With still more signs of inbound FX, Madbouly is talking up the end of the FX crunch

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What We're Tracking Today

OpenAI shows Sam Altman the door in shock ouster

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THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME is not a EUR 9 bn assistance package from the European Union. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen was in Egypt over the weekend and met with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, but did not announce the investment-heavy package Bloomberg’s Brussels bureau suggested could be on the agenda.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly is talking up an end to the FX crunch, as we note in this morning’s Manufacturing Watch, below. His remarks drew questions from nighttime talk show queen Lamees El Hadidi, who remains handily the smartest biz-econ commentator on the airwaves.

^^ We have more on both stories below.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Silicon Valley is on fire after what has been described as a “coup” at high-flying startup OpenAI, where the board of directors fired co-founder and CEO Sam Altman, saying he was “not consistently candid in his communications with the board.” The board also removed chairman and co-founder Greg Brockman, saying he would stay as president. Brockman later quit, as did a handful of top staff.

Altman was fired via Google Meet, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella — OpenAI’s primary business partner and financial backer — got exactly one minute of advance notice before Altman’s ouster was announced.

Top investors including Microsoft and Thrive Capital are angling to bring Altman back, with the Wall Street Journal reporting at dispatch time this morning that he was “considering” the idea, weighing it against starting a new venture with other staff who followed him out the door. Thanks to his time running Y Combinator, Altman is one of the best-known figures in Silicon Valley and would not face much in the way of obstacles to raising funds for a new startup after taking OpenAI from zero to a valuation that the company thinks is in the USD 90 bn range.

Altman wasn’t ousted for “malfeasance or anything related to our financial, business, safety, or security/privacy practices” but was ousted on the back of a “breakdown in communications between Sam Altman and the board,” according to an internal memo, Axios reports.

So why did he exit stage left? Altman clashed with OpenAI’s co-founder and chief scientist Ilya Sutskever and others over the pace of developing generative AI and steps to mitigate potential harm.

The global business press is describing Altman’s firing as “the story of 2023.” See reporting from Bloomberg | Reuters | Associated Press | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal.

Want to listen instead? Everyone and her brother was out with an “emergency pod” this weekend, including Kara Swisher, Jason Calacanis, and Casey Newton.

ALSO- Elon isn’t having a great day. The tech oligarch is losing advertisers from Apple and IBM to Hollywood studios after endorsing an antisemitic conspiracy theory on his social media platform X. The White House accused him of an "abhorrent promotion of antisemitic and racist hate" and big names including Disney, Warner Bros, and Comcast pulled their adverts.

(Reuters | Financial Times | Bloomberg | Associated Press | Wall Street Journal)

HAPPENING TODAY-

Sameh Shoukry is touring capitals of a “number” of P5 members of the UN Security Council, joining a group of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers who hope to ramp up pressure for Israel to agree to a ceasefire in its war in Gaza. The tour kicks off today, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. It’s not clear where Shoukry will touch down first.

AND- Taking stock of NWFE, the state-led infrastructure program, one year on: A roundtable today will review progress on the USD 15 bn Nexus of Water, Food and Energy (NWFE) initiative, according to a statement (pdf). The International Cooperation Ministry will meet with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and representatives of the EBRD, the US government, and other development finance partners to take stock of where the program stands.

ALSO- Cairo ICT kicks off today at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The tech industry gathering ends on Wednesday.

PSA- Get your raincoats at the ready. There’s a chance of rain with the possibility of thunderstorms across most governorates today and tomorrow as the mercury drops 2-3°C, the Egyptian Meteorological Authority warned in a statement yesterday.

Expect high winds with gusts of nearly 60 km/h this afternoon with scattered showers throughout the day today, according to our favorite weather app.

IN THE HOUSE-

The House is back in session after a one-week break. MPs will sit today and tomorrow.

Building reconciliation bill on the agenda today and tomorrow: MPs will discuss and vote on an updated government bill that will make it easier for owners of illegal buildings to legalize their status in return for paying reconciliation fees. The long-awaited bill, approved by a joint parliamentary committee last Thursday, will replace a 2019 law that has proved problematic for citizens wishing to reconcile their construction violations with state authorities.

Also: A number of committees will hold sessions including the House industrial, SMEs and health committees.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Expect lots of investment news when a Saudi business delegation arrives tomorrow: Egyptian and Saudi companies could sign investment agreements worth up to USD 1.5 bn when a delegation led by Saudi Trade Minister Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi arrives in Egypt tomorrow for the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council. The agreements will cover a range of sectors including energy, real estate, agriculture, and tourism, council member Turki Alhokair said in a statement.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK- The Egy-GCC Business Forum opens on Wednesday — which is also the deadline to apply with the Financial Regulatory Authority for a license to run a credit rating agency.

MARKET WATCH-

OPEC+ is mulling a deeper production cut to support prices: The oil cartel is reportedly considering whether further oil production cuts are needed when it meets later this month, Reuters writes. Oil is down almost 20% since September despite price cuts, Some cartel members are worried that demand will weaken further. KSA and Russia decided earlier this month to leave their production cap in place.

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Egypt sells 30% stake in Eastern Company for USD 625 mn

It’s a wrap on the Eastern stake sale: The Madbouly government has completed the sale of a 30% stake in state-owned tobacco manufacturer Eastern Company for USD 625 mn, making it the single-largest transaction since it rebooted its privatization strategy earlier this year.

New Emirati shareholders: The UAE-based Global Investment Holding (GIH) purchased 669 mn shares from the company’s state-owned majority shareholder for EGP 24.52 apiece, totaling EGP 16.4 bn (USD 532 mn), the Public Enterprises Ministry said in a statement (pdf) Thursday. The transaction will make GIH the company’s single-largest shareholder.

A top-up: GIH agreed to pay an additional EGP 4.38 per share, taking the total value of the transaction to EGP 19.3 bn (USD 625 mn), according to the statement. The ministry did not disclose which state coffer will be the ultimate beneficiary of the funds.

GIH bought the shares in USD and settled the transaction the day before it closed. The money will be transferred from abroad under the agreement.

USD > EGP: The state offering program is a key part of the government’s strategy to bring an end to the 18+ month FX shortage. The government has so far had mixed results in selling assets for hard currency, with stake sales to ADQ recently bringing in USD 800 mn but sales of shares in both Telecom Egypt and Al Ezz Dekheila shares being done primarily in EGP.

The state no longer has a controlling interest in the firm: State-owned Chemical Industries Holding Company’s (CIHC), the former majority shareholder of Eastern, sold the entire 30% stake, reducing its ownership to 20.95%. The Allan Gray Africa ex-SA equity fund owns another 7.21% stake in the company while the labor union holds a 5.2% share. The remaining shares are in freefloat.

Market reax: Eastern Company shares rose 0.9% to close at EGP 27.95 on Thursday.

Remember: The government announced in September that the Emirati firm had agreed to purchase the stake for USD 625 mn in addition to a USD 150 mn investment to help it overcome the economic headwinds and purchase manufacturing inputs.

Eastern could be facing an antitrust probe:Tobacco distributors JTI-Nakhla and Al Mansour International Distribution Company last week filed a complaint with the Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) accusing Eastern and GIH of engaging in monopolistic practices. The ECA has yet to publicly say it has received the complaint and has not confirmed it is starting an investigation.

What’s next for the privatization program: Cabinet is expecting to finalize agreements to sell a significant stake in its hotels holding company and military-owned fuel retailer Wataniya.

IMF “seriously considering” increasing Egypt’s loan, says Georgieva

Larger IMF program for Egypt under consideration, says Georgieva: The IMF is “seriously considering” increasing Egypt’s USD 3 bn loan program as the conflict in Gaza poses difficulties for the country, IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters during the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in California last week. She did not provide further details of any potential changes to the program.

Georgieva thinks we’re looking at a difficult path ahead because of the Gaza war: “Investors are going to be shy to go to [these countries]. The cost of ins., if you want to move goods, they go up. Risks of even more refugees in countries that are already accepting more,” the IMF chief said last month.

The government is reportedly looking for another USD 2 bn: Egypt is in talks with the IMF to increase its loan program to more than USD 5 bn, according to unconfirmed media reports in October. The fund will need to sign off on the first two reviews of the program before any announcement is made topping up the loan, the sources added.

But an increase might mean more strings attached: Economist Hany Geneina told us last month that the Fund could increase the loan in return for a commitment to undertaking reforms early in 2024, including the currency float and a lifting of energy subsidies.

Remember: The IMF postponed reviews scheduled for March and September after authorities failed to meet several conditions of the facility, including a commitment to implement a fully flexible exchange rate. However, Georgieva said last month that “Egypt has made good progress on a number of fronts,” but warned that the country will continue to “bleed” reserves if the currency is not devalued.

ICYMI- The EU is also putting together a financial aid package because of the war on Gaza: The EU is reportedly putting together an assistance package that could see nearly USD 10 bn invested in Egypt and European creditors offer some form of debt relief. The bloc’s new initiative is driven by worries that a faltering Egyptian economy coupled with refugee flows from Israel’s brutal war on Gaza would mean an uptick in cross-Mediterranean migration.

Global Auto Group sign binding framework agreement to assemble cars in Egypt

More Egyptian-made BMWs? Global Auto Group (GAG), the agent and importer for BMW and Mini in Egypt, has signed a binding framework agreement with the Madbouly government to assemble cars locally, according to a cabinet statement on Thursday. No further details confirming the car brand or the location, size, and cost of the project were provided.

This isn’t Global Auto Group’s first auto-assembly rodeo: After acquiring the rights to be BMW Group’s official importer and assembler Egypt in November 2022, Global Auto Group restarted the local assembly of BMWs after an almost five-year hiatus in January 2023.

Bigger, greener, and for export? Although the cabinet statement was slim on details, Prime Minister Madbouly made reference to the agreement in light of the Finance Ministry’s Environmentally Friendly Automotive Industry Fund (EFAIF). Global Auto has also shown an interest in electric cars by signing a strategic partnership with Infinity to charge electric BMWs at their charging stations. The company has also repeatedly made it clear its aims since acquiring the local rights to BMW to expand production and eventually begin exporting to other countries.

Who’s behind Global Auto Group? Global Auto is a joint venture between Kuwait’s Ali Alghanim & Sons Automotive, Saudi Arabia’s Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors, and local firms Organi Group and Al Safi Group.

ICYMI- We’re getting serious about our local auto industry: As part of the recently relaunched Egyptian Automotive Industry Development Program (AIDP) to localize the automotive industry and its feeder industries, the Madbouly government is exploring the creation of a new auto industrial zone. Recent government incentives for the industry and efforts to drum up investment have led to foreign companies eyeing up new auto plants, local companies planning to expand their operations, and Egyptian companies teaming up to assemble foreign car brands locally.

CIB lands EBRD loan: EGX-listed CIB, the nation’s leading private-sector bank, is getting a USD 150 mn subordinated loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to strengthen its tier II capital, support growth, and protect it from external economic shocks, according to the lender’s website. The exact terms of the loan were not disclosed.

What they said: “This subordinated loan will not only help CIB further boost its capital base but also support our ambitious growth plans and unlock numerous opportunities the Egyptian market has to offer,” CIB Chairman Hisham Ezz El Arab said.

ICYMI- CIB has been hit by a raft of sovereign credit downgrades:Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch have all downgraded the bank’s credit ratings deeper into junk territory over the past month due to its exposure to government debt.

Japan’s Mitsui invests in Wadi Poultry + PIF ups stake in e-Finance

We have news of two cases of inbound foreign direct investment for you folks this morning. And while it won’t surprise any of you that Saudi wealth fund PIF is taking more of e-Finance, Wadi Poultry’s sale of a stake to Japan’s Mitsui is interesting and took us by surprise.

#1- Mitsui & Co. gets a slice of Wadi Poultry. The Tokyo-headquartered and -listed company agreed to purchase a stake in Egyptian broiler chicken producer Wadi Poultry, statements from both companies showed on Friday (here and here, pdf). The size of the stake and the investment were not disclosed, though Mitsuit’s release suggests that the buy is big enough that it will hold Wadi as an associate. Mitsui acquired the stake in the Freiji-family-owned company through a UAE-based vehicle.

Wadi is looking to harness the partnership with Mitsui to grow at home and throughout the region. Mitsui has been expanding in north and west Africa since its 2018 acquisition of a business in Morocco.

Wadi Poultry captures the full value chain, from the production of breeding chickens and broilers to processing and distribution. It employs some 2.6k people.

ADVISORS: Zilla Capital acted as the financial advisor to Wadi Group and Adsero-Ragy Soliman was counsel.

#2- e-Finance is now a little bit more Saudi: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has raised its stake in EGX-listed fintech player e-Finance by two percentage points to 27% by purchasing freefloat shares, e-Finance Chairman Ibrahim Sarhan told Al Arabiya in an interview on Thursday. The Saudi Egyptian Investment Company — the PIF’s investment arm in Egypt — had reportedly been looking to increase its ownership of the company to 28%.

BACKGROUND- The Saudi wealth fund acquired 25% of the company last year for EGP 7.5 bn, becoming its single-largest shareholder and getting it two seats on the board. This was part of a wider USD 1.3 bn investment in state-held shares of EGX-listed companies.

Cabinet greenlights bill for simpler property tenure regularization + Egypt, Croatia agreement to eliminate double taxation

The Madbouly cabinet approved a draft law that it says will make it easier for building owners to settle with the government if they’ve built on state-owned land. Applicants that have encroached on state land will, if the bill passes, have six months to file to legalize. The registration window could be extended for another six months by a presidential decree.

The bill is on the agenda in the House of Representatives today and tomorrow as MPs reconvene, and Cabinet said it will fast-track the executive regulations to the act, aiming to have them in place within 30 days.

ALSO APPROVED BY CABINET-

No double taxation with Croatia: Cabinet approved an agreement that will make it easier to avoid double taxation on income and capital, crackdown on tax evasion, and facilitate capital flows between the two countries.
New age caps for organ transplants: Amendments to the organ transplant regulations, including a new age limit of 60 years for kidney donors, and 50 years for other organ transplant procedures. Exceptions can be approved by the Health Minister.
Extension for Sinai land rules: A one-year extension to the current applied rules to ownership and usufruct for land tenure holders in Sinai.

Egypt’s PM talks up the end of the FX crunch after tour of 10 Ramadan, Obour

Talking up FDI: Cabinet made a concerted effort to talk up the state of investment by companies in Obour City and Tenth of Ramadan City. The trigger? A tour by Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly.

The volume of investment is a sign the FX crunch is “nearing its end,” Madbouly declared yesterday, pointing to the hundreds of mns of USD that have been invested in the factories by foreign investors (watch, runtime: 2:03). His remarks came after the EGP hit a new low of 50 to the greenback last week in the parallel market — and as futures also sagged to new lows while gold and share prices soared to fresh highs.

Here’s what you need to know:

Chinese home appliances manufacturer Haier Egypt has finished the first phase of its USD 135 mn industrial complex in Tenth of Ramadan City, and trial operations are expected to begin by March 2024. The company has agreed to a local content requirement of 60% (rising to 70% in two years), and 30% of production will be exported. (Statement)
Saudi Arabia’s Jamjoom Pharma has kicked off operations atits EGP 3 bn factory in Obour with a production estimate of 120 mn units per year. (Statement)
Turkey’s KCG Textile factory in Tenth of Ramadan has generated annual revenues of USD 65 mn since opening in 2007 through cooperation with brands such as Ikea and Zara. The company has invested USD 75 mn in the project and is looking to build another factory in the SCZone. (Statement)
Italian chemicals manufacturer Mapei has completed the first phase of its USD 25 mn factory in Tenth of Ramadan. The facility will produce 100k tons of chemical products when it opens next year. (Statement)
Turkey’s Bekowill finish the first phase of its USD 100 mn home appliances factory in Tenth of Ramadan during 1Q 2024. More than 60% of the factory’s annual output of 1.2 mn devices will be exported. (Statement)
German-Lebanese GLC Paints is looking to invest USD 25 mn into its factory in Obour. The company has so far invested EGP 2.5 bn into the facility, which generates USD 20 mn of export revenues every year. (Statement)
Egypt’s Insutech wants to invest EGP 400 mn into its insulation materials factory in Tenth of Ramadan City to add new production lines. (Statement)

Israel forces doctors, patients out of Al Shifa hospital, prepares to attack south Gaza

Israeli forces yesterday ordered doctors, patients and refugees to evacuate Gaza City’s Al Shifa Hospital, a medical complex described by a visiting UN / World Health Organization team yesterday as a “death zone.” Doctors and witnesses reported that the IDF had given the thousands of people still at the hospital an hour to leave the area and escorted some of them out at gunpoint, a charge denied by Israel. One doctor described the scene as “horrible, unprecedented” as wounded people were forced out of the hospital and taunted by Israeli troops. Twenty-five health workers and almost 300 critical patients remain in the hospital, according to the WHO team.

All for nothing: Israeli forces have laid siege to Al Shifa — the largest hospital in Gaza — for more than a week, claiming that the operation was necessary to unearth Hamas’ headquarters which they said was underneath the complex. Four days after it first raided the hospital, the IDF has produced only images of a few guns and a small hole in the ground.

ON THE GROUND- More than 80 Palestinians were killed yesterday in a double Israeli strike — including one on a UN school — on the densely-populated Jabalia refugee camp, an attack decried by Egypt as a war crime and a “deliberate insult to the UN.” Forty-seven were killed by Israeli air strikes carried out on residential blocks in Khan Younis.

Remember: The Gaza Health Ministry is no longer able to provide an accurate death toll due to Israel shutting down almost all of the hospitals in north Gaza. The official death toll surpassed 12k over the weekend — 70% of whom are women and children — but the actual figure is expected to be far higher, with thousands of people remaining under the rubble and ambulances no longer able to reach the wounded across much of the territory.

Israel is preparing to force Gazans further south: Israeli forces have already displaced 70% of Gaza’s 2.3 mn population, including forcing hundreds of thousands to evacuate the north of the territory south of Wadi Gaza. Now it’s ordering residents in the southern city of Khan Younis — the second-largest city in Gaza with a population of 400k before the war — to leave their homes ahead of an expected offensive in the south.

EU NOT ON BOARD WITH ETHNIC CLEANSING

The EU isn’t on board with forced displacement: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed Egypt’s rejection of Israeli ambitions to forcibly displace Gazans into the Sinai during talks with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in Cairo on Saturday. “We agree on the principle of no forced displacement of Palestinians and a political horizon based on a two-state solution,” she wrote on X following the talks.

NO NEWS ON INVESTMENT PACKAGE

No news on rumored EU assistance package: Neither side elaborated on discussions over a rumored major financial assistance package reported by Bloomberg last week. According to the news outlet, the EU is planning to mobilize almost USD 10 bn in investment for Egypt and provide some form of debt relief to stabilize the economy and prevent a new wave of migration in the wake of the Gaza conflict. The two sides are working on a “strategic, comprehensive partnership,” von der Leyen said, without providing further details.

Shoukry denies displacement-for-debt-relief pact: Israel and the US have not offered to give Egypt debt relief in return for taking in Palestinian refugees, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told reporters on Thursday.

Five countries demand ICC investigation into Israeli war crimes: Five nations have filed a referral to the International Criminal Court to investigate the alleged war crimes committed by the Israeli military in Gaza. ICC prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan confirmed receiving the referral on Friday, which was submitted by South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, and Djibouti.

South Africa to cut all ties with Israel: South Africa’s ruling party said on Thursday it will back an opposition motion to close Israel’s embassy and suspend all diplomatic ties until it agrees to a ceasefire, according to Reuters.

ALSO IN DIPLOMACY- El Sisi spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron | Shoukry spoke to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the head of the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees | Jordan cancels water-for-energy agreement with Israel | Erdogan says Germany siding with Israel because of holocaust guilt in “tense” presser with German Chancellor Scholz.

AID- Israel finally buckles to pressure, will allow small amounts of fuel: Israel has agreed to allow 140k liters of fuel into Gaza every two days following pressure from the US and UN. This is only half the amount required to sustain essential services such as aid deliveries, water systems, hospitals and bakeries.

More genocidal rhetoric: The decision by the cabinet to allow in fuel didn’t sit well with everyone in the Israeli Knesset, with the deputy speaker becoming the latest Israeli official taking to X to issue a genocidal statement. “We are too humane. Burn Gaza now no less,” the far-right Likud MP wrote.

Integrated Diagnostics Holdings increases revenues 40% in 3Q earnings earnings

Record test volumes and pickup in footfall fueled strong quarter: Integrated Diagnostics Holdings (IDH) logged EGP 176 mn in net income for 3Q 2023, up from a net loss of EGP 36 mn in the same period last year that was attributable to a one-off expense, according to the company’s e arnings release (pdf). Consolidated revenues for the quarter were up 40% y-o-y to EGP 1.2 bn, driven by a quarterly record of over over 10 million tests and a pickup in patient footfall mainly in Egypt and Jordan.

Marginal dip in 9M bottom line: IDH’s net income fell 4% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2023 to EGP 387 mn, while revenues increased 9% y-o-y to EGP 3.1 bn on the back of a 16% increase in conventional test volumes and 24% increase in average revenue per test.

What they said: “While our results from the first half of the year were somewhat diluted by increasing inflationary environments, particularly in our home market, Egypt, as well as several seasonal slowdowns due to the holy month of Ramadan and other holidays, the company’s strong performance in the third quarter of the year has significantly outpaced the past two quarters,” IDH’s CEO Hend El Sherbini said.

Ibrahim El Segeny to head Egypt’s Consumer Protection Agency

The Consumer Protection Agency is under new leadership: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has appointed Ibrahim El Segeny to serve as the head of the Consumer Protection Agency for one year, according to a cabinet statement yesterday. El Segeny has previously served as the assistant trade minister and acted as chairman of the Egyptian Competition Authority.

Madbouly talks up end of FX crisis, but Lamees has questions

It was an economy-heavy night on the talk shows, with the latest on our USD crisis and IMF program center stage throughout the evening’s topics of conversation.

Madbouly acknowledges USD shortage: “Egypt is facing a currency crisis, but it will be over soon,” Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said yesterday during a press statement (watch, runtime: 2:58). He also argued that this crisis has highlighted the need for Egypt to localize production.

Lamees didn’t take it well: “This is not the first time we hear such comments,” Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi told her viewers and urged the the Madbouly government to tell the public how the currency crisis will be handled (watch, runtime: 3:19). “We cannot blame this on the covid-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, or even the war on Gaza. These are problems that came on top of already existing problems like spending priorities and carelessness regarding industry … We need a more resilient economy,” she added.

Economic reforms are key, according to economist Medhat Nafei (watch, runtime: 8:10) and banking expert Tarek Metwally (watch, runtime: 10:06).

Don’t get too excited about a potentially bigger IMF program, says Adib. A larger IMF program increased by USD 2 bn to USD 5 bn will come with extra conditions, a large chunk of which will be difficult to fulfill, El Hekaya’s Amr Adib said in his usual calm and collected way (watch, runtime: 3:28). Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 6:38) and Masa’a DMC (watch, runtime: 2:52) both had the news and we’ve got our own coverage in the news well, above.

Sugar is back in the market: The Supply Ministry has tapped into its reserves to help fill the gap in sugar supply that pushed prices to soar up to EGP 40 per kilo from their usual EGP 27, ministry spokesman Ahmed Kamal told Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 2:22).

ALSO ON THE AIRWAVES- Yamama continues his media tour: Al Wafd’s presidential candidate Abdel Sanad Yamama was on Ala Maso’uleety (watch, runtime: 5:57 | 3:14 | 3:23) last night to tell viewers what a Yamana presidency would look like. Yamana pledged to raise the minimum wage to EGP 5k within a year, boost private sector activity, and better manage state assets.

Every vote counts, even from overseas: Emigration Minister Soha Gendy joined Masa’a DMC (watch,runtime: 8:00) to push Egyptian expats to vote in the upcoming presidential elections.

Boycott of Western goods gets coverage in the regional press

This morning in the foreign press: Local brands get a boost amid BDS support in Egypt. Local soft drinks are fast replacing brands like Pepsi and Coca-Cola which are believed by some consumers to have voiced support for Israel, amid the snowballing boycott movement in Egypt, the National reports. “There have been many other boycotts of various imported products over the years … but in my 40 years in the business, I haven’t seen people this committed,” one shopkeeper tells the news outlet.

ALSO- Ramses II exhibition in Sydney is the national museum’s largest in 200 years:‘Ramses & the Gold of the Pharaohs’ launched this weekend at Australia’s oldest museum, being valued at over USD 1.6 bn and having already pre-sold over 100k tickets ahead of the opening. (The Guardian | Al Monitor)

Hilton and Amazon Developments to build hotel in new capital tower. PLUS news from IFC, Jan De Nul, EgyptAir

HOSPITALITY-

Hilton partners with Amazon Developments for new capital hotel: American hospitality giant Hilton Hotels & Resorts has inked a contract with the Egypt-focused Emirati real estate developer Amazon Developments to establish a hotel inside a tower it is constructing in the new capital, according to a press release cited in Al Mal. The 120-room hotel with four restaurants and a swimming pool is expected to open in 2026. Hilton is currently in the process doubling its presence in Egypt by building and opening 13 new hotels by 2028 as of March 2023.

HEALTHCARE-

The IFC could have a hand in increasing the private sector’s role in healthcare:Health Ministry officials held talks over the weekend with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) about expanding public-private partnerships in the healthcare sector, the ministry said yesterday.

Remember: The IFC is advising Egypt on its state privatization program.

ENERGY-

Jan De Nul inks Mediterranean link MoU: Belgian maritime services provider Jan De Nul will start studying a project to export renewable energy of at least 2 GW from Egypt to Europe via a Mediterranean link, under an MoU inked with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) on Thursday, according to a cabinet statement. The cabinet greenlit the move last month.

** There are a number of other proposed Egypt-Europe interconnection projects in the works that we covered in a Going Green published earlier this year.

AVIATION-

EgyptAir announces new Cairo-Shanghai route: National carrier EgyptAir has started direct flights between Cairo International Airport and China’s Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the state-owned company said yesterday. Flights will run three times a week and increase the total number of weekly EgyptAir-operated flights to China to 16.

BARTER ECONOMY-

Oil-for-meds swap? The Export Council for Medical Industries is lobbying for a USD 300 mn swap agreement that would see Egypt receive oil from Venezuela in return for made-in-Egypt meds. Council chief Maged George is talking up the prospects of an agreement with Al Borsa and says the Oil Ministry is aware of the idea.

Global debt hits record high -IIF

Global debt is no small matter: Global debt hit a fresh record of just over USD 307 tn in 3Q 2023 and the debt-to-output ratio among emerging markets also reached new territory, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) cited by Reuters. The world’s total debt is expected to climb to USD 310 tn by the year’s end, which would represent an increase of 25% in the last five years.

Populism could be making things worse: An era of geopolitical uncertainty and increasing political polarization could tip the balance in favor of populist policies in upcoming elections around the world, the IIF report estimates.Populist governance could lead to Increased government borrowing and spending, as well as with lax fiscal policy that would “create further volatility in the markets,” the group’s director of sustainable research said in a press briefing cited by the newswire.

Emerging markets are the most vulnerable to increasing levels of debt: The debt-to-GDP ratio in emerging markets rose to 255% in the third quarter of the year, largely down to spiraling debt in Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia. This figure is up 32 percentage points from the same period five years ago, whilst global debt-to-GDP, which includes developed markets, held steady at 333%.

We are in “alarming” levels of debt: The IIF singled out us and Pakistan as the countries whose total revenues were most consumed by debt repayments. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, our debt servicing bill came in at around EGP 392 bn, which represented almost double the revenues made in the same period, according to the Finance Ministry.

EGX30	24,383	+1% (YTD: +67.0%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.83	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	19.25% deposit	20.25% lending
Tadawul	11,082	+0.5% (YTD: +5.8%)
ADX	9,575	-0.3% (YTD: -6.2%)
DFM	3,995	+0.3% (YTD: +19.7%)
S&P 500	4,514	+0.1% (YTD: +17.6%)
FTSE 100	7,504	+1.3% (YTD: +0.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,341	+0.9% (YTD: +14.4%)
Brent crude	USD 80.61	+4.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.96	-3.3%
Gold	USD 1,984.70	-0.1%
BTC	USD 36,547.02	-0.2% (YTD: +121.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.0% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.4 bn (29% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 67.0% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Development (+5.6%), Palm Hills Development (+5.0%) and Qalaa Holdings (+5.0%).

In the red: CIRA Education (-2.7%), Madinet Masr (-0.8%) and Talaat Moustafa Group (-0.4%).

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

19 November (Sunday): House reconvenes.

22 November (Wednesday): Deadline to apply to FRA for credit rating license.

22 November (Wednesday): The EGY-GCC Business Forum opening session.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

23 November (Thursday): The Saudi Egyptian Real Estate Investment Conference.

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

Signposted to happen some time in November:

Bidding deadline for 5 gold mine concessions in the Eastern Desert (TBC).

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Friday-Sunday): Egyptian expats vote in the presidential election.

4-7 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defence Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

10-12 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Voting in presidential election takes place in Egypt.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
Gov’t expects to finalize stake sale for military-owned fuel retailer Wataniya.
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm
Kenyan trade conference in Egypt.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline for bidders for oil and gas expansion in the 23 new regions.

Q1 2024: Opening of the new developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2024

JANUARY

7 January (Sunday): Coptic Christmas.

17 January (Wednesday): A delegation of Egyptian companies to visit Istanbul.

25 January (Thursday): Revolution day.

FEBRUARY

11 February (Sunday): The deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Program

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (TBC).

29 May (Wednesday): Chicago Booth Executive Program

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day.

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

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