Non-oil private sector activity picks up to its highest level in three years

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What We're Tracking Today

Raya IT’s long-awaited IPO planned for October

Good morning, friends. Business news at home and abroad is off to a slow start this week. Nevertheless, we’ve got news you can’t afford to miss, with reports of some big-ticket investments from some familiar faces in the pipeline, encouraging data that Egypt’s non-oil private sector is nearing growth after 43 straight months of contraction, and much, much more for you today.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Raya IT to make its EGX debut in October: Raya Holding will go ahead with its IT arm Raya Information Technology’s long-awaited IPO on the EGX in October, Raya Holding CFO Hossam Hussein, told Al Borsa. The subsidiary’s listing is one of three — Raya IT, Raya for Trade and Distribution, and Aman Consumer Finance — that Raya has been putting on hold until market conditions are better suited for the offering, Hussien elaborated.

It’s coming later than we first heard: The company said in December that it plans to offer 30-35% of its IT arm on the bourse in 1H 2024, before signaling that its plans were on hold until the “market is ready to accommodate new offerings.” Raya has already wrapped up all of the necessary listing requirements last year, and tapped our friends at EFG Hermes to quarterback the transaction.

PSA-

The countdown to the long weekend has begun: Public and private sector workers will be off on Thursday, 11 July, in observance of the Islamic New Year. Banks will be closed on Thursday for the holiday, according to a statement from the central bank seen by Enterprise.

And that includes us folks here at EnterpriseAM Egypt, who will be taking a break from your inboxes this Thursday and will be back bright and early on Sunday with all the local business news and updates from the long weekend.

WEATHER- It’s another summery day in Cairo today, with a high of 38°C and a low of 25°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a fair bit cooler in Alexandria and the North Coast, with a high of 31°C and a low of 22°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Want to subscribe? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

FX WATCH-

Bank of America weighs in on the fair value of the EGP: The current USD/EGP exchange rate is close to the fair value of the EGP, according to a Bank of America report picked up by Mubasher. The bank sees the EGP strengthening against the greenback over the short term to reflect FX inflows picking up and helping bridge our balance of payments deficit.

Remember: The USD breached the EGP 48 level in late June for the first time since April, pressured by a pileup of orders for FX after Egyptian banks closed for the Eid Al Adha break. The EGP has since recovered slightly and is selling just for just over the 48 mark after three consecutive sessions in the green.

DATA POINT-

The recently secured batch of 20 LNG shipments is coming with a price tag of up to USD 910 mn: The 20 LNG shipments state gas firm EGAS secured late last month — its largest in years — reportedly cost the state between USD 880-910 mn, Al Mal reports citing sources it says are in the know.

The suppliers: Saudi Aramco and multinational commodities trader Trafigura were among the winners of the tender, according to Al Mal’s sources added. BP and an East Mediterranean Gas Company subsidiary will each supply five of the shipments, Asharq Business reported last week, citing two anonymous officials from the Oil Ministry.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US presidential election is once again front and center in the global business press, with pressure on Joe Biden to quit the race for the White House continuing to build nine days after his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump. His first televised post-debate interview over the weekend with ABC News (watch, runtime: 31:23) failed to quell concerns about his age and ability to secure a second term in the White House, with the Wall Street Journal describing Biden’s defiant tone as a president in denial .

Major donors, political strategists, elected officials, and rank-and-file party members are calling on Biden to “pass the torch,” but Biden has knuckled down, telling ABC that only “the Lord almighty” could convince him to drop out of the race.

The year of elections is continuing to live up to its name elsewhere in the world, with Iran electing Masoud Pezeshkian to the presidency — the country first reformist president in two decades. Over in the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer has formed a government after a Labour Party landslide that saw the Conservative Party’s worst result in nearly two centuries.

In our corner of the world, a temporary Gaza ceasefire may once again be in reach, after Hamas accepted a US proposal to open talks on the release of Israeli hostages and dropped its long-standing demand that Israel agree to a permanent ceasefire before inking any agreement. Israeli and US delegations are set to arrive in Egypt to discuss a truce, an unnamed high-level government official told Al Qahera News.

With little to no business news in sight this morning, some outlets have picked on how European exports of cognac have allegedly become the latest casualty in the tit-for-tat trade war between the EU and China, according to comments yesterday from the finance head of luxury goods conglomerate and Hennesy cognac parent company LVMH. The EU’s third largest market for exports announced that it would hold a hearing on an anti-dumping probe into cognac from the bloc on Friday, two days after the bloc raised tariffs on Chinese-made EVs from some manufacturers by up to 38%.

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Egypt’s non-oil private sector sees order volumes rise for the first time in three years as sector nears growth

Business activity just shy of growth in June: Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity picked up to its highest level in nearly three years in June, with companies seeing a rise in order volumes for the first time in three years due to easing price pressures and stabilizing economic conditions, the S&P Global’s Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (pdf ) showed.

Almost growing: The index edged up to 49.9 in June, up from 49.6 in May, settling marginally below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction — an indication of “broadly stable operating conditions at the end of the second quarter.” The reading was the country’s highest in three years and marked the 43rd straight month of Egypt’s non-oil private sector has been in contraction.

Orders are on the up for the first time in 34 months: New orders increased in June for the first time since August 2021. However, the increase was mainly seen in the manufacturing and service sectors, while construction and wholesale and retail reported declines.

Domestic and international demand are both helping drive the trend: The increase in orders was driven by “improving conditions in both domestic and international markets,” with firms reporting a “sharp increase in new export orders in June, the strongest recorded in two-and-a-half years.”

Output is also showing signs of recovery: While output levels in the non-oil private sector continued to fall, they did so at their “softest rate in three years.” Also potentially pointing to a soon-to-come increase in output was input purchases by volume increasing for the first since the end of 2021.

Despite improvements, business confidence fell to an all time low: Confidence in future activity fell to its lowest seen on record as volatile financial conditions leave firms uncertain about what’s next. This led to many companies cutting their workforces, but overall employment levels remained stable during June as other companies hired new workers in response to rising sales.

The story was also picked up by the international press: Reuters.

FROM THE REGION-

Saudi Arabia’s PMI slowed to 55.0 in June (pdf) from 56.4 in May;
The UAE’s PMI slipped to 54.6 in June (pdf) from 55.3 in May;
Kuwait’s PMI inched down to 51.6 in June (pdf) from 52.4 in May;
Qatar’s PMI rose to a 23-month high of 55.9 in June (pdf) up from 53.6 in May.

Coffee With: Matteo Patrone, VP of banking at the EBRD

COFFEE WITH: Matteo Patrone, VP of banking at the EBRD. Last week was a busy one for European investments, with Egypt hosting the two-day Egypt-EU Investment Conference, bringing together over 1k private sector players and government officials from both sides and garnering some EUR bns in investments. The conference shed light on Egyptian-European relations and the long-standing relationship between Egypt and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Fairly new to his position as VP of banking, Patrone (LinkedIn) touched down in Egypt last week — for his first visit to Egypt in his current post — to attend the conference. We sat down with him to learn more about his expectations for the conference and whether or not it achieved the desired outcome. We also threw in some questions about the EBRD’s role in the Egyptian economy and what we can expect from the economy moving forward.

Enterprise: What did you walk into the conference expecting to see — did you have any preconceptions?

Matteo Patrone: The conference, for me, was really the perfect occasion to conduct my introduction to Egypt. This is a country that I visited on a personal basis, but never worked in my time at the EBRD. So having this kind of gathering is a very efficient way of getting to know the people, getting a sense of the strategic direction of the authorities, and getting some input from our partners — their take on where the country is going and particularly where the economy is going.

E: Egypt inked some EUR 67.7 bn worth of agreements and MoUs during the conference — EUR 49 bn with EU-affiliated entities and EUR 18.7 bn with non EU-affiliated entities. What can the government do to ensure the implementation of these projects?

MP: The government was very clear at the conference about the direction of travel — higher private sector participation in the economy and in overall investments in the country. So, we are following closely the implementation of the State Ownership Policy and the program on monetising assets, and we are working with different institutions in Egypt — such as the Sovereign Fund of Egypt — to assess how the EBRD can support the work being done in this program in a way that delivers higher levels of competitiveness and governance standards.

As I have seen in other markets, predictability and consistency of signals and positive momentum in the reform agenda spur strong interest from major, serious investors — whether institutional or industrial. We are also following the government’s policies on leveling the playing field for the private sector, which is key for incentivising long-term private investment, and we stand ready to support the government’s various agencies in these efforts.

E: What are the most attractive sectors to EU investors?

MP: Egypt’s demographics and human capital make some sectors highly attractive, for example: agri and food & beverage value chain, healthcare, education, and others. Also, Egypt has a lot of experience and a strong base in manufacturing in some important domestic and export sectors and in the context of nearshoring trends, we see several openings for international — especially European — players to have their industrial hubs in Egypt. And of course, as the economy grows — and the private sector’s share in total investments in the economy grows — there would be many chances in financial services. There are promising developments here. Fintech has been growing impressively in the past few years. Egypt's energy potential is immense, and I see a major room for growth in green investment.

E: What was the EBRD’s role during the conference?

MP: We signed two concrete transactions with our long-term partner CIB for a total of EUR 60 mn — one for on-lending to local women-led businesses and the other to fund the green transition.

We will continue investing to that tune of EUR 1-1.5 bn a year in Egypt supporting the real economy with a focus on the green transition, financial inclusion, and supporting competitiveness and resilience. The majority of our investments, 90% last year, are in the private sector. But we also realize that there are some infrastructure investments that enable private sector development that can be conducted only by the state and we stand ready to support them.

E: The bank is Egypt’s lead partner on the energy pillar of the Nexus for Water, Food and Energy (NWFE) program — what does the bank have in the pipeline for our energy sector?

MP: It’s a twofold approach to the energy sector. On one hand, we finance private sector investments in green energy, be it solar or wind, with additional investments in green hydrogen. On the other hand, if we want to increase the presence of renewable energy in the energy mix of the country, we need to make sure that the grid is resilient and is able to dispatch the energy produced by wind farms and solar power plants. That is an investment that only the public sector can do. We are willing to support the government in that area.

E: Egypt’s new cabinet was sworn in last Wednesday — what does that mean for the country in terms of its strategic direction?

MP: In the last few months, the macroeconomic situation has stabilized and investor confidence started coming back. So there is positive momentum and I think the new team is clearly tasked to seize that momentum in partnership with the private sector, both local and foreign.

E: What should the new cabinet prioritize, particularly in terms of private sector partnerships and economic reforms?

MP: I think three areas are critically important: the consolidation of the stabilization of the macroeconomic and macro financial situation in the country, the continuation of the reform agenda, and the privatization of a number of state-owned enterprises. There are a number of openings to be seized together with international partners and foreign direct investors.

E: The EBRD in May cut our growth forecast for 2024 by 0.6 percentage points to 3.9%. With the laundry list of decisions taken over the past months — the float of the EGP, major rate hike, a cap on public spending — should we expect the EBRD to revise upwards our forecast?

MP: I'm sure our economists are looking at this latest trend and if they see signals that would warrant a revision upwards, they will obviously take that into account. But from my perspective, as a long-time investor in the country, I do not focus on short term revisions of GDP expectations. I am more interested in the long-term sustainable growth of the economy that is underpinned by solid macro financial policies and a credible structural reform agenda which are at the base of an attractive business environment.

Macro financial stability is a condition and without it, the growth of GDP cannot be resumed and maintained in a sustainable way. I am sure this is very much at the top of the agenda of the new government in cooperation with international partners such as the EU and the IMF.

Maintenance of the reform agenda is absolutely crucial because it sends a signal of continuity and predictability to foreign direct investors, and this is particularly important at this moment when we have turned the page.

More private sector involvement, industrial development, and transparency on the new Egyptian cabinet’s agenda

What can we expect from the new Madbouly cabinet? Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly held a presser on Thursday a day after his ne w cabinet was sworn in and took office. Madbouly’s statement gave us an overview of the new government’s list of priorities and its upcoming plans.

#1- More private sector involvement: The government aims to increase the private sector’s contribution to the overall economy to more than 65% of total investments over the coming two to three years, Madbouly said. The cabinet will also continue carrying out economic reforms with the aim of increasing foreign direct investment and private sector participation, while reducing the government’s share of total investments in the state.

#2- Industrial development is a matter of “life and death” at the moment, Madbouly said, pointing to the importance of investing in Egypt’s industrial development. He also name-dropped a number of priority sectors that are in need of local and foreign investments — tourism, real estate development, industry, agriculture, and communications.

#3- More clarity and transparency: Madbouly will host weekly pressers following the cabinet’s weekly meeting, usually taking place on Wednesdays, to discuss issues concerning the state and the public. The presser will see the government responding to questions and inquiries from citizens. Another presser that will host media figures and experts will be held every month.

AND- The first we hear from Kouchouk as FinMin. Ahmed Kouchouk held his first meeting as Finance Minister on Friday, during which he highlighted the need to develop and implement financial policies aimed at boosting investments, productions, exports, and private sector involvement. “We need to be more open, flexible, and supportive of local and foreign investors to attract more investments and keep the Egyptian economy moving,” he said.

The nation’s talking heads focussed in on efforts to bring the war in Sudan to an end

It was a mixed bag on the airwaves last night, with the nation’s talking heads focusing on the conference of Sudanese political and civil society figures held in Cairo on Saturday to work towards an end to the war, the health minister’s promise to end meds shortages soon, and the sudden passing of footballer Ahmed Refaat.

A conference in Cairo to work towards ending the war in Sudan kicked off yesterday, with participation from various political entities, including the UN, African Union, Arab League, and European Union, among other key stakeholders, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. The year-long crisis in Sudan and its repercussions require an immediate and permanent halt to all military operations in the country, to pave the way to a comprehensive political solution that meets the Sudanese people’s hopes, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said. Abdelatty added that any genuine political solution to the crisis in Sudan must be based on a purely Sudanese vision emerging from the Sudanese themselves, without external impositions or pressures.

“The Sudanese situation is of significant concern to Egyptians and Egypt's national security,” Lamees El Hadidi said on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 2:37). El Hadidi went on to explain that “Egypt is committed to supporting Sudan despite our economic crisis and limited resources” and that “Egypt is rallying international support for Sudan and playing a crucial political role in attempting to bridge the gap and bring together Sudanese political forces.”

The conference received airtime across the channels, with reports from Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 8:12), Masa DMC (watch, runtime: 3:07), and Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 6:24)

ALSO WORTH NOTING- Supply Minister vows to control prices and improve subsidy distribution: “The first assignment given to me by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is to control prices and ensure that subsidies reach those who need them,” the recently appointed Supply Minister Sherif Farouk told Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 15:15).

AND- Meds shortages to end soon? “The Egyptian Drug Authority and the Egyptian Authority for Unified Procurement have started taking serious steps to address meds shortages and expect to resolve the issue within weeks or at most two months,” Health Minister Khaled Abdel Ghaffar said in a statement aired on Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 3:55). “There is a shortage of meds in the local market, and we are facing challenging and difficult circumstances, with impacts on supply chains both locally and globally,” Abdel Gaffar noted.

PLUS- Modern Sport FC’s football player Ahmed Refaat passed away yesterday following a severe deterioration in his health after suffering a heart attack last March. Lamis El Hadidi described the incident as “shocking” and urged the Sports Ministry and all sports federations to conduct regular heart screenings for players (watch, runtime: 1:05). Moussa also covered the tragic incident (watch, runtime: 21:24), as did Osama Kamal (Masa'a DMC | watch, runtime: 3:46).

Infinity Power eye USD 10.5 bn in renewables, EV infrastructure investments over the next five years. PLUS: British International Investment, Ezdehar, Azimut, Flynas

INVESTMENT-

#1- Infinity has an ambitious five-year investment plan for Egypt: Our friends at renewable player Infinity Power are planning to invest USD 10.5 bn in Egypt over the next five years, CEO Mohamed Mansour told Shorouk News. The company plans to finance 30% of the new investments through internal resources, with the remaining 70% sourced from bank loans, Mansour added.

Wind and solar is the name of the game: The lion’s share of the planned new investments will go towards wind and solar, with USD 10 bn of the total amount set aside for new investments in renewables.

Its EV charging infrastructure is also another priority: Infinity plans to invest USD 500 mn in its electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Egypt over the next five years. As a first step, Infinity will increase the number of charging points from 650 to 1k by the end of the year, serving 10k EVs.

#2- British International Investment to invest up to USD 200 mn in 2024: The UK government’s British International Investment (BII) has set aside USD 100-200 mn it plans to invest in Egypt’s financial sector over 2024, whether in banks or consumer finance and payments companies, Al Mal reports, citing the development finance institution’s Egypt head Sherine Shohdy.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Already in the works: Shohdy told the news outlet that there are several financial institutions currently being considered for financing that starts from USD 20 mn, and goes up depending on the institutions’ size.

#3- Fresh USD 36 mn investments from Ezdehar into food and industry this year: Egypt-based private equity firm Ezdehar Management is in talks with six unnamed companies operating in the foodstuff sector and in industry over fresh investments totalling USD 36 mn in 2024, Managing Director Amir Mishriky told Shorouk News.

Ezdehar investments in Egypt this year are already up 140% y-o-y, amounting to USD 60 mn, up from USD 25 mn in 2023, said Mishriky, explaining that “We currently have investments in nine companies with majority and minority stakes, and we will look into existing some of them next year.”

CAPITAL MARKETS-

Azimut secures FRA license for new investment funds e-platform: Asset manager Azimut has secured a license from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) yesterday to launch Azimut’s in-the-works electronic platform for investment funds dubbed AZ Invest, Al Borsa reports. The platform allows users to invest their money in Azimut-run various investment funds via their phones and other devices.

AVIATION-

From Riyadh to Alamein: Saudi low-cost airline Flynas launched its first flight from Riyadh to Alamein International Airport last Wednesday, becoming the first airline in the region to host scheduled flights to Alamein, the company announced in a press release (pdf).

The S&P 500 is on a tear, and a rate cut could fuel its run. Are US megacaps overvalued?

The S&P 500 remains on a tear, unbothered by drama surrounding the US elections: It has posted gains in nine of the last 11 weeks, Bloomberg notes, including 2% last week as a steady slowdown in the labor market boosted expectations the US Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates as early as September.

By the numbers: The S&P 500 was up 0.54% on Friday to close at 5,567, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.90% to 18,352.76. Both indexes ended the week at record highs after labor data released on Friday showed US unemployment up slightly at 4.1% — its highest November 2021.

Cooler US jobs data could prompt the Fed to start trimming interest rates in the fall, Reuters reported. “This report puts the Fed in a comfortable spot,” said Peter Cardillo, a chief market economist at institutional brokerage firm Spartan Capital Securities. “If this continues next month, with no increases in hourly wages, then I think we'll see a rate cut in September and another one in December.”

Remember: A rate cut will almost-inevitably see investors allocate more capital to equities.

But it may be time to to moderate your expectations for US equities in the coming decade. While valuations are admittedly bad tools to use when trying to time the market, Bloomberg still notes that that the S&P 500 is trading at 26x earnings — higher than on any single election day as far back as 1990. That suggests “the elevated state of equities may be reason to lower expectations for their performance under whoever wins the election in November,” it writes.

A decade of “Meh” in the making? “Today’s lofty valuations for US megacaps suggests significant underperformance over the coming decade, and because they make up such a dominant share, returns for the overall US market are also likely to be pretty muted,” Richard Bernstein Advisors’ deputy chief investment officer, Dan Suzuki, told the business information service.

EGX30	28,365	+0.7% (YTD: +13.9%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.95	Sell 48.09
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.94	Sell 48.04
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	11,659	+0.6% (YTD: -2.6%)
ADX	9,139	+0.2% (YTD: -4.6%)
DFM	4,070	+0.1% (YTD: +0.3%)
S&P 500	5,567	+0.5% (YTD: +16.7%)
FTSE 100	8,204	-0.5% (YTD: +6.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,979	-0.2% (YTD: +10.1%)
Brent crude	USD 86.54	-1.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.32	-4.1%
Gold	USD 2,398	+1.2%
BTC	USD 58,107.30	+3.1% (YTD: +37.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.7% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.3 bn (24.7% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 13.9% YTD.

In the green: ADIB (+3.6%), Juhayna (+3.2%), and Eastern Company (+3.1%).

In the red: Elsewedy Electric (-3.3%), GB Corp (-2.8%), and Oriental Weavers (-1.8%).

CALENDAR

2024

JULY

9-18 July: Act Financial IPO subscription period for institutional investors.

9-23 July: Act Financial IPO subscription period for retail investors.

10 July (Wednesday): CBE and Capmas to publish inflation data for June.

10-11 July (Wednesday-Thursday): The Japan-Arab Economic Forum, Tokyo.

11 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year.

16-17 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Egypt Mining Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

AUGUST

4-5 August (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Expat Forum.

SEPTEMBER

3-5 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

13-17 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Water and Climate: Building Resilient Communities, Cairo, Egypt.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

30 September (Monday): Ban on sugar exports expiration.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

End of 2024: Shalateen Mining Company to launch a gold exploration tender in the Eastern Desert.

2025

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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