The epic smackdown on Qatar continues: Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani blamed “media fabrications” for the escalations that led to severing ties with his country. He said in an interview with Al Jazeera, covered by his ministry, that the “unprecedented escalation” will be met with “dialogue,” denying any knowledge of the “real reasons for this crisis.” Al Thani stuck with Doha’s official story that Qatar News Agency was hacked and this is what resulted in publishing “fabricated statements” by the Qatari emir that enraged regional allies. One thing we took note of was Al Thani’s remarks that “there are question marks over the future of GCC because internal ties in the council should be based on solidarity and cooperation.”
Saudi Arabia was unwavering about keeping the statelet boxed in.Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir said on Tuesday thatQatar needs to sever all ties with Hamas and the Ikhwan if it hopes to get back into the good graces of its Arab neighbors, according to Reuters. “We want to see Qatar implement the promises it made a few years back with regards to its support of extremist groups, its hostile media and interference in affairs of other countries,” Jubeir said. “We took this step with great pain so that it understands that these policies are not sustainable and must change.”
Qatar may have to pull the plug on Al Jazeera as a condition of even starting official talks on a way forward. That’s the contention of Sultan Al Qassemi, the gadfly Emirati commentator on Arab affairs who rose to prominence tweeting the 2011 uprising in Egypt and who is a well-liked in western circles. Al Qassemi, a member of the royal family of Sharjah, contends that, “It is likely that this time the Gulf States will demand the complete shuttering of the Al Jazeera TV Network before any mediation can take place. Additionally, the plug will have to be pulled on networks funded by Qatar such as Al Araby Al Jadeed [among other ‘news’ outlets]. … The Gulf States and their Egyptian ally will also demand the expulsion of all Muslim Brotherhood leaders and their Hamas affiliate figures from Qatar.” Read Al Qassemi’s piece for Newsweek.
Is the statelet giving in — or looking for room to maneuver?Israel's Haaretz contends that a number of top Hamas officials left Qatar on Monday at the authorities’ request, citing unnamed Palestinian officials, who said that Musa Dudin and Saleh al-Arouri were among those to depart.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump inadvertently played into the Iranian narrative to score cheap points at home: A day after saying he wanted to “calm the Gulf flareup,” US President Donald Trump gave himself credit for Qatar’s isolation, tweeting: “During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar - look.” In his rush to score minor political points, Trump may have inadvertently lent credence to Iranian accusations, and the move is not going down well with the East coast foreign policy elite (cf: Times, the New York).
The domino effect: Yesterday saw French Justice Minister Francois Bayrou saying his country should end tax breaks granted to Qataris by former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s administration on profits from the sale of properties in France. “Can this situation continue? I don't think so. I think it's very important that in France we have tax fairness,” Bayrou says. This came as the French Foreign Ministry’s stance was to express its wishes that “current tensions are resolved through dialogue.” Russian President Vladimir Putin called for diplomacy and dialogue in resolving the split in a phone call with Qatar’s Emir, TASSreports. He reportedly also rang President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on Tuesday to follow up on the situation, according to Russian news agency. The Philippines also decided yesterday to bar nationals from traveling to Qatar for work temporarily, according to Reuters.
Other countries in the region went with the tide and took action against Qatar yesterday, with Mauritania officially announcing that it would be cutting diplomatic ties and Jordan shutting down Al Jazeera’s Amman office and moving to “limit” its diplomatic relations, according to Al Shorouk. Morocco’s national flag carrier also announced yesterday that it would be rerouting flights to Egypt, Saudi, and UAE that typically pass through Doha.
Domestically, Egypt Post said it is suspending all service to Qatar, according to Al Masry Al Youm. This means that residents in Egypt will not be able to send letters or packages to Qatar. The decision follows the suspension of flights between the two countries.
Qatari investments in Egypt are protected by law and will not be affected, a top government official told Daily News Egypt. These investments are “secure” unless businesses choose to pull out of the market, he added.
Collateral damage: Asian tourism to Egypt? Travel and tourism businesses in Egypt are not so thrilled about the suspension of flights to the statelet, Al Shorouk says. The cutoff of flights to and from Qatar will hit the (frankly small) Japanese and other Far Eastern tourism markets hard, warned Magdy Haneen, tourism committee head at the British-Egyptian Chamber of Commerce. They’re among a handful of Asian markets that made stopovers in Qatar on their way to Cairo.
Qatar has reportedly confirmed that the flare up will not affect the status of Egyptian workers in Qatar, Labor Minister Mohamed Saafan said in a Tuesday statement, according to Al Mal. The Egyptian embassy in Doha received confirmation from Qatari authorities that labor contracts will be honored.
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M&A WATCH- The International Finance Corporation (IFC) closed its acquisition of a 10%stake in AXA Egypt Investment, according to an emailed statement. AXA Group and IFC have had a long-standing global partnership to develop the sector in emerging markets and contribute to their sustainable growth and invest through co-investments or acquisitions, work on improving road safety, infrastructure development, responsible Investments, and microinsurance, the statement said. The value of the transaction was not disclosed.
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INVESTMENT WATCH- Mexico’s CEMEX is planning to invest USD 20 mn in Egypt this year on top of the USD 1.2 bn it has already invested, CEMEX Egypt chief Ramon Rodrigo Piza told Investment Minister Sahar Nasr. Mexico wants to invest more in Egypt, especially in cement, contracting, and technology, said Mexican Ambassador Jose Octavio, who attended the meeting, according to a ministry statement
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Auerbach Grayson signs partnership agreement with Okasan Securities: Beltone Financial-owned Auerbach Grayson & Co has partnered with Japan’s Okasan Securities to provide US investors with “greater access to Japanese market intelligence,” according to an emailed statement. “Auerbach Grayson will provide its institutional clients with increased on-the-ground research and coverage of investment opportunities in Japan. The partnership also allows Okasan Securities to expand its international business by providing Auerbach Grayson’s clients … with bespoke research, corporate access, and seamless trade execution across a wide range of sectors and listed companies in the Japanese market.” Beltone owns a 60% stake in New York-based Auerbach Grayson.
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Capital inflows to EM to increase in 2017, Egypt to get USD 32 bn -IIF. Non-resident capital inflows to emerging markets are projected to increase by USD 252 bn to USD 970 bn in 2017, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The IIF expects resident capital flows to EMs to fall this year because of China’s capital controls that clamped down on outward investment. Most EMs should see flows improving, but the IIF remains cautious on Brazil. The report notes that the EGP flotation, and tight monetary and fiscal policies, were “were critical steps to restore competitiveness and macroeconomic stability, rebuild reserves, and alleviate investor uncertainty over [EGP] valuation.” It expects capital flows to Egypt to increase and peak at USD 32 bn in 2017 “on the back of higher FDI, disbursement of loans from multilateral organizations, and issuance of Eurobonds.” It also forecasts that portfolio investment in Egypt will shift to a net inflow of USD 7 bn in the current fiscal year, from a net outflow of USD 1.3 bn in FY 2015-16.
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Are you paying attention, Nigeria? Egypt’s net FX reserves overtook Nigeria’s for the first time since 2011, Paul Wallace writes for Bloomberg. Egypt’s reserves reached USD 31.1 bn in May, with inflows reaching USD 7.5 bn, speeding up considerably since the central bank adopted a full float of the EGP. Nigeria’s central bank is trying its hand at a managed float and saw its reserves fall 2.3% in May, the lesson here being obvious.
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Speaking of the CBE, it has paid another USD 750 mn in arrears owed to international oil companies in the past few days, Assistant Sub Governor Rami Abulnaga said, according to Al Masry Al Youm. That follows separate payments topping USD 750 mn made to IOCs last month.
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Ergot… again? An administrative court struck down a government decree transferring responsibility for inspecting agricultural imports from the Agriculture Ministry's quarantine body to the Trade Ministry, Reuters reported. This could mean that Egypt will return to the zero-tolerance policy for ergot in grain shipments, which caused severe disruption to wheat supplies. “The zero-tolerance policy led to suppliers shunning state tenders and effectively cut off Egypt's access to global grain markets,” Reuters notes.
Egypt’s limit for forgot remains at 0.05%, and that the current policy remains in place, said the Agriculture Ministry's spokesperson on Tuesday, Reuters notes, potentially foreshadowing a bureaucratic (and legal) showdown over the policy. For the record, the UN FAO’s Codex Alimentarius allows for up to 0.05% ergot in wheat shipments.
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Does someone in the tourism industry want Yehia Rashed out? Red Sea Tourism Investment Association chairman Kamal Abou Ali has resigned from the Supreme Tourism Council, which convened for the first time in February, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Abou Ali says there is no clear vision for saving the tourism sector. The Egyptian Hotels Association’s steering committee vice president Ahmed El Waseef had also resigned from the Supreme Tourism Council a day before, according to Al Shorouk. Also leaving is Hajj Supreme Committee member Nasser Torki, who complained he was not being consulted on important decisions such as a recent hike in hajj prices, which he said was ordered unilaterally by the ministry. The wave of complaints and resignations comes after the launch of what we felt was a paid media campaign by some in the industry aiming to put pressure on Minister Yehia Rashed.
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MOVES- The Central Bank of Egypt approved CIB’s appointment of Amr El Ganainy as its CEO for institutional banking, according to a bourse statement.
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MOVES- Diaa Rashwan was appointed chairman of the State Information Service (SIS), Al Masry Al Youm reports. Rashwan is a former head of the Press Syndicate and director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. The appointment of a veteran columnist and analyst is the first time in recent memory (ours, at least) that the post has not been headed by a career diplomat.
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Need a primer on the investment law? A good starting point is this narrated slide show (with accompanying text summary) from Sharkawy & Sarhan (watchor read, runtime: 10:01).
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