The Central Bank of Egypt left key interest rates unchanged at its Thursday, 16 August meeting. The widely expected move saw the bank leave its overnight deposit and lending rates on hold at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, with the main operation and discount rates also stable at 17.25%, the CBE said in a statement. Global financial conditions — including rising international oil prices and increased pressure on emerging market economies — coupled with subsidy cuts pose a downside risk to inflation levels, the CBE notes.
MPC still sees inflation falling to single digits next year: The MPC maintained its outlook on headline inflation, which it expects to hit c.13% in 4Q2018 before dropping to the single digits “after the temporary effect of fiscal supply shock dissipates.” Keeping rates on hold “remains consistent with achieving this inflation outlook and target path,” according to the statement. Annual headline inflation in July cooled to 13.5%, while monthly headline inflation reached 2.5%.
The move “might shore up the attractiveness of local bonds amid a selloff in emerging-market assets,” but also suggests the easing cycle is unlikely to resume this year, Tarek El Tablawy and Ahmed Feteha write for Bloomberg. Asset managers have singled out Egypt as the best option for debt investors as emerging market equities enter bear territory thanks to stabilization measures that have maintained a “relatively high yield and relatively stable currency.”
Related
EXCLUSIVE- FinMin seeks access to corporate bank data under proposed amendments to the Income Tax Act: Forthcoming amendments to the Income Tax Act would allow the Finance Ministry to check up on company accounts to make sure they’re paying their income taxes, Tax Authority boss Emad Samy told Enterprise. The amendment will require discussion with the central bank to ensure the language conforms to the Central Bank Act, Samy noted, explaining that under the proposed measure — which is a part of the authority’s drive to clamp down on tax evasion — the ministry would have to make a formal request to the CBE to be allowed to view bank data or investigate suspicious activity.
Background: We had reported in July that the Finance Ministry was drafting a new Income Tax Act that’s more in-keeping with the times and that would cover everything from income tax rates to exemptions and tax breaks, in addition to factoring in e-commerce. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had previously told us that amendments coming to the act would streamline tax procedures and cut red tape.
The news comes as the Finance Ministry announced that it’s ready to begin receiving tax returns electronically, according to Al Masry Al Youm. The House of Representatives had signed off on amendments to the Accounting Act, which make it mandatory for all government transactions — including collecting taxes and disbursing civil servants’ wages — to be electronic, banning the use of paper cheques. Under the same cashless / paperless economy bid, the ministry launched a digital platform earlier this month that allows all state ministers and governors to keep track of their respective budgets and expenditures.
Related
INVESTMENT WATCH- Apache plans to boost its investment in Egypt to an annual USD 1 bn, CEO John Christmann is reported to have said last week at a meeting with Oil Minister Tarek El Molla, according to a ministry statement carried by Al Mal. Apache is already eyeing new opportunities in Egypt under its current five-year strategy, the paper quotes Christmann as saying. Apache and the EGPC had signed in July a USD 9 mn exploration agreement for blocks in the Western Desert and the company had said it plans to begin drilling this year.
Also last week, El Molla sat down with our friend Tom Maher, president and COO at Apex International Energy, and a delegation from partners Blue Water Energy to discuss their plans to begin drilling at Apex’s Western Desert concessions. Apex had previously said it was planning to begin exploration at the West Badr El Din and South East Meleiha concessions in in 4Q2018. The Oil Ministry is stepping up the pace at which it brings out tenders for new exploration blocks as part of its drive to position Egypt as the premier regional energy hub.
Related
Natural gas from Cyprus’ Aphrodite field could begin flowing into Egypt by 2022, according to comments attributed to Cypriot Energy Minister Giorgos Lakkotrypis last week by the Cyprus Mail. The plan, however, is contingent on talks between the Cypriot government and a consortium made up of Noble Energy, Israel’s Delek, and Royal Dutch Shell, who are looking to renegotiate the financial terms of their contract for the field, according to Lakkotrypis. “The consortium wants to renegotiate because current, lower global oil prices don't make viable a preliminary [agreement] to sell Aphrodite gas to a Shell-operated processing plant in Egypt,” the minister said, according to the Associated Press.
Background: Egypt and Cyprus had reached a preliminary agreement earlier this month to connect the Aphrodite field with liquefaction plants in Egypt via an underwater pipeline worth up to USD 1 bn. The move is part of Egypt’s strategy to become the natural gas export hub for the Eastern Mediterranean as it plans to re-export a portion of the LNG to Europe after satisfying local demand. Oil Minister Tarek El Molla had previously said that Egypt would reach natural gas self-sufficiency by January 2019 as it ramps up production from the Zohr gas field and other projects.
On a related note: Yale Global says that Egypt is “the most logical” gas export hub for the region despite some “pending issues.” Several factors play out in our favor, including existing refining and export infrastructure, location, and access to suppliers and buyers in the region. “Some of Egypt’s plans, however, may be too optimistic — from the quality of the gas in Zohr to the Mediterranean underground pipelines — and the nation is an immense market itself, compelling the government to fulfill local needs before considering exports.” The security situation in the Sinai Peninsula and Egypt’s local consumption needs also remain points of concern, and bringing our hub plans to fruition remains contingent on careful policy and more transparent local communication.
In other energy news: The Electricity Ministry plans to begin work on a power interconnection project with Nicosia in December, sources tell Al Mal. The project, which could see the two countries exchange up to 2 GW of power, is also expected to extend into Greece and will take about 36 months to complete, according to the sources. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi had met in June with executives from EuroAfrica Interconnector to discuss the USD 4 bn project after EuroAfrica finished feasibility studies. The interconnection project with Cyprus and Greece is part of a larger plan to link to power grids in Africa and Europe.
Related
Egypt is aims to attract as much as USD 11 bn in foreign direct investments in FY2018-19, up from USD 7.9 bn in the previous year, Planning Minister Hala El Saeed said last week, according to Reuters. FDI is expected to reach USD 20 bn by the end of the government’s development plan in 2022, driven by ongoing economic reforms, El Saeed said. The government is also hoping to create 750k jobs by the end of the fiscal year under its medium-term development plan for 2022, the minister said.
Putting this in context: Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly had unveiled a four-year strategy after he was sworn into office, which sees GDP growing and unemployment falling to 8% by 2022. The medium-term plan also sees a lower budget deficit of 6% of GDP and a primary surplus of 2%. The government is also hoping to boost non-oil exports by 13% to USD 35 bn by 2022 and increase average savings to 23%, from a current 11%, according to El Saeed. FDI had reached USD 6.0 bn in 9M2017-18, driven by some USD 3.4 bn in new oil sector investments. Carnegie Endowment had noted in a June report that FDI fell short of its USD 10 bn target last year, suggesting the government wasn’t doing enough to attract foreign investors.
Related
Our friends at Sarwa Capital announced yesterday they had completed a EGP 1.75 bn securitized bond issuance “backed by the portfolios of Contact Auto Credit and its affiliate companies,” according to a company press release (pdf). Sarwa Promoting & Underwriting was the transaction’s lead manager and financial advisor, while Arab African International Bank acted as underwriter, with Attijariwafa and Ahly United Bank as co-underwriters. Arab Legal Consultants were legal counsel. “We are excited to announce the closure of another milestone transaction immediately following the recent EGP 2 bn issue during the second quarter,” said Sarwa Promoting & Underwriting CEO Ayman El Sawy. “As before the bonds have attracted the highest ratings on the back of our unique structuring know-how and the sustained credit quality of Contact’s portfolios.” We had reported last month Sarwa plans to offer for sale up to 40% of the company’s shares on the EGX in September.
Related
El Sisi ratifies cyber crimes, leasing and factoring acts: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi ratified last week the controversial Cyber Crimes Act, Ahram Online reported. The law stipulates that internet service providers hold user data and records of web activity — including voice calls and browsing history — for a period of 180 days, among other stipulations.
The law’s ratification opened up the floodgates of criticism in the foreign press. Rights groups view the law as part of a “series of measures … aimed at curbing freedom of expression online, with the internet one of the last forums for public debate over Sisi’s rule,” AFP said. Authorities maintain that the law is necessary for counterterrorism operations, the Times of Israel noted. Islamist mouthpiece Middle East Eye also took note.
Also over the Eid break, El Sisi ratified the Leasing and Factoring Act (which regulates leasing and factoring as non-banking financial tools that are subject to oversight by the Financial Regulatory Authority), the Sovereign Wealth Fund Act, and the renewal of the Tax Dispute Resolution Act.
Speaking of the sovereign wealth fund, the government has tasked a committee of legal and economic experts to advise on the act’s executive regulations. The committee, which will set the framework for the EGP 200 bn fund, will lay the ground rules and set the criteria that will determine how staff will be hired, Planning Minister Hala El Saeed said on Thursday, Al Mal reports. The government intends to put out a job posting for an executive director soon, before the final formation of the board is announced, she said. We had been expecting Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly to announce the details of the board before the holiday, as the fund is set to launch before year’s end.
Who’s got oversight of the EGP 200 bn SWF? The board will be headed by the Planning Minister and include representatives from the ministries of finance and investment, alongside five other members who are yet to be selected. The regulations should be issued within 60 days and studies are ongoing to decide on a location to set up the fund’s main headquarters.
Background: The House of Representatives had signed off on the law establishing the sovereign wealth fund last month.We had also reported in July that a consortium of law firms — including Sarie-Eldin, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Baker Mckenzie — had entered into an agreement with the government to advise on the establishment of the fund’s framework and governing structure.
Related
LEGISLATION WATCH- Parliament’s Housing Committee drafts a new real estate tax law: The House of Representatives’ Housing Committee has drafted new legislation on taxing real estate to replace the existing law under an alias: The Returns Act. The legislation would impose taxes on real estate based on size and location and would be applicable to commercial and residential properties alike, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The annual tax would be added to electricity bills once a year, and is expected to reel in around EGP 17 bn per annum, committee head Moataz Mohamed tells the newspaper. The committee has submitted the draft law to Finance Minister Mohamed Maait for review ahead of discussion at the House of Representatives when MPs return in October for the new legislative season.
Background: The Finance Ministry’s intention to reform the real estate tax has drawn the ire of the business community and private citizens alike, in no small part due to the lack of clarity on the specifics of these amendments. Sources had also told us that the Madbouly Cabinet is devising a new real estate tax formula as part of a major real estate tax overhaul that would impact both business and private landholdings, while the Finance Ministry is reportedly looking to impose real estate taxes on the oil and gas industry.
Related
MOVES- High-profile UK Ambassador to Cairo John Casson is saying goodbye to Egypt after completing his term, according to Al Shorouk. No successor has yet been named, so far as we can tell.
Related