Is the carry trade approaching a tipping point? CBE data on the balance of payments in April indicated that the foreign holdings of Egyptian debt fell 1.25% m-o-m to EGP 375.5 bn — the first drop in foreign portfolio investments in 2018, according to the local press. As our friend EFG Hermes lead economist Mohamed Abu Basha suggested to Al Mal earlier this week, “hot money” investors have curbed somewhat their appetite for Egyptian treasuries as the central bank’s started guiding interest rates down 1H2018. Early signs among rate watchers are that we’re looking at a slower pace of easing in the back half of the year — good news for the carry trade, not necessarily for the rest of us who were hoping lower rates might spark corporate borrowing for replacement capex, at least.
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MPs set to give Madbouly’s policy platform a ringing endorsement; committee report due to House today ahead of Sunday vote. The ad hoc House of Representatives committee reviewing the Madbouly Cabinet’s policy program has given it a ringing endorsement, the committee’s deputy chair, Rep. Mahmoud El Sherif, said, according to Al Shorouk. The committee held a vote after its final hearing on the program, with 27 of 31 members in favour; it is due to present its report to the House general assembly today. The House Economic Committee, which is also looking into the program, is also finalizing its report. We’re tracking with interest the committee’s proposal to require that the private sector be involved in three-quarters of the national projects slated in the program.
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EXCLUSIVE- DBK Pharma resurrects IPO, mulls dual-listing on Egypt and Saudi stock exchanges in 1H2019: DBK Pharma’s long-awaited initial public offering appears to be back on, but this time the company is planning a dual-listing in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, sources close to the transaction told Enterprise yesterday. DBK is planning to offer as much as 25% of the company on the EGX and Tadawul during 1H2019 in secondary sales that will see some anchor shareholders trim their positions. Selling shareholders are then expected to use the lion’s share of their proceeds to subscribe to a capital increase to fund the remaining work on its new manufacturing facility in Obour. Saudi Arabia’s Marei bin Mahfouz Group had acquired a 25% stake in DBK Pharma back in February for EGP 38.5 mn, after the company’s initial bids for an IPO in 2016 and 2017 failed to garner enough shareholder support.
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REGULATION WATCH- Your next EGX trade could cost you an extra five piastres to fund a new NBFI federation. That’s the message from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), which is mulling an EGP 0.05 tithe on any capital market transaction executed by a brokerage firm, with the proceeds being channeled to the operating budget of a new federation for non-bank financial companies that will soon be established, sources with knowledge of the matter tell Al Mal. The newly-issued Capital Markets Act includes provisions for the establishment of a federation for non-banking financial companies similar to the Federation of Egyptian Banks. The FRA’s policy consultation committee expects to present the list of regs for the establishment of the federation to the FRA board in a few weeks’ time, they add.
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Siemens to sign management contracts for the three combined cycle plants next week: It appears that the Electricity Ministry had settled on having Siemens run the day-to-day operations and maintenance of the three combined-cycle power plants in the new capital, Burullus, and Beni Suef. The global giant built the plants with local partners including our friends Orascom Construction and Elsewedy Electric. Siemens and the state are expected to sign the EGP 6 bn, eight-year contracts next week, sources from the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company said. The EEHC had issued an open tender for the management and maintenance of the plants back in November.
You can get the latest information on the Siemens plants on the company’s landing page. It’s oddly good if you have a moment to check out their videos, and the geeks among you can follow our lead and download their white paper on the plants(pdf, registration required).
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EXCLUSIVE- Gov’t looking at how to fund higher spending on commodities for newborns; move is part of expansion of social safety net in El Sisi’s second term. The Madbouly government is debating on how to fund increased commodity subsidies for 6 mn newborns, which the state defines as kids under the age of two, sources tell Enterprise. Three solutions are under consideration to fund an additional EGP 3.6 bn in spending: 1) covering it with a budget overdraft in FY2018-19, 2) re-allocating funds from other ministries or 3) classify the newborns as beneficiaries of programs under the Takaful and Karama social welfare programs. A meeting was held yesterday between the ministers of supply and social solidarity with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to decide on the solution. Commodity subsidy spending in the FY2018-19 budget is up 36.6% y-o-y to EGP 86.18 bn.
Supply Ministry looking to add EGP 20 to subsidy beneficiaries’ monthly allowance? This comes as the Supply Ministry is reportedly planning to hike the monthly allowance for beneficiaries of various food subsidy programs to EGP 70, from a current EGP 50, unidentified government sources tell Al Mal. The supply and finance ministries are still discussing the feasibility of the increase, according to the sources.
Background: Overall spending on commodity subsidies is set to rise 36.6% this fiscal year to EGP 86.18 bn. With that in mind, the government is looking to cut off moochers and channel more funding to those who need it most. Reports earlier this week suggested the ministers of supply, finance and military production are also reconsidering eligibility conditions for the commodity subsidies system. The government had been expected to focus on reducing the number of beneficiaries that receive subsidized commodities and raising the number of those eligible for bread subsidies instead during FY2018-19. Almost two mn more citizens are expected to benefit from subsidized bread this year — 78.6 mn citizens, up from 76.8 mn last fiscal year. At the same time, only 69 mn people are likely to be made eligible for subsidized commodities, down from 71 mn last year.
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Oil Ministry inks three new agreements for oil and gas exploration in North Sinai and the Gulf of Suez. The first agreement, between GHP Exploration Corp. and the South Valley Petroleum Holding Company, will see the company drill four new wells at a cost of about USD 6 mn at the West Gabal El Zeit concession in the Gulf of Suez, according to a ministry statement. The second agreement was signed between the EGPC and UK’s Perenco for exploration in the North Sinai offshore concession, while the third was with the EGPC for exploration in the Gulf of Suez’ Ras Fanar concession. The Oil Ministry is currently finalizing procedures for 18 other agreements that will be announced soon, according to Minister Tarek El Molla. The government had announced plans to step up exploration activities in FY2018-19 as the country marches toward natural gas self-sufficiency and bids to become a regional energy export hub.
On a related note, the EGPC is reportedly considering renewing a crude oil import agreement with Iraq for a third year, government sources tell Al Mal. The authority is planning to re-negotiate payment terms and request to increase its grace period to six months from three months, if it decides to commit to the agreement for another year, they add. Egypt had renewed its agreement with Iraq, to import 12 mn bbl of crude oil, back in January.
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LEGISLATION WATCH- House committee approves amendments to Gov’t Accounting Act enshrining transition towards a cashless economy: The House of Representatives’ Planning and Budget Committee approved on Tuesday amendments to the Government Accounting Act that legally enshrine the transition towards a cashless economy, Al Mal reports. The amendments aim to bring the act up to speed with several ministry-level decisions adopted recently, such as the scrapping of paper cheques for transactions above a set threshold. The amendments make it mandatory for all government transactions — including collecting taxes and disbursing civil servants’ wages — to be electronic, according to Rep. Yasser Omar. Cabinet had signed off on the amendments last month. The proposed amendments still required asset from the House general assembly.
Background: Drafting a law on non-cash payments and transactions was one of several resolutions adopted during a National Payments Council meeting last year. The government has been taking steps to gradually decrease the rate of cash transactions as part of the state’s wider financial inclusion strategy. Planning Minister Hala El Said had said last week that her ministry has finished drafting legislation to encourage non-cash payments, but had not divulged the contents of the bill. The Finance Ministry and CBE had also been working on a law earlier this year to set limits on the amount of cash that government agencies can receive or pay in a single transaction. These laws and the Government Accounting Act appear to be separate, complementary initiatives.
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Global Innovation Index: Egypt stands out among lower-middle income countries and is most improved in MENA. Egypt climbed 10 spots to rank at 95 on the Global Innovation Index (GII) for 2018, up from of 110 last year. The country witnessed the biggest improvement in overall ranking for the MENA region and was one of the lower-middle income economies that appeared to “stand out as performing better than would be expected by their income level,” according to a GII report, which measures innovation by factoring in data on institutions, human capital and research, infrastructure, business and market sophistication, creative outputs, and knowledge and tech outputs. Energy innovation is the theme for this year’s report. You can tap or click here to download the full version.
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