It’s going to be a day of foreign policy headlines in Egypt, if a spate of news yesterday and overnight is any indicator:
US Vice President’s Middle East tour is back on this month: US Vice President Mike Pence’s delayed Middle East tour of Egypt, Jordan and Israel is back on for later this month, the White House announced on Monday. Pence will kick-off the tour in Egypt on 20 January, where he will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, reads the statement. The tour will “address the shared need to combat terrorism and assist persecuted religious minorities,” the White House says, but you can also expect the US recognition of Jerusalem will play in talks when Pence meets El Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. US President Donald Trump unnecessarily stirred up a hornet’s nest last month when he followed his Jerusalem announcement by saying he would cut US funding to United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine if the Palestinians do not go back to the negotiating table. Pence, a strong supporter of Trump’s decision on Jerusalem, will also visit the city’s Western Wall and give a speech at the Israeli parliament. A number of Egypt’s religious figures, including Pope Tawadros and the head of Al Azhar, have announced they will not meet with Pence in protest of the Jerusalem decision.
Meanwhile, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki arrives in Cairo today to meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The two presidents will almost undoubtedly look into the impasse between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the wider regional Cold War which appears to have drawn in Ethiopia’s main regional rival Eritrea. Afwerki and his accompanying delegation will also sit down today with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and General Intelligence Directorate head Khaled Fawzy. Afwerki arrives after Sudan closed its border with his country — and after an unconfirmed report that Egypt has sent troops to his nation with UAE backing, as we noted yesterday.
As for Ethiopia, the country has yet to respond to Egypt’s proposal to include the World Bank in GERD negotiations as an impartial third party, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said yesterday, Al Mal reports. Shoukry had initially presented the suggestion during a visit to Addis Ababa last month in hopes of resolving the impasse between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia after the latter two countries refused to ratify the results of environmental impact studies on the dam. The World Bank reportedly gave a preliminary nod to the suggestion last week, and will reach a final decision this month. Egypt is committed to avoiding tension over the negotiations, which are currently focused on the technical aspects of the dam, Shoukry reaffirmed.
It’s against that backdrop that El Sisi said yesterday that Egypt is taking preemptive steps to ensure it does not end up facing a water crisis. The president made the remarks at an inauguration ceremony for several projects, including a water treatment plant. El Sisi announced that in addition to capitalizing on its share of Nile water, Egypt is working on water treatment and desalination projects worth EGP 70 bn to ensure consumption needs are being met, an Ittihadiya statement says.
All of this comes as Sudan renewed yesterday its complaint to the UN Security Council, once again claiming it has sovereignty over Egypt’s Halayeb triangle, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry said in a statement. It remains unclear whether the complaint calls on the council to take any action against Egypt, whose membership in the council expired at the end of 2017. Tensions have been rising between Khartoum and Cairo for several months over Omar El Bashir’s government using the GERD talks to push its claim to the Halayeb Triangle. Playing the Halayeb card is also a useful tool for Khartoum to detract attention from ongoing bread riots. Sudan withdrew its ambassador to Egypt last week for “consultations,” as we noted yesterday.
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Elections committee announces timetable for 2018 presidential poll: The National Elections Committee (NEC) announced yesterday at a press conference that Egyptians will head to the polls to elect a president on 26-28 March, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Egyptians abroad will cast their ballots roughly a week earlier, over a three-day period. Candidates must register between 20 and 29 January. In the event of no single candidate wins a majority the first time around, a runoff will take place 24-26 April, commission head Lasheen Ibrahim said. First round results will be announced on 2 April. In the event of a run-off, the final results will be announced on 1 May.
Ibrahim also announced the conditions by which foreign observers will be allowed to monitor the elections, according to Al Shorouk. Observers will be allowed to monitor polling stations for a period of no more than half an hour, which can be reduced by NEC supervisors if deemed necessary. Polling stations can only be observed once, according to a decision by the committee. Organizations and civil society groups must apply at the election’s online portal of www.elections.eg between 15 and 19 January. Organizations must have had prior experience monitoring elections in other countries.
The global press is not over the Shafik circus: The international press has already begun casting doubt on the elections, in no small measure thanks to the media circus and antics of former Civil Aviation Minister and bench-warmer Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. The announcement of the schedule comes just one day after Shafik announced he would not run. Even his withdrawal continues to draw controversy as hislawyer told the New York Times that the decision came as a result of pressure from the government. This statement was quickly denied by members of Shafik’s political party, which said that the announcement was made “with complete conviction,” Al Bawaba reports. The rest of the international press, including Bloomberg and Reuters, focused on the slim chances of potential candidates other than President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, including lawyer Khaled Ali whose, bid may be tossed out if he loses an appeal of his conviction of engaging in lewd public gesture.
What about local elections? The House of Representatives will vote on the Local Administration Act, which establishes elected local councils, before the summer recess, House Speaker Ali Abel Aal said, according to Al Mal.
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LEGISLATION WATCH- The House of Representatives’ winter agenda includes legislation on new pharma regulator, ride-hailing apps, cybercrimes, victims of terrorism, quota for women in the judiciary, among others, according to stories out yesterday.
Law establishing new pharma sector regulator with cabinet next week: A draft law establishing a regulator for the pharma sector will make it to the Ismail cabinet’s meeting next week, Health Minister Ahmed Rady said on Monday, according to Al Borsa. “The law would set out to fix some of the glaring issues with the pharma sector,” Rady had said without diving into specifics. Plans for Pharma Regulator Act had been in the works since early in 2016, with the House of Representatives’ Healthcare Committee announcing that year that it was drafting a bill to establish a new market regulator at a time of widespread reports of meds shortages. At the time the committee had said that the regulator will have wide ranging authority over the industry, including responsibility for quality control and distribution policies as well as exports.
The proposed regulator would be an independent agency reporting to cabinet and not the Health Ministry, according to an earlier draft. The law is being drafted by the ministries of health and justice “with input from industry experts.”
Laws trickling out of State Council after reviews: In other legislative news, the Council of State (Maglis El Dawla) has completed its review of the Ride-hailing Apps Act and the Cyber Crimes Act ahead of their being introduced in the House of Representatives, council sources tell Al Borsa. Both laws await final sign-off by the Ismail cabinet as early as today before going on the agenda in the House. As we noted last month, a number of industry sources have complained that the Ride-hailing Apps Act would disrupt the industry (and not in a good way) by ensuring that half of the fleets of apps such as Uber and Careem be made up of white taxis, imposing a licensing pricing scheme that favors taxi drivers, while allowing only a six-month compliance period. The Council also completed reviewing a law that would set up a fund to care for the victims of acts of terrorism.
Meanwhile, the House of Representatives approved in a plenary session amendments to the Agriculture Act that toughen sanctions for misuse of agricultural land. Under the changes, those who use agricultural land for non-agriculture developments could see jail time of up to two years and fines of up to EGP 50,000, according to Al Masry Al Youm.
And in a surprisingly enlightened move, House Speaker Ali Abdel Aal referred to committee a draft law that would set a quota for the appointment of women to the judicial branch of government, Al Shorouk reports.
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M&A WATCH- French appliances manufacturer Groupe SEB announced that it is partnering with Egypt’s Zahran Group to merge their electrical appliances and cookware businesses in Egypt, the company announced in a statement on Monday (pdf). Groupe SEB hopes the new entity, Groupe SEB Egypt Zahran, will help strengthen and grow its local manufacturing base and export sales. Groupe SEB will hold a 55% in the new JV, while Zahran will hold a 45% stake. Both companies had set up Groupe SEB Egypt back in 2013 to produce and sell small electrical appliances primarily under the Moulinex and Tefal brands. Beltone Financial and Zaki Hashem and Partners advised Zahran Group on the transaction, which is still awaiting regulatory approval, while Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and Matouk Bassiouny served as advisors to Groupe SEB.
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Egypt is forecast to be one of the world’s top two exporters of oranges for the 2017-18 season, according to an excellent report by the United States Department of Agriculture (pdf). The report has Egypt in second in a worst case scenario, even though in terms of production we are ranked sixth. Egyptian exports are finding traction on the back of increased competitiveness post-devaluation of the EGP. Egypt exports roughly 50% of its orange production and is rivaled only by Spain in its bid for the world number one slot. Spanish exports for the season are contingent upon its production capacity, which could be hindered by a drier season. The top importers of Egyptian oranges are expected to be Russia, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, and China. Citrus exporters have recently been vocal on their expectations for a good season.
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Talaat Moustafa Group Holdings announced what it says are its highest sales since 2008, saying in a note sent to the bourse that sales for 2017 clocked in at EGP 13.11 bn. The sales figure shows a 100.1% increase from 2016’s tally of EGP 6.55 bn. TMG says the sales figure is the largest since 2008 and includes EGP 3.63 generated from commercial and administrative sales.
In other news from the sector, the master plan for Taj City has received approval from the Prime Minister’s office, Madinet Nasr Housing and Development (MNHD) announced. The approval allows the company to launch the non-residential components of the Taj city project, including a hotel area, MNHD says.
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Next round of PPP school tenders to be launched this month with only four remaining bidders: The government plans to announce the next stage of the tender to develop and run 200 public-private partnership schools this month, sources tell Al Borsa. Four companies had qualified to submit their financial offers for the schools, including Middle East Education Services Group and a joint bid from Egypt’s Gezira Academy and Saudi Arabia’s Madinat Al Oloum. Offers are expected to be reviewed this week by state-owned investment bank NI Capital. We noted back in October that 10 companies had submitted bids, but a number of major players had backed out of the key project, including arms of Orascom Construction, Carillion and BPE Partners.
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The Transport Ministry plans to hike railway tickets by 20-25% and will also raise prices on shorter train runs, minister Hisham Arafat announced yesterday. The short-distance train routes are the biggest drain of resources at Egyptian National Railways, Arafat said, explaining that the price hikes will help support upgrades and new railway projects that will cost north of EGP 52 bn by 2022. ENR’s budget deficit is also widening, with its revenues hovering around EGP 2.2 bn against expenditures of EGP 5.5 bn. While the minister did not give a time frame for the planned price hikes, he had said last month that they would be implemented by the end of June.
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The electricity and environment ministries have reportedly agreed to set the feed-in tariff for waste-to-energy projects at EGP 1.30 per kWh produced from agricultural waste and EGP 1.60 per kWh produced from solid waste, unidentified sources tell Al Mal. The Environment Ministry is looking to pay EGP 1 per kWh and have the Finance Ministry cover the remaining costs, the sources say. Government sources had alleged in November that the Electricity Ministry set EGP 1.35 per kWh as the maximum FiT for WtE projects. Earlier reports had emerged that the Ismail Cabinet was looking to set a three-tier tariff system, with the highest rate being EGP 1.60 per kWh.
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CORRECTION-Ali Okda was appointed CEO of Travco Travel Company of Egypt, not Travco Group as we noted yesterday. We’ve corrected the entry on our website. H/t Yara S.
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