Fitch says Egypt Banks' FX liquidity to improve as transfer cap ends: Egypt's removal of FX transfer limits will help to restore confidence in the economy and attract foreign investments, increasing the availability of FC and helping banks provide more lending needed by FC borrowers, particularly importers, Fitch Ratings says. “We expect a greater inflow from foreign investors now that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has ended the USD 100K annual cap on the amount that account holders can transfer outside Egypt. The removal of the cap last month, a requirement of Egypt's lending program with the IMF, should reduce foreign investors' concerns that investments could be trapped in Egypt,” the agency said in a statement picked up by Reuters. Fitch notes that the banking sector’s FX-denominated loan-deposit ratio is still too high despite falling 3.7 bps in 1Q17, but expects these to given the weak operating environment and a falling EGP.
Other analysts, however, believe that the move to end transfer caps will add pressure to the EGP. The threat appears to come from foreign companies repatriating profits, according to Capital Economics’ Jason Tuvey. “Look at the historical moves of the EGP. You can feel the pressure is coming,” he added. “It could be the moment of truth of Egypt’s currency. Egypt’s monetary supply has been growing by about 20% per year, while GDP has hovered below 4%. That means the EGP is losing approximately 16% of its value every year,” Focus Economy said in a research note picked up by Daily News Egypt. The risks to investors posed by a floating currency, comes from the potential for investors playing the market to lose their capital, should the currency swing dramatically, according to the report. But, in the case of Egypt, the convergence of the currency’s official exchange rate and its black market rate should give investors the confidence that the worst of the fluctuations are over.”
These concerns appear to be far-fetched considering Egypt’s growing net FX reserves. A report by MENA news agency citing CBE officials claim FX inflows reached USD 54 bn since the EGP was floated back in November. The banking sector had drawn in USD 20 bn, while USD 25 bn came from foreign funding by multilateral finance institutions and other sources. Foreign investors chipped in with USD 9 bn. Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasrtold Reuters on Monday that Egypt has received USD 6.5 bn in foreign direct investment in the 9M2016-17, and expects more than USD 10 bn in the next fiscal year starting in July.
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INVESTMENT WATCH - Enppi listing to kick off state IPO program in two months: It seems that a tentative deadline of September has been set for the IPO of state-owned Enppi, as Prime Minister Sherif Ismail announced that the listing will take place in two months’ time at a press conference on Monday, according to Youm7. The cabinet’s economic group had discussed the state’s IPO yesterday, where it gave a preliminary nod yesterday to a list of potential candidates for the program put together by state-owned investment bank NI Capital. The government is considering listing 49% of Banque du Caire, whose IPO will be managed by EFG Hermes and HSBC. The Middle East Oil Refinery (MIDOR), has also been slated for an IPO.
Ismail also announced that the revised executive regulations for the newly-issued Investment Act should be ready by August. The House of Representatives’ Economics Committee is currently reviewing the draft, which was unveiled last week, and intends to send its remarks back to the cabinet by Wednesday, Al Mal says. It’s worth noting that the cabinet does not need parliamentary approval to begin implementing the regs.
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Oil Ministry announces results of EMRA’s gold exploration tender: Four companies, including two foreign ones, have won the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority’s gold mining exploration tender for five concessions in the Eastern Desert and the Sinai Peninsula, Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla said in a statement on Monday. The UK’s Veritas Mining Limited won exploration rights to the Omm Ras concession, while Ghassan Spain Investment was awarded the Dahab concession. Egypt's East Gas Company took home the Omm Oud and Hangaliya concession, while Resolute Egypt won both the Boukary and Omm Samra concession. The tender had been unpopular among a number of mining companies as a result EMRA’s insistence on production sharing agreements, with Centamin, Aton Resources, and Thani Stratex, the three largest mining companies in Egypt, refusing to bid. It had been reported back in April that 14 Egyptian and International companies had participated in the tender. The results were expected last month.
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Private sector hikes prices in response to the fuel subsidy cuts: Food producers are days away from announcing new prices that are expected to be 10-15% higher, industry executives tell Al Borsa. The move comes as part of a series of measures companies are taking to offset production costs as a result of last Thursday’s fuel hikes. These include adjusting profit margin projections and increasing exports, improving packaging and marketing capabilities, and decreasing the size and weight of products.
The auto industry is way ahead of the food sector on that with a number of companies raising prices on cars. GB Auto marked up its Hyundai and Geely models by EGP 1,600-8,000, Al Mal said on Monday, while Al-Mansour Automotive added some EGP 2,400-9,000 to the price of its Chevrolet brands. The move is expected to exacerbate the slump in auto sales driving it down by as much as 40% in the coming months, Egyptian Automotive Dealers Association head Osama Aboul Magd tells Youm7. The price hikes might also change the market dynamics from the demand-side as consumers will be looking for models that offer them higher fuel efficiency, El Masria Auto CEO Shady Rayan says.
Fertilizer companies’ hopes to raise price were thwarted as the government reportedly denied their request yesterday to raise product prices by EGP 500-1000 per tonne, the newspaper adds. Authorities will be paying the additional cost of EGP 3 mn a month to transport some 200k tonnes of fertilizers to avoid passing on costs to farmers, Agricultural Union head Mamdouh Hamada says.
The government has been making efforts to coordinate with the private sector to limit the inflation, which, according to Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk is expected to rise by 3-4.5%. Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy and members of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce agreed during a Monday meeting that shipping and good transport fees should not rise by more than 10% in response to the most recent hike in fuel prices, Al Mal reports. The Finance Ministry also decided to relieve the shipping and unloading of imported goods from the value-added tax — backtracking on a decision it had issued early in June — in a possible effort to keep shipping costs lower, according to Al Mal.
Meanwhile, the MPs who never tire of grandstanding are asking for price controls, according to AMAY. Some, such as MP Mohamed Elsewedy, also demanded that the government pay farmers higher prices for agricultural products such as barley, sugarcane, and beets to offset the effects of inevitable inflation.
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Administrative Court ruling could force government to pay out unemployment benefits: The Supreme Administrative Court issued a verdict on Monday that could force the Sherif Ismail government to pay out unemployment benefits under its social welfare package, Al Shorouk reports. The right to unemployment benefits is guaranteed by article 17 of the 2014 constitution and articles four and five of the 2010 Social Welfare Act, the court ruling states. The verdict pertains to a lawsuit filed in 2014 by two Egyptian men in their twenties who claim to be unable to find suitable work, the newspaper adds. The government has yet to officially respond to the verdict, but with Egypt’s soaring unemployment rates and budget constraints, unemployment benefits could prove a challenging task for the state.
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EFSA implements amendments to general assembly provisions Companies Law amendments: The Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) began enforcing on Monday amendments to the Companies Act mandating that listed companies issue their first call for a general assembly at least 21 days in advance rather than 15 previously, Al Borsa reports.
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Amazon has completed its acquisition of Souq.com, the Dubai-based online retailer said on Monday. The company said that the firms now would work on the "next phase of the integration to bring more products and offerings to the region's customers even faster." Users can now also log into their website using their Amazon account, the company added. No official acquisition figure has been disclosed, but the Associated Press is noting that the transaction had beat out Emaar Malls PJSC’s bid of USD 800 mn bid for Souq.com, which it announced in a filing on the Dubai Financial Market.
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Orascom Construction (OC) signed a USD 100 mn contract to build a 650 MW steam turbine power plant in Assiut’s Walidiya, according to a filing with the EGX. OC is mandated with the full civil work for the plant. OC had completed a USD 420 mn project in cooperation with General Electric to convert a plant in Assiut into a combined-cycle plant.
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Abraaj Group plans to acquire 100% of Kenya-based coffeehouse and dining chain Java House from private equity firm Emerging Capital Partners (ECP), and the Company’s founder and chairman, Kevin Ashley, the company announced in a statementon Monday. Java House, which runs three flagship brands, runs 60 stores across 10 cities in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP and Bowmans in Kenya were tapped as legal advisors, while PricewaterhouseCoopers will act as financial and tax advisors to Abraaj on the transaction, whose size had not been disclosed yet.
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Market trends show Egypt’s property boom looks set to continue on the back of demand from abroad: Egypt’s property boom appears to show no signs of slowing down, particularly since the EGP float, according to OLX Egypt’s most recent report (pdf). The appeal appears to be significant among foreign investors and expats, with traffic of online searches for property in Egypt from the GCC reaching 51%. The report, which ran a comparative analysis between Cairo and Dubai, suggests that the decreased purchasing power of the EGP is driving this influx. The cost of living index in Dubai is approximately 186.15% higher than in Cairo, with the value of apartments for sale being seven times greater and where rent prices are almost six times more expensive. Overall, Egyptians spent a total of 65 mn minutes perusing for real estate on OLX Property in 2016, with top locations searched being Nasr city, Maadi, Sheikh Zayed City, Heliopolis and the Fifth Settlement. “These results demonstrate the Egyptian property trend moving towards urbanization, as property seekers are on the look-out for areas such as Fifth Settlement and Sheikh Zayed where the long-term investment is worthwhile as prices are always on the rise,” said the report.
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The tourism industry’s revival continued in May with the number of tourists visiting Egypt in May increasing 32.9% year-on-year, according to a CAPMAS report picked by Youm7. The number of nights tourists spent in Egypt increased by 145.8% y-o-y in May to 5.9 mn nights, up from 2.4 mn during the same month last year. Hotel occupancy rates also rose to 45.2% in April 2017, compared to 20% in April last year.
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CORRECTION - In yesterday’s issue we had mistakenly referred to Mohamed Elsewedy as the CEO of Elsewedy Electric in our Talk Shows segment. The President and CEO of Elsewedy Electric is Ahmed Elsewedy. Mohamed Elsewedy is the head of the Federation of Egyptian Industries and the leader of the Support Egypt coalition in the House of Representatives — and its largest coalition. Our apologies for the oversight.
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