Enjoy your mid-week break. Tomorrow is officially off: The stock exchange and the central bank have announced they will close tomorrow in observance of Islamic new year after a Labor Ministry statement noting it would be a national holiday. Happy first day of 1440, y’all, and see you back here in your inboxes on Wednesday.
Oh, and it’s your last holiday until 20 November (the Prophet’s Birthday) so make the most out of it. Armed Forces Day, the traditional October holiday, falls on a Saturday this year and our wager is that we’re all heading to work on the Sunday instead of taking it as a replacement.
The EFG Hermes London conference, the fall’s top gathering of frontier and emerging markets fund managers, kicks off today at Emirates Arsenal Stadium. The conference website is here.
Egypt to sign agreement with USAID today: Investment Minister Sahar Nasr is expected to sign an unspecified agreement today with USAID Egypt Mission Director Sherry Carlin, according to a ministry statement (pdf).

**#3 High interest rates are the price we will have to pay to stay competitive to the carry trade. Emerging markets are in their first “sustained” rate-hike cycle since 2011. Rates are rising in EM from Turkey and Argentina to India, Indonesia, the Philippines and the Czech Republic, and the upshot is that we’re going to face competition for allocations from the carry trade. Think of it as the global arms race of EM monetary policy.
The others are catching up to us: An index maintained by Capital Economics and picked up by the Financial Times notes that an index of “the number of emerging market central banks raising rates minus the number cutting them has risen to is highest level since 2011, when the world was still recovering from the most acute phase of the global financial crisis.” MENA has had the highest policy rates globally for the past couple of years, but as a Capital Economics chart shows (above), the gap between us, Latin America and emerging Europe has narrowed.
Egypt’s new Catch 22: Paying more to keep capital here strangles private-sector borrowing and raises costs to the state treasury. Egypt led EM with a substantial rate hike after the float of the EGP — arguing the IMF orthodoxy that raising rates was necessary to help curb inflation. It also ensured we were attractive to hot money, which came pouring in to help rebuild reserves and ease pressure on the EGP. We’ve been saying for the past month that with the EM sell-off continuing, policymakers now have a new Catch 22: Fund managers are pulling out of emerging markets, spooked (a) by the risks about which we drone on every morning in this space and (b) motivated by a strengthening USD and the prospect of rate hikes in the United States. As other countries raise rates, Egypt’s central bank will have to (at a minimum) leave interest rates on hold to keep the carry trade from fleeing Egypt. Toss in the risk of depreciation of the EGP (as Turkey, South Africa and other major EM are seeing) and we see the central bank leaving rates unchanged when it next meets at the end of the month.
This is (at best) mediocre news for the private sector and possibly for FDI, where we have long argued that high interest rates discourage investment by domestic businesses — a key catalyst to help unlock foreign direct investment. And high policy rates will also continue to keep borrowing costs high for the good folks at the Finance Ministry, with all that that entails (in the near-to-medium term) for government finances.
Another day, another Abraaj takedown: Yesterday, it was the FT’s turn to publish a long take on the rise and fall of Abraaj and its founder Arif Naqvi. What we found interesting in this one is just how much of the firm’s recent misfortune hinged on the USD 1.8 bn sale of a majority stake in Pakistan’s K-Electric to a Chinese group in 2017.
Speaking of Actis and Abraaj, we have a tiny correction to make: Actis’ offer to acquire some of Abraaj’s assets was actually for USD 1, and not USD 1 bn as we wrote yesterday. The story has since been corrected on our website. Thanks to the many readers who wrote in to point us toward the correction.
Kuwait is new “darling” of investors in regional equities, outshining neighbors Saudi Arabia and the UAE as it slowly but surely delivers a story rooted in policy liberalization, Bloomberg says. The oil-rich country’s expected entry to the MSCI Emerging Markets equity index has also propelled a rally in its stocks while other EM equities have been heading in the opposite direction. “Kuwait’s market offers a refuge for investors spooked by the roll-back of crisis-era stimulus policies and new global trade skirmishes. It has the ‘best financial position of any Middle East oil exporter,’ with the lowest crude-price break-even point for the state budget,” one portfolio manager tells the news information service.
But it’s could be a volatile fall for oil, the Wall Street Journal argues in a solid analysis piece, noting that the “rapid rise and fall in oil prices [in the past month or so] is a sign that investors are weighing conflicting signals,” leaving the market “at a crossroads … as many investors reassess whether global growth will continue stoking demand for fuel.”
Strangest EM-related story we heard these past few days? A failed assassination attempt against Brazil’s far right and poll-leading presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro appears to be recovering from the attack, Reuters reports.
A little closer to home, Sudan’s President Omar Al Bashir is hoping the old tactic of dissolving the government will somehow fix the country’s battered economy (or at least demonstrate some action), according to Reuters.
Europe looks set to tighten AML procedures. The European Union’s banking regulator could get “greater enforcement powers and more resources to investigate the activities of banks involved in illicit financing” as part of a crackdown on money laundering and funding for terrorists, the Financial Times reports. Look for this, alongside new powers for the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, to feature today in European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker’s annual “State of the Union” speech. The salmon-color paper expects the twin initiatives to be formally unveiled next week.
Jack Ma is retiring: Jack Ma, co-founder of (arguably) the second largest ecommerce site in the world will announce a succession plan next as he prepares to hand over the title of executive chairman next year to CEO Daniel Zhang, CNBC reports. Ma will stay on as executive chair for 12 months to ease the transition, the broadcaster says.



