Analysts split on Egypt interest rate path ahead of CBE meeting on Thursday

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What We're Tracking Today

EU could offer Egypt wheat, fertilizer shipments in return for stemming migration -FT

Good morning, folks: We have another packed issue for you this morning, so let’s jump into it.

PSA #1- Registration for the expat car-for-FX initiative officially kicked off yesterday after a bill to relaunch the scheme was signed into law earlier in the day, the Immigration Ministry said in a statement. Expats can sign up via the government app on Google Play and the App Store.

PSA #2- We’ve got a few more foggy mornings ahead: The nation-wide heavy fog that takes over the streets during the early hours of the morning will continue until Sunday, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority. The EMA also forecasts light to moderate rain in various parts of the country in the coming days.

It’s interest rate week: The Central Bank of Egypt is expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets on Thursday, according to a majority of the analysts we spoke to for our customary poll. Analysts participating in a Reuters poll shared the same outlook, with the median forecast being that the CBE will leave rates on hold as the government tries to stabilize the market ahead of the December presidential election and the ongoing crisis in Gaza. This echoes Standard Chartered ’s stance, which sees no interest rate changes or devaluations before the end of the year.

Before that: The Federal Reserve is kicking off its two-day policy meeting today. The market is pricing in a 99.5% chance that the Fed keeps rates on hold as inflation tempers and the war in Gaza triggers fresh uncertainty for the global economy.

^^ Check out the poll in the news well, below.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Our upcoming aid package from the EU could mean more grain shipments: Egypt could be getting more Ukrainian grain or fertilizers as part of a wider support package from the EU to help Egypt mitigate a potential uptick in migration to Europe resulting from the ongoing war on Gaza, the Financial Times wrote. The move is part of a wider agreement in the works that would also cover border management and economic support from the bloc.

The big question: Does any of this relate to Israel’s plan to displace Palestinians into Egypt? Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netayahu is pushing EU countries to support plans to forcibly displace Gaza’s 2.3 mn citizens into Egypt. Egyptian officials have vehemently rejected any such idea and, according to the FT, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes them. Still, the idea has received a positive response among some of the bloc’s member states, who are talking about raising pressure on Cairo to accept refugees.

^^ We have more in this morning’s War Watch, below.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

The war in Gaza continues to dominate global attention this morning, with Reuters, the Associated Press, the Financial Times and the Washington Post all covering Israel’s ongoing ground offensive in the besieged territory. The fog of war is in full effect, with few details being reported about the fighting between the IDF and Hamas, though unconfirmed reports earlier yesterday suggested that the IDF was attempting to surround Gaza City.

Meanwhile: The New York Times leads with a piece on the Biden administration’s discursive shift which has seen officials tone down the hawkish rhetoric and emphasize the protection of civilians (but do nothing to prevent the Israelis from killing them). Turns out displays of indifference to war crimes and attempts to discredit the Palestinian death count don’t play too well to, well, most of the world.

ALSO- Apple unveils new line of MacBooks. Alongside the war on Gaza and its implications on global markets (which we dive into in the news well, below), the business press is focused on a new line of Apple products hitting the market soon. In a presentation yesterday, Apple unveiled new M3 chips, MacBook Pros, and a new iMac model that will hit the market between next week and late November. (CNBC | Bloomberg | Reuters | Wall Street Journal)

MARKET WATCH-

Escalation in Gaza could shake up the global economy: “The higher the risk of escalation [in Gaza], the higher the risk of contagion to the rest of the world in terms of economics and finance,” Allianz Chief Economist Mohamed El Erian said, according to CNBC. El Erian pointed to the already fragile global economy struggling with stagnating growth, high inflation, and the broader fragmentation of markets, adding that the war “amplifies all of the challenges.”

One sector is already feeling the heat of the war: European gas prices have risen some 40% since the war on Gaza broke out on 7 October, Euronews reported. Gas prices in the region have been reacting drastically to war developments, with benchmark Dutch TTF rallying almost 7% in early trading, before cooling off, in response to the news of Israel halting all gas exports to Egypt, pushing the country’s gas imports to zero from a previous 800 mn cubic feet of gas per day. Last year Egypt and Israel inked a gas export agreement with the EU, under which Israel agreed to send more gas to Egypt’s LNG facilities before exporting it on tankers to European shores. The agreement came amid European efforts to phase out the continent’s reliance on Russian gas.

Oil prices are also at risk: The World Bank sees oil prices soaring as high as USD 140-157 a barrel if the war escalates to cause “large disruptions,” which would shrink global oil supply by 6-8 mn bbl / day, it said in a press release. The Bank sees prices jumping to USD 109-121 a barrel in the case of a “medium disruption” and to USD 93-102 a barrel in the case of “small disruptions.” Prices have so far risen 6% since the start of the conflict in Gaza. The World Bank’s current forecast puts prices at USD 90 a barrel in 4Q 2023 and at USD 81 a barrel in 2024.

Meanwhile, in Egypt: US asset manager VanEck’s Egypt Index rose 19% last week, marking its best weekly performance since June 2012, before falling 3% during trading yesterday, Reuters wrote. The VanEck Egypt Exchange-Traded Fund saw the highest amount of inflows in seven months on Thursday, with net inflows of USD 1.2 mn. “Egypt (stock market) is up more because of local investors looking for a hedge for high inflation, rather than a revisit by foreign investors, who remain concerned about devaluation,” Tellimer’s Hasnain Malik told Reuters. The EGX30 surged to a record highyesterday to settle at 23.4k points for the first time ever.

Investor fears seem to have calmed down with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% yesterday, marking its biggest one-day gains since August after it slipped into correction last week. The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite also rose 1.2%, while the Euro Stoxx gained 0.4% following two weeks of losses.

Egyptian tourism officials see October arrivals closing up 10% despite war, aim to keep airlines and operators engaged with incentives + marketing spend

We lead the news well this morning with a deep look at the state of the tourism industry, now arguably our largest source of foreign currency and a sector that directly or indirectly supports roughly one out of every seven jobs in the country.

Officials are working overtime to blunt the impact on the industry of Israel’s war in Gaza. Just a few weeks ago, we weren’t just talking about a record 2023 for Egypt’s tourism industry — we were looking forward to an even more promising 2024. That’s changed in recent days, as regional media outlets have raised questions about cancellation rates heading into the final months of the year amid reports that a growing number of tourists are delaying booking decisions.

Smart strategy paid off in 2023, where we’ve seen tourism arrivals come in at 11 mn in the first nine months of the year, with a record 4.2 mn people visiting in the three months ending 30 September. The industry’s boom prior to 7 October owes to a basket of factors, including:

Climbing the value chain: Faced with the loss of Ukrainian and Russian tourists after the outbreak of war last year, tourism officials made a smart play: Instead of trying to drive demand with incentives, they focused on reducing the risk for the value chain on the supply side; that encouraged operators to allocate resources to Egyptian tourism products. In practical terms, this meant additional incentives for aviation, co-marketing campaigns, and other programs directed at international wholesalers to encourage them to put the product in the hands of retailers in source countries.
Post-covid catch-up has seen plenty of well-heeled European, North American and Asian tourists eager to check an Egyptian holiday off their bucket lists.
Diversification of our inbound markets to make us more attractive to longer-term growth markets such as China, India, and beyond.
An industry-wide emphasis on “committed sales” where operators commit to blocks of seats, rooms, et cetera, from clients who pay deposits up front.

Where are we now: We’ll still see tourist arrivals in October close 10% above the same period last year, a top official told us. That’s about 15% short of the ministry’s target for October, but an exceptional performance in light of the shift in mood on the Middle East since 7 October. The shortfall owes primarily to regional tours — packages that take visitors through Egypt, Jordan, and Israel — as well as a drying up of the Israeli market. There have been no significant cancellations “in source markets that have bought ‘Egypt-only’ products,” the official told us.

“The Israeli market has left Sinai, certainly,” said Hamed El Chiaty, who leads Travco, the nation’s largest owner and operator of hotels. “But the turndown in other markets, including the UK, Belgium, and Scandinavia, appears now to have been temporary as people absorbed what was happening with the war. There was definitely a drop-off in the first days, but there’s a growing understanding that Egypt is safe and that mainland and Red Sea destinations are very far from what’s happening.”

Travco has seen bookings picking up “in the past three or four days,” El Chaity added. “It’s starting to improve, particularly bookings for Hurghada and Marsa Alam.”

Where’s the risk? It’s all about how long Israel’s war in Gaza lasts. Officials think they have visibility through the end of the year, the senior official told us, but “the concern now is for January and February,” as tourists making bookings now may be reticent about paying reservation fees in light of what’s happening in the region. The hope is that we’re talking about “delayed” bookings and not “lost” bookings, a high-profile industry CEO told us.

Senior government officials are leading a crisis response plan that’s going down well with many top industry participants we spoke with. Among the highlights:

#1- A clearinghouse for ideas and problem-solving. Tourism Minister Ahmed Issa has pulled together a high-powered committee that includes top industry players (think: El Chiaty and Naguib Sawiris), regulators, and industry associations. It gives industry participants a forum through which to stay on the same page.

#2- Blanket outreach to the 300 operators who make up our full value chain: “Our priorities are to keep the airlines committed with all the seats, the wholesale tour operators committed with all the hotel rooms, and the retailers committed to sell the product on the streets of the source countries. So, when the crisis ends, last-minute bookings can find the product available for them to buy by January in February,” the senior official told us.

#3- Fresh incentives are in the works, including an “extension of the aviation incentive program for the next period, while lowering the qualifying load factor for flight eligibility for incentives,” according to an Egyptian Tourism Authority (ETA) communication sent to top industry players globally.

#4- More marketing: The ETA is coughing up additional funding for joint marketing campaigns as well as for “familiarization trips” to Egypt for both international tour operators and airlines. More money for an “extensive [targeted] online campaign” is also in the works, the note from the ETA says.

#5- Happy tourists are the best ambassadors: The ETA is working with operators to capture video and other testimonials from satisfied tourists now on the ground in Egypt, making the case “in a variety of languages” that Egypt is a great, safe place to visit.

THE INDUSTRY IS, SO FAR, TAKING IT IN STRIDE-

Local leaders like Travco aren’t pulling back from investment plans: El Chiaty says Travco is pushing ahead with plans to open eight new hotels nationwide. “All are under construction and we’ll be completing properties in November and February, with the rest to come before July of next year.” The properties are split across Marsa Alam, Cairo, Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada, and Travco is also in the process of closing the acquisition of two new hotels in Cairo.

Global hotel brands are also doubling down on Egypt:Accor and Hilton have both recently announced ambitions to scale their footprint in Egypt in the coming years.

Analysts split on Egypt interest rate path ahead of central bank meeting

Where rates currently stand: The overnight deposit rate stands at 19.25%, while the overnight lending rate is 20.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates are at 19.75%. Rates have risen 1.1k bps since March 2022.

Interest rate hikes seem to be losing their ability to curb inflation: Several analysts said that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates further because the policy tool seems to be losing its ability to control inflation. “In my opinion, the stubborn inflation rate has now lost the ability to interact with interest rate changes,” banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal told Enterprise.

Inflation at record highs despite aggressive hikes: Inflation reached a fresh all-time high of 38% last month and has been running above 30% since February, despite the central bank aggressively raising interest rates to their highest levels since the early 1990s. Zilla Capital’s Aya Zoheir puts this down to the FX crunch. The central bank is “fully convinced that without abundant USD liquidity in the exchange market, the interest rate tool will not achieve any targeted effect of reducing inflation,” she told us.

Weighing the costs: “Raising the interest rate alone during the current situation will be an additional burden on the budget without a significant desired benefit,” Al Ahly Pharos’ Israa Ahmed told Enterprise. A 100 bps increase in interest rates will add at least EGP 70 bn to the government’s interest bill, economic expert Medhat Nafie said.

Plus, inflation might be stabilizing: That’s according to EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha, who expects the CBE to leave rates unchanged due to “the near-stability” of inflation rates.

The anticipated devaluation will be in mind: Policymakers will want to maximize the policy space available to them when they go ahead with the anticipated EGP devaluation at the end of this year or in early 2024. Any rate hikes done this week will limit how much they can tighten policy to stabilize the currency following the devaluation.

But the FX crunch may force the CBE to act sooner: A third of the analysts and economists that responded to our poll predicted that interest rates will be raised in Thursday’s meeting and pointed to FX shortages as one of the main culprits. HC Securities’ Heba Mounir expects it to raise rates by 100 bps to “defend the currency against dollarization and purchases of gold by Egyptian citizens,” followed by an additional 100 bps before the end of the year.

Volatility spiked in the parallel currency market last week: The EGP fell to a record low against the greenback in the black market last week in the wake of the central bank’s restrictions on credit card use. The FX liquidity squeeze and pressure on the exchange rate is going to require the CBE to raise rates by 200-300 bps during the next two MPC meetings, said Ali Metwally, an analyst at UK-based risk assessment firm Infospectrum. Meanwhile, Zilla Capital’s Aya Zoheir predicts a 150-200 bps rate hike at the December meeting.

Curb your inflation: While many of those polled mirrored banking expert Hany Aboul Fotouh’s predictions that the EGP “will continue to weaken against the USD in the medium term,” they also saw inflation peaking at 40%.

But it will be a bumpy path: Analysts told us that inflation is likely to rise rapidly after an expected currency devaluation but then begin a steady decline over the next few years. “The interest rate rise that will accompany [the devaluation], in addition to the base effect, will lead to a gradual decline in inflation to reach 24% on average next year and 9% in 2025, Metwally said.

Israel pushes Gaza ethnic cleansing plan in talks with EU leaders + Aid agencies plea for ceasefire amid “catastrophic” humanitarian crisis

Back ethnic cleansing in Gaza, Netanyahu urges Europeans:Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lobbying Western leaders to put pressure on Egypt to resettle displaced Palestinian refugees in the Sinai, the Financial Times reported yesterday. Sources told the newspaper that Netanyahu last week held meetings with EU officials in a bid to build support for the plan ahead of the EU summit on Thursday and Friday.

Remember: Israel has already displaced 1.4 mn civilians in Gaza, stoking fears in Cairo that it would try and drive them over the border into the Sinai. The IDF has ordered residents of Gaza City in the north to evacuate and move south due to its ground offensive.

Key countries have rejected the idea: Germany, France and the UK all rebuffed Netanyahu’s proposal as unrealistic due to Egypt’s vocal opposition. “Netanyahu pushed quite hard that the solution was for Egyptians to take Gazans at least during the conflict,” one western diplomat told the FT. “But we didn’t take it very seriously because the Egyptian position is and has always been very clear and they just won’t do it.” The US has also rejected the idea, with President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken both publicly stating their opposition.

It did find favor in some quarters: According to the FT, both Austria and the Czech Republic have been supportive of the idea, and some officials want to ramp up the pressure on Egypt. “Now the time is to put increased pressure on the Egyptians to agree,” the paper quoted one source as saying. Czechia’s top diplomat Jan Lipavsky yesterday called Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry to discuss Gaza, according to the Foreign Ministry.

The EU and Egypt are in discussions about treating injured Palestinians across the border, according to the paper. “The Turks [have] offered to establish a field hospital if necessary. We’re not planning to move field hospitals to [north Sinai] but offering to provide technical support to strengthen a referral pathway from Gaza to Egypt,” it quotes one official as saying. “[The Egyptians] established a triage facility at Rafah, and we’re still in discussions about that.”

Remember: The discussions come as the EU accelerates talks with Egypt over an economic support package aimed at preventing refugees from entering Europe. Under discussions reported by the FT earlier this month, the bloc wants to provide money to support job creation and the green transition rather than pay Egypt to keep migrants within its borders.

ISRAEL HAS A ROADMAP-

Israel’s Intelligence Ministry has drawn up a plan for forcibly transferring the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 mn population to the Sinai peninsula, according to a report picked up by the Associated Press. The document, dated six days after the Hamas attack on 7 October, recommended displacement as the best of three options available “to effect a significant change in the civilian reality” in Gaza.

Under the plans: All 2.3 mn people would be forced to live in tents in the Sinai while new cities are constructed and a “humanitarian corridor” is set up. Israel would set up a security zone to block them from reentering Gaza.

This is a red line for Egypt: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has repeatedly warned that Egypt will not tolerate any attempt to displace Gaza’s population into the Sinai.

Netanyahu played down the report: The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the report a mere “concept paper” and denied that discussions have been had with security agencies.

But Israeli officials haven’t exactly been guarded about the plans: “There is a huge expanse, almost endless space in the Sinai desert,” senior Israeli diplomat and former deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, said in an interview earlier this month. “The idea is for [the Palestinians] to leave over for the open areas where we, and the international community, will prepare the infrastructure, tent cities, with food and water … Egypt will have to play ball.”

A PLEA FOR A CEASEFIRE-

Leaders of charities and NGOs pleaded with world leaders to enforce a ceasefire in Gazayesterday to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. “An entire population is being dehumanized,” the head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) Phillipe Lazzarini told the UN Security Council at an emergency session called by the UAE. Lazzarini, as well as the head of Unicef and a senior official at the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, described the “catastrophic” situation on the ground, where hundreds of children are dying every day, clean water and medical supplies are running desperately low, and looting at UN food warehouses threatens to make it “impossible” to distribute aid.

The numbers coming out of Gaza are shocking:

“Grave violations of epic proportions”: Israel has killed more children in three weeks than died in an entire year across all the world’s conflict zones since 2019. (Save the Children).
One every 10 minutes: One child is dying in Israeli airstrikes every 10 minutes, the country director of Save the Children Palestine said yesterday. (BBC)
And 350 people every day: Some 8,260 Gazans have been killed by Israel in just 24 days. (Palestinian Health Ministry)
116 medical workers have been killed in the violence and 57 healthcare facilities have been targeted. (Gaza Health Ministry)

The responses from world leaders:

No ceasefire, says US: “We do not believe that a ceasefire is the right answer right now,” White House spokesperson John Kirby said yesterday. Speaking at the Security Council, the US’ ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that world leaders “must do everything possible” to save lives — except for ending the fighting, which she again refused to support.
Security Council ignoring the majority of the world, says UAE: Friday’s vote at the UN General Assembly is an “unambiguous call” for an immediate ceasefire which the Security Council must respect, said the UAE’s UN ambassador Lana Zaki Nusseibeh.
Humanitarian “pauses” not enough, says Russia: Russia’s UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said that Israel is inflicting a crisis of “biblical proportions” on Gaza, and renewed his call for a full ceasefire.
“Inaction” = complicity, says China: China’s ambassador, Zhang Jun, said that Israel has “turned a deaf ear” to the UN General Assembly resolution passed last week, and warned that regional peace could collapse unless both sides agree to a ceasefire. Inaction is tantamount to complicity in the bloodshed, he said.

Remember: The debate was called by the UAE a few days after the UN General Assembly passed a non-binding resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian truce, a motion which has so far gone ignored by Israel and its chief backer, the US. The debate at the General Assembly was brought by Jordan after the US vetoed several Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire.

More aid deliveries, but it’s still nowhere near enough: Twenty-six aid trucks crossed from Egypt into Gaza yesterday, the Palestinian Red Crescent said yesterday. This takes the total number of trucks to have entered Gaza since 7 October to 144, it said. Prior to the war, 500 trucks entered every day.

Beltone’s Seven to acquire stake in Jordanian fintech firm this year

Beltone’s Seven is heading to Jordan: Beltone Financial Holding’s consumer finance arm Seven is set to enter the Jordanian market before the end of the year by acquiring a USD 20 mn stake in local consumer finance firm Al Wasleh, Asharq Business reported, citing two sources it says are familiar with the matter. The sources didn’t disclose the size of the stake Beltone will be acquiring.

About Al Wasleh: Founded in 2011, the company offers installment services for SMEs, employees, university students and others. The company is a subsidiary of Amman-based business technology solutions firm Offtec Holding.

All eyes on Jordan: The news comes shortly after homegrown fintech platform Valu announced its plans to launch in Jordan by early 2024.

Beltone has plenty of dry power: The company has money to spend after closing a landmark EGP 10 bn capital increase in July, placing some 5 bn new shares on the EGX.

MPs approve fresh borrowing, oil exploration

Yesterday in the House: Our elected representatives gave their blessings to more government borrowing and another round of oil exploration in the Mediterranean, while President Abdel Fattah El Sisi signed into law bills that for the first time enables foreign companies to register as importers, and allows the government to reopen car import scheme to raise additional FX.

#1- Big bank loan approved: MPs approved the Finance Ministry’s plans to take out a seven-year, USD 500 mn loan from Deutsche Bank and the Arab Banking Corporation (Bank ABC) to support education and healthcare spending. Kuwaiti ins. company Dhaman is guaranteeing the loan.

Where the money’s going: Renovating classrooms, the universal health ins. system, and upgrading hospitals under Hayah Karima, according to an explanatory note.

Not everyone was on board: “The government does not still have the intention or the will to stop the policy of excessive borrowing, even if the new loans are expensive and with bad conditions for the future generations,” said one MP. The rate of interest on the loan has not been publicly disclosed.

Remember: Government borrowing has spiraled over the past decade — with external debt quadrupling to a record USD 165.4 bn as of March — and rising interest rates at home and abroad are making it more expensive to service. Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings have both recently downgraded our sovereign credit rating in part because of rising concerns about our ability to meet debt repayments.

Maait defends government’s borrowing policies: “The Egyptian state has always been able to pay back debts and meet financial obligations,” said Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, who pointed out that it made USD 52 bn in debt repayments during the first half of 2023.

#2- Oil exploration: MPs also authorized the Oil Ministry to contract ExxonMobil, Cheiron’s Pico Petroleum and the Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (Kufpec) to explore for oil and gas in the Mediterranean and Gulf of Suez.

ExxonMobil will invest USD 200 mn into oil and gas exploration operations at the Masryand Cairo offshore blocs in the Mediterranean, according to Asharq Business. Drilling is expected to begin in the two blocs in early 2024.
Kufpec and Pico will explore for oil at the Geisum and Tawila West concession in the Gulf of Suez. Pico owns 60% of the development lease while Kufpec holds the remaining 40%.

Also approved:

Granting an EUR 670k loan from the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation to help overhaul how the agriculture sector uses water;
Approving the establishment of the National Council for Childhood and Motherhood. The bill now awaits ratification from President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

SIGNED INTO LAW-

El Sisi signs into law importers registry, expat car-for-FX initiative amendments: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi yesterday ratified two bills recently passed by the House of Representatives, according to a decree published in the Official Gazette.

#1- Foreign investors can now become importers for a 10-year period that can be renewed once. The law will allow them to hold stakes of up to 49% in trading companies that import into Egypt, including limited liability companies, joint stock companies, and sole proprietorships. The move is part of the 22 measures drawn up by the Supreme Investment Council in May to help attract more foreign direct investment into the country.

#2- Car import scheme round 2: The second iteration of the government’s car import scheme has opened, allowing expats to import new cars tax- and customs-free provided they pay the fees in FX. Under the amendments signed into law yesterday, the scheme has been reopened for three months to give the government another opportunity to support FX reserves amid a severe FX shortage and ahead of an anticipated devaluation later this year. Expats can sign up via the government app on Google Play and the App Store.

How much FX could be raised this time? The government could raise anything between USD 450 mn and USD 1 bn via the program, a government source told us earlier this month. The government expects the first round of the program to have raised around USD 900 mn — a little over a third of the USD 2.5 bn initially targeted. It ran for six months, ending in May.

Refresher: Similar to its predecessor, the three-month initiative allows expats to receive full rebates in EGP equivalent on customs fees, VAT, and other taxes within five years of purchasing a vehicle, provided they pay them upfront in FX. Participants of the first program are ineligible to participate again. The initiative is renewable for an additional three-month period.

Oil Ministry to launch gold exploration tender early 2024

Thirteen gold exploration concessions will soon be up for grabs: The Oil Ministry plans to launch an international bid round for the exploration of gold and minerals in 13 concessions in Shalateen and Aswan, a government source told Enterprise yesterday. The tender is expected to launch at the beginning of 2024. The story was first picked up by Asharq Business.

Egypt wants to up its gold production by 5% a year to reach 1.6 mn ounces by 2031, the source said. As part of its efforts to boost gold production and attract investments, the government in 2020 switched up contracting systems to be based on a royalties model instead of the mandated revenue split between the investor and the Egyptian Mineral Resource Authority.

What about the bid round for brownfield sites? Ten companies — three local and seven international firms —- have so far submitted bids for brownfield sites in the Eastern Desert up for auction by the state-owned Shalateen Mining Company, unnamed sources told Al Borsa.The company launched the tender in May and will reportedly close the door on receiving bids on 9 November.

The conflict in Gaza and our economy dominated the nation’s talk shows last night

Diplomatic and on-the-ground developments in Gaza remained the focus of last night’s talk shows, but some of the talking heads also explored the repercussions for Egypt’s economy.

The situation in Gaza: The nation’s hosts continued to discuss Israel’s seemingly indiscriminate war on Gaza and the mounting humanitarian crises facing its people, with Kelma Akhira focussing on 12 hospitals in the enclave that have been forced to close (watch, runtime: 6:34). Al Hayah Al Youm discussed the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza (watch, runtime: 15:12), while Masaa DMC highlighted the hostage exchange that took place between Hamas and Israel (watch, runtime: 9:23).

What the Arab world can do: Palestinian National Initiative head Mustafa Barghouti told viewers on Kelma Akhira that Arab nations can support the Palestinian people by sending a joint Arab aid convoy into Gaza in the face of Israeli objections and threats and threaten to cease oil exports until the conflict in Gaza ends (watch, runtime: 8:03).

Arab Summit in KSA?Arab League Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki called into Kelma Akhira to say that preparations are underway to hold an Arab summit in Saudi Arabia next month to discuss ending the war on Gaza (watch, runtime: 11:09). Ala Masouleety also covered the potential summit (watch, runtime: 2:24).

How will the war affect oil prices and the Egyptian economy? Many of last night’s hosts explored the repercussions of the war in Gaza on oil prices and the Egyptian economy, with economist Medhat Nafei telling El Hekaya that the local economy is expected to incur direct losses of between USD 2.6-3.6 bn this fiscal year because of the war. Every increase in oil prices costs the budget, he said, adding that our tourism industry will also witness losses of USD 723 mn this fiscal year due to the departure of more than 700k Israeli tourists from the country and exports will experience a USD 1.4 bn decline (watch, runtime: 3:02 | 3:14). We have more about the repercussions of the war on our economy in the news well, above.

Also on the airwaves last night:

Car import scheme: Renewing the car import initiative presents an “opportunity” for Egyptian expats given the jump in car prices in the local market, Egyptian Association of Automobile Manufacturers head Khaled Saad said on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 6:05).
Blackouts provoke ire of MPs: MPs demanded that the government provide reasons for the extension of power outages for longer periods of time. Power outages have reached four hours in some governorates, pro-government party Mostaqbal Watan MP Mahmoud Qassem told El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 3:00).
New projects open in Sinai today, after investments of EGP 900 bn in development following a campaign to fight a terrorist insurgency in the area. Lamees El Hadidi covered the story on Kelma Akhira, reiterating the Egyptian refusal of suggestions that Palestinians could be displaced in the area from Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza (watch, runtime: 2:11).

Cement producers will up production starting tomorrow

MANUFACTURING-

Cement producers get greenlight to boost production for November: Cement producers were given the greenlight to boost production by 10% during November by the Trade Ministry, head of the cement division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries Ahmed Shireen Korayem told Al Borsa. This came in response to a request from the division following a spike in demand that local production wasn’t able to meet, which resulted in a big jump in prices. The Trade Ministry will allow for a 15% increase in production for December if high demand persists.

Remember: The Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA)earlier this year extended the cement supply cut until July 2024 at the request of cement producers who were struggling with low prices, dampened demand, and supply gut. The ECA had initially introduced a one-year 10% supply cut in 2021 after an overflowing supply of cement left many cement makers on the brink of collapse. The cut has been renewed annually since then in response to requests from cement factories.

Dubai’s taxi business to IPO next month

Dubai Taxi to IPO next month: Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority (RTA) is looking to raise USD 300 mn from listing its taxi business Dubai Taxi Corp next month, Bloomberg reported citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The company plans to pay out at least AED 71 mn (USD 19 mn) in 4Q dividends in April. The RTA is working with Citigroup, Bank of America, and Emirates NBD Capital on the offering. The transport authority is also looking to list its parking subsidiary next year.

Investors love Dubai’s transport services: The government raised some USD 1 bn from selling a 24.9% stake in its toll-road business Salik last year.

Gulf markets have been seeing a lot of IPO activity lately: Over the past two months we saw regional oil and gas giant ADES Holding and Saudi car rental firm Lumi make their Tadawul debuts and Omani state-owned gas pipeline operator OQ Gas Networks (OQGN) partake in the country’s largest ever IPO. Spinneys Dubai, Saudi water treatment firm Miahona, and Saudi’s largest medical procurement firm Nupco have also all expressed interest in making their market debuts soon.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-US is expected to issue more debt instruments over the coming months: Analysts expect the US Treasury to hike the size of bills, notes, and bonds put up for sale when it announces its quarterly refunding plan tomorrow in an effort to fund its widening budget deficit, Reuters wrote.

HSBC net income increases 2x y-o-y in 3Q 2023: HSBC’s net income after tax more than doubled to USD 6.3 bn in 3Q 2023, up USD 3.6 bn on the same period last year due to the higher interest rate environment, the bank noted in its 3Q 2023 earnings release (pdf). The bank also attributed a y-o-y 40% increase in revenues to USD 16.2 bn during the quarter to a higher interest environment.

EGX30	23,436	+1.5% (YTD: +60.5%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.83	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	19.25% deposit	20.25% lending
Tadawul	10,536	+0.5% (YTD: +0.6%)
ADX	9,285	+0.5% (YTD: -9.1%)
DFM	3,839	+1.4% (YTD: +15.1%)
S&P 500	4,167	+1.2% (YTD: +8.5%)
FTSE 100	7,327	+0.5% (YTD: -1.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,028	+0.4% (YTD: +6.2%)
Brent crude	USD 87.45	-3.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.35	-3.8%
Gold	USD 2,005.60	+0.4%
BTC	USD 34,545.93	+0.1% (YTD: +109.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.5% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 5.0 bn (111.9% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 60.5% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+11.6%), MOPCO (+11.0%) and AMOC (+5.1%).

In the red: Alexandria Containers and Goods (-4.3%), Heliopolis Housing (-4.1%) and Palm Hills Development (-3.5%).

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October-2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network, American University of Cairo.

31 October-1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

Signposted to happen some time in October:

Deadline for ins. providers to link their databases with the FRA
Egyptian-Jordanian Business Council, Amman, Jordan
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Gabal El Zeit wind plant
Saudi and Egyptian officials will meet to follow up on the project to connect the national power grids of Egypt and Saudi Arabia

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

3 November (Friday): Fitch to review Egypt’s sovereign credit rating.

5 November (Sunday): Senate back in session.

8 November (Wednesday): Turkish-Arab Economic Forum 2023, Istanbul.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

12 November (Sunday): House of Representatives to reconvene.

12 November (Sunday): Deadline for technical and financial offers for Misr Aluminium Company rehabilitation project (extended from 12 October)

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt VC Summit, Conrad Hotel.

15 November (Wednesday): Deadline for MTO to buyback Dice Sports and Casual Wear’s 46.9% Stake.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

22 November (Wednesday): Deadline to apply to FRA for credit rating license.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

Signposted to happen some time in November:

Egypt to issue Samurai bonds.
Bidding deadline for 5 gold mine concessions in the Eastern Desert (TBC).

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Friday-Sunday): Egyptian expats vote in the presidential election.

4-7 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defence Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

10-12 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Voting in presidential election takes place in Egypt.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
Gov’t expects to finalize stake sale for military-owned fuel retailer Wataniya.
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm
Kenyan trade conference in Egypt.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline for bidders for oil and gas expansion in the 23 new regions.

Q1 2024: Opening of the new developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2024

JANUARY

7 January (Sunday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Thursday): Revolution day.

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (TBC).

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day.

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

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