGP 110 bn are earmarked for petroleum products and EGP 30 bn for electricity — the government doesn’t really have much of a choice, the sources explain. We noted earlier this week that some in the government were angling for a delay in plans to raise the price of 92-grade octane petrol by EGP 1 per liter to EGP 4.5 per liter starting 1 July. They say this delay might offset the effects of an inevitable hike in electricity prices coming next month. Electricity prices could rise by 10-15% for the lowest consumption brackets, while higher consumption brackets could see increases ranging from 20-40%, unnamed Electricity Ministry officials tell Al Borsa.
But some members of the House of Representatives appear want to delay energy pricehikes including fuel and electricity. A number of MPs reportedly sent official requests to the Electricity Ministry asking that it delay planned price increases to avoid adding to inflationary pressures, the newspaper adds. The requests also proposed different scenarios for the price hikes and suggests that the ministry also extend its timeline for the phase-out of electricity subsidies to 10 years. Minister Mohamed Shaker had said this week though that the government is already considering pushing the timeline by another two or three years instead of removing subsidies entirely by 2019 as originally planned.
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Germany can exert more pressure on state-sponsors of terrorism, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told Germany’s ARD Radio. He said terrorism will not get defeated by just fighting groups like Daesh, extremist ideas need to be combated, and warned German listeners of the potential for terrorist attacks. El Sisi is not looking for more military support from Germany, but says the country could have a more active role in cutting financing to terrorist-linked groups and states. The main goal now, according to El Sisi, is to dry out the funding sources of terrorism. ARD notes that El Sisi did not single out Qatar explicitly as one of those state sponsors of terror, but said the most recent boycott of the nation would not be destabilizing to the region and will not lead to “war.” El Sisi also reportedly spoke about human rights, freedom of expression, and freedom of the press in the interview. According to Al Shorouk, El Sisi insisted that no one in Egypt is above the law, even the president himself.
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Will Rosatom have competition in Egypt? The Chinese pushing the sale of “new, small-scale nuclear reactor designs that could be used in isolated regions, on ships and even aircraft as part of an ambitious plan to wrest control of the global nuclear market,” according to a report by Reuters’ David Stanway. State-owned China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is set to launch a small modular reactor (SMR) called the “Nimble Dragon” within weeks, Stanway says. CNNC says it has been in discussions with a number of countries, including Egypt, as potential partners. SMRs are “a little bigger than a bus” and create “less toxic waste and can be built in a single factory,” compared to large scale reactors that cost upward of USD 10 bn per unit, more than 10 times the projected cost of SMRs. “‘Small-scale reactors are a new trend in the international development of nuclear power - they are safer and they can be used more flexibly,’ said Chen Hua, vice president of the China Nuclear New Energy Corporation, a subsidiary of CNNC.”
Keep it in perspective: SMRs power microwave ovens, nuclear plants power cities. Anything under about 500 MW counts as an SMR, while each of four reactors at the initial Daba’a facility Rosatom wants to build in Egypt is expected to generate at least 1.2 GW. China is looking at SMRs as loss leader of a form, having offered in January 2016 to build a 1 GW nuclear plant at Daba’a at a cost of about USD 5 bn.
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House votes in favour of handing Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi: The House of Representatives voted after a heated and contentious plenary session yesterday in favor of an agreement that would transfer sovereignty over the Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia, Al Masry Al Youm says. This follows swift approval of the treaty by the House Defense and National Security Committee. The haste with which the treaty moved through the House enraged longtime opponents of the pact, according to Al Shorouk.
Supporters defend their decision: Members of the Support Egypt Coalition (the House majority bloc), MPs from the Salafist Nour Party and the liberal Free Egyptians Party all backed the agreement, basing their decision on a 1990 presidential decree that had defined Egypt’s maritime borders and excluded the two islands. That was the single piece of official evidence presented to back Saudi’s claim to sovereignty, they said. Majority bloc leader Mohamed Elsewedy defended the agreement's viability, maintaining that the islands are in fact Saudi territory and arguing that the Armed Forces would have intervened if it had been in any way detrimental to national security or infringed on Egyptian sovereignty. Elsewedy noted that MPs chose to pass the agreement despite expectations of a public backlash.
It may all come down to the Supreme Constitutional Court: The vote, which ignored a verdict by the Administrative Court nullifying the treaty, could be moot if the Supreme Constitutional Court rules against the government. The State Commissioners Body of the Supreme Constitutional Court (as distinct from the body of the same name that is part of the administrative court system) issued a report contesting the government’s case that sovereign affairs are not the purview of the Administrative Court, stating that the argument does not apply in the case of the two islands. The Constitutional Court is set to begin looking into the case on 30 July, according to AMAY.
Calls for protest caused authorities to beef up security in Downtown Cairo yesterday. Eight people were reportedly arrested after clashes with police outside the Press Syndicate, according to Al Shorouk. The Egyptian Social Democratic Party also announced a sit-in at their headquarters to protest the House’s vote, while others called for a gathering in Tahrir Square. Bloomberg notes that the agreement “had triggered the largest protests against [President Abdel Fattah] El-Sisi since he took office in 2014” back when news of it first surfaced in 2016. AMAY has a timeline and infografic here detailing the story of this contentious agreement.
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Forbes contributor Mfonobong Nsehe compiled a list of five Egyptian multi-mn’aires whose names “don’t ring with the African public, and you’ve probably never heard about them before, but they are very successful.” The list includes Amoun’s Tharwat Bassily and Ahmed Elsewedy. Groundbreaking, right?
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