** #1 IPO WATCH- State privatization program postponed to next year, lineup of companies on offer could change: The Madbouly government has pushed the start of the state privatization program to 2019 as Egypt’s capital market is roiled by the turbulence that has swept global emerging markets in recent months. A senior government official emphasized that cabinet is “completely committed to the program,” but cannot go to market with conditions as they stand.
The program could resume as early as 1Q2019 or as late as the start of the new state fiscal year in July. It all comes down to market conditions, our source said, saying cabinet made the decision to postpone the program after consulting with investment bankers.
A new lineup could be in the offing: The state could use the delay to tweak the list of (a) already-traded companies set to sell additional shares and (b) companies set to make an initial public offering under the program.
The state had hoped to raise as much as EGP 10 bn for the treasury from the program this fiscal year and is now reviewing was to find “alternative sources” for the funds, our source says.
** #2 Eastern Tobacco IPO postponed “indefinitely,” gov’t points to messy macro backdrop: Our source spoke just one day after the government announced that its sale of a 4.5% stake in cigarette maker Eastern Company has been postponed “indefinitely” after the company’s share price plunged 11.5%, The committee overseeing the state privatization program said in a statement (pdf) that Eastern’s share performance was set against a background that includes the emerging markets sell-off, high interest rates, the introduction of protectionist measures in various economies, and the looming trade war between the US and China. Regulations for the state privatization program bar any company from proceeding with a stake sale if its shares rise or fall beyond a threshold of 10% of its average value.
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** #3 EXCLUSIVE- The government will be issuing eurobonds in USD, RMB, and JPY in 1Q2019 in a bid to diversify its sources of funding and attract new investors to Egypt’s debt market, a senior government official told us yesterday. The RMB and JPY issuances won’t take the form of ‘panda’ or ‘samurai’ bonds — which require regulatory approval from their respective countries — and will instead by RMB- and JPY-denominated eurobonds, the source said. Talks are currently ongoing with investment banks to determine the value of each issuance, but the government may be looking to raise as much as USD 4-7 bn, our source told us. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had previously said that the government was hoping to issue USD 5 bn worth of eurobonds next year, which we were told is part of a plan to sell as much as USD 20 bn in FX- denominated debt between now and 2022. The news comes after Maait reported “very positive” sentiment on Egypt after meeting with investors in Seoul earlier this month.
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** #4 M&A WATCH- BP talks to sell Egypt assets to SDX fail. SDX Energy has “terminated” talks to acquire BP’s Egypt assets after failing to reach an agreement, the company said in a statement on Thursday (pdf). SDX gave no color on why the talks broke down. SDX Energy announced last month that it was in open talks with BP to acquire “a significant package of [its] assets in Egypt.” It was not not immediately clear which assets SDX hoped to acquire, but the company said the transaction would take the form of a reverse takeover, allowing SDX entry to the London Stock Exchange’s main market. BP had been said to be shopping for buyers since at least March as part of a plan to sell USD 2-3 bn’s worth of maturing assets this year.
BP isn’t exiting Egypt: The global oil major plans to invest USD 2 bn in Egypt next year, BP North Africa Regional President Hesham Mekawi told Al Shorouk in an interview last month. Among the assets in which it is investing is its Raven field, which is part of its West Nile concessions in Fayoum and Giza. The Raven gas field is expected to come online in 2H2019, a source from the Oil Ministry officialtold Youm7 on Thursday. Production is expected to reach 350 mcf/d of gas.
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** #5 INVESTMENT WATCH- CIRA to invest EGP 1 bn in expanding Badr University: Private-sector education provider Cairo Investment and Real Estate Development (CIRA) is planning to invest EGP 1 bn on developing a new campus for Badr University, CEO Mohamed El Kalla said, according to Al Mal. The first phase of the project is expected to cost EGP 450 bn and will see the build-out of four faculties, he said. El Kalla added that the company is weighing whether to build the campus in Upper Egypt or the Delta.
IPO proceeds, bank finance will back the expansion: CIRA plans to deploy part of the proceeds of its successful IPO earlier this month, which saw the company raise EGP 1.244 bn, said El Kalla. The firm also plans to call on earnings from real estate sales and other activities and could seek bank financing. El Kalla suggested that EFG Hermes, which took CIRA public, would be tapped to help put together the financing package.
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** #6 INVESTMENT WATCH- Nestlé Egypt will inaugurate a new instant coffee factory in January, Trade and Industry Minister Amr Nassar announced on Thursday, according to a ministry statement. The statement does not provide details on the cost or location of the new facility, which will house eight production lines. Nestlé will direct the factory’s output both to the local and export markets. CEO Moataz El Hout had previously said the company is looking to increase its exports 20% y-o-y in 2018 through further expansion into North African markets.
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Egypt to take on USD 45 bn in financing from Russia for Dabaa? Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to lend Egypt USD 45 bn to finance the construction of the Dabaa nuclear power plant, which will be built by Russia’s Rosatom, the Financial Times reports. Putin made public the offer during his annual foreign policy speech on Thursday, but offered no further detail. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters on Thursday that Moscow may lend Egypt the money through Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, according to Reuters Arabic. Egypt would apparently draw down the funds at the rate of USD 3-4 bn each year to support construction. News of the loan comes after the two countries signed a strategic cooperation agreement during President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit last week to Moscow.
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** #7 The central bank wants to take mobile phone records into account when credit scores are calculated: Mobile network operators could be forced to make records of bill payments on customer accounts available to state-backed credit rating agency iScore under an initiative that has the backing of the Central Bank of Egypt and Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, sources told Al Mal. The two institutions are looking into the regulatory and legislative changes necessary to make that possible.
Part of financial inclusion drive? Reading between the lines, the changes would, if enacted, be a prelude to the CBE’s drive to expand the availability of microcredit. With as few as one in every three Egyptians being ‘banked’ (the exact definition varies), the initiative looks set to have iScore assign credit ratings based on mobile phone and electricity bills and other indicators of creditworthiness even if the individual isn’t formally part of the banking system.
Background: CBE Sub-Governor for Payment Systems and Business Technology Ayman Hussein said last month that the CBE is looking at introducing nano lending — providing mobile-based cash loans — as part of the third phase of its mobile banking strategy. He had said that iScore would be required to provide credit ratings for users for the system to work.
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** #8 Prosecutor General charges three former execs of the company once known as Tri-Ocean Energy with embezzling “USD 1 bn”: Prosecutor General Nabil Sadek referred three former executives from Tri-Ocean Energy (now known as Mog Energy) to a criminal court for prosecution on charges they embezzled as much as USD 1 bn. The case first made headlines last October, when it broke in Youm7. The firm’s former deputy chairman, Mohamed Al Ansari, was among the three arrested, according to Reuters, which cites state news agency MENA. The former execs are charged with allegedly funneling around USD 950 mn from the company’s accounts to their personal accounts through shell corporations, according to details of the allegations published in Al Mal. The three are reportedly being charged with a second count of embezzlement related to a USD 18.5 mn sum.
The USD 1 bn figure seems far fetched, even for an oil-trading business, which was Tri-Ocean’s primary focus at the time of the alleged crimes. There’s likely a message to the business community in prosecutors zeroing in on the USD 1 bn figure while moving ahead with a separate charge on a substantially more realistic USD 18.5 bn figure.
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LEGISLATION WATCH- The Social Solidarity Ministry is expecting to present a draft of the new Social Security and Pensions Act to the Madbouly Cabinet as soon as ministry officials complete their final review of the bill, Deputy Minister Nevine El Qabbag told Al Shorouk. Under the new law, pensions (which are governed by their own law) would fall under the larger umbrella of cash subsidy programs, according to El Qabbag.
The law would also introduce two new cash subsidy programs, Igatha and Forsa (alongside the existing Takaful and Karama programs) in addition to amending the overall framework governing social welfare and pensions programs, according to El Qabbag. We had heard that the law would also guarantee the right to unemployment benefits and establish a new pension fund and is set to be presented to the House of Representatives during the current legislative term. Social Solidarity Minister Ghada Wali had said in June that the new law was with the Finance Ministry for review.
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MOVES- Samsung Egypt Vice President Sherif Barakat (LinkedIn) will reportedly be leaving his post by early November, according to an unconfirmed story in Al Mal, citing sources close to the company, which is said to be looking to bring in a Korean executive to succeed Barakat.
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