Foreign reserves charting new highs: The central bank’s net international reserves increasedto USD 36.143 bn in August, up fractionally from the previous all-time high of USD 36.036 bn in July. The CBE had cashed out some USD 3 bn to meet Egypt’s foreign debt obligations in July and August, including some to the Paris Club, CBE Deputy Governor Rami Aboul Naga told Al Borsa on Wednesday. A CBE official had told Bloomberg on Tuesday that Egypt cleared its foreign-trade and import FX backlog, clearing some USD 49 bn in trade-financing transactions between the EGP float and August.
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The good news continues: August’s Markit / Emirates NBD PMI for Egypt rose to a “joint” 23-month high with a reading of 48.9 as export orders “rose sharply.” The PMI also pointed to the weakest contraction in output in the 23-month period as new export work increased markedly. “Egypt’s PMI improved further in August, although it remains in contraction territory at 48.9. New orders declined only marginally after stabilizing in July, and new export orders increased at the fastest rate since May. Inflationary pressure remained high in August however, as electricity tariffs were increased last month,” Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research at Emirates NBD, commented. The report notes that the rate of reduction in output was only marginal, as “panellists commented that higher cost inflationary pressures and unfavourable economic conditions caused the fall in business activity.” Also, “hopes of better economic conditions and stabilisation in currency markets boosted positive sentiment, with the level of confidence the strongest observed in six months.”
…We are in “caution territory,” Emirates NBD Group Head of Research and Chief Economist Tim Fox, tells Bloomberg TV. He says that while the economy is benefiting from export orders, the domestic economy remains lacklustre because of high interest rates (runtime 01:56).
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Tax revenues for FY2016-17 exceed targets for the first time ever by around a third: Egypt exceeded its targeted tax revenues for the first time ever in FY2016-17 by as much as 33%, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy said on Wednesday, confirming what Vice Minister of Finance Amr El Monayer had suggested last month. El Garhy did not disclose the actual figure, saying the official announcement is only a few days away. The amount, though, is likely to surpass the EGP 473.2 bn target set by the IMF for the USD 12 bn loan agreement Egypt signed last year and the EGP 450 bn El Garhy had estimated in July. Al Mal’s calculations place the figure around EGP 575 bn, based on forecasted tax revenues of EGP 433 bn in the FY2016-17 state budget. Egypt had implemented the value-added tax for the first time in the last fiscal year at a baseline rate of 13% that rose to 14% at the start of FY2017-18 in July, which is expected to help the Finance Ministry collect a projected EGP 604 bn in taxes during the year. Other fiscal policy and structural amendments, such as the new stamp tax on capital market transactions and the Tax Dispute Resolution Act are also seen driving an increase in tax collections for the fiscal year.
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Egypt told Russia that it’s ready to sign an aviation security protocol that should “theoretically” precede the resumption of air travel between Cairo and Moscow, Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov said yesterday, according to Sputnik. “We are preparing proposals for the resumption of flights, but only to Cairo so far. Regular or charter [flights] — it will depend on the interests of companies, both Russian and Egyptian,” the minister said. This comes one day after Sokolov said that further inspections for Cairo International Airport will not be necessary, confirming that the decision now rests on the Russian government. This coincided with news that President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had sealed the final contracts on the Dabaa nuclear power plant.
The Bear giveth, and The Bear taketh away: Just as we are seeing potential progress on the resumption of flights (as opposed to faux progress we’ve been hearing for two years), Moscow has apparently postponed the signing of an agreement to establish an industrial zone in Port Said until early 2018, according to Russian Trade Minister Denis Manturov. The agreement is being revised and amended, Manturov said, adding that he doesn’t expect the process to take too long. Sound familiar?
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The Ismail government is planning to send legislation regulating small- and medium-sized enterprises to the House of Representatives when MPs reconvene in October, Al Borsa reports. The House SMEs Committee will merge the incoming law with another SMEs bill that was referred to parliament during its most recent session, committee head Hala Abul Saad says. The article provides no details on either law, but the House had been waiting on Cabinet to send over a law on taxing SMEs last October, and the Ismail government had also approved decisions to establish sole proprietorships in August 2016.
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The Ismail cabinet gave the green light yesterday to an amended Water Act, according to an official statement. The law outlines how water is distributed, who has the right to use it, and new regulations for Egypt’s sewage systems. The act first emerged back in 2014, and has been amended, killed off, and resurrected several times since. The Irrigation Ministry had completed the latest draft of the bill in June to tackle issues such as the impact of climate change and dangerously high pollution levels in our dwindling water resources. The minister's’ agenda did not include the executive regulations for the law on repossession of illegally occupied land, which Ismail had said would be discussed during the meeting. Other decisions taken during the meeting include:
- Granting preliminary approval to transferring supervision of oil and gas production in Ras Fanar to the Egyptian General Petroleum Company, until legislation is issued to govern the region;
- Ratifying a 2015 presidential decree to join the UN’s International Agreement on Olive Oil and Table Olives, which sets international standards for olive oils.
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Egypt, Vietnam target growing bilateral trade to USD 1 bn: Egypt and Vietnam want to triple bilateral trade to USD 1 bn, with a focus on shipbuilding, IT, maritime transport, manufacturing, and agriculture, according to an Ittihadiya statement (pdf). The announcement came during President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit to Hanoi, the first by an Egyptian head of state to the Southeast Asian nation. “Vietnam is committed to facilitating the entry of Egyptian goods in Vietnam and welcomes the Egyptian President’s support for the import of Vietnamese products,” Vietnamese President Trần Đại Quangsaid, according to Vietnam News Agency.
El Sisi and Quang also presided over the signing of nine MoUs in Hanoi yesterday. The agreements pertain to cooperation in trade and industry, maritime trade, promoting investments, fish farming, building and managing ports and economic zones, and media. The two sides also agreed to set up programs for cooperation in tourism and culture.
El Sisi sat down with Quang in a closed session to discuss counterterrorism cooperation, then met with Prime Minister Nguyễn Phú Trọng to discuss increasing business and cultural cooperation, according to an Ittihadiya statement (pdf). The president, who’s also attending a business forum today, invited the Vietnamese leaders to visit Egypt.
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EARNINGS WATCH- Eastern Tobacco restated its FY2016-17 net profit after tax to EGP 1.78 bn, from the EGP 1.74 bn it reported in July, according to an EGX filing.
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M&A WATCH- Amazon subsidiary Souq.com has acquired Wing.ae, a startup that is building out a network for Prime-style same-day and next-day deliveries for various e-commerce marketplaces, according to TechCrunch’s Ingrid Lunden. Lunden says “Souq and Amazon are buying into a startup that will help them stay ahead in an area that has been one of Amazon’s traditional strengths, logistics” and Wing.ae can “also potentially can help Amazon build out its Prime business into the region.” The financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli-Arab relations are at their best ever, according to the AP. Netanyahu said that even though a deal with the Palestinian side isn’t close it hasn’t affected relations with Arabs even if their extent remains out of the public eye.
Other international stories worth noting in brief this morning:
- The United States wants the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on North Korea’s most lucrative exports and set an oil embargo, according to Reuters. A draft resolution is ready and the US may push it as early as Monday. The resolution aims to block oil imports and ban exports of textiles and labourers.
- A draft bill presented at a French cabinet meeting Wednesday proposes to end exploration concessions and halt all oil and gas production by 2040, Bloomberg reports. If passed the law would allow the government to halt 40 exploration requests that have already been made as well as limiting extensions on production licenses.
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