IMF says loan program success dependent on additional funding

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What We're Tracking Today

A larger IMF package looks like a question of if and not when

Good morning, friends. The week is already shaping up to be a busy one with lots of economy and business news and the US and UK airstrikes in Yemen setting the agenda before the week has even started.

Particularly worthy of attention: There are signs we could make progress before the end of the month on both a larger IMF facility and a package of investment and aid from the European Union.

Egyptian and European officials are set to meet a week from Tuesday, and our top diplomat in Europe is making it clear that we’re looking for an “upgrade of relations” that would include everything from more economic support to investment guarantees. Meanwhile, an IMF spokesperson has said that talks for a larger facility will continue in the coming weeks to “operationalize the key policy priorities,” including fiscal reforms and a flexible exchange-rate policy.

^^ We have more on both stories below.

PSA- Hold onto your hats and keep your umbrellas close: We’re in for a cold andwindy week paired with rain and foggy mornings today and tomorrow, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority. Look for daytime highs of 23°C and lows of 7°C in the evening through Friday, according to our favorite weather app.

But first:

If you haven’t already: Sign up for the UAE edition here — it’s launching this week.Our report, produced in the UAE and in Cairo, is written for decision makers in the UAE as well as executives, investors, and others doing business or deploying capital there. It will be published 7am UAE time, Monday through Friday.

** THAT’S NOT ALL: EnterpriseAM Saudi Arabia is launching later this month. You can sign up here to let us know you’d like to be on the list on launch day. More details soon.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

We’ve set terms for helping the EU control migration: “Economic support, investment guarantees, technology transfer, jobs, and food security” is what we want from the European Union in exchange helping it curb migration across the Mediterranean, ambassador to the EU Badr Abdelatty told the Financial Times ahead of a meeting between Egypt and European officials on 23 January. The EU has already committed to paying EUR 160 mn to support refugees and border management until 2027, but we are looking for more as the nation copes with fallout from the “Ukraine crisis, from Covid, and the situation in Gaza,” Abdelatty told the salmon-colored paper, saying what we’re looking for is “an overall upgrade of relations.”

Remember: The EU has been rumored to be putting together a plan to mobilize as much asEUR 10 bn of investment alongside debt relief measures to help stabilize Egypt’s economy and curb migration across the Mediterranean.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Pharaohs take to the pitch for Afcon 2024: Egypt kicks off its Afcon campaign tonight when they meet Mozambique at La Felicia Stadium in Abidjan at 7pm CLT. We are favored to lead Group B ahead of Ghana, which we will clash with on Thursday before playing against Cape Verde in the final group stage match on Monday, 22 January.

Where to watch it:beIN SPORTS 1

#2- The House is in session: The House will discuss and vote on a draft bill to set up a new authority tasked with investing and / or disposing of confiscated funds and assets. The House will also vote on an amendment to the law regulating the Police Authority. The MPs are also set to discuss an agreement to end double taxation between Egypt and Croatia.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- Davos 2024 is nearly upon us: The skies will soon be filled with private jets heading to Switzerland for the World Economic Forum in Davos set to kick off tomorrow and run until Friday. This year’s theme is an optimistic “rebuilding trust”, but “climate, chaos and war” are already filling a doomy agenda, writes the Guardian’s Larry Elliot. You can check out the forum’s official teaser agenda here.

#2- China’s foreign minister is due in town: China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is setto touch down in Egypt sometime this week during a six-day tour of Africa that started yesterday, which will also see him visit Tunisia, Togo, and Cote d'Ivoire, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Thursday.

PROJECT UPDATE-

The region’s largest wind farm gets a land use agreement: A consortium led bySaudi’s ACWA Power and our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities signed a 25-year long-term land use agreement with the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) on Wednesday for its 1.1 GW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez — set to be the largest in the Middle East and cost up to USD 1.5 bn — a joint statement (pdf) read.

What’s next: Wrapping up site studies and lining up finance for the project, which when operational will offset 2.4 mn tons of carbon dioxide annually and produce enough power for nearly 1.1 mn households.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te has been elected president of Taiwan. Beijing had warned the Taiwanese people to make the “right choice” before the presidential race and avoid voting for the DPP.

MEANWHILE- The Iowa caucuses will kick off the 2024 US presidential race on Monday. Bone-chilling cold and a blizzard could affect turnout. CNBC has a primer, and Politico notes that polling shows former President Donald Trump “cruising.”

IN BUSINESS HEADLINES you’ll want to know about this morning:

The US aviation regulator has grounded Boeing’s 737 Max 9 pending receipt of further data from Boeing;
Canada could cap the number of international students it accepts each year as the Trudeau government faces a crisis over the affordability of housing;
John Kerry is retiring as the top US climate negotiator.

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Success of Egypt’s IMF loan program is contingent on additional financing, says IMF

Unlocking a larger IMF package is “critical” for the success of Egypt’s loan program, the international lender’s director of communications, Julie Kozack, said during a press briefing (watch, runtime: 49:05). She did not provide any details on the size of the larger package needed or a timeline on when we can expect it to be announced.

We knew a larger IMF program was in the cards after IMF Managing Director KristalinaGeorgieva said in November that the Fund was “seriously considering” increasing Egypt’s USD 3 bn loan program, as pressures from the conflict in Gaza pose further pressures on the country.

It’s all still being negotiated: The Fund is currently in discussions with Egyptian authoritiesregarding the policy requirements necessary for the Fund to sign off on the first two reviews of the loan program, namely tightening fiscal and monetary policy and moving towards a flexible exchange rate, Kozack said. “We expect those discussions to continue in the coming weeks to operationalize the key policy priorities … which would support the authorities’ commitment to reduce inflation and to gradually move to an inflation-targeting regime,” she added.

The IMF acknowledges we’re in a tight spot: “Egypt already faces a complicated and challenging macroeconomic situation. And that situation has been made more complicated by the conflicts between Israel and Gaza,” Kozack said. She pointed to the impact of the war on “areas that support the current account” like tourism and Red Sea disruptions.

ICYMI: Georgieva met last week with CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, Kozack said, without giving away the details of the meetings, but signaled that there was “important progress in the discussions.”

How much are we talking? The government is reportedly looking for another USD 2 bn from the IMF, which would increase the loan program to USD 5 bn, unconfirmed media reports said in October. The usually well-sourced nighttime talkshow host Lamees El Hadidi says we could even get up to 4x what the fund had originally pledged, after her sources told her that authorities are in talks with the Fund over potentially raising the value of the loan to USD 10-12 bn (watch, runtime: 5:13).

MEANWHILE- JP Morgan Chase is taking Egypt out of its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets — indices that track local currency bonds issued by EM governments — at the end of this month, the bank said in a report seen by Bloomberg. It will also remove the country from the Emerging Local Markets Index Plus (ELMI+) — a group of indices that tracks total returns for local currency denominated money market instruments in EMs — on 29 March due to the persistent FX shortage in the country.

ADQ acquires stake in 7 Egyptian historic hotels through 40.5% share in TMG subsidiary

ADQ invests big in historic hotels: Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ and its subsidiary Adnec Group will take part-ownership of several luxury Egyptian hotelsafter it signed an agreement to acquire 40.5% of Icon, the hospitality arm of Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG), through a capital increase, ADQ said in a statement on Friday without disclosing the value of the transaction. ADQ will own a stake in Icon’s existing portfolio including the recently-acquired seven historic hotels.

Remember: Icon acquired a 39% stake in seven historic hotels under the state privatization program in December, with plans to eventually hold a 51% stake in the hotels, bringing the transaction’s value to USD 800 mn. The seven hotels include the Cairo Marriott Hotel inZamalek, Marriott Mena House, Steigenberger Hotel El Tahrir Cairo, Steigenberger Cecil Alexandria, Sofitel Legend Old Cataract Aswan, Mövenpick Aswan, and Sofitel Winter Palace Luxor.

Added to Icon’s existing portfolio, Icon will have 5k rooms and 15 luxury assets nationwide.

Icon already owns some of Egypt’s most well-known properties and has four more in the pipeline. Its existing portfolio includes two Four Seasons properties in Cairo and one each in Alexandria and Sharm El Sheikh as well as the Kempinski Nile Hotel. It has additional properties in development or design in Cairo, Luxor, and Marsa Alam.

We might have an idea about the value of the new transaction: TMG last month said that an “international strategic investor” would acquire a minority stake worth USD 882.5 mn in Icon via capital increase, giving it an indirect stake in the hotels. This will result in “one of the largest foreign direct inflows into Egypt in the last several years,” TMG said at the time.

What’s the money for? The proceeds from the transaction will go towards deleveraging Icon’s existing debt and to pay for the acquisition of the historic hotels from the government, according to ADQ.

Advisors: EFG Hermes sole financial advisor to TMG Holding on both ADQ and Adnec’s acquisition of a stake in Icon and was sole financial advisor to TMG on its acquisition of the heritage hotels from the Government of Egypt. White & Case UAE and Egypt were legal counsel to ADQ and Adnec, while Gibson Dunn, Sarie El-Din & Partners, and Shahid Law were counsel to TMG.

US, UK launch strikes in Yemen + Suez Canal revenues down 40%

Tensions in the Red Sea spill over into conflict: The US and the UK with support from Australia, Canada, the Netherland, and Bahrain carried out air strikes on Houthi facilities across Yemen on Thursday after repeated attacks by Houthi fighters on commercial vessels crossing the Red Sea in recent weeks, US Centcom said in a statement. Air strikes continued over the weekend as the UN’s special envoy for Yemen called for the “maximum restraint” from all parties while warning of the risks of a regional conflict.

The Houthis have vowed retaliation: Retaliation will be “imminent,” senior Houthi leader Mohammed Ali Al Houthi told tens of thousands of people in the Yemeni capital Sanaa who had gathered to protest the bombing campaign, Bloomberg reported. Western forces can expect a “firm, strong and effective response,” another Houthi spokesperson told Al Jazeera.

Egypt warns of regional escalation: The latest developments are a “clear indication” ofEgypt’s earlier warnings of a spiraling conflict stemming from continued Israeli aggression in Gaza, a Foreign Ministry statement said. The ministry called for regional and international coordination to reduce tension in the Red Sea and instability in the region before fighting escalated even further.

SUEZ CANAL REVENUES PLUMMET-

Suez Canal revenues since the beginning of the year are down 40% y-o-y, Suez CanalAuthority head Osama Rabie told Kol Youm on Thursday (watch, runtime: 24:33). Shipping volumes fell 30% y-o-y during the first 11 days of the year with 544 vessels passing the canal during the period compared to 777 in 2023.

It looks like things are going to get worse before they get better: Efforts to alleviate thesecurity concerns of international shipping companies — like fee reductions and other incentives — have failed, Rabie added. Traffic through the Suez Canal is expected to become even more scarce still after the US and UK militaries advised against all transit through the Red Sea, Reuters reported. If the situation continues to escalate, the Suez Canal could “effectively close for all ships,” Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at trade group Bimco, told Bloomberg.

Container shipping rates for many key global trade routes have at least doubled from a month ago amid fears of further disruptions in the Red Sea, industry officials told Reuters over the weekend. Moving ships away from the Red Sea and around the Cape of Good Hope adds around 10 days and USD 1 mn in fuel costs to trips between Asia and Europe.

THE OIL MARKET REACTS-

Houthis ‘mistakenly’ target oil tanker: A missile strike launched on Friday narrowly missed aPanama-flagged tanker carrying Russian oil, marking the second time the Houthis mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil, maritime security firm Ambrey said. Oil tankers have begun rerouting away from the Red Sea, in the clearest example of disruption to the oil market. At least three firms — Torm, Hafnia, and Stena Bulk, who direct around 350 tankers between them — paused transit through the area, Bloomberg reported.

Remember: Oil tankers have been relatively untouched by Houthis until now, as theHouthis had only attacked non-petroleum vessels. Oil and fuel traffic through the Red Sea managed to hold steady in December.

Market reax: Oil prices climbed 1% on Friday with Brent futures rising as much as 4.3%rightafter the attack, before shedding most of the gains and ending the day up 1.1%.

New wages, pension hikes + tax cuts for individuals and industries in the 2024 pipeline

A new social security package in the works? Finance Minister Mohamed Maait announced yesterday that we could be in line for a new package of social security measures, following instructions from President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, aimed at easing the financial pressures on the people, according to a Finance Ministry statement. The new package, which will include wage and pension hikes and an increased tax threshold, will be put for discussion in public consultations next month, along with the proposed five-year tax policy framework, the amendments to the Income Tax Act, and the state budget for FY 2024/2025.

Using AI to collect dues? Maait said that the ministry intends to utilize AI to collect state treasury's dues. He added the move would help the government estimate the actual size of the Egyptian economy by accounting for informal businesses. He did not specify how the system would work.

Extended property tax exemptions for key sectors: The Finance Ministry also submitted a proposal to the cabinet to extend the property tax exemptions for industrial, poultry, and other key sectors until the end of 2026 to support these industries.

More tax incentives for investment: Maait said the Finance Ministry is also proceeding with the legal procedures to exempt strategic industrial projects from certain types of taxes for five years, under the proposed five-year tax policy framework. The framework promises lower fixed wage and commercial profit taxes, tax cuts for new projects, and an up-to-date tax system.

DATA POINT-The e-invoicing system has ramped up tax revenues during the past FY by 26.9%, said Maait, noting that the increase was driven by efficiency rather than collecting more taxes from investors.

Egypt’s annual headline inflation eased for a third consecutive month to seven-month low

Inflation cooled for the third consecutive month in December, reaching its lowestlevel in seven months as increases in food prices continued to decelerate. Figures published last week by state statistics agency Capmas showed that annual inflation in urban areas slowed 0.9 percentage points to 33.7% in December from 34.6% in November.

Monthly inflation, on the other hand, inched up to 1.4% in December from 1.3% a month earlier.

Core inflation dips: Annual core inflation — which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel — fell to 34.2% in December from 35.9% the month prior, according to central bank figures. Meanwhile, monthly core inflation rose to 1.3% from 1% in November.

A decline in food price growth drove the trend once again: Food and beverage price growth — the largest component of the basket of goods and services — slowed to 60.5% y-o-y in December from 64.5% in November.

SOUND SMART:A favorable base effect is also at work because the rapid rise in inflation at the end of 2022 and first half of 2023 will help temper annual figures over the coming months (all else being equal). The key question: Whether this outweighs the inflationary impact if the EGP loses further ground against the greenback should we move to a floating FX regime now that President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has secured a third term in office.

Just shy of analyst predictions: The numbers were slightly higher than the median 33.4%prediction put forward by analysts polled by Reuters. Inflation has been cooling from a historic high of 38% in September, although analysts have cautioned that inflation may pick up again in the wake of recent government price hikes and a widely anticipated currency devaluation.

We’ve got ambitious inflation targets lined up for FY 2024-2025: The government is hoping to see annual headline inflation fall to an average of 15% in the upcoming fiscal year, a significant drop from the 38% estimated for the current year. The central bank’s average inflation target is 7% (±2%) by 4Q 2024.

The international press had the story:Bloomberg | Reuters | The National.

Tabreed terminates CapitalMed contract over FX concerns

Tabdreed’s CapitalMed plans go kaput on FX crisis: UAE-based district cooling firm Tabreed has terminated its contract with Egyptians for Healthcare Services (EHCS) for the latter’s CapitalMed medical complex in Badr City as the FX crisis rendered the project “financially unsustainable,” CEO Khalid Al Marzooqi told Asharq Business. While the investment costs were in USD, its return was pegged in EGP, he explained.

Background: Tabreed landed an EGP 1.6 bn contract to design, build, and operate a heatingand cooling plant for CapitalMed back in September 2022 — a few months after it entered the local market with a contract to provide cooling services for Marakez’s D5M shopping center in East Cairo.

How did EGP volatility impact the contract? Tabreed had asked EHCS to modify the watertariff rate set in the contract in response to the steeper-than-expected currency devaluation, but the latter declined the request, prompting the Emirati firm to withdraw from the project, Asharq reported, citing a source it says is in the know.

Remember: The EGP has shed almost half of its value against the greenback after a series ofdevaluations since March 2022. The central bank has kept the EGP exchange rate fixed at 30.96 to the USD since March 2023, but it currently trades on the parallel market at over 56 to the USD.

Moving forward:While Tabreed’s Chief Financial Officer Adel Al Wahedi said in July that thecompany was “slowing down” plans for additional investment in the country as it waits for a stable outlook on the EGP, Al Marzouqi told Asharq that Tabreed is “still committed to investing in the Egyptian market.”

FX restrictions on credit cards are getting tighter still: Commercial InternationalBank (CIB) and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) have lowered credit card limits on foreign exchange transactions executed locally and abroad last week, according to announcements on their websites (here and here). No other local banks have imposed further restrictions on credit card FX limits so far, an industry source tells us.

The limits at home: CIB trimmed the monthly limit on local FX transactions to the equivalent ofEGP 2k to EGP 7.75k, depending on the type of account, while ADIB cut its limit to USD 50 or equivalent across the board. Prior to the trim, most banks had a standard FX limit at home of the equivalent of EGP 7.7k.

The limits for purchases abroad: CIB reduced the monthly limits for purchases made while cardholders are abroad to theequivalent of EGP 15k-75k, while ADIB put them to the equivalent of USD 500-2k.

The limits for withdrawals abroad: CIB lowered its ceiling for monthly cash withdrawalsabroad to the equivalent of EGP 2k to 6.5k, while ADIB slashed its limit to the equivalent of USD 50-100.

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has given banks the verbalgo-ahead to reduce credit card FX limits as they see fit in order to protect their FX liquidity, a banking source told Enterprise.

ICYMI: The central bank has been tightening its grip on FX transactions in recent months. A six-month bar on FX transactions for newly issued credit cards was issued last month in addition to credit card and debit card restrictions for foreign-currency transactions that began in October of last year.

HIGH-YIELD CDs-

New high-yield CDs reel in EGP 205 bn: The high-yield certificates of deposit (CDs) recently iss ued by the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr have attracted a combined EGP 205 bn since their launch eight days ago, Youm 7 reported, citing NBE Chairman Hisham Okasha and Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby. That’s more than fourfold what the certificates had racked up four days into their release last week.

NBE and Banque Misr scale up rates on secured loans: The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr have reportedly increased the interest rate on loans secured by the three-year 19% CDs to 25.5%, up from 21%, following the central banks signal to all banks to increase rates on secured loans, Al Shorouk reports, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter.

Egypt’s response to Israeli allegations it closed the Rafah crossing dominated the airwaves

Last night on the airwaves: Egypt’s response to allegations put forward by Israel’s legal defense team before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that Egypt blocked humanitarian aid crossing the Rafah border dominated the airwaves last night. Our nation’s talking heads also found time to dive deep into talks with the IMF and a potential ministerial reshuffle coming up.

Egypt debunks Israel’s accusation before the ICJ: The Egyptian authorities will send representatives to the ICJ to object to false Israeli allegations and instead assert that the Rafah border crossing remains open, State Information Service head Diaa Rashwan told Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 7:55). The story was also covered on Masa DMC (watch, runtime: 2:37) and Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 9:48).

The gov’t is playing hardball with the IMF: Mostafa Bakri said on his show that President Abdel Fattah El Sisi gave directions to reject any further conditions that may be imposed by the International Monetary Fund because they could increase the burdens on the citizens. These presidential directives include a pause on currency devaluation and tasking the government with providing USD 3 bn for the central bank to eliminate the black market (watch, runtime: 5:42).

A cabinet reshuffle in the works? Bakri told his viewers that there will be an emergency cabinet reshuffle that will see 13-15 ministers changing posts to remove ministers who failed to carry out their responsibilities over the previous period. The new ministers will be tasked with restructuring the leading roles in their ministries to better serve the presidential reform program (watch, runtime: 5:42)

Egypt kicked off JP Morgan’s Government Bond Index-EMs: Falling off the index for any country makes it harder to attract FDI, finance professor Hassan El Sady said on Al Hekayah (watch, runtime: 19:05). To list debt securities on international exchanges, Egypt could now either hike rates tremendously or grant investors a bigger 15-20% reduction on the nominal value of the bonds, El Sady suggested.

Egypt is getting a green data center. Plus: Safaga logistics area, Palm Hills sales, World Bank visit, Adib + Giza Systems, gold exploration tender extended

INFRASTRUCTURE-

#1-Green data center incoming: A consortium including Swicorp Infra Capital (SIC), Income Egypt, and Record Digital Asset Venture will build, own, and operate a green data center in Egypt, under an MoU inked with the Communications Ministry, according to a cabinet statement. The data center will be powered by some 200 MWs of solar and wind energy and will export digital services to customers abroad.

#2- Safaga could get a USD 50 mn logistics area: The government plans to build a USD 50 mn logistics area behind the Safaga sea port to load and unload goods aboard the high-speed electric rail linking the Red Sea to the Mediterranea, Asharq Business reported, citing two government sources. The land plot for the project will be funded by the government, the sources said.

Remember: A consortium including Siemens Mobility, Orascom Construction, and ArabContractors is set to build the first line of the 1.8k-km national high-speed rail project that will link Ain Sokhna, Alexandria and Marsa Matrouh.

REAL ESTATE-

Palm Hills had a good 2023: Our friends at real estate developer Palm Hills Developments (PHD) have sold EGP 59.5 bn worth of property units over FY 2023, up 129% y-o-y, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf). PHD plans to invest EGP 15 bn in Egypt in 2024.

PRIVATIZATION-

World Bank delegation wraps up visit: A World Bank delegation arrived in Egypt last Tuesday for a multi-day visit in which it met with a number of government officials for discussions centered around the state ownership policy, the International Cooperation Ministry said in a statement. The delegation, alongside Egyptian officials, also discussed potential financing tools and programs that the bank could provide Egypt.

DEBT-

ADIB is cooking up an EGP 5.8 bn facility for Giza Systems: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) is putting together EGP 5.8 bn worth of Sharia-compliant financing for local tech consultancy firm Giza Systems to help it repay outstanding loans and pivot towards a Sharia-compliant capital structure, Asharq Business reports, citing unnamed banking sources.

MINING-

Shalateen’s gold exploration tender gets a third deadline extension: State-owned Shalateen Mining Company has once again extended the deadline of its international gold exploration tender to 8 February to give companies more time to purchase the tender booklet and inspect auctioned sites, Al Masry Al Youm reports.

DEVELOPMENT FINANCE-

Intl’ Cooperation Ministry greenlights USD 19 mn grants from the Swiss government totalling USD 19 mn, to finance the second phase of the potable water management program in Upper Egypt and a sludge treatment project in Beni Suef, according to a ministry readout.

BTC to hit USD 100k on ETFs launch?

Cryptobros dream big: Cryptocurrency investors see BTC surpassing the USD 100k a piece mark in 2024 — up from USD 42.6k currently — following the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to CNBC. ETFs that allow investors to hold and trade cryptos on stock exchanges are expected to attract more investor appetite and boost its use as a mainstream currency as more Wall Street big shots like BlackRock, Invesco, and Fidelity pile into the new offering.

Market reax: BTC briefly hit USD 49k this week on dozens of ETF launches before tumbling down to around the USD 42k mark later in the week. The decline was partially driven by “a lot of selling” of Grayscale BTC Trust shares, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, adding that BTC holders “were selling to book losses and shifting to lower fee alternatives,” Bloomberg reported.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

Shein takes steps towards IPO: Chinese-founded fast fashion giant Shein isseeking Beijing’s permission regarding its planned US IPO — which has received pushback from US lawmakers — in line with Beijing’s new listing rules. (Reuters)

EGX30	25,519	+0.2% (YTD: +2.5%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.83	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	19.25% deposit	20.25% lending
Tadawul	12,116	-0.2% (YTD: +1.2%)
ADX	9,791	-0.5% (YTD: +2.2%)
DFM	4,104	-0.3% (YTD: +1.1%)
S&P 500	4,784	+0.1% (YTD: +0.3%)
FTSE 100	7,625	+0.6% (YTD: -1.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,480	+0.9% (YTD: -0.9%)
Brent crude	USD 78.29	+1.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.31	+7.0%
Gold	USD 2,049.06	+1.0%
BTC	USD 42,964.15	-1.1% (YTD: +1.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.2% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.8 bn (11.3% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were net sellers. The index is up 2.5% YTD.

In the green: B Investments (+3.8%), Oriental Weavers (+3.0%), and Abu Qir Fertilizers (+2.3%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-2.5%), Madinet Masr (-1.9%), and EFG Holding (-1.7%).

Egypt says claims it is preventing the entry of aid into Gaza are Israeli “allegations and lies”:Egypt has “categorically denied” allegations made by Israel during the latter’s defense against charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that the Egypt prevented humanitarian aid flows into Gaza through the Rafah border crossing, State Information Service (SIS) head Diaa Rashwan said in a statement.

ICYMI- The ICJ began hearing South Africa’s case against Israel on Thursday. In the 84-page filing (pdf), South Africa accuses the Israeli government and military of “killing Palestinians in Gaza, causing them serious bodily and mental harm, and inflicting on them conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction”. The case described the Israeli acts as “genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial and ethnic group.”

El Sisi + Blinken: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended his tour of the region in Cairo by meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with on Thursday to discuss the situation in Gaza, according to statements from Ittihadiya and the US Embassy. The two discussed efforts to de-escalate the conflict, ensure the passage of humanitarian aid, and their shared commitment that Palestinans from Gaza are not forcibly displaced.

AND- Israel will not end its war in Gaza unless the 14 km buffer zone along Egypt’sborders is completely sealed, the Jerusalem Post reports Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu as having said.

CALENDAR

2024

JANUARY

17 January (Wednesday): A delegation of Egyptian companies to visit Istanbul.

25 January (Thursday): Revolution Day / Police Day (national holiday).

FEBRUARY

1 February (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

1 February (Thursday): OPEC+ oil market monitoring online meeting.

8 February (Thursday): Deadline to apply to Shalateen Mining Company’s international gold exploration tender.

11 February (Sunday): Deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Programin El Gouna.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline to bid for 23 blocks in an international oil and gas tender.

MARCH

20 March (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

28 March (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 March (Friday): Egypt removed from JPMorgan Chase’s Emerging Local Markets Index Plus.

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC) (national holiday).

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC) (national holiday).

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC) (national holiday).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (national holiday).

23 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 May (Wednesday): Virtual launch of Chicago Booth Executive Program.

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday - Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

January 2024: The Red Sea Ports Authority is set to finalize an agreement with the Abu Dhabi Ports Group for the operation and maintenance of the tourist passenger terminal in the Sharm El Sheikh Sea Port.

1Q 2024: Egyptian-Qatari Joint Supreme Committee.

1Q 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

1H 2024: The European Union is set to hold an investment conference in Egypt during spring.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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